In response to request for the Boise/Georgia talent angle

Boise St ATS Facts

Winning ATS Record 9 of the Last 10 Years (One off year they went 6-6  2007)

26-12 ATS the last 3 years

12-4 ATS as a Road Fav the Last 3 years

37-20 as a Home Fav last 10 years

11-3 ATS vs Non-Conference Foes the last 3 years

6-1 ATS in Neutral Site games the last 7 Years

Quote Originally Posted by Boom_Boom:

Jimmy, In response to this thread I myself raise a few questions.


You say football is the ultimate team game...right? Jimmy, no other team in the country year in and year out proves that fact to be more true than Boise S.T.

You say Georgia has far superior talent across the board...right? Well, ask that to Oklahoma, Oregon, Virginia Tech, TCU...Etc,Etc.  You know what makes that statement more true that anything anyone can debate??? Boise beat all of them. Not like Appalachian S.T beating Michigan. Boise does it EVERY TIME there number is called upon.

Recruiting is bloodline of college football... right? Your correct, it is. But like myself you know that rivals and other groups giving these kids star ratings doesn't mean shit. You know how I know that? Kellen Moore was a one star " recruit ".... Hell, Gaines Adams want even given a scholarship to play at Clemson when he first came... he had to in roll as a walk on. I could go on and on with this stuff, by that's not here nor there. My point is, look at the entire team for Boise S.T.... there coach hand picked these kids to fit what he thinks a winning formula. That's what " recruiting " is, not what rivals says.


But like I have said many times...... When Boise beats Georgia it will an EXCUSE to WHY THEY DID. It wont be because they lined up and punished them. It will be an EXCUSE to WHY.


Jimmy you and I see eye to eye on everything but this subject and for whatever I cant understand why. What I do know is that every time I say Boise will perform on the big stage............they haven't ever let me down.

Football is about a lot of things.....and IMO, Boise is good at all of them.

I agree that Boise epitomizes the concept of team as well as anyone in the country.  That's why they are so successful.  I've said that many times.

Boise does it "every time" as long as you don't count the times they don't.

In the same period that Boise has 5 quality wins, Georgia has 21 quality wins, including a win over Alabama.

Recruiting services can't predict if a person they ranked as a 5* will derail their potential by robbing a convienience store with a 9mm (Janzen Jackson), but time and time again the rankings proved to be very accurate.  Let's look at the top 10 picks in this year's NFL draft and see how Rivals rated them coming out of high school.

Cam Newton 5*

Von Miller 4*

Marcell Dareus 3*

AJ Green 5*

Patrick Perterson (Johnson) 5*

Julio Jones 5*

Aldon Smith 4*

Jake Locker 4*

Tyron Smith 5*

Blaine Gabbert 5*

6 of the top 10 picks in the NFL draft were Rivals 5* recruits.  That's pretty damn accurate.  The only one they missed on was Marcel Dareus, and Rivals admitted before Dareus ever played a down of college football that they had made a mistake on him.

Knowledgable people in Alabama all thought Dareus should have been a 5*, or at the very least a high 4*.  Everyone was dumbfounded by his 3* Rivals rating.

Dareus had some of the most impressive high school film I've ever seen (aside from maybe Jadeveon Clowney).  He ran through blockers like they weren't even there.  Offensive tackles didn't even slow him down.  The point is that Dareus' potential was no secret.  Everyone who recruited him knew about his potential.  I remember the 3 recruits in that class I was most excited about was Julio Jones, Terrence Cody and Marcel Dareus.

Of course recruiting services will miss on some.  Some kids are late bloomers.  A 2* playing in the right system with the right coaching may blossom into a NFL star.  But those cases are far and few between.

On the other hand Alabama has a 5* offensive lineman (Tyler Love) who will never play a meaninngful down of football in his college career.  Those cases are also rare.  But just as there are NFL draft surpirses and bust, there are Rivals surprises and busts.  It's an inexact science.

That being said, the overall percentage of 4* & 5*s that make it big in college and the NFL are high, while the overall percentage of 2*s is extremely low.  Thus, Rivals rankings are a very good indiactor of overall talent.

I can promsie you that Boise would much rather have a roster full of 4* & 5* athletes than 2* & 3* guys if they could.  They just can't attract that kind of talent.

All coaches try to hand-pick their talent to the extent they can.  There is nothing novel about this conceptnor is Boise somehow special in that regard.

If Georgia loses this game it might be becasue of penalties, turnovers, poor coaching, and a number of other things, but it won't be due to a lack of talent.

Boise beats teams like this when they have plenty of time to prepare. Well they have had all summer to prepare and I'm sure their summer workouts (sprints, stadium stairs, weights and etc.) every rep was dedicated to beating Georgia. If this game was played mid season with only a week to prepare then I'd probably be on Georgia or it would be a no play.

Actually this is exactly like 2005 except this time the game will be in the Georgia Dome, and Boise will be -3 instead of +7.  Other than that everything is exactly the same.

The same ESPN hype telling us how Boise is for real, the same hot shot QB, the same 80% of the board buying into the hype and betting on Boise, the same posts on covers wowing us with Boise's audacious stats accumulated against high school teams, my same posts warning the board that Boise doesn't have the talent to hang with Georgia, the same Covers gurus telling me that I'm crazy for actually thinking that talent is somehow relevant.

Then in 2007 the process repeated itself when Georgia had to play another undefeated and unbeatable WAC team who also accumulated their audacious stats against high school teams.  The result was Georgia 41, Hawaii 10.  It could have been a lot worse but Georgia called off the dawgs early.

Now, as in the movie Groundhog Day, history is repeating itself again.  The storyline is exactly the same.  The same Boise team that is athletically inferior to Georgia.  The same Covers posts.  The same 80% who will lose their money because they got suckered into the hype . . . the same everything.  The result will also be the same.  Boise will still be outclassed by a SEC defense, and Boise still doesn't have the athletes to make this a competitive game.

Five years from now history will repeat itself.  We'll be sold another bill of goods by Boise or some other pretender du jour who has accumulateed audacious stats against high school caliber teams, and everyone will fall for it again.  The books will bait the hook, and bettors will attack like a school of piranha.  In the end we'll get the same predictable results.

The play is Georgia or nothing.

I agree this would be a much tougher game for Boise if it were sandwiched between their first and last games.  I disagree when you say "Boise beats teams like this."  Actually Bosie has never beaten a team like this.  In fact they've never come within 3 TDs of beating a team like this.

What do you mean?  In 2005 the moon revolved around Zebransky.  Zebransky was going to beat Georgia.  Zebransky was going to cure cancer.  Zebransky was going to feed the starving children in Africa.  Zebransky was the savior of all mankind.  Zebransky was the QB in Boise's signature win over the oft cited Oklahoma.

  Zebransky

The reason Boise lost 4 games in 2005 was because Boise had to play 3 good teams - all in the same season!!!    I know it wasn't fair to ask Boise to do what every other legitimate team in the country has to do.  Clearly this was a vast right-wing conspiracy against Boise.

It's no different than today.  If Boise played 3 good teams this year they'd probably lose all 3 as well.

Last season they only played one legitimate road game the entire season against a very mediocre Nevada team and lost!!!  They essentially had all season to prepare for a 1-game season and lost . . . and to not even to a very good team!!!

Georgia has no history of losing to WAC pretenders.

So if Boise goes undefeated in the laughable WAC that counts, but if Hawaii goes undefeated in the laughable WAC that doesn't count, even though they beat a Peterson coached Boise team by DD???  Of course it does.

The point is the propoganda channels of the mainstream media are always trying to sell us on the notion that an undefeated WAC team is somehow relevant, and that they can hang with legitimate SEC competition.  Regardless of which WAC team it is, that notion gets thoroughly debunked time after time, and will again on September 3rd in the Georgia Dome.

. . . and yes, I know Boise is in the MWC this season.

I'll bet what I have in my account prior to kickoff.  If I have enough (pending the results of earlier games), I will.

Yup Bookmaker now has it at 3.5!!!    I hope the kool aid drinkers push it higher before kickoff.  I'll most likely be on the moneyline, but the higher the number the higher the pay out.