Here are my picks for this week....my pick is on the left...home team in CAPS...once again, like a moron I'm going with all favorites and only 2 home teams...which ones do you like?
new mexico -10.5 NEVADA
texas -2.5 MISSOURI
NAVY -7 temple
WAKE FOREST -47.5 merrimack
georgia -3 MISSISSIPPI
liberty -16.5 NEW MEXICO STATE
new mexico -10.5 NEVADA
Papa Huge is back from the desert and I got a Lobo-sized stiffy for this Friday night fiasco in Reno. This ain't a football game, this is an episode of Scooby-Doo where Nevada is Old Man Jenkins in the wolf costume going "I woulda gotten away with it if it wasn't for that meddling Top-25 defense."
Let's lay out the crime scene because the numbers are hornier than Pepe Le Pew on a bender. New Mexico is 7-1, ranked #22 in the country for the FIRST TIME IN 90 YEARS. Since 1936, boys. They've been waiting longer than Ralph Kramden waiting to get Alice into the bedroom. Jason Eck has built a defense that is straight-up filthy - 11.9 points per game allowed, #1 in the entire FBS. 258 yards per game allowed - 4th in the country. 23 sacks (8th), 17 INTs, and a turnover margin of +17 which is also #1. They are playing with lights out confidence.
And who are they playing? The Nevada Wolf Pack, who offensively are more impotent than George Costanza in his parents' bed. Let's talk about this aerial circus: 53.8% completions, 8 TDs against 12 picks. My man AJ Bianco is projected for 110 yards passing Friday. 110! That's what Toa Fa'avae throws while he's tying his shoes. Carter Jones is questionable, Bianco is gimpy, Luke Duncan just threw three INTs in one quarter against UCLA like he was Oprah giving away turnovers - YOU get a pick! YOU get a pick!
You want common opponents? Nevada lost to North Dakota State 31-17 and got bitch-slapped. New Mexico BEAT North Dakota State 21-16 the next week and held them to 238 yards. Nevada just got shutout 27-0 at UCLA, 176 total yards, 65 rushing yards. They looked like Wile E. Coyote running into a painted tunnel. ACME offense, baby.
Nevada is -13 turnover margin, 138th out of 134 teams, somehow. That's mathematically more fucked up than Mr. Magoo driving at night. New Mexico is +17. That's a 30-turnover swing. You could spot Nevada two fumbles and they'd still find a way to throw it to the other team. Nevada red zone defense: 130th, allowing scores on 95.8% of trips. That's not a red zone, that's the Bunny Ranch - everybody scores. And New Mexico wants to pound it right down their throat.
Lobos have covered 10 of their last 13 (76.9% ATS) and is a perfect 13-0 straight up as a favorite. When they go on the road? 3-0 SU. Honestly, I don't need any stats. I watched Nevada's impotence last week against the Bruins. I watched Nevada play quarterback roulette and it looked like Gilligan trying to fix the radio with a coconut.
Mackay Stadium at night, 9pm on CBSS, cold, windy Reno. Perfect spot for the Lobos to show why they're a Playoff G6 darling and Nevada is just... Nevada. 3-5, 1-9 vs Top-10 teams in their FBS era.
THE PICK: New Mexico -10.5. This ends 31-10. Lobos cover and leave the Wolf Pack howling at the moon with blue balls.
Wake Forest has been a wrecking machine and they are trying to get into the conversation so I don't see them playing nice. They have scored at least 38 points in 6 of their 8 games, including 51 against Virginia and 57 against Stanford. I do not see a scenario where they score fewer than 60 points against Merrimack. So yeah, the Over might make sense.
Merrimack is ranked 216 out of 266 division 1 teams. They scored only 7 points against Delaware, and the Blue Hens let 5 of their 8 opponents score over 30 points. I think it's likely they don't see the end zone at all.
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