Friday night football in Vegas always brings something special, and this Mountain West showdown between Hawaii and UNLV carries massive conference championship implications. Both teams sit at 4-2 in league play, meaning the loser walks away with their title hopes essentially finished. UNLV comes in at 8-2 overall after surviving a wild double overtime thriller against Utah State last Saturday, while Hawaii enters at 7-3 following a bye week after dominating San Diego State 38-6 back on November 8.
Look, I get it. The Rainbow Warriors bring one of the better passing attacks you'll see anywhere in the Mountain West. Quarterback Micah Alejado has thrown for 2,380 yards this season and leads the conference in total yards per game at 343.5 when you look at league play specifically. His favorite target, Jackson Harris, has been absolutely torching defenses lately with five straight games over 100 receiving yards. Hawaii ranks ninth nationally in passing offense at just over 300 yards per game, and their red zone efficiency sits third in the entire FBS at 97.1 percent. When they get inside the twenty, they're scoring. There's no mystery there.
So why am I backing UNLV laying the three points at home? Let me walk you through this.
First thing that jumped out at me is something that should be obvious but somehow gets overlooked. Hawaii has not won in Las Vegas since 2019. They're 0-2 at Allegiant Stadium specifically. Now, I'm not one of those guys who puts too much stock in venue history, but when you're talking about a team that has to travel across the Pacific Ocean and deal with everything that comes with that trip, sometimes these things matter. There's just something about playing in this building that hasn't clicked for the Rainbow Warriors.
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Friday night football in Vegas always brings something special, and this Mountain West showdown between Hawaii and UNLV carries massive conference championship implications. Both teams sit at 4-2 in league play, meaning the loser walks away with their title hopes essentially finished. UNLV comes in at 8-2 overall after surviving a wild double overtime thriller against Utah State last Saturday, while Hawaii enters at 7-3 following a bye week after dominating San Diego State 38-6 back on November 8.
Look, I get it. The Rainbow Warriors bring one of the better passing attacks you'll see anywhere in the Mountain West. Quarterback Micah Alejado has thrown for 2,380 yards this season and leads the conference in total yards per game at 343.5 when you look at league play specifically. His favorite target, Jackson Harris, has been absolutely torching defenses lately with five straight games over 100 receiving yards. Hawaii ranks ninth nationally in passing offense at just over 300 yards per game, and their red zone efficiency sits third in the entire FBS at 97.1 percent. When they get inside the twenty, they're scoring. There's no mystery there.
So why am I backing UNLV laying the three points at home? Let me walk you through this.
First thing that jumped out at me is something that should be obvious but somehow gets overlooked. Hawaii has not won in Las Vegas since 2019. They're 0-2 at Allegiant Stadium specifically. Now, I'm not one of those guys who puts too much stock in venue history, but when you're talking about a team that has to travel across the Pacific Ocean and deal with everything that comes with that trip, sometimes these things matter. There's just something about playing in this building that hasn't clicked for the Rainbow Warriors.
But here's what really sold me on the Rebels. Their defense has completely flipped the script these last two weeks. Yeah, for most of the season UNLV has been giving up yards like they're handing out free drinks on the Strip. They allow 448.6 yards per game, which is absolutely brutal. But something happened recently. After averaging 34 points allowed per game for most of the season, UNLV has given up just 18 points per game over their last two contests. That's not just noise. That's a defense figuring things out when it matters most.
What changed? The pass rush absolutely came alive. UNLV got seven sacks against Utah State last week. Seven. They were in that backfield all night long, making life miserable. Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther spent 21 years coaching in the NFL with Dallas, Minnesota, Oakland and Cincinnati, and you can see his fingerprints all over what this unit is doing right now. They're playing aggressive, attacking football. They've racked up 14 sacks during their current three game winning streak. For a Hawaii team that relies heavily on Alejado having time in the pocket to survey the field and find his receivers, that kind of pressure could turn into a nightmare real quick.
Anthony Colandrea gives UNLV one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the conference. The guy has thrown for over 2,500 yards this season while adding 513 rushing yards on the ground. Both are career highs. Against Utah State he completed 24 of 43 passes for 276 yards and a touchdown while also punching one in with his legs. He's the kind of dual threat quarterback who keeps defensive coordinators up at night. Under new offensive coordinator Corey Dennis, the Rebels are averaging 36.6 points per game, which would break the school record if they keep it up. They're putting up 459.3 yards per game, good for 17th nationally. This offense can move the ball.
Now let's talk about the elephant in the room. Jai'Den Thomas is UNLV's leading rusher with 780 yards and nine total touchdowns. The man ranks second nationally among players with at least 100 carries at 7.57 yards per attempt. He missed last week's game with a hamstring injury and his status for Friday is up in the air. Here's how I see it though. If he plays, even at 80 percent, that's a massive advantage considering Hawaii ranks 123rd in run defense and 120th in tackling. Those are horrific numbers. And if he can't go? The Rebels showed last week they can still win without him. Sure, the backup running backs weren't as efficient as you'd like, but they found a way.
The matchup on paper obviously favors Hawaii's passing game attacking UNLV's secondary, which ranks 121st nationally in pass defense at 264.1 yards allowed per game. I'm not going to sugarcoat that. But football isn't played on paper. It's played in a stadium with 60,000 people making noise, with emotion running high, with bodies flying around. UNLV has played five games decided by one score this season and found ways to win most of them. They know how to handle tight games. They know how to make plays when their backs are against the wall. That double overtime win last week wasn't pretty, but it showed me everything I needed to know about this team's character.
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But here's what really sold me on the Rebels. Their defense has completely flipped the script these last two weeks. Yeah, for most of the season UNLV has been giving up yards like they're handing out free drinks on the Strip. They allow 448.6 yards per game, which is absolutely brutal. But something happened recently. After averaging 34 points allowed per game for most of the season, UNLV has given up just 18 points per game over their last two contests. That's not just noise. That's a defense figuring things out when it matters most.
What changed? The pass rush absolutely came alive. UNLV got seven sacks against Utah State last week. Seven. They were in that backfield all night long, making life miserable. Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther spent 21 years coaching in the NFL with Dallas, Minnesota, Oakland and Cincinnati, and you can see his fingerprints all over what this unit is doing right now. They're playing aggressive, attacking football. They've racked up 14 sacks during their current three game winning streak. For a Hawaii team that relies heavily on Alejado having time in the pocket to survey the field and find his receivers, that kind of pressure could turn into a nightmare real quick.
Anthony Colandrea gives UNLV one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the conference. The guy has thrown for over 2,500 yards this season while adding 513 rushing yards on the ground. Both are career highs. Against Utah State he completed 24 of 43 passes for 276 yards and a touchdown while also punching one in with his legs. He's the kind of dual threat quarterback who keeps defensive coordinators up at night. Under new offensive coordinator Corey Dennis, the Rebels are averaging 36.6 points per game, which would break the school record if they keep it up. They're putting up 459.3 yards per game, good for 17th nationally. This offense can move the ball.
Now let's talk about the elephant in the room. Jai'Den Thomas is UNLV's leading rusher with 780 yards and nine total touchdowns. The man ranks second nationally among players with at least 100 carries at 7.57 yards per attempt. He missed last week's game with a hamstring injury and his status for Friday is up in the air. Here's how I see it though. If he plays, even at 80 percent, that's a massive advantage considering Hawaii ranks 123rd in run defense and 120th in tackling. Those are horrific numbers. And if he can't go? The Rebels showed last week they can still win without him. Sure, the backup running backs weren't as efficient as you'd like, but they found a way.
The matchup on paper obviously favors Hawaii's passing game attacking UNLV's secondary, which ranks 121st nationally in pass defense at 264.1 yards allowed per game. I'm not going to sugarcoat that. But football isn't played on paper. It's played in a stadium with 60,000 people making noise, with emotion running high, with bodies flying around. UNLV has played five games decided by one score this season and found ways to win most of them. They know how to handle tight games. They know how to make plays when their backs are against the wall. That double overtime win last week wasn't pretty, but it showed me everything I needed to know about this team's character.
Hawaii comes in well rested after the bye week, which is definitely worth considering. But they also haven't played in two weeks. Sometimes rust is real, especially for a passing game that relies on timing and rhythm. UNLV is battle tested and coming off a game where they had to grind out a win in the most stressful way imaginable. That kind of experience matters in November football when everything is on the line.
The Rebels also boast a plus seven turnover margin on the season, ranking 19th in the country with 18 forced turnovers. Hawaii has created takeaways in eight of their ten games, which is solid, but they've also been careless with the ball themselves. They're sitting at minus four in turnover margin. In a game this important with conference championship implications hanging in the balance, one or two turnovers could be the difference between celebrating and packing it in for the season. UNLV has proven they can create those game changing moments.
There's also the reality that UNLV is simply the more balanced offense. Hawaii ranks 12th worst in the country in rushing at just 105.2 yards per game. They're almost entirely dependent on the passing game, which makes them predictable. If you can get consistent pressure on Alejado and force him to get rid of the ball quickly, you can neutralize their biggest strength. UNLV can hurt you in multiple ways. Through the air with Colandrea and receivers like Jaden Bradley, who has 712 yards on the season. On the ground with Thomas if he's available, or with the combination of Keyvone Lee and Jaylon Glover if he's not.
I'll give Hawaii credit where it's due. Their kicker Kansei Matsuzawa has made all 22 of his field goal attempts this season. That's legitimately impressive and gives them a reliable weapon whenever they get into scoring position. But in a game where UNLV should be able to move the ball consistently and put up points, having a great kicker only matters if the game stays close enough for field goals to make a difference.
This game is going to be competitive. I'm not calling for a blowout. Both offenses can score. Both defenses have clear vulnerabilities you can attack. But when I add it all up, UNLV's home field advantage, their recent defensive surge with that pass rush coming alive, Hawaii's 0-2 record at Allegiant Stadium, and the Rebels' proven ability to win close games, laying three points with the home team feels like the smart play. UNLV has won two straight and is playing their best football when it matters most. That's exactly what you want in late November when championships are decided.
Give me UNLV -3
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Hawaii comes in well rested after the bye week, which is definitely worth considering. But they also haven't played in two weeks. Sometimes rust is real, especially for a passing game that relies on timing and rhythm. UNLV is battle tested and coming off a game where they had to grind out a win in the most stressful way imaginable. That kind of experience matters in November football when everything is on the line.
The Rebels also boast a plus seven turnover margin on the season, ranking 19th in the country with 18 forced turnovers. Hawaii has created takeaways in eight of their ten games, which is solid, but they've also been careless with the ball themselves. They're sitting at minus four in turnover margin. In a game this important with conference championship implications hanging in the balance, one or two turnovers could be the difference between celebrating and packing it in for the season. UNLV has proven they can create those game changing moments.
There's also the reality that UNLV is simply the more balanced offense. Hawaii ranks 12th worst in the country in rushing at just 105.2 yards per game. They're almost entirely dependent on the passing game, which makes them predictable. If you can get consistent pressure on Alejado and force him to get rid of the ball quickly, you can neutralize their biggest strength. UNLV can hurt you in multiple ways. Through the air with Colandrea and receivers like Jaden Bradley, who has 712 yards on the season. On the ground with Thomas if he's available, or with the combination of Keyvone Lee and Jaylon Glover if he's not.
I'll give Hawaii credit where it's due. Their kicker Kansei Matsuzawa has made all 22 of his field goal attempts this season. That's legitimately impressive and gives them a reliable weapon whenever they get into scoring position. But in a game where UNLV should be able to move the ball consistently and put up points, having a great kicker only matters if the game stays close enough for field goals to make a difference.
This game is going to be competitive. I'm not calling for a blowout. Both offenses can score. Both defenses have clear vulnerabilities you can attack. But when I add it all up, UNLV's home field advantage, their recent defensive surge with that pass rush coming alive, Hawaii's 0-2 record at Allegiant Stadium, and the Rebels' proven ability to win close games, laying three points with the home team feels like the smart play. UNLV has won two straight and is playing their best football when it matters most. That's exactly what you want in late November when championships are decided.
My name is Lawrence Mizzi, and I am a seasoned sports analyst and oddsmaker with a proven track record at several of Europe's leading betting corporations. For years, I was on the other side of the counter, setting the lines and understanding the intricate mechanics of the sports betting market. Now, I leverage that invaluable insider experience and my extensive network within the sports industry to provide premium, professional advisory services. My specialization lies in soccer and American sports, where my deep analytical approach uncovers value and opportunity that others miss. My mission is straightforward: to transform my expertise into a tangible financial advantage for my clients. I provide them with the high-quality, data-driven information necessary to make informed decisions and achieve sustained success.
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My name is Lawrence Mizzi, and I am a seasoned sports analyst and oddsmaker with a proven track record at several of Europe's leading betting corporations. For years, I was on the other side of the counter, setting the lines and understanding the intricate mechanics of the sports betting market. Now, I leverage that invaluable insider experience and my extensive network within the sports industry to provide premium, professional advisory services. My specialization lies in soccer and American sports, where my deep analytical approach uncovers value and opportunity that others miss. My mission is straightforward: to transform my expertise into a tangible financial advantage for my clients. I provide them with the high-quality, data-driven information necessary to make informed decisions and achieve sustained success.
Make sure to check out my website where I drop a free pick every single day. Sometimes you can even score a 100% free lock - that's your ticket to risk-free money!
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Quote Originally Posted by Velentonis:
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