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Freak Pics!!! (Week 4)

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WISEGUY36

Legend

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 34171

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 2:50 PM ET #301

Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Arizona @ Oregon OVER

I absolutely hate playing over huge totals like we had in this game, which is why I virtually never do it. I have people asking all the time what I think about playing over in games that have 70+ numbers, and I pretty much always recommend staying away. Personally I can't ever recall hitting one of these bets, and Saturday night was no different. For completely eschewing my basic betting principles, I have no choice but to grade this play a failure.

Grade for this Play: F

Jimmy, This would have hit if Zona's O performed like they should..
They had plenty of opportunities in the Red zone and came up
short.I had Zona + 24, and they got me as well.Hopefully Zona's
QB got an education in this game.

Let's get em this week.

Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.

thekeynone

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 737

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 3:15 PM ET #302

Cheer up Freak! Ignore all the haters and just continue to do what you do. Many (including me) have been doing this long enough to know that you will have some bad days too. These haters will not be here is their picks were making them money!

Looking forward to your picks again this week!!!!

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 3:17 PM ET #303

Quote Originally Posted by jackson6:

JIMMY IGNORE THE HATERS

FIRST WEEK CHASING YOU AND I LOST. IT WAS MY DECISION!!!

Just a thought. I see a lot of your picks triple whammy one game, like washington first half, washington over on score, washington game, etc.

Isnt it better to just whack one part of that, which probably has the highest chance of winning since we are paying a percentage for every bet.

BTW i love how you have your best bet. Good stuff

You point is well taken, but there are a couple of reasons for this. First of all, last season I don't believe I posted a single team total bet the entire season, yet I bet UNDER on every available team total for Alabama's opponents last season, and I think I hit everyone of them. Some posters complained because I didn't post them, and the reason I haven't posted team totals in the past is because Bookmaker puts them out soooooooo late. They usually put them out about two hours before kickoff, so it's difficult to post a play that is not even out yet. This season I decided to post my TT plays, but notice I list all the TT lines as "estimates." That's because they aren't out yet at my book.

I didn't post the Washington State (1st half) as a play, although I almost played that on my own. Too bad I didn't because the 1st half line covered. The 1st half lines also cover in the Maryland/West Virginia and Miami/Georgia Tech games. But rarely do I ever bet both the 1st half and the game. It's one or the other, which ever I think is the better play.

Team totals are a different ballgame altogether. Books handle these bets as "props" so the only thing you can do is bet those straight, and the betting limits are very low.

I don't always bet a team total along with the game unless I think it's a really good play. For example, I liked West Virginia -25 this weekend. What I was most confident about in that play, however, was West Virginia's ability to score a lot of points. Fearing a possible backdoor by Maryland, I decided to play the total instead. But just in case Maryland didn't score a lot, I thought the West Virginia team total was also a a very strong play. Of course I was wrong about this game, but that was my thought process.

That said, I will continue to post team total bets when I like them. If you like it, play it. If not, don't. You certainly don't have to play everything I post. Just look at it as a buffet. Take what you want. Leave what you don't.

Quote Originally Posted by jackson6:

JIMMY IGNORE THE HATERS

FIRST WEEK CHASING YOU AND I LOST. IT WAS MY DECISION!!!

Just a thought. I see a lot of your picks triple whammy one game, like washington first half, washington over on score, washington game, etc.

Isnt it better to just whack one part of that, which probably has the highest chance of winning since we are paying a percentage for every bet.

BTW i love how you have your best bet. Good stuff

eddothebook

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 1320

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 3:33 PM ET #304

Haha OMG wall of text + grades on plays after the game is over.

Laroja

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 12241

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 3:41 PM ET #305

I also had the 59 over in the WVU/Maryland game, a loss is a loss but I def play the over in a game like that again. And in regards to gambling, you win some and lose some; that's just how it is. Your still one of the best cappers on this forum. LSU' QB got exposed last night, can't move outside the pocket at all and holds on to the ball for way too long. LSU is in for some serious shit against Alabama if Mettenburger can't throw the ball against the Tide. GOY lines opened LSU as a 3 points fav against Alabama and I'm interesting to see where the line will open up. The game should come down to three things: LSU D-line vs Bama' O-line; Mettenburger' ablilty to throw the ball; and special teams in terms of deciding field position.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 3:42 PM ET #306

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

I'm looking forward to their meeting with ' Bama.

I am too of course, but based on what I saw in the Auburn game, I think LSU is in trouble. LSU played a very sloppy game against Auburn. Had they played cleanly, no doubt they would have won much more decisively. There is also no doubt that LSU will bring their "A" game for Alabama, so it will certainly will be Alabama's toughest game of the season.

I have been comparing Zach Mettenberger to Ryan Mallet for nearly a year now, so I got a kick out of Gary Danielson doing the same during the LSU/Auburn broadcast. I have also jokingly referred to him as the "Pillsbury Throw Boy." I've done so because I've seen him play and, Like Mallet, he is very tall, has a huge arm, but lacks mobility. Alabama's AJ McCarron has this problem a little as well. That's why during the QB battle last season I preferred Phillip Sims over McCarron, because he is much more adept at making plays when things breakdown. McCarron has improved that area of his game a lot, but he's still no Phillip Sims. Overall I just think Sims has more upside than McCarron.

Anyhow, Mettenberger is the type of QB that plays right into the teeth of Alabama's defense because he is simply not athletic enough to improvise and make plays in the face of a heavy pass rush. This will allow Alabama's front 7 to pin their ears back and rush to a spot. Containment is really not an issue like it was for Denard Robinson.

Alabama's front 7 is a little smaller than it was last season, so LSU might have a little more success running the ball. But overall I don't think Mettenberger is the huge upgrade that LSU fans were hoping for at QB. Accordingly, I think offensively LSU is still largely a 1-dimensional offense, and I just don't see Alabama getting beat by a 1-dimensional offense.

I will like Alabama a lot at anything under 7.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 3:47 PM ET #307

Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

Jimmy, This would have hit if Zona's O performed like they should..
They had plenty of opportunities in the Red zone and came up
short.I had Zona + 24, and they got me as well.Hopefully Zona's
QB got an education in this game.

Let's get em this week.

Yeah, I was able to catch most of that game, but still betting OVER 78.5 is a foolishness. I still needed more than 4 TDs to cover that bet.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 3:58 PM ET #308

Quote Originally Posted by thekeynone:

Looking forward to your picks again this week!!!!

I'm fine, I keep hearing bout all the haters, but haven't seen them yet. I really don't have time to scroll back and read 6 pages of posts, so I guess I won't ever find out either!!!

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 4:04 PM ET #309

Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:

I also had the 59 over in the WVU/Maryland game, a loss is a loss but I def play the over in a game like that again. And in regards to gambling, you win some and lose some; that's just how it is. Your still one of the best cappers on this forum. LSU' QB got exposed last night, can't move outside the pocket at all and holds on to the ball for way too long. LSU is in for some serious shit against Alabama if Mettenburger can't throw the ball against the Tide. GOY lines opened LSU as a 3 points fav against Alabama and I'm interesting to see where the line will open up. The game should come down to three things: LSU D-line vs Bama' O-line; Mettenburger' ablilty to throw the ball; and special teams in terms of deciding field position.

I agree with everything you said. Look at the post right underneath yours (Post #306) where I pretty much echo your thoughts. I honestly do not see any one-dimensional offense beating Alabama, and from what I've seen LSU's offense is still pretty much one-dimensional.

That said, LSU played a very sloppy, mistake-filled game against Auburn. I know they are capable of playing much better, but right now I don't I'm not even sure if their best is good enough.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 4:06 PM ET #310

Quote Originally Posted by eddothebook:

Haha OMG wall of text + grades on plays after the game is over.

Are you one of these "haters" that others speak of???

onthemound#5

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 1386

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 4:23 PM ET #311

Yep typical BAMMER Thats Soooooooooooo Funny!!!!!!

WE'S got 400 national championships and WE'S the best in the world!!

Who is WE???? You ever played a down of College football??

I WOULD"VE Won if.................. Son of a ..... Give me a break!!!

BAMMER hasnt played any team with an offense in more than 2 years and the best team that they have played in 2 years is LSU(no offense last year) and they are 1 and 1 against them!! Get a bammer schedule and you can win!! They werent the best team last year and wont be this year!! Pay back for a DO OVER will be a MFer!! Keep playing those pitiful schedules and acting tuff!!

LSU played a much superior schedule last year and was the National Champion of course! You cant play that pitiful azz schedule Bammer played and win one game(A DO OVER AT THAT) and be a "national" Champ!! Geez what has sports come to?? Kissing short little smart azz turds like sabans azz!! Give me a break!!

Laroja

All-Star

Joined: Sep, 2010

Posts: 12241

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 4:36 PM ET #312

I also can't see Alabama as a Fav at Baton Rouge during the night.

bigkumu

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 76

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 4:45 PM ET #313

Jimmy,
I watched the LSU game and realized....I miss the honey badger.

trackem

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2008

Posts: 1228

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 4:57 PM ET #314

Laroja, if Bama is getting points in Baton Rouge, consider me all in.

Galbino

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 88

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 5:19 PM ET #315

Jimmy Keep doing what your doing bro. I cashed in with your wed/thur/fri picks. Kent St ML - BYU +7.5 and ULM +7.5. Lost some coin this weekend. But I'm still up thanks to that parlay. Thanks again man. Can't wait for this weekend.

milagrosman

Rookie

Joined: Sep, 2012

Posts: 631

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 5:31 PM ET #316

Jimmy
New here on covers but really do like reading your info on picks and like you said there is always one day when things go the other way.
There are no failures in this...just a stepping stone to do better the next time around..
In regards to sites posting totals...5Dimes usually has them out by
Wed and no later than Thurs...
Thanks again for sharing.
Best of luck on future ventures

kroch

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 794

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 6:04 PM ET #317

Jimmy-

Here's to a rebound week. The books caught up this past week imo.

TCU is going to be a great fade going forward. This team is going to lose a lot of games this year. Keep an eye out on their date with Iowa State in two weeks to begin with after they torch SMU. They could lose 6-7 games and it just gets worse with their schedule and the wear of a BCS conference. This team is really not very good.

Love Texas this week, but somehow I think 2-3 is a bit short. Surprised they opened us as a dog. Any thoughts?

BiggdaddySHY

Veteran

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 1192

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 6:22 PM ET #318

Bama LSU match-up scares me even more now...

warcameagle56

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 5418

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 7:42 PM ET #319

Grading ur plays...I mean really..here are my grades that have no value..last week d-..season B...My dad always said if they are talking about u...I dont like doing many half totals...I maybe look at 1st half side and a couple of 2nd half totals..Its hard enough capping games,but it does feel good when u get a steal on board 1st and 2nd half...This is my 24th season I believe and best advice I got from a guy named Hammer I met at Caliente Sportsbook in Tijuana..was watch as many as games as u can and if u dont like a play on the board dont play..He bet 2k a game..never more never less..no parlays..played some teasers.no halves..prob played 4-5 plays every Sat-Sun combined..I was 18 and he was 50..he played footb.baskets,baseball...nothing else and 3 seasons I saw him RAKE..kept it very simple..I go back n forth on amount bc both have worked..

dkite22

Rookie

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 505

Posted: Sep. 24, 2012 - 9:57 PM ET #320

Jimmy, you mentioned that you post at another forum. Are you allowed to tell us where that is? thanks man

Carolinashaun

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 699

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 12:46 AM ET #321

Jimmy,

You said it best at the end of the season all that matters is your bank roll. Keep doing your thing brother. Get um next week and let the haters follow someone else. They will be done by week six anyway. It always thins out around here by week 6 eery year.

eddothebook

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2011

Posts: 1320

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 12:48 AM ET #322

Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

Are you one of these "haters" that others speak of???

Hate is such a strong word. I make fun of idiots and posers every year. There is always one clown who runs on a heaters and has everyone's chins on his scrotum until these chins keep piling up and BAM, 2-12, 1-11, 3-9,...

MGD

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 1529

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 1:09 AM ET #323

Eddothebookofmorons... If you have been doing what you do for years, yet are +/- 9 months on the site... You must be one of these alias jack asses... Crawl back in your hole and to quote Train... choke on a dick!

Jimmy, keep up the great work, one tough week will not define your season... Tell me about your thoughts on fading Whisky this week in Lincoln, seems like a strong play!! GL

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 1:20 AM ET #324

Quote Originally Posted by Laroja:

I also can't see Alabama as a Fav at Baton Rouge during the night.

Yeah, I don't see that either. If so, it'll be one of my biggest bets of the year.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Sep. 25, 2012 - 1:21 AM ET #325

Quote Originally Posted by bigkumu:

Jimmy,
I watched the LSU game and realized....I miss the honey badger.

I'm not a Honey Badger fan. I think he's right where he should be, out of college football.

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