Posted:
#51
Good ListI have posted as well...
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Forum Consensus Picks - Cappers
Posted:
#52
Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH:
Bigdaddy that is an awsome post,god bless.
The definition of a good capper is one who consistantly wins over a given period of time. That time range should be a minimum of 5 years. I look to a 10 year track record before I make any decisions. The percentage is going to differ. I have been doing this for many a year, and average around 58-59%. Some years are better. Others are worse. I rarely dip below the 53% range, and rarely climb above the 60% range. I am rather consistant in my plays. I do not look to make one giant killing in each year. I look to nickel and dime my way into a nice profit. Normally, I set a goal, and the closer I come to attaiing that goal (which is a monetary goal which equates toi about 57%), the less I wager.
Being a gambler in ALL facets of gaming, I find that the general rules that I use in playing the tables, the horses, or sports wagering do not change. I always look to start banking my winnings after I get to a certain percentage ahead of the game.
John D. McDonalds wrote a book many years ago called "Strategies in Poker, Business and War." In it, he shows how the same basic stragegies are used in all three facets of life. One of the strategies is to gain the most profit while risking the least amount of money. That involves a lot of study into the laws of probability, or "odds" in the case of gaming. I have followed that strategy for over 40 years, and it has paid very nice dividens for me.
So to define a good capper, the first thing the capper should have is a 10 year history of success. That does not mean winning every year, because few people do that. It take a tremendous amount of self discipline to do that, and few gamblers have that. It is that lack of discipline that pays for all of those neon lights and pretty ladies who serve you drinks in the casinos of the Las Vegas Hotels. As far as a percentage goes, realistically anything over 56% is good, and profitable. I am quite satisfied with my 58-59% winning ratio.
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Posted:
#53
good points bigdaddy, you also ask for what even you likely cannot deliver - a documented 58-59% over 10 years - not saying you haven't or care really (not that far under that myself and some others around here as well) just that without any documenting site it doesn't mean much
tend to have more belief in your claim than the other thousands of previous posters claiming certain undocumented milestones and then quit posting after 2 months with a .500 record, you sound like an experienced more than likely profitable capper
since you mention 58-59% as 'your' ratio and often refer to the cartel - are those your picks exclusively or assistance from the cartel - how do you distinguish between I and 'we' - there's a difference between picking on your own and succesfully ending up with the right team via a group effort, similar how manifesto consensus hit 33-10 last year from 12 cappers even if you're one of the members of the cartel, just wondering
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Posted:
#54
BD- It always lets out the possibvle "new system" or idea.
Bill Gates got kicked out of Harvard. He had no 10yrs of greatness, How did his "model" work out. Pretty good system.
If your #'s work, or strike at the right time, like some, its all you need. He put his life into an idea. Say I did the same with the right plays?
And Nostra brings up a great pt, your plays are "suppose to be" yours. If you work with say 2 other people, I have to see their #'s as well.
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Posted:
#61
Quote Originally Posted by manifesto:
Nice.OK so here are guys I have heard from or seen posting already:
Bibendi
Bigeastexpert
DoubleUp4Life
Ice4Blood
Nostradamus12
WahooS
Whodeysb69
Others I plan to include but have not heard from or seen posts. If anyone knows these guys or can contact them it would be appreciated.
Badlands
CaptainHawaiin
Pucku27
Tree88
Payne034
And I will likely add a few more once I confirm if these guys are posting or not. I hope no one will get offended if they feel they should have been included and are not. It gets unmanageable if the list gets much bigger than 12. But I will certainly be tracking for additions and subtractions as the season progresses and I am always open to comments or suggestions to improve things.
Solid cappers IMO.
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Posted:
#68
Bigdaddy, do not know who the so called other guy is, but I bet either with or agaisnt the number that is posted, which I assume is what other cappers do. Or I do not have to bet on a game. For most of us who go through a book, or casino we do not bet agaisnt some other guy, but wether a team can cover a spread or not, then using the information one has makes the play or does not make a play, on the team. In all honestily, do not mind reading your posts, even get a kick out some guys hating on you, and then you come back. Give you cred there, but capping is not betting agaisnt some other guy, it is figuring which team has value and if that value can be used to your advantage. GOOD LUCK THIS YEAR
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Posted:
#69
The way I see it....Most of everyone on here, don't spend hours upon hours, dayz, weeks and so on reading, researching, numbers for nothing....so just to make the selection seems unfit...or if you just like to throw money around isn't the case either.....College football is all I do ( I do bet other sports but usually "My" teams).....The passion, Pride, and Will to WIN will take you to another level as well....Experience - Knowledge is King....where sometimes you read so much about players/coaches;watch so many games, you can read those people that much more...know which horse to ride. and Know who can rise to the occasion.
Study something long enough and you can master your studies.
Good Luck All
Study something long enough and you can master your studies.
Good Luck All
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Posted:
#70
I Am a big follower of a couple of the people online and really loved your consesus idea when you came out with it last year. The only problem i ran into as a better who follows others good picks (i can't pick college to save my life) is that it felt like by the time i got a hold of the consen picks the lines had always moved enough to scare me. I no there is not really a possible solution but if you could find out how to mabey get the picks earlier it would benifit all of us on here who are trying to find the best picks.
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Posted:
#72
Quote Originally Posted by chris997:
I Am a big follower of a couple of the people online and really loved your consesus idea when you came out with it last year. The only problem i ran into as a better who follows others good picks (i can't pick college to save my life) is that it felt like by the time i got a hold of the consen picks the lines had always moved enough to scare me. I no there is not really a possible solution but if you could find out how to mabey get the picks earlier it would benifit all of us on here who are trying to find the best picks.
i can try to address this, because it is a pretty black and white issue...
first of all, if i remember correctly, there was not a single game last year from the consensus thread that would have had a different result if you had bet it with the line the cappers jumped on or if you had bet it when it was posted by Manifesto... the key word is that the number "scared you off"... but the reality is, that was your own fault... the cappers provide the picks... they can't keep the number in place for you... trust the players... don't sweat the number!
second, it is simply not going to happen... this is a consensus thread... many of these cappers wait to make their picks on Thursday or Friday... there is no way for Manifesto to get them early...
just roll with it... you can always go around searching the cappers threads and pages just like Manifesto... but i'm pretty sure none of these guys are going out of their way to get the picks to Festo early...
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Posted:
#73
just roll with it... you can always go around searching the cappers threads and pages just like Manifesto... but i'm pretty sure none of these guys are going out of their way to get the picks to Festo early...
One can always hope 
YOur right i probably was a big box on the numbers, not letting it affect the my picks again this year. a point can be big but I rarley would have lost a game because of it
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Posted:
#74
Really excellent thread here guys.
I, too, cannot remember a single play last year from the consensus thread where the outcome would have differed depending on whether or not you caught the line before it moved. Not to say it wouldn't happen this year, but probably only very rarely if at all because by nature of the consensus selection process, the plays are vetted/scrutinized so carefully by very sharp players that it usually just isn't that close.
But here is something that VERY DEFINITELY can affect the viability of playing the consensus plays - and that is the TIMING of the release of plays by the participating cappers.
Now, I'm not talking about what Ice mentioned above with them releasing on thursday or friday for saturday games, that's perfectly reasonable and am totally cool with that.
But last year, on several occasions that I can recall, there were a few cappers' opinions on games very, very late, as in only an hour or two before kickoff. Thus, unless you're glued to the computer with nothing else to do in your life, it was very possible to either miss a consensus selection that only qualified due to a late submission or, worse still, have a qualifying pick that you might have just placed a bet on nullified by a very late opinion against that selection - which completely sucks.
We all know Festo has no control over the cappers here, he has more than enough on his hands to accurately record the picks and post them and they're gonna do what they're gonna do. But for the overall viability of the thread and participation by all, I would like to suggest, or request, that to the extent possible, those cappers that are invited to participate make their selections by the evening before the games, i.e., by wed nite for thu games, fri nite for sat games, etc. again, if at all possible. Understanding of course there can sometimes be unusual or extenuating circumstances where it may not be, but just as a rule.
This just makes it work better for everyone so if you want to fade, you can get down on or, alternatively, not get burned by, selections that qualify or disqualify just hours or minutes before kickoff. I would think it would help Festo to, in compiling the numbers.
Does this make sense? Does anyone disagree or is this not possible for any of the invited cappers? thx in advance...
gwjtf
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Posted:
#75
Quote Originally Posted by nostradamus12:
good points bigdaddy, you also ask for what even you likely cannot deliver - a documented 58-59% over 10 years - not saying you haven't or care really (not that far under that myself and some others around here as well) just that without any documenting site it doesn't mean much
tend to have more belief in your claim than the other thousands of previous posters claiming certain undocumented milestones and then quit posting after 2 months with a .500 record, you sound like an experienced more than likely profitable capper
since you mention 58-59% as 'your' ratio and often refer to the cartel - are those your picks exclusively or assistance from the cartel - how do you distinguish between I and 'we' - there's a difference between picking on your own and succesfully ending up with the right team via a group effort, similar how manifesto consensus hit 33-10 last year from 12 cappers even if you're one of the members of the cartel, just wondering
Actually, I do have is a record of every wager I have made since 1971. It would be a major pain in the tail to reproduce that, much less to drag out all the old ledgers that I have tucked away somewheres, but I guess I could. The last time I did it was a couple of years ago, and that is how I got my 58+% average.
Cartels started to gain popularity in the 90's, before off shore wagering became what it is today. Basically, the few well known cartels were from the New York-New Jersey area. I will not get into all of the reasonings behind Cartels, but in an age of wagering being limited to Vegas and your "local", you can figure out some of the reasons why they were formed. They eventually evolved because of the "favors" that were accorded to them, such as "lead" wagering (wagering before the line is made public) a bunch of perks, and the ability of getting wagers down without the hassle of having to be in Vegas, or near a computer. I know of many people in cartels who simply do not trust off shore books, because they can fold in a second, and are often being "looked at" by the feds.
I bacame a part of a Cartel around 2000, at the suggestion of a well known tout, who suggested to myself and a bunch of other gamblers who wagered a lot, that we form a cartel and get in on the perks. Our rules are simple. We "vote" (for lack of a better term) on which games we will wager on. It has to be a unanimous vote, or the game is not played. We can strike out on our own, but to be honest, the group hs done so well that it would be rather foolish to do so. Part of our secret is the fact that all of us have either worked in the business, or know/knew some of the higher ups in the business. We all paid our dues, and we all learned our lessons well. The group has never lost money, and last year was one of our more profitable years. Oddly enough, as the years have drawn on, we find ourselves wagering on more college than pro. Colleges are easier to predict, because for the most part, you always get the effort out of the players. They are the kids who want to sign the three year, 36 million dollar contracts. The problem with the pros is that after 8 games, some of the teams are already retooling for the following season. In the colleges, there are so many bowl games that just about anyone has a shot of making abowl going into November.
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