CFB 12/27: One Texas team will win and one will lose

CFB YTD 8-10 +1.85 units

4* GOY 1-0 +4.0 units

3* 1-0 +3.0 units

1* 6-10 -5.15 units

Bowls 2-1 +5.9 units

After wining my GOY on Ark State, I pulled a rabbit out and won my 3* on Christmas Eve on Hawaii.   Two bowl plays for Saturday:

1* San Diego State +5 1/2

SD State has a tremendous defense and North Texas has a lightning offense.  By contrast, SD State's offense is just awful while NT's defense is a disaster.  I'm taking SD State because NT's head coach has quit and the QB won't play and has hit the portal.  Speculation that numerous NT players are transferring and will try to follow the coach to Arkansas.   SD State's QB is also out and that drove the line up this week but the reality is the QB wasn't very good so how much does his loss matter?  NT's run defense is very bad and I suspect SD State will try to pound the ball.  It's expected to be cool and rainy in Albuquerque which points to defense.   

1*  Houston -2 1/2

Monster coaching edge here as Houston's Willie Fritz is great (turned Houston around in two years after excelling at Tulane) while LSU has an interim coach and much of the staff will likely be gone once Kiffin takes over.   Multiple opt-outs for LSU.  Houston has coaching stability and a chance at a ten-win season.  Big QB edge for Houston as Conner Weigman is pretty good and LSU has an inexperienced backup.   LSU's offense stunk all year and they finished the season 3-5 SU.   Fritz has an excellent bowl record of 4-1 covering his time at Georgia Southern and Tulane.  Houston went from 4-8 last year to 9-3 this year and will be highly motivated to finish an excellent season on a high note.