BRIDGE PRE-SSN 2024

Thanks, Bridge, for all your hard work pre season. Are you finished with season totals? Good luck to you. 

@robtri

maybe idk theres a few id like to play but im just not dying to tie up more money for the season and I only post ones im playing .. But it does feel like i need to put some more 'Unders' up there though huh?.. lol .. let's see who gets uglied up in fall camp w injuries or otherwise just dont sound all that great, i do have a couple teams on my radar that might fall apart this yr .. 

OK Here ya go.. 

PITT UNDER 5.5 -125 (CZRs)

Was wanting to hit this one after seeing their spring game and its still 5.5 but maybe a tad more juice .. would shop around you'll find this as high as -145 .. end of the day Narduzzi just not good at picking offensive coordinators and they're bringing in I think the guy from W.Carolina in FCS and this might work at some schools but just looking at the spring gm it was maybe like 40/50 plays were total duds with alot going backward and a few with the D guys slipping or something one of the worst spring game offenses i've seen .. and not so much the D was good just guys looking like the tryout scene in Major League .. this might firm up a little but not hearing much different in fall camp reports 'defense dominating' both scrimmages is probably code for 'Offense suuuuucks' and think the QB options aren't very good, we'll see they reallly need Nate Yarnell to step up .. maybe Eli Holstein the bama xfer is a surprise that we don't wanna see .. both still competing in camp .. may not matter the OL is probably a big problem for them again .. We know Narduzzi always puts a good D out there, just looking over the roster they have some real questionable spots had a big injury with one of their best edge rushers Nate Temple out for the year and best Edge Dayon Hayes jumped ship in the 2nd portal window to Colorado .. LB and maybe CB looks okay but safety needs a whole unit of guys to step up edge and DL .. not many over 300LB's on the DL .. iffy kicker last year punter stunk both back .. So many iffy units that I can only wonder how far away they are from not being competitive in the bottom 3rd of the ACC which is a myriad of real iffy teams .. 

Schedule maybe the saving grace for them, Kent State, Y-Town, UVA are at home .. but UVA is semi on my 'maybe not horrible' list and lose that one I think we take this home .. there is Cal with a big trip to Pitt maybe lights are too bright .. Cuse is a big rivalry gunna be @Pitt .. think they need to win @Cincy or WVA but I think they get beat easy in those .. maybe comes down to winning @BC in the finale but its a payback spot for BC and funny feeling they'll might need that for a bowl game .. I think Pitt shows up to that one w 3 or 4 wins and we're already stackin chips .. good luck! .. PITT SUUUUCKS!!!!

SSN WINS

MICHIGAN UNDER 9 -140

Could land on 9 so not trying to put toooo much up here plus the juice is annoying at this point .. but I think they do get losses vs Texas, Oregon and Ohio State so doesnt feel like a ton of risk here .. It's not a big mystery why I'm taking this one we're off the MASSIVE NATTY RUN and hard to not be over valued considering the coaching and player changes coming after.. 6 OL's off to the NFL along w the RB and QB, TE, 2 WR's and 7 more guys off that D .. 13 draft picks a gaggle of free agents, number of impact transfers out the door .. that is the bulk of what I'm lookin at here but along w the losses we don't see M making much of an attempt to pad their roster, a really suspiciously low number of xfers in the door .. obvi there's the investigation stuff idk if that's such a huge distraction but it does make me wonder if there's more of a business decision going on here to wait and see what the potential for NCAA penalties are before trying to portal major additions in .. think that's the move here since there can't be a shortage of money raised from a natty run or interest to play there ..  

Overall the team does look real competitive and the D does look very strong again but schedule with 3 near complete teams and likely elite if not very close to elite offenses is I think too much to overcome .. the 4th loss seems like a more of a crap shoot, I'll say maybe they run over USC and render their offense inoperable but that one could get interesting .. that first roadie on Oct 5th for the Natty Rematch is just nothing I could bet on either side of but the spot is so bad for Mich coming off USC then massive rival Minny gunna throw their biggest punch then that trip ..  Mich State could be easy again but I don't think they're a sure fire 3 TD dog they'll throw a punch this year.. that sets up the gm vs the Ducks and just sayin that spot @Indy looks so nasty I mean maybe an easy peasy win but Mich can't take a week off or get stupid in a game w out a really good offense to help their D out .. and yeah big target on em this yr.. I think at worse we're just tying our money up 10 wins feels like a stretch and the floor could be lower than expected ... I'll play them over 9 next year .. 

Yeah, Wolverines will be interesting. New OC, DC, and not so easy schedule. The fact they have not settled on a QB is a caution flag for me. Orji has all the tools but not the experience. Tuttle has the decision making abilities but not the rounded athletic abilities. Walk-on Warren has shown some flashes too. Whomever they chose, if they do, the offensive play calling will be tailored to the qb's strength. Maybe QB rotation game one? They have a big hill to climb!

SMALLER

S.DAK ST / OKLAHOMA ST -9.5 (FAN)

You can get this at ESPN with a little juice tacked on .. Was planning to leave this alone as I don't think Pokes have shown up particularly well vs some of their smaller competition in stillwater early on .. 23-16 vs SEMO and small win vs Tulsa to start a year they went 11-1 in the reg ssn kicked off a 10-0 ATS run for them .. made them a nice value play that year .. but this is kinda like man moment machine for Gundy, they were supposed to stink last year and started off that way losing 7-33 vs South Bama en route to going on a 6-2 ATS run .. welp now comes the cream of the FCS crop there's no way you treat this like a little dink team B12 may or may not get 2 in the playoff but Pokes do themselves a huuuuge disservice losing this one and forcing themselves to win the conf championship .. must show up / must win / better be convincing .. if not we'll be hoping to hit them on another ATS run at some pt .. 

The good part w the matchup is you have all everything Ollie-G to rely on and Jacks D front is not nearly as nasty with some big departures .. and same on Offense Jacks lose top 3 receivers including the YANKE-YANG TWINZ .. and lose Isaiah Davis at RB, a total tackle breaking machine and some of their solid OL's .. Jacks have plenty back and strong DB unit but this line feels alot like what we'd get last year and here we are with SDSU likely taking a step down and Pokes can't do anything but take a step up from the MASSIVE ret pro and I think 2nd year DC found ways to be pesky when not playing ELITE pass games and whatever the step is on D I think there will be one, maybe a big one .. we also have a data pt from SP+ with their consolidated FBS/FCS model telling us the Pokes are a 13.2 pt fav neutral field ..  Bill C's HFA is 2 pts or so for the model but we gamblers know that model HFA is an average of every venue and Stillwater is an above average venue in every way and very oft overlooked .. think we can tack 3.5-4 pts to Bill's 13 and call it 17 here or over a TD diff from the offered line .. is it reallllly that much diff in reality idk but it does feel like you gotta respect the very real diff between FCS and power 4 teams and this gotta be at least 13.5 maybe 14.5 .. 

Fan had no prob moving this to 10.5 after I played it they'd have seen Bill's model number and I'd imagine they got plenty of JACKs money already and time to true it up .. just my guess but thinking this won't stay under 10 very long and yeah under 10 is where we wanna play this one .. good luck!

BRIDGE PLAYS

MICH / TEXAS -3.5 WK2 
MICH / OREG -3.5 WK10

SMALLER
MICH / MICH ST +22 WK9

MICH PAR-FADE
TEX -4, OREG -4, MICH ST+22, OSU -10.5 .. 12.3-1 (CZRs)

Picked the BP's up at ESPN only ones with -3.5 and not offering juiced odds I could find .. It would seem like if Orji struggles passing we have a pretty good shot here .. couple that with any unfortunate incident like he gets hurt while scrambling around .. I don't hope for that but scrambling QB's do have that major risk baked in and gunna be some solid DL's comin at him and otherwise could just get any number of just nagging injuries this year that don't let him perform his best .. the good news for him is he's a freaks list level freak and probably can get dinged up a bit and still handle himself.. I hit a 10 team fade like this one vs Indy back in '21 which was an EPIC HORRIBLE year for them .. even w out major injuries I think has a pretty decent shot if the assumption that Mich is decently overrated is in deed valid .. a few books allowed same team parlay fades earlier in the summer but only caesars was still letting me hit this one otherwise we'd get at least a hook better on the favorites .. FAN might still let you do it .. good luck!

So Bridge, in addition to having a potential skill and coaching advantage, do you think my beloved Longhorns have the mental mindset to beat Michigan in the Big House on September 7 and perhaps cover the small chalk?     I try not to bet for or against Texas, because its hard to be objective...IT appears that two respective cappers here on Covers NCAAF, you and Wise, are backing Texas to cover in week 2.  Thank you in advance...

@LonghornHoosier

Well I just posted it up top bridge play so I think they'll cover .. as for the skills and mindests I hope they have those I'm not dialed into where UT's mental fitness is .. If there's a wonder about that pre-ssn then things will get ugly this year .. but at least for UT the positive from last year is they made real improvements and were prepared to go into Tuscaloosa and pull off that win and that was vs a team that seems better in every way than Mich this year .. think we were some of the few likin the Horns +6 or so .. and there was a pt in that game when Bama got the lead back I was thinkin rut roh, classic Saban comeback but they answered quick kept their composure for a big win .. My 30-1 natty looked pretty good at that pt .. Soooooo .. what the hell happened mid season like understand they lose last second to OU, it happens .. often .. but then dicking around with the next 4/5 other teams .. stock plummeted and looked like the odd man out for the playoffs w just one freaky loss and a win at THE TUSK on the resume .. Questionable convo about shark takes a massively uglier turn if the cookie crumbled a little diff in any of those close games... amirite?.. but they pulled themselves together and maybe was just fortunate they had opponents in T-Tech and the Pokes they could throttle bit at the last minute and good on the Horns they actually did .. but yeah dude they verrry nearly tanked a sure thing playoff resume .. then okay fine they had no response to Wash's pass attack not many did but then start punting and fumbling .. and given just an UNREAL MIRACLE SHOT at the end and 4 plays from the 12 they get -1 yds .. ya hope they look at themselves and realize they beat themselves out of a very realistic chance to win the natty last year .. that Run D was so good they woulda been a great matchup vs the Wolvos .. but it wasn't meant to see, let alone be ..  

My play here is really a fade of Michigan they lost a METRIC A$$LOAD of talent and they don't seem to be trying to stack a roster to defend their natty I'd expect them to go PORTAL HEAVY next year when their situations clear up .. and I think lingering doubts are real about the Horns takin down an SEC Championship and/or NATTY this year they relied on SUPER ELITE run D and should not have even been close in alotta those games giving up like 1 yd / carry .. so if the run D dips to like top 10 are they MASSIVELY better in the secondary or do they make it up on offense offense?.. Blue is solid RB but losing Baxter is a concern I really liked the 2 Strong RB's, I'm sure they have another guy but we know its not the same thing .. I'll say if we see that Mich can't exploit their secondary, which I suspect they can't, then freaky lucky scores aside I shouldn't be sweating this at all in H2 Horns should get a lead and Mich should have no chance to catch up easy win .. and yeah total resume builder w overrated Mich in the BIG HOUSE, a convincing 10pt+ win will pad that Resume nicely and even if Mich tanks rest of the year this will put them on all the radars early lot to be said about a team w the guts to play these big games and win .. and just like last year Bama win @TUSK WAS no doubt the one thing that gott'em past UGA, OSU and FSU into the playoffs .. so yeah If I'm sweating late in this one then I think we'll both agree .. AUSTIN, WE HAVE A PROBLEM!!!! .. ..  let's avoid and get a big early win .. 

BRIDGE PRE-SSN ROUNDUP

BRIDGE PLAYS

GT / G.STATE +21
RICE / SAM HOUSTON +10.5
CLEM / UGA UNDER 48.5
VANDY / V-TECH UNDER 54
BP GOYs:
MICH / TEXAS -3.5 WK 2
K-ST / ARIZONA +9 WK 3
LSU / S.CAROLINA +10 WK 3
FL.ST / SMU +9 WK 5
MICH / OREG -3.5 WK 10

SMALLER
DUKE / ELON +24.5
CAL / UC DAVIS +23.5
S.DAK ST / OKLA.ST -9.5
N.CAR / MINNESOTA -1.5
RICE / SAM HOUSTON +11.5
PENN ST / W.VIRGINIA +10.5
OLD DOM / S.CAROLINA -17.5
N.MEX / MONT ST UNDER 55.5
VA TECH / VANDY UNDER 55.5
ASU / WYOMING UNDER 47.5
SAM HOU / RICE OVER 48.5
CAL / UC DAVIS OVER 53.5
SMALLER GOYs:
IOWA / IOWA ST +3 WK 2
CLEM / NC ST +10 WK 4
DUKE / N.CAR -3 WK 5
UGA / ALABAMA +5 WK 5
TEXAS / OKLA +8.5 WK 7
LSU / OLE MISS +3 WK 7
FLA.ST / MIAMI +2 WK 9
LSU / TEXAS A&M -1 WK 9
MICH / MICH ST +22 WK 9
UGA / OLE MISS +7.5 WK 11
UNC / NC STATE - PK WK 14
CLEM / S.CAROLINA +13 WK 14

FUN BETS
UC DAVIS +23.5/O53.5 ... 3.14-1
UC DAVIS ML/O54.5 ... 29.3-1
SAM HOO ML/O48.5 .. 7.55-1
MICH PAR-FADE: TEX -4, OREG -4, MSU+22, OSU -10.5.. 12.3-1

SSN WINS:
MICHIGAN UNDER 9 -140
UCLA UNDER 5.5 +120
PITT UNDER 5.5 -125
LSU UNDER 9.5 -110
CAL OVER 5.5 -135
VANDY OVER 2.5 -120
INDIANA OVER 5.5 +125
S.CAROLINA OVER 5.5 -120
MINNESOTA OVER 5.5 +115
E. CAROLINA OVER 5.5 -150
GA SOUTHERN OVER 5  -115
GA SOUTHERN OVER 4.5 -175
SAM HOUSTON OVER 4.5 -130

CONF:
CAL 50-1
SMU 22-1
NC STATE 12-1
IOWA STATE 12-1
E. CAROLINA 16-1
W.MICHIGAN 10-1
GA SOUTHERN 25-1
ARIZONA STATE 100-1

MAKE PLAYOFF
TEXAS STATE 17-1
E.CAROLINA 130-1

HEISMAN:
TRAVIS HUNTER 75-1
AVERY JOHNSON 40-1
GRAYSON MCCALL 100-1
BEHREN MORTON 200-1
LANORRIS SELLERS 500-1

NATTY:
SMU 500-1

@Bridge1

 Thank you sir... That was an excellent summary.    I think Texas still has plenty of talent to tote the rock, even though the Baxter loss was tough...I like the Texas -3 pick in week 2.  

@Bridge1

 Be honest you bet both Alabama and Washington big against Michigan last year? Like everybody else on the board who maybe watched Michigan play one regular season game last year.

@Bridge1

 "SMALLER
MICH / MICH ST +22 WK9"

Dude, even for a skeptical wolv fan like myself, that's a low blow! 

@UNIMAN

Hahaaa ohh c'mon I'm not pickin em to win here, you'd be happy with a 2 TD win or a 3TD win it doesn't have to be 23 or more.. yeah I tried to sneak this page in at the end knew it would cause a big stir you know Feinbaum was right about you people ..  .. But yeah I mean there's either PR adjustments coming or there's not and good on them if they can overcome the whole roster purge .. no matter what they say Michigan is still a good team .. 

@Bridge1

 Having fun with ya.

My feeling is the new wolv team needs time to gell, they have good players. Maybe fade early and play them later, we'll see.

As far as portal, facing NCAA punishment leaves them with one hand tied behind their back. Hard to convince players to jump aboard so why try hard.

Wink's defense performance should be the key.

@UNIMAN

Ha i know buddy .. i mean I don't have inside info just guessing UM looked at the situation and if they weren't getting the portal class they wanted then nowadays the move is dont force it save the money make twice the splash next time .. that stinks too because that D still sounds extra nasty and some dudes will be gone next yr .. LSU sorta same thing opposite side of the ball it seems like if they were gearing for a natty run they HAD to get a couple big time DL's in there but those are hard to come by and also their DB's are probably a year away too .. sure they coulda got some guys in but might just be taking up space on the roster or if they're actually good maybe they're gone next year .. we'll see how that goes but yeah LSU makes quite a few appearances on my list too ..  really strange though .. nobodys tampon fell out of their azz because of it baaahahaa .. I'll tell ya what big boy you g'head n give LSU a call see if they might join forces help ya steal another natty .. we're meetin em 7am tomorrow i'll bring the cheeseburgers .. baaahaha jk jk .. 

FUTURES

SAM HOUSTON CUSA CHAMPS 30-1 (CIRCA)

Circa not widely available but if yer in one of their states i'm recommending you have them great shop around option simply because they make their own lines and move em how they see fit not copying everyone else .. and the real reaaaal good reason is you can often find futures and GOY lines that are decently better than others .. La Norris 4 heisman 500-1 is 200 elsewhere and maybe its beyond dead on arrival one day we'll hit a big fun bet and def hope we hit it at circa lol .. lotta books cap their odds and no doubt Circa does too just their cap is higher and sometimes its best in the market .. just like here .. 

I don't have any more news on Sammy Hoo and we talked alot about them up top .. only plugging Circa because were getting 10-12X higher on their CUSA futures I was hoping to hit it around the 30's or 40's but odds for CUSA came out w Lib makin us lay odds and 5x for WKY and about 7 for J-VILLE .. I actually would like to hit J-VILLE but couldn't get enough to go on it .. but Sammy Hoo has consistently been 18-22X all over and the only team on a 3rd tier shelf in the conference .. They are deficient in some areas but like last year we hit NMSU 30-1 this feels like we could sneak in and potentiallllly take a stab or go for a hedge out before then .. SAMMY does get 2 outta 3 of the BIG BOYZ at home w WKY mid year and that's a huuuuge game to position us for a BIG FINALE going @J-VILLE and LIBERTY at home in the finale .. at 30-1 we hope they're not laying 21 like NMSU did (before they beat auburn) and/or secure a trip to the champ game .. no matter what though if SAM's Club can make it into that home stretch with a chance to win .. pretty decent shot .. I like our chances to maybe get maybe 5x outta this even w them not looking superior .. if they look great maybe we let it ride .. Would love to be playin LIB at home year end to find out who gets home field in the champ game the following week .. 

Taking now 30-1 .. BUT .. peep the schedule early we have @Rice, @UCF, Hawaii, NMSU, Texas State .. its very possible Sammy's odds grow or plummet depending on how they play that stretch .. if they hit a rough run but we're still not hating our prospects maybe we're getting 50-1 at some pt in that stretch .. what we don't want is to pass on 50-1 before they square off vs T-State at home big heated non con and look decent heading into conf so use yer judgement there .. 

SEASON WINS

FLORIDA STATE UNDER 9.5 -115 (CZR)

They should have the motivation and drive to rebound but serious losses and I'm looking at the schedule and the first stretch after GT is just nasty I think the losses could come @SMU, CLEM, @MIAMI, @ND and quite a few other sneky games like Cal, Memp, GT, UNC think its 3-4 losses .. 

5 mins to kickin off a new season .. maybe we start counting our chickens after a shocker?? .. GO GT!!!!...

@Bridge1

 Is this all you have???  Jt.  Gl!!

BRIDGE PRE-SSN ROUNDUP

BRIDGE PLAYS

GT / G.STATE +21
RICE / SAM HOUSTON +10.5
CLEM / UGA UNDER 48.5
VANDY / V-TECH UNDER 54
BP GOYs:
MICH / TEXAS -3.5 WK 2
K-ST / ARIZONA +9 WK 3
LSU / S.CAROLINA +10 WK 3
FL.ST / SMU +9 WK 5
MICH / OREG -3.5 WK 10

SMALLER
DUKE / ELON +24.5
CAL / UC DAVIS +23.5
S.DAK ST / OKLA.ST -9.5
N.CAR / MINNESOTA -1.5
RICE / SAM HOUSTON +11.5
PENN ST / W.VIRGINIA +10.5
OLD DOM / S.CAROLINA -17.5
N.MEX / MONT ST UNDER 55.5
VA TECH / VANDY UNDER 55.5
ASU / WYOMING UNDER 47.5
SAM HOU / RICE OVER 48.5
CAL / UC DAVIS OVER 53.5
SMALLER GOYs:
IOWA / IOWA ST +3 WK 2
CLEM / NC ST +10 WK 4
DUKE / N.CAR -3 WK 5
UGA / ALABAMA +5 WK 5
TEXAS / OKLA +8.5 WK 7
LSU / OLE MISS +3 WK 7
FLA.ST / MIAMI +2 WK 9
LSU / TEXAS A&M -1 WK 9
MICH / MICH ST +22 WK 9
UGA / OLE MISS +7.5 WK 11
UNC / NC STATE - PK WK 14
CLEM / S.CAROLINA +13 WK 14

FUN BETS
UC DAVIS +23.5/O53.5 ... 3.14-1
UC DAVIS ML/O54.5 ... 29.3-1
SAM HOO ML/O48.5 .. 7.55-1
MICH PAR-FADE: TEX -4, OREG -4, MSU+22, OSU -10.5.. 12.3-1

SSN WINS:
FLORIDA ST UNDER 9.5 -115 
MICHIGAN UNDER 9 -140
UCLA UNDER 5.5 +120
PITT UNDER 5.5 -125
LSU UNDER 9.5 -110
CAL OVER 5.5 -135
VANDY OVER 2.5 -120
INDIANA OVER 5.5 +125
S.CAROLINA OVER 5.5 -120
MINNESOTA OVER 5.5 +115
E. CAROLINA OVER 5.5 -150
GA SOUTHERN OVER 5  -115
GA SOUTHERN OVER 4.5 -175
SAM HOUSTON OVER 4.5 -130

CONF:
CAL 50-1
SMU 22-1
NC STATE 12-1
IOWA STATE 12-1
E. CAROLINA 16-1
W.MICHIGAN 10-1
GA SOUTHERN 25-1
SAM HOUSTON 30-1
ARIZONA STATE 100-1

MAKE PLAYOFF
TEXAS STATE 17-1
E.CAROLINA 130-1

HEISMAN:
TRAVIS HUNTER 75-1
AVERY JOHNSON 40-1
GRAYSON MCCALL 100-1
BEHREN MORTON 200-1
LANORRIS SELLERS 500-1

NATTY:
SMU 500-1

GL this  season @Bridge1 

@JozKnows

JOZ .. YOU KNOWS BROTHER ..  .. Tell me you didn't stick an extra zero on there buddy lol .. ohhh either way fun ride coming!!!

Missed FSU season wins…5 min before post time? Crap

@robtri

Yeah it was kinda just for the record books at that point nobody gunna find me in the crowd last minute .. but maaaaan that was not expected and i even thought GT squandered away opportunities multiple times with stupid penalties you roll the dice on that game again and seemed like they win easy ..