Theyre giving us alot to think about this pre-ssn we got win totals for P5 out unbelievably early and there are a LOT of oddball things going on w the schedule alone to think about .. weird new dynamic with the 12-team playoff = ALOT of teams fighting to the end that would normally be busted out.. any teams need to run a gauntlet thru playoff contenders late in the year? .. lookin at you Florida holy smokes, better get that bowl locked up early or might see the bye bye Billy lever pulled hoping to avoid an 0-5 crash ending ..
lotta late coaching changes some pretty major ones makin domino effects all over.. sounds like O'brien plinko'd right to BC real late.. also sounds like the DC is someone from the arena league .. Might want to eval their schedule considering how good their offensive opponents are.. maybe UNC will be the worst offense they play?.. eek ..
We got the 14 week schedule this year that happens every 5 years which means two bye weeks for each team .. tack on an FCS team maybe consider it 3 bye weeks? .. good to know when teams get those .. but what you really want to know is how many teams scheduled a break right before your favorite team because some got particularl unlucky in that regard .. Stan, Indy, Bama, Florida have 5 opponents off an FCS or a bye .. eek ..
Ohhhh and merging of conferences I almost forgot haha this makes for quite a few wild dynamics, some teams play a slew of newbies .. K-State/ASU/Bay/AZ show 10 conf opponents scheduled .. matchups between them actually not counting for the conf standings but no way they no show those games .. K-state also @Tulane, Bay gets AF at home in non-con play really means one easy game for them all year.. B12 might have more than 10 contenders to win the conf this year esp if K-State rugged schedule produces a few surprise snags for em .. anyone peep Washington's first (real) road game? coming pretty late, 9/28 w a looong travel to NJ for Rutgers first big home game (circled for sure) and a massive look ahead natty rematch on deck .. that also happens to be Michigan's first road game of the year coming on October 5th! .... Welp hope I talked you outta grabbing up Michigan -10 for that insane GOY spot .. maybe we can get Rutgers +7 in that big home spot instead?.. please!
yeah get those schedules done up boys because there's alot more going on than usual and books seem to just casually use SP+ to drum up a win total w a few minor adjustments here and there... well .. that's not the way I do it!!!
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Gents
Theyre giving us alot to think about this pre-ssn we got win totals for P5 out unbelievably early and there are a LOT of oddball things going on w the schedule alone to think about .. weird new dynamic with the 12-team playoff = ALOT of teams fighting to the end that would normally be busted out.. any teams need to run a gauntlet thru playoff contenders late in the year? .. lookin at you Florida holy smokes, better get that bowl locked up early or might see the bye bye Billy lever pulled hoping to avoid an 0-5 crash ending ..
lotta late coaching changes some pretty major ones makin domino effects all over.. sounds like O'brien plinko'd right to BC real late.. also sounds like the DC is someone from the arena league .. Might want to eval their schedule considering how good their offensive opponents are.. maybe UNC will be the worst offense they play?.. eek ..
We got the 14 week schedule this year that happens every 5 years which means two bye weeks for each team .. tack on an FCS team maybe consider it 3 bye weeks? .. good to know when teams get those .. but what you really want to know is how many teams scheduled a break right before your favorite team because some got particularl unlucky in that regard .. Stan, Indy, Bama, Florida have 5 opponents off an FCS or a bye .. eek ..
Ohhhh and merging of conferences I almost forgot haha this makes for quite a few wild dynamics, some teams play a slew of newbies .. K-State/ASU/Bay/AZ show 10 conf opponents scheduled .. matchups between them actually not counting for the conf standings but no way they no show those games .. K-state also @Tulane, Bay gets AF at home in non-con play really means one easy game for them all year.. B12 might have more than 10 contenders to win the conf this year esp if K-State rugged schedule produces a few surprise snags for em .. anyone peep Washington's first (real) road game? coming pretty late, 9/28 w a looong travel to NJ for Rutgers first big home game (circled for sure) and a massive look ahead natty rematch on deck .. that also happens to be Michigan's first road game of the year coming on October 5th! .... Welp hope I talked you outta grabbing up Michigan -10 for that insane GOY spot .. maybe we can get Rutgers +7 in that big home spot instead?.. please!
yeah get those schedules done up boys because there's alot more going on than usual and books seem to just casually use SP+ to drum up a win total w a few minor adjustments here and there... well .. that's not the way I do it!!!
Took this at BOL and Fanduel for -130 enough to post it .. Nothing pretty about Vandy had a terrible year got throttled by the portal after a pretty decent '22 .. Recall Bridge Plays rockin a very daring VANDY OVER 2 that year cashed in 3 games .. I'm not feelin as great about Vandy's prospects this year I'm relying on a few targets on the schedule to be easy wins first and foremost Alcorn State, @GA State and Ball State .. No reason to think Alcorn will be more than a punching bag, GA-State's HC Shawn Elliott moving on very late in the cycle jumped ship right as Spring practice started to be S.Car TE coach .. whuuut .. this dude was that program and beat alot of big non-con teams for the Panthers. Idk the exact reasons he's out its clear he shoulda got a better HC spot somewhere .. maybe he saw the team and said yeah let's park somewhere else for a year than go thru a horrible downturn, Panthers right now sitting #130 in ret pro w the QB gone the good RB, some good WR's and a few decent defensemen last year .. total rebuilding year and HC was the heart and soul of that team, already had a guy hit the portal and im guessing new coach whipping up a new coaching squad last minute that we'll see quite a few guys bolt after spring .. Ball State w really bad ret pro on defense which really far and away their best side of the ball last year lost some legit dudes on their DL .. I don't see this team having wild success on either side of the ball... so maybe boom there's yer 3 wins? ..
Were backstopped by the easy games but beyond those I think we have a decent enough shot at wins VT is a model darling heading into this year .. in conf we got @Kentucky, @Auburn, S.Carolina and could be 4 more shots on goal outside the easy games so count is good... think any one of those SEC teams could pitch a dud this year and who couldn't see VT just being overhyped and show up lookin like they usually do a team dickin around w the likes of Old Dominion.
Haven't peeped too far into Vandy's roster I do see the ret pro is not great but not bad 54% offense 65% defense meh .. most exciting part is they got DIEGO PAVIA and Jerry Kill is an offensive advisor on staff .. It does sound like Pav might be a summer or fall xfer according to the Vandy posts I don't see him on the spring roster, but I do see Kill is on staff and gives me confidence D-Pav is on the way and timing will be known to us sooner than later.. But yeah as of now there is at least some risk Pav doesn't show .. that would stink but wouldn't bury the team .. The other thing is Lea off another doooozie of a season w 2 wins and the good part there is he's gotta take the wins that he can get or no reason not to roll the dice with like Trent Dilfer or anyone else .. I just think its a diff story w the schedule 3-4 wins w out Pav suiting up a single game .. but if Pav shows up there's a great amount of upset potential there and wouldn't rule out that DUDE just finding a way to give them a shot at making a bowl late in the year .. #InPaviaWeTrust!!
Why take this so early?! .. I can't see 2.5 being around long I think the number should be 3 layin odds or 3.5 takin odds .. 2.5 is what SP+ model probabilities would approximate for us and this is clearly a case of Books not even looking at the schedule ..
SEASON WINS
VANDERBILT OVER 2.5 -120 (BOL)
Welp Duck .. this ones for you buddy ..
Took this at BOL and Fanduel for -130 enough to post it .. Nothing pretty about Vandy had a terrible year got throttled by the portal after a pretty decent '22 .. Recall Bridge Plays rockin a very daring VANDY OVER 2 that year cashed in 3 games .. I'm not feelin as great about Vandy's prospects this year I'm relying on a few targets on the schedule to be easy wins first and foremost Alcorn State, @GA State and Ball State .. No reason to think Alcorn will be more than a punching bag, GA-State's HC Shawn Elliott moving on very late in the cycle jumped ship right as Spring practice started to be S.Car TE coach .. whuuut .. this dude was that program and beat alot of big non-con teams for the Panthers. Idk the exact reasons he's out its clear he shoulda got a better HC spot somewhere .. maybe he saw the team and said yeah let's park somewhere else for a year than go thru a horrible downturn, Panthers right now sitting #130 in ret pro w the QB gone the good RB, some good WR's and a few decent defensemen last year .. total rebuilding year and HC was the heart and soul of that team, already had a guy hit the portal and im guessing new coach whipping up a new coaching squad last minute that we'll see quite a few guys bolt after spring .. Ball State w really bad ret pro on defense which really far and away their best side of the ball last year lost some legit dudes on their DL .. I don't see this team having wild success on either side of the ball... so maybe boom there's yer 3 wins? ..
Were backstopped by the easy games but beyond those I think we have a decent enough shot at wins VT is a model darling heading into this year .. in conf we got @Kentucky, @Auburn, S.Carolina and could be 4 more shots on goal outside the easy games so count is good... think any one of those SEC teams could pitch a dud this year and who couldn't see VT just being overhyped and show up lookin like they usually do a team dickin around w the likes of Old Dominion.
Haven't peeped too far into Vandy's roster I do see the ret pro is not great but not bad 54% offense 65% defense meh .. most exciting part is they got DIEGO PAVIA and Jerry Kill is an offensive advisor on staff .. It does sound like Pav might be a summer or fall xfer according to the Vandy posts I don't see him on the spring roster, but I do see Kill is on staff and gives me confidence D-Pav is on the way and timing will be known to us sooner than later.. But yeah as of now there is at least some risk Pav doesn't show .. that would stink but wouldn't bury the team .. The other thing is Lea off another doooozie of a season w 2 wins and the good part there is he's gotta take the wins that he can get or no reason not to roll the dice with like Trent Dilfer or anyone else .. I just think its a diff story w the schedule 3-4 wins w out Pav suiting up a single game .. but if Pav shows up there's a great amount of upset potential there and wouldn't rule out that DUDE just finding a way to give them a shot at making a bowl late in the year .. #InPaviaWeTrust!!
Why take this so early?! .. I can't see 2.5 being around long I think the number should be 3 layin odds or 3.5 takin odds .. 2.5 is what SP+ model probabilities would approximate for us and this is clearly a case of Books not even looking at the schedule ..
Good read on Vandy. I tailed the 3 win September in 2022 and this looks similar, though roster may be worse. That team ended up 5-7!
I scooped the Yellow Jackets O5.5 +110. It was shaky for a moment with Faulkner emerging as GSU candidate. But that offense returning everyone will win 6 games by itself. They're resetting on D, but that's fine. Schedule is very tough. Curious to your thoughts
I also took a stab at +100000, but I'm realistic about it. I also ruined those odds with only a $99 bet
Good read on Vandy. I tailed the 3 win September in 2022 and this looks similar, though roster may be worse. That team ended up 5-7!
I scooped the Yellow Jackets O5.5 +110. It was shaky for a moment with Faulkner emerging as GSU candidate. But that offense returning everyone will win 6 games by itself. They're resetting on D, but that's fine. Schedule is very tough. Curious to your thoughts
I also took a stab at +100000, but I'm realistic about it. I also ruined those odds with only a $99 bet
I hit GT +13 or something vs FSU opener just for kicks FD had a few posted day after the natty said f it let's go .. feels like another scrappy team .. D was a mess last year hard to look at low ret pro and be worried they need a new crew on that side .. think there's something to like but 5 games they;re >10 pt dogs per SP+ calc and while yeah GT been king of the upsets couple years let's not forget they lost to Bowling Green and blew shots vs Ville and I think some others had every chance to beat Ole Miss too .. needed the Miami Miracle and UNC I think was another big comeback .. I played GT Over 3.5 in '22 and think 4.5 last year was jammed up each time felt like a loss before they pulled some shockers .. could blow by 5.5 easy sure but its def a team I'm gunna wanna see what they got to play over that number .. really bad D situation would put me off they had a few guys to like last year couple good safeties, would be a turnoff if we don't get some kinda good vibe from that side post spring ..
Btw Joz don't listen to me lol think you nailed it on a couple like Cuse and Wyo last couple years I was more skep shoulda listened, so fire away brother ..
@wolfeman3 @BigTymePlayer25 @steponaduck
Haha thanks guys ...
@JozKnows
I hit GT +13 or something vs FSU opener just for kicks FD had a few posted day after the natty said f it let's go .. feels like another scrappy team .. D was a mess last year hard to look at low ret pro and be worried they need a new crew on that side .. think there's something to like but 5 games they;re >10 pt dogs per SP+ calc and while yeah GT been king of the upsets couple years let's not forget they lost to Bowling Green and blew shots vs Ville and I think some others had every chance to beat Ole Miss too .. needed the Miami Miracle and UNC I think was another big comeback .. I played GT Over 3.5 in '22 and think 4.5 last year was jammed up each time felt like a loss before they pulled some shockers .. could blow by 5.5 easy sure but its def a team I'm gunna wanna see what they got to play over that number .. really bad D situation would put me off they had a few guys to like last year couple good safeties, would be a turnoff if we don't get some kinda good vibe from that side post spring ..
Btw Joz don't listen to me lol think you nailed it on a couple like Cuse and Wyo last couple years I was more skep shoulda listened, so fire away brother ..
Yeah the schedule is rough. You sorta confirmed my fears there. Agree, they had athletes in the back 4, they lost Johnson (portal) & Sims (grad). Those guys would bail out the bad defense at times. Thinking of Van Dykes implosion. I'm already in on Georgia Tech, so I hope for the defense to be middling and not terrible by August. You're right, I've hit some I've posted in your threads but I still like to sanity check with you.
Two more kick starts if you don't mind. UNC under & Wiscy over. What do you think? I'd also love Minny without the juice at 4.5.. think that's getting away. G5 I think will have the most value this year but I'm seeing some opportunity on these.
Damn this is hard in February.
Yeah the schedule is rough. You sorta confirmed my fears there. Agree, they had athletes in the back 4, they lost Johnson (portal) & Sims (grad). Those guys would bail out the bad defense at times. Thinking of Van Dykes implosion. I'm already in on Georgia Tech, so I hope for the defense to be middling and not terrible by August. You're right, I've hit some I've posted in your threads but I still like to sanity check with you.
Two more kick starts if you don't mind. UNC under & Wiscy over. What do you think? I'd also love Minny without the juice at 4.5.. think that's getting away. G5 I think will have the most value this year but I'm seeing some opportunity on these.
@wolfeman3 @BigTymePlayer25 @steponaduck Haha thanks guys ... @JozKnows I hit GT +13 or something vs FSU opener just for kicks FD had a few posted day after the natty said f it let's go .. feels like another scrappy team .. D was a mess last year hard to look at low ret pro and be worried they need a new crew on that side .. think there's something to like but 5 games they;re >10 pt dogs per SP+ calc and while yeah GT been king of the upsets couple years let's not forget they lost to Bowling Green and blew shots vs Ville and I think some others had every chance to beat Ole Miss too .. needed the Miami Miracle and UNC I think was another big comeback .. I played GT Over 3.5 in '22 and think 4.5 last year was jammed up each time felt like a loss before they pulled some shockers .. could blow by 5.5 easy sure but its def a team I'm gunna wanna see what they got to play over that number .. really bad D situation would put me off they had a few guys to like last year couple good safeties, would be a turnoff if we don't get some kinda good vibe from that side post spring .. Btw Joz don't listen to me lol think you nailed it on a couple like Cuse and Wyo last couple years I was more skep shoulda listened, so fire away brother ..
GT is so interesting. at times they show flashes of brilliance, like they could beat anyone in the acc handily. and then, they lose by 25 against BG...super bizarre.
and certainly the most fortunate team in the ACC last year with two miracle comebacks in games they were "mathematically eliminated" in...Bridge and I were talking during the GT-Miami game...it worked out well for us mario effect.
Until the wallet is full.
Quote Originally Posted by Bridge1:
@wolfeman3 @BigTymePlayer25 @steponaduck Haha thanks guys ... @JozKnows I hit GT +13 or something vs FSU opener just for kicks FD had a few posted day after the natty said f it let's go .. feels like another scrappy team .. D was a mess last year hard to look at low ret pro and be worried they need a new crew on that side .. think there's something to like but 5 games they;re >10 pt dogs per SP+ calc and while yeah GT been king of the upsets couple years let's not forget they lost to Bowling Green and blew shots vs Ville and I think some others had every chance to beat Ole Miss too .. needed the Miami Miracle and UNC I think was another big comeback .. I played GT Over 3.5 in '22 and think 4.5 last year was jammed up each time felt like a loss before they pulled some shockers .. could blow by 5.5 easy sure but its def a team I'm gunna wanna see what they got to play over that number .. really bad D situation would put me off they had a few guys to like last year couple good safeties, would be a turnoff if we don't get some kinda good vibe from that side post spring .. Btw Joz don't listen to me lol think you nailed it on a couple like Cuse and Wyo last couple years I was more skep shoulda listened, so fire away brother ..
GT is so interesting. at times they show flashes of brilliance, like they could beat anyone in the acc handily. and then, they lose by 25 against BG...super bizarre.
and certainly the most fortunate team in the ACC last year with two miracle comebacks in games they were "mathematically eliminated" in...Bridge and I were talking during the GT-Miami game...it worked out well for us mario effect.
UNC 8.5 at BOL under is -170 I think 8.5 is just insane, its 7.5 at fan duel for something a little more reasonable but think its still pretty hefty .. the schedule isin't unbeatable and prob start 4-0 .. could anyway .. pretty insane the way they tailed off last year after looking like giants and now here we are with maybe dead last in ret pro .. yeah I'd go under 8.5 if anything idk if I'm interested in laying those odds at least not this early ..
Minny idk been quite a slide for them they lost the good players, then lost the OC and unable to get the mojo back .. . woah buddy the models are not likin them and outside the model they lost DC Rossi who we have to trust fully as a DC at this point .. Boat Rowers gunna find better I doubt it .. that said yeah pretty low number ..
Not sayin to play this one not posting it even .. but I hit Wisco 80-1 for the B10 .. it doesn't sound great I just think 80 is astronomical for a team that has a chance to make the champ game and at least have some favorability in the schedule .. @USC but PSU, Oregon at home .. also got Bama at home .. just say if they can make the champ game w their schedule I don't think they'll be INSANE dogs .. all that said yeah I'm not liking some of the stuff w assistant coaches leaving and of course number of the good players left .. had a reaaal prob at WR and OL last year .. gunna have ?'s at RB .. need a major turnaround on a few fronts or yeah could get ugly .. I'm not on the RSW i need odds to back these guys ..
@JozKnows
UNC 8.5 at BOL under is -170 I think 8.5 is just insane, its 7.5 at fan duel for something a little more reasonable but think its still pretty hefty .. the schedule isin't unbeatable and prob start 4-0 .. could anyway .. pretty insane the way they tailed off last year after looking like giants and now here we are with maybe dead last in ret pro .. yeah I'd go under 8.5 if anything idk if I'm interested in laying those odds at least not this early ..
Minny idk been quite a slide for them they lost the good players, then lost the OC and unable to get the mojo back .. . woah buddy the models are not likin them and outside the model they lost DC Rossi who we have to trust fully as a DC at this point .. Boat Rowers gunna find better I doubt it .. that said yeah pretty low number ..
Not sayin to play this one not posting it even .. but I hit Wisco 80-1 for the B10 .. it doesn't sound great I just think 80 is astronomical for a team that has a chance to make the champ game and at least have some favorability in the schedule .. @USC but PSU, Oregon at home .. also got Bama at home .. just say if they can make the champ game w their schedule I don't think they'll be INSANE dogs .. all that said yeah I'm not liking some of the stuff w assistant coaches leaving and of course number of the good players left .. had a reaaal prob at WR and OL last year .. gunna have ?'s at RB .. need a major turnaround on a few fronts or yeah could get ugly .. I'm not on the RSW i need odds to back these guys ..
Haaa I checked the logs we can agree you still wouldn't know you won if I didn't say anything the +30000 in game tickets were goin straight in the dumpster .. I asked around and it wouldn't be ungentlemenly of you to send, let's say ... mmm .. half ... my way, would it? .. lol ..
Yeah GT just had that ability to hang in all the games .. off the BG loss they just find a way 21.5 pt dogs .. its a buy low team and they could clobber 6 wins sure but just w where the ACC is this year there is maybe an opening for an upstart to pull a shocker and get in the champ game .. GT def in the upstart department .. I had like 250-1 last year or some moonshot number just for kicks .. needed the massive odds last year we had Clem/FSU lookin like sure things but under them a decent 2nd tier .. Ville UNC, Duke, Miami lotta competitors.. knock two of them down at least one level this pre-ssn .. maybe Ville and Miami profile stronger but can say FSU/Clem don't profile nearly as strong, Clem even continued their slide .. GT 55-1 this year .. can I not puke the moment I profile them? .. idk .. but there's def gunna be a surprise ACC team worth considering this year .. GT, Cal, SMU .. Ponies for sure could make a splash, do they have the real chops to make a run idk .. Cal in DUDE we trust .. but trust him at Cal sheesh idk ..
Was reallllly hoping Wake could give me any reason to take them for some MASSIVE odds but cursory look I can't even moonshot them not now anyway .. was hoping Griffis scared off into the portal meant they got something better than Kern and HANK "THE WW2 GERMAN PANZER TANK" BACHMEIRER who just keeps on tickin .. but man Clausen and his OC and Lambert at DC they can spin it w the right players and instead get murdered in the portal .. shoulda packed the show up and moved on somewhere w some NIL money a year ago .. and outside the skill guys im lookin at a lone DL at 300lb's on the spring roster and is true FR, I assume he's sitting in A-Gap all year .. basically the '23 UNT story .. eesh ..
@steponaduck
Haaa I checked the logs we can agree you still wouldn't know you won if I didn't say anything the +30000 in game tickets were goin straight in the dumpster .. I asked around and it wouldn't be ungentlemenly of you to send, let's say ... mmm .. half ... my way, would it? .. lol ..
Yeah GT just had that ability to hang in all the games .. off the BG loss they just find a way 21.5 pt dogs .. its a buy low team and they could clobber 6 wins sure but just w where the ACC is this year there is maybe an opening for an upstart to pull a shocker and get in the champ game .. GT def in the upstart department .. I had like 250-1 last year or some moonshot number just for kicks .. needed the massive odds last year we had Clem/FSU lookin like sure things but under them a decent 2nd tier .. Ville UNC, Duke, Miami lotta competitors.. knock two of them down at least one level this pre-ssn .. maybe Ville and Miami profile stronger but can say FSU/Clem don't profile nearly as strong, Clem even continued their slide .. GT 55-1 this year .. can I not puke the moment I profile them? .. idk .. but there's def gunna be a surprise ACC team worth considering this year .. GT, Cal, SMU .. Ponies for sure could make a splash, do they have the real chops to make a run idk .. Cal in DUDE we trust .. but trust him at Cal sheesh idk ..
Was reallllly hoping Wake could give me any reason to take them for some MASSIVE odds but cursory look I can't even moonshot them not now anyway .. was hoping Griffis scared off into the portal meant they got something better than Kern and HANK "THE WW2 GERMAN PANZER TANK" BACHMEIRER who just keeps on tickin .. but man Clausen and his OC and Lambert at DC they can spin it w the right players and instead get murdered in the portal .. shoulda packed the show up and moved on somewhere w some NIL money a year ago .. and outside the skill guys im lookin at a lone DL at 300lb's on the spring roster and is true FR, I assume he's sitting in A-Gap all year .. basically the '23 UNT story .. eesh ..
Big picture on the ACC there doesn't seem to be the sure thing heavy hitters from a year ago .. Clem and FSU could certainly emerge in the elite class or get close enough they handle the conference fairly easy .. after that we have a few teams needing to make a major jump up to lock in a sure thing conf win but I'm not sold there's an elite run away candidate in the group here this year .. I'm also not projecting as tough of a 2nd tier .. last year we had UNC, Ville, Duke, NC State, Miami sitting under the big boys .. Duke and UNC at least appear to be in a down spot maybe VT makes a jump up? .. big picture the mountain doesn't look as massive as last year and the trails seem alot less crowded... just feels like an environment we can take some stabs at the bigger dogs to maybe make a run ..
SMU 22-1 .. had my eye on this one already and we just got a few of the online books droppin numbers including Caesars which I find to be generally sharper than others .. had my eye on this pony number already and seein Czr drop a 9-1 out there well I'm grabbing sooner than later .. SMU def has their questions, I'm wondering just how much of that ret pro is returning I thought it would be more than what Bill C says its about average .. nothing extra juicy to report other than this team made a massive leap last year I feel pretty good w the QB situation even if Stone isin't ready to roll .. D has a coordinator I like and man did they make a big turnaround in one year .. def a team that should have options when looking in the portal .. all that said yeah they were G5 a minute ago and were sorta competitive w TCU but clearly not on their level .. played well vs OU but further away .. massive jump in schedule strength and very easily overrated .. I'll take it at 22 and I'm not lookin to go too far below 20 .. 9-1 at CZR's is absurd IMO ..
CAL 50-1 .. when we get into the 50's I can start taking a few liberties with the assumptions .. the main one here is these guys turn their whole act around BIG TIME .. I really like the QB they brought in from UNT by way of ULM Chandler Rogers .. every bit a proven dude and the dude we wish Sam Jackson was gunna be .. I trust him and that's kinda all I got for now outside of the ret pro is on the sunny side, especially on offense .. easy to say they can't turn around but in reality they didn't have a decent QB until true FR 3rd stringer came in and actually performed decently well .. the hope is they got a guy that can really play can flip a switch .. no sense bangin this one for massive bucks hundo to win 5k tho and QB I like and in a conf I think could be real hit and miss .. yeah sign me up ..
GT ... def on the radar another team I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on .. I wanna see what they do in the spring first shop for the best odds .. their schedule is not easy especially in the home stretch .. but yeah Cal and GT my two favs last year pre-ssn and to everyone's shock they toppled the RSW's and we had some fun along the way .. would be great to get a feel for them and enjoy a bag a popcorn with these ACC long shots!
Board filling up early!
Big picture on the ACC there doesn't seem to be the sure thing heavy hitters from a year ago .. Clem and FSU could certainly emerge in the elite class or get close enough they handle the conference fairly easy .. after that we have a few teams needing to make a major jump up to lock in a sure thing conf win but I'm not sold there's an elite run away candidate in the group here this year .. I'm also not projecting as tough of a 2nd tier .. last year we had UNC, Ville, Duke, NC State, Miami sitting under the big boys .. Duke and UNC at least appear to be in a down spot maybe VT makes a jump up? .. big picture the mountain doesn't look as massive as last year and the trails seem alot less crowded... just feels like an environment we can take some stabs at the bigger dogs to maybe make a run ..
SMU 22-1 .. had my eye on this one already and we just got a few of the online books droppin numbers including Caesars which I find to be generally sharper than others .. had my eye on this pony number already and seein Czr drop a 9-1 out there well I'm grabbing sooner than later .. SMU def has their questions, I'm wondering just how much of that ret pro is returning I thought it would be more than what Bill C says its about average .. nothing extra juicy to report other than this team made a massive leap last year I feel pretty good w the QB situation even if Stone isin't ready to roll .. D has a coordinator I like and man did they make a big turnaround in one year .. def a team that should have options when looking in the portal .. all that said yeah they were G5 a minute ago and were sorta competitive w TCU but clearly not on their level .. played well vs OU but further away .. massive jump in schedule strength and very easily overrated .. I'll take it at 22 and I'm not lookin to go too far below 20 .. 9-1 at CZR's is absurd IMO ..
CAL 50-1 .. when we get into the 50's I can start taking a few liberties with the assumptions .. the main one here is these guys turn their whole act around BIG TIME .. I really like the QB they brought in from UNT by way of ULM Chandler Rogers .. every bit a proven dude and the dude we wish Sam Jackson was gunna be .. I trust him and that's kinda all I got for now outside of the ret pro is on the sunny side, especially on offense .. easy to say they can't turn around but in reality they didn't have a decent QB until true FR 3rd stringer came in and actually performed decently well .. the hope is they got a guy that can really play can flip a switch .. no sense bangin this one for massive bucks hundo to win 5k tho and QB I like and in a conf I think could be real hit and miss .. yeah sign me up ..
GT ... def on the radar another team I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on .. I wanna see what they do in the spring first shop for the best odds .. their schedule is not easy especially in the home stretch .. but yeah Cal and GT my two favs last year pre-ssn and to everyone's shock they toppled the RSW's and we had some fun along the way .. would be great to get a feel for them and enjoy a bag a popcorn with these ACC long shots!
Shop around maybe there's a 100 out there and I think worth taking a shot at least at 75 .. Would be great if he played QB also lol but we have an unbelievably good true 2 way player .. we already have the name recognition and there will be no shortage of spotlight on colorado again this year .. if they don't win the conference can he make it? .. the stats and highlight reels are gunna have to speak for him and well this dude will have every chance to give us 60 mins of highlights every week .. I wouldn't rule out Colorado making another BIG jump in power rating which for them shuffling the deck won't be hard to do .. doesn't really matter they tailed off last year I think coach prime will have whatever the major needs are lined up to play there .. I'd say maybe take Shedeur Sanders but odds are much lower I don't think there's as much value and diff dynamic if CU isin't rollin in the wins his highlights won't mean nearly as much ... assuming Hunter is lighting up sports center from both sides of the ball again then I think there will still be an opening for a dynamic star to at least have a better than average shot to get invited to NY ... also really gotta like Prime's attitude toward making any kinda splash no way he's holding his protege back if they're sniffing hardware mid year .. lotta programs and HC's that is not the case .. like .. UGA for example ..
HEISMAN
TRAVIS HUNTER 75-1
Shop around maybe there's a 100 out there and I think worth taking a shot at least at 75 .. Would be great if he played QB also lol but we have an unbelievably good true 2 way player .. we already have the name recognition and there will be no shortage of spotlight on colorado again this year .. if they don't win the conference can he make it? .. the stats and highlight reels are gunna have to speak for him and well this dude will have every chance to give us 60 mins of highlights every week .. I wouldn't rule out Colorado making another BIG jump in power rating which for them shuffling the deck won't be hard to do .. doesn't really matter they tailed off last year I think coach prime will have whatever the major needs are lined up to play there .. I'd say maybe take Shedeur Sanders but odds are much lower I don't think there's as much value and diff dynamic if CU isin't rollin in the wins his highlights won't mean nearly as much ... assuming Hunter is lighting up sports center from both sides of the ball again then I think there will still be an opening for a dynamic star to at least have a better than average shot to get invited to NY ... also really gotta like Prime's attitude toward making any kinda splash no way he's holding his protege back if they're sniffing hardware mid year .. lotta programs and HC's that is not the case .. like .. UGA for example ..
Thanks for the heads up on Caesars... I really don't see anything glaring there to your point, slight value on some B level B12 picks (I like Iowa St @ 14-1).
One that got away, I was planning my hammer for Terps under 7.5, up to -165 juice from -130 at FD.
I'm telling you, hang on to your Boiz in Yellow, I had to take 100-1 and move it to now 60. Schedule makes it near impossible, but they can punch up (and fall down to Bowling Green).
Thanks for the heads up on Caesars... I really don't see anything glaring there to your point, slight value on some B level B12 picks (I like Iowa St @ 14-1).
One that got away, I was planning my hammer for Terps under 7.5, up to -165 juice from -130 at FD.
I'm telling you, hang on to your Boiz in Yellow, I had to take 100-1 and move it to now 60. Schedule makes it near impossible, but they can punch up (and fall down to Bowling Green).
I think we've seen enough and have a setup that allows us to take a 40-1 flyer on this guy .. I don't have some inside scoop on exactly Will Howard xferred to columbus where he's got a bit of competition to be the starting QB but clearly right now seems like the expected top guy.. obvi they lured him w money but I suspect the writing mighta been on the wall that this true FR can just out-game him on the field and even if he retained the starting spot he'd end up sharing more snaps with dude .. and i the ssn didn't start well Avery goes off in one game the calls for a change would come flooding in .. his stock likely wouldn't ever be this high again and cashed in at a good time with a top natty contender... well played!!! .. We obvi have limited snaps with Avery and questions loom on throwing ability but true FR shows up and can play that read option like a fiddle no shortage of the IT factor, year in the system sure thing starter now its not a stretch to think his game makes a big leap this year ..
For this to win we need a real K-STATE dream type season and think we likely benefit w OU and UT gone but now we don't have the BIIIG WIN on the schedule to help us .. don't really have the name recognition yet we're gunna need to see this dude go JOHNNY FOOTBALL early in the season and steal some spotlight .. @Tulane, Arizona, OK.State (vs potential heisman RB dude) and @ Colorado .. (my heisman ticket showdown!) .. would be very helpful if both show up 5-0 and Avery has an EPIC night in boulder .. back end is not as sexy but KU at home could give him some quality air time and realllly need to pile up some stats @Hou, ASU, Cincy .. Season finale FArmageddon in Ames isin't a spot we need to pad his highlight reel .. and Need a conf championship, could be any of like 10 opponents and hope for a barn burner .. we might be a year away but B12 is ripe for a team to step up and RAMPAGE thru it and we got a dude that could potentially lead that effort ..
One kinda helpful thing could be K-State's special teams, it was an unseasonably down year LY they were merely okay.. one great way to not pile up stats and lose games is to be sloppy in that department .. I'll bank on the track record that they'll get that ST mojo back and not kill possessions or lose games give us a chance at a big fun B12 run .. One concern could be a naturally slow pace of play K-State has and leads us to lower stats but if Avery is a total ball hog we should make up for that.. One open question is we really need an HC to use his guy in a way that can bring home the hardware, I can't really say if Kleiman will help facilitate a potential heisman campaign or not .. as noted above I think Coach Prime will be very helpful for that w T-HUNT .. what we need in Manhattan is what LSU coaches did LY, if Avery can go APE then kick open that cage .. what we don't need is whatever Kirby would do lol ..
HEISMAN
AVERY JOHNSON 40-1
I think we've seen enough and have a setup that allows us to take a 40-1 flyer on this guy .. I don't have some inside scoop on exactly Will Howard xferred to columbus where he's got a bit of competition to be the starting QB but clearly right now seems like the expected top guy.. obvi they lured him w money but I suspect the writing mighta been on the wall that this true FR can just out-game him on the field and even if he retained the starting spot he'd end up sharing more snaps with dude .. and i the ssn didn't start well Avery goes off in one game the calls for a change would come flooding in .. his stock likely wouldn't ever be this high again and cashed in at a good time with a top natty contender... well played!!! .. We obvi have limited snaps with Avery and questions loom on throwing ability but true FR shows up and can play that read option like a fiddle no shortage of the IT factor, year in the system sure thing starter now its not a stretch to think his game makes a big leap this year ..
For this to win we need a real K-STATE dream type season and think we likely benefit w OU and UT gone but now we don't have the BIIIG WIN on the schedule to help us .. don't really have the name recognition yet we're gunna need to see this dude go JOHNNY FOOTBALL early in the season and steal some spotlight .. @Tulane, Arizona, OK.State (vs potential heisman RB dude) and @ Colorado .. (my heisman ticket showdown!) .. would be very helpful if both show up 5-0 and Avery has an EPIC night in boulder .. back end is not as sexy but KU at home could give him some quality air time and realllly need to pile up some stats @Hou, ASU, Cincy .. Season finale FArmageddon in Ames isin't a spot we need to pad his highlight reel .. and Need a conf championship, could be any of like 10 opponents and hope for a barn burner .. we might be a year away but B12 is ripe for a team to step up and RAMPAGE thru it and we got a dude that could potentially lead that effort ..
One kinda helpful thing could be K-State's special teams, it was an unseasonably down year LY they were merely okay.. one great way to not pile up stats and lose games is to be sloppy in that department .. I'll bank on the track record that they'll get that ST mojo back and not kill possessions or lose games give us a chance at a big fun B12 run .. One concern could be a naturally slow pace of play K-State has and leads us to lower stats but if Avery is a total ball hog we should make up for that.. One open question is we really need an HC to use his guy in a way that can bring home the hardware, I can't really say if Kleiman will help facilitate a potential heisman campaign or not .. as noted above I think Coach Prime will be very helpful for that w T-HUNT .. what we need in Manhattan is what LSU coaches did LY, if Avery can go APE then kick open that cage .. what we don't need is whatever Kirby would do lol ..
Yeah Joz I wanted like 100 spot to take GT before spring .. word is out and books are huddled around 60ish now .. eh .. maybe I'll throw a hundo on it for fun .. There's very little about Iowa State's profile I don't like, there's some questions for the offense, new OC promoted but I'm realllly nearin decision time w them if ya catch my drift .. FYI .. nudge nudge ..
@JozKnows
Yeah Joz I wanted like 100 spot to take GT before spring .. word is out and books are huddled around 60ish now .. eh .. maybe I'll throw a hundo on it for fun .. There's very little about Iowa State's profile I don't like, there's some questions for the offense, new OC promoted but I'm realllly nearin decision time w them if ya catch my drift .. FYI .. nudge nudge ..
This crazy sport has changed so much in the last few months.
Things that have stuck out to me so far aren’t really the roster moves, but the coaches who’ve moved on and their thoughts on the game. Saban particularly saying that guys only want to know about their playing time and money. 95% of these guys still have so much to earn and they just expect the world right away. Team culture will be huge keys to success. Saban openly accused A&M of this type of NIL stuff pre-NIL, high star roster and spoiler alert… they sucked.
couple teams I’ll look to fade as they don’t have the leadership to deal with the divas, and frankly the motivation just isn’t there for 18-20 year old kids who are handed large sums of money for nothing.
Also think that Michigan @ UW spread will be one I’ll look to pounce on for Michigan. Huge transition year for UW and always believed that defense travels, Michigans at the moment will be one of the nations best
This crazy sport has changed so much in the last few months.
Things that have stuck out to me so far aren’t really the roster moves, but the coaches who’ve moved on and their thoughts on the game. Saban particularly saying that guys only want to know about their playing time and money. 95% of these guys still have so much to earn and they just expect the world right away. Team culture will be huge keys to success. Saban openly accused A&M of this type of NIL stuff pre-NIL, high star roster and spoiler alert… they sucked.
couple teams I’ll look to fade as they don’t have the leadership to deal with the divas, and frankly the motivation just isn’t there for 18-20 year old kids who are handed large sums of money for nothing.
Also think that Michigan @ UW spread will be one I’ll look to pounce on for Michigan. Huge transition year for UW and always believed that defense travels, Michigans at the moment will be one of the nations best
Yeah Hock I saw the quotes I was telling the SDSU guy his natty pick thread like we just saw what the change looks like, large number of teams w a real natty shot in the final few weeks there enough to disrupt the CFP bids where I think normally we'd have at least seen OSU or UGA sneak in and wouldn't have bothered me one bit if the CFP loaded up a rematch for us in the playoff or in the NY6 .. but yeah just too many good lookin teams out there even when FSU gets struck by lightning there's too many ... And Saban musta easily had his best recruiting class ever w the I think 10 5 stars and even maybe w their worst start in forever .. 50-1 natty odds after USF I was laughing about it shoulda been buying!!.. fair to say they were a couple plays short of another natty IMO .. so he calls it a career instead of teeing up a realllly good natty shot w the roster he had .. I'll take his word for it when he says you need a new jack hustler to manage a new jack roster lol .. can bring in all the young talent to win a championship and buy their patience with the best development program on a perennial playoff contender, NFL draft, big money baller dreams .. NIL you can lock those dreams up right away basically risk free if not as an incoming freshman by like Soph year so just end up stuck recruiting your roster every year because players want the big NIL deal and other than a few instances you gotta play in order to get one .. every team can offer starting spots and sign a check .. and now maybe 24 teams AT LEAST have a reasonable shot at the playoff they can also sell so that chip is devalued significantly ..
Big picture I think last year was really a bellwether of the changes in CFB, maybe the one bright side we're not looking at 2 super elite rosters dominating for years at a time.. but maybe an interesting dynamic at play with a couple top rosters able to stave off their decline and maybe more teams become like top 10~ish teams but really the rest of the world is sitting there unable to maintain a strong depth chart of 4 star players... I'll say any of the legacy super teams with a strong roster that can't make a strong natty pitch after this year prob finds themselves back in the pack real quick .. and the realllll drain may come from down below if yer a star on a non playoff contender now you don't have to hope one of a couple programs calls to have a likely playoff dream .. you got a crapload all desperate w spots open ready to sign a check lol .. very tough for the bad P5's and G5 yeah forget it getting gashed big time this cycle ..
@HockeyNight11
Yeah Hock I saw the quotes I was telling the SDSU guy his natty pick thread like we just saw what the change looks like, large number of teams w a real natty shot in the final few weeks there enough to disrupt the CFP bids where I think normally we'd have at least seen OSU or UGA sneak in and wouldn't have bothered me one bit if the CFP loaded up a rematch for us in the playoff or in the NY6 .. but yeah just too many good lookin teams out there even when FSU gets struck by lightning there's too many ... And Saban musta easily had his best recruiting class ever w the I think 10 5 stars and even maybe w their worst start in forever .. 50-1 natty odds after USF I was laughing about it shoulda been buying!!.. fair to say they were a couple plays short of another natty IMO .. so he calls it a career instead of teeing up a realllly good natty shot w the roster he had .. I'll take his word for it when he says you need a new jack hustler to manage a new jack roster lol .. can bring in all the young talent to win a championship and buy their patience with the best development program on a perennial playoff contender, NFL draft, big money baller dreams .. NIL you can lock those dreams up right away basically risk free if not as an incoming freshman by like Soph year so just end up stuck recruiting your roster every year because players want the big NIL deal and other than a few instances you gotta play in order to get one .. every team can offer starting spots and sign a check .. and now maybe 24 teams AT LEAST have a reasonable shot at the playoff they can also sell so that chip is devalued significantly ..
Big picture I think last year was really a bellwether of the changes in CFB, maybe the one bright side we're not looking at 2 super elite rosters dominating for years at a time.. but maybe an interesting dynamic at play with a couple top rosters able to stave off their decline and maybe more teams become like top 10~ish teams but really the rest of the world is sitting there unable to maintain a strong depth chart of 4 star players... I'll say any of the legacy super teams with a strong roster that can't make a strong natty pitch after this year prob finds themselves back in the pack real quick .. and the realllll drain may come from down below if yer a star on a non playoff contender now you don't have to hope one of a couple programs calls to have a likely playoff dream .. you got a crapload all desperate w spots open ready to sign a check lol .. very tough for the bad P5's and G5 yeah forget it getting gashed big time this cycle ..
Oh and yeah BOL w Mich/Wash +11.5 .. eh I'd think about it for 7 might kick myself later I just can't do it .. Mich first roadie is reallllly late and natty rematch .. maybe Mich slaughters em but given the spot I can't be a buyer, at least not right now .. Wash at least keepin the Miss State QB ?.. if not yeah that could get ugly .. he didn't go there to play with this year's TCU team he went to sling it for Deboer.. Jed Fisch is a good replacement but he really needs a guy to sling it so if dude leaves I could see Wash def lookin like his AZ team from his first couple years.. even w DeLaura coming in they were just so horrible until they had the right QB lol ..
@HockeyNight11
Oh and yeah BOL w Mich/Wash +11.5 .. eh I'd think about it for 7 might kick myself later I just can't do it .. Mich first roadie is reallllly late and natty rematch .. maybe Mich slaughters em but given the spot I can't be a buyer, at least not right now .. Wash at least keepin the Miss State QB ?.. if not yeah that could get ugly .. he didn't go there to play with this year's TCU team he went to sling it for Deboer.. Jed Fisch is a good replacement but he really needs a guy to sling it so if dude leaves I could see Wash def lookin like his AZ team from his first couple years.. even w DeLaura coming in they were just so horrible until they had the right QB lol ..
Thanks, was trying to furiously double down on a Charlotte tarmac but you haven't moved the line yet. I'm in on the Clones, will need to look if there are other big 12 "hedges" but the talent level is balanced enough (no Texas) that even a superior team line Utah could lose a one game scenario
@Bridge1
Thanks, was trying to furiously double down on a Charlotte tarmac but you haven't moved the line yet. I'm in on the Clones, will need to look if there are other big 12 "hedges" but the talent level is balanced enough (no Texas) that even a superior team line Utah could lose a one game scenario
I might change my tune on that game by the time it rolls around. We’ll learn a lot about Michigan right off the get this season. Lots of turnover here too but man the depth was unbelievable last year so I don’t expect a ton of drop off. Honestly the backups on the DL who are taking over as starters this year are probably better. LBs should be very good and the secondary should be one of the best - replacing Sainristil will be a tough ask but there’s some guys who have promise there.
Offensively it’s going to be impossible to replace JJ and Corum. I do like the depth at RB and Donovan has only scratched the surface of who he can be imo. TEs will continue to be a strength. The WRs are young but there’s some good ones who’ve been waiting and slowly getting playing time with Tyler Morris, Semaj Morgan, Freddy Moore is drawing great reviews.. wouldn’t mind a transfer in that room though. Not sure what to make of the QB spot, there’s some talented guys and Michigan doesn’t really ask a ton from the position… mostly just don’t do anything stupid lol. OL is a major spot of attrition, but again was deep and lots of dudes step into starter roles who are plenty experienced. Sherrone Moore still here so that’s a big boost for that group. ST should be very good.
One of the reasons I liked UM so much vs UW in the natty was bc I thought UW had no depth and the way Michigan plays so physical I thought would be tough for UW to match for 4Q. Now they have a lot of transfers out and some guys to the league and the depth is an even bigger question mark. Think they could be a team that takes a significant step back at least in 2024 before Fisch gets things moving forward again.
@Bridge1
I might change my tune on that game by the time it rolls around. We’ll learn a lot about Michigan right off the get this season. Lots of turnover here too but man the depth was unbelievable last year so I don’t expect a ton of drop off. Honestly the backups on the DL who are taking over as starters this year are probably better. LBs should be very good and the secondary should be one of the best - replacing Sainristil will be a tough ask but there’s some guys who have promise there.
Offensively it’s going to be impossible to replace JJ and Corum. I do like the depth at RB and Donovan has only scratched the surface of who he can be imo. TEs will continue to be a strength. The WRs are young but there’s some good ones who’ve been waiting and slowly getting playing time with Tyler Morris, Semaj Morgan, Freddy Moore is drawing great reviews.. wouldn’t mind a transfer in that room though. Not sure what to make of the QB spot, there’s some talented guys and Michigan doesn’t really ask a ton from the position… mostly just don’t do anything stupid lol. OL is a major spot of attrition, but again was deep and lots of dudes step into starter roles who are plenty experienced. Sherrone Moore still here so that’s a big boost for that group. ST should be very good.
One of the reasons I liked UM so much vs UW in the natty was bc I thought UW had no depth and the way Michigan plays so physical I thought would be tough for UW to match for 4Q. Now they have a lot of transfers out and some guys to the league and the depth is an even bigger question mark. Think they could be a team that takes a significant step back at least in 2024 before Fisch gets things moving forward again.
Agree buddy the depth was INSANE!!!! I hit UM HARD after that first play in H2 when I saw Wash QB hobbling it was a turkey shoot on him from then on, only real weapon got hurt pretty bad .. idk what the state of the UM roster is but my impression is the depth was very good and they'll be dangerous again .. QB is a big concern in my view.. easy to look at LY and say we just need a game manager type but JJ was legit and dynamic as a QB and really knew how to run that offense .. he could take over a game when they were in trouble like TCU or could just hand it off all game vs Penn St.. Pretty clear they weren't risking him to grab first downs unless they really needed him to and makes sense if you dominate most games and you got Indy xfer guy as a backup and pretty clear mission to win the natty last yr, yeah can't take a risk w JJ until you really have to ..... So lose his QB abilities but a guy who could run the O make it tick.. then tack on that a QB prob gotta play a bigger role this year how much idk but that creates some other questions, how good will the pass pro be?.. WR's? .. another wrinkle when you have such an elite run game its a huge blind spot knowing how strong the OC is/was at drawing up and calling pass plays and now new OC I think so that'll be interesting to see .. feels like that's a huge reason we see the post-natty or post-epic big year decline phenomenon .. even when a QB sticks around were left baffled why the team isin't close to as good and sometimes its just well you had good luck now you have bad luck but sometimes its just like well you were super elite at X last year and that covered deficiencies you had in Y and you really need to rely alot more on Y this year .. Wash probably has that issue / risk more than anyone .. LSU same thing Daniels and those WR's had super elite offense didn't need to know how good their trad run game or OL was Daniels improvised more rushing yards than their top 3 RB's .. best offense in CFB wasn't enough their D was THAT BAD!!!.. think its a wiiide range for where they ends up this year and alot of paths don't lead anywhere close to where models are putting em ..
@HockeyNight11
Agree buddy the depth was INSANE!!!! I hit UM HARD after that first play in H2 when I saw Wash QB hobbling it was a turkey shoot on him from then on, only real weapon got hurt pretty bad .. idk what the state of the UM roster is but my impression is the depth was very good and they'll be dangerous again .. QB is a big concern in my view.. easy to look at LY and say we just need a game manager type but JJ was legit and dynamic as a QB and really knew how to run that offense .. he could take over a game when they were in trouble like TCU or could just hand it off all game vs Penn St.. Pretty clear they weren't risking him to grab first downs unless they really needed him to and makes sense if you dominate most games and you got Indy xfer guy as a backup and pretty clear mission to win the natty last yr, yeah can't take a risk w JJ until you really have to ..... So lose his QB abilities but a guy who could run the O make it tick.. then tack on that a QB prob gotta play a bigger role this year how much idk but that creates some other questions, how good will the pass pro be?.. WR's? .. another wrinkle when you have such an elite run game its a huge blind spot knowing how strong the OC is/was at drawing up and calling pass plays and now new OC I think so that'll be interesting to see .. feels like that's a huge reason we see the post-natty or post-epic big year decline phenomenon .. even when a QB sticks around were left baffled why the team isin't close to as good and sometimes its just well you had good luck now you have bad luck but sometimes its just like well you were super elite at X last year and that covered deficiencies you had in Y and you really need to rely alot more on Y this year .. Wash probably has that issue / risk more than anyone .. LSU same thing Daniels and those WR's had super elite offense didn't need to know how good their trad run game or OL was Daniels improvised more rushing yards than their top 3 RB's .. best offense in CFB wasn't enough their D was THAT BAD!!!.. think its a wiiide range for where they ends up this year and alot of paths don't lead anywhere close to where models are putting em ..
mario effect. 
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