@Bridge1
Thanks, Bridge. Always possible with these guys. The No Tx and E Carolina lines both moved down a point each, 6.5 and 5.5 so waiting to see if they recapture the even number so pass for me for now. One could drive a truck through the E Carolina lines as over is +130 and under is -150. No Tx on the other hand is -115 and -105. Thanks for your input.
INTERCONF CHAMP BALLISTIC PARLAYS
WKY, UGA, BOISE, TOLEDO, TEXAS, SMU .. 498-1
WKY, TOLEDO, BOISE.. 17-1
Think FanD is the only spot to let us parlay these, I played a bunch of long shots in pre-ssn but always want a few fun parlays w only the ultra high weapons grade plutonium conf picks that can combine to go super critical and nuke the sportsbook .. I look for not just the likely to make the champ game but don't want to be saddled later as a huge underdog that'll make for a complicated and costly hedge .. SMU is maybe the odd man out in that regard but the conf schedule is so insanely easy w just 1 tough opponent that they could get HFA for the champ game vs possibly anyone making them easy enough to hedge against .. AAC is more fungible I think there's 5 teams w a great shot at the champ game and all w reasonable shot to win .. FAU at 9-1 is maybe an interesting long shot to add. They have UTSA and Tulane on the schedule but both at home and in good spots, might just need to bag one to make the champ game w a very easy remainder of their conf schedule .. If looking to narrow the parlay down I would drop the AAC and the bigger conferences. I think its very possible for WKY, Boise and Toledo to be 10 pt favs or more, WKY and Boise could be decent favs w a big boost playing at home .. Toledo could be a monster fav even on a neutral field .. 17-1 isin't as sexy but prob makes for a much more relaxed champ weekend.. good luck !!
BRIDGE SPECIAL
CENTRAL MICH ML/U53.5 .. 9.8-1
Usually do all my correlated parlaying at Caesars because they don't fool around w the odds like others do but went w Fanduel here because the ML odds are juicier at +480 and a better total .. CZRs offering +410 / 51.5 giving us +912, FD even w the SGP odds got us +980 .. Even w fun bets you better shop around .. I think we'll find a few Bridge Special ML/Total fun bets to hit week 1 (for fun bucks) since books are really guessing in their attempts to fool around w the totals.. SP+ lines this one up at 47 and my read w both team's QB situation is this total could end up even lower as folks start thinking about it ..
Hard to gauge how solid Kim was in the spring and whether his emergence prompted Thorne to hit the portal .. that's a possibility, and w out a real spring game we'll prob need to wait till week 1 to find out what they got.. I'll say if he wasn't a B10 starter in spring then its hard to view MSU as doing anything but winging it by not adding another QB... Not just winging it w the potential skills Kim but major injury risk w Houser being an even bigger unknown.. If there's still a QB battle going into the ssn we might see both put in for meaningful drives which is fine by me. Add on the throttled WR unit losing stars reed and coleman and not much coming in .. possibly a decent RB's unit, I do like they got Carter from UCONN, but its no sure thing and I expect a heavy dose of the run game in this one.. Nobody can be confident in this offense and nobody surprised w an ugly start this season .. CMU's D LY stunk and they looked like trouble in the pre-ssn w 4 starters back w a very thin and untested coverage group, saw in Phil some guys were changing positions just to have bare min depth, wasn't good .. 9 starters back and big chance for 4th year DC Akey to put something together, wasn't bad in '21 when he had an experienced unit.. At a min we need a D to not be bailing MSU out if their O is really struggling, I think we'll have at least that ..
MSU's D is the strength and maybe better than we remember getting some of their guys back after those Michiganshenanigans LY .. should be stout up front w decent DL's and very strong LB unit ... but even w all them LY the run D numbers weren't good and part of that was because the coverage group reallly stuuuunk baaaad and that only projects better when we use the 'they can't suck that bad again.. right?!!' model. But best DB's are gone and the prospects of a much better D overall seem rather tenuous... CMU's offense was able to find some 'Legs' even w Richardson and Lew Nichols injured in various games or otherwise weren't having the magic of the '21 season.. they have 2 very decent running QB's in Immanuel Jr and Bauer. They aren't expected to be good passing but we can't fully judge them on LY both were thrusted into action and not given many pass att's .. But Mcilwain w 2 strong dual QBs and an OL that can block for them which is right up his ally .. Immanuel really looks like an explosive wildcat QB, and J-MAC has shown up every year w a surprise awesome RB so maybe a very dynamic run game .. the hope is they can rumble for a few scores and keep it a game in Q4 much the same way a very crappy W.Mich team did LY. Recall Thorne and the good WR's and everyone on D were in a real dogfight w the Broncs well into Q4 before it slipped away .. Tucker dialed up a late bomb for the miracle cover but totally misleading final score .. J-MAC gets alot out of his roster even special teams never had a bad one since taking over.. could be huge for us in a close game .. I'd also expect a ton of CMU fans showing up in East Lansing w the Chips band in tow looking for a slugfest shocker.. if there are any non-delusional Sparty fans left they won't be all that shocked if it happens .. good luck!
@steponaduck
I didn't see their spring game but sounds like plenty of questions on O .. although I think it got rained on pretty hard if I'm remembering right maybe that's part of it ... For big bucks I kinda want to see what it looks like .. end of the day I realllly don't want to talk you in or out of a monster play like that lol .. odds are nasty in deed but agree that number is too .. 
@Bridge1
the consensus line being offered almost everywhere is 5.5, so getting 6.5 seems like a steal. and in looking at the schedule, I just see to many tough games
Michigan
Marshall
App St
SMU
UTSA
Tulane
FAU
just soooo much to overcome losing all of their pieces on offense + long time starting QB. I dont see the transfers providing much to be excited about in the way of SU wins. they might be okay ATS this season catching a ton of points but I dont see the way they get to 7-5. seems 5-7 is waaaaay more likely in this case.
@steponaduck
Yeah dude I agree w all that .. I def got a decent hit on em at 5.5 and yeah that extra game is a killer .. and its like assuming they were to beat Navy for their 6th win its a sure thing dead spot vs Tulsa .. Golden Hurricane maybe taking a Golden Shower every game this year but I'd def have ECU on upset alert in that spot .. yeah road to 7 is real tough ..
SMALLER
ALABAMA / OLE MISS +15.5 (GOY)
Rebs so close to an epic romp thru the conf last year and it all sorta fell apart at least in perception after that big LSU comeback win, which was the only game they were out yarded .. not saying they had Bama in hand but I'll say 3 4th down stops in bama territory was the diff there, shut their run game down Young had a bad day .. that was @Ole Miss LY and came after Bama's big game vs LSU but that was also a bama loss and this certainly wasn't a big revenge payback spot we're used to from Saban, real skin of their teeth win .. Ole Miss had and likely has some clear deficiencies again this year but this is def not a team you hand that many points to I think the offense looks fine maybe better and maybe some questions on D but the improvement the last 2 yrs is noticeable and could turn one key and be really good .. That could be adding Pete Golding who was Bama's DC the last 5 years, at a min he'll have plenty of inside info and he's a heck of a coordinator having Bama consistently well in the top 10 and a few times elite top 5 .. 9 starters back on O and 7 on D and slew of xfers I'm not gunna pretend to know .. The O looks real good again w multiple good TE's, Zakhari Franklin from UTSA and AA RB Judkins and just lose 1 from a line that gave up under 4% sacks, had the best run game they've had maybe ever LY .. They did lose Zach Evans backup RB and im not convinced Ulysses Bentley is a sure thing backup replacement but they have a few other dudes now and its not as big a concern ..
Ole Miss heads to Tuscaloosa after stints vs FCS Mercer, @Tulane and Georgia Tech .. Bama w Mid T, Texas and, strangely, @USF before this game .. idk why they'd schedule that in my view it feels like an unnecessary distraction .. I suspect this line will be under 2 TD's when it rolls around Ole Miss' offense was pure fire to start last year and think they roll early again .. and decent chance Bama will have at least a mild scare vs UT making them appear a bit beatable .. Kiffin will at least have a good tape showing Bama's big game battle plans .. this line feels a bit out of place 20-35 is a winner I think part of that is from OM's drubbing in vs T-Tech in the bowl .. I don't have inside info but I don't think Kiffin cares one lick about bowl games his mind is prob on the portal before the season is over and likely unprepared, not the case for T-Tech whose showed up ready to rock in B2B bowl games .. still out yarded the Red Raiders 558-484.. SP+ has it at 13.5, seen other public models going lower 7-10 .. I think we can split the diff about 11 or so but also seems like wayyy more downside risk w Bama's O this year between the QB's the WR's and the new OC.. don't think they can rely too much on D in this one at least not to win by a huge margin .. good luck!
@robtri
Brother. They were +3 at BYU last year.
they also historically play up against good comp and play down against bad comp. But they replace everyone on offense. Hard to replace all those playmakers. They could literally start 1-4 before their bye week and it only gets harder.
im going to play ECU under 6.5 190
@Bridge1
Yeah, not good news for the offensive punch and a distraction. Surprisingly they were pass happy last year with Sean Tucker back, probably hurt his stock, as well as him not gliding as well in the new offense (which was more effective for the wins column, btw). Cuse came out properly priced this year IMO so I was off of them after we discussed. I think 6.5 is a bit bullish actually, but 7-5, 6-6, 5-7 seems right. I went with you on Georgia Tech and I played the Dukies OVER 6 at -120 for ACC. With all the returning production in a lacking middle class ACC, I don't see how Duke isn't dialing in a bowl game. Love the momentum off last year's season end too.
Above: I did hit ECU U6.5 -160 a bit ago. I see no path unless Houston has a miracle reshaping the roster. That is not consistent with how he incrementally built the winner. I think their floor is certainly higher now but AAC is rife with parity and the talent level at ECU is down a peg, agree with Bridge on portal not helping much for them.
My love affairs with Texas Tech and the impotent Wyoming Cowboys (+1300) is well documented. Not in love with my Tech # at 7, but I was going in on them regardless for the win total and +1200.
A few others locked (won't repost if I tailed Bridge or got inspired from others here):
Purdue under 5.5 (BetMGM).. not sold on Walters. Upside is he was smart enough to maintain pass heavy roots on offense but I think there is a lot of cultural change required to play how he wants. I think the cupboard is not stocked for a transition like that, especially with 4 starters back on D. Purdue is not recruiting at a level to offset a possible step back in scheme. Crossovers vs OSU/Mich are 2 auto Ls, and the OOC while winnable is also not guaranteed (Fresno, Va tech, Cuse). This bet also depends on the West, where I think we're gonna get more out of Wisconsin, Minny and Iowa. @Neb and @NW not gimmes if the offense is not clicking. I think they'll probably beat Indiana at home but it's a rivalry game, and are we sure about a talent disparity?
South Al +450 for the Belt.. (BetRivers)
Not the odds I was hoping for but certainly better than at other shops. They return enough on offense to make me think the single digit slugfest vs Troy can flip the other way. Defense was and will be nasty. Not reading into the WKU debacle, styles make fights. Not sold on the East with CC reshaping and App St on a slow regression. Troy and Louisiana look to be the main competition, with Southern Miss a possible long shot. This feels like UTSA a few years ago, but without the back season hot streak.. enough returning to reality go into another gear.
@JozKnows
I think the OC Anae had Cuse less reliant on the run game .. ASAC Schrader hit 52% in '21 and boom 65% LY, threw a bunch more w a longer yds / comp .. masssssive jump, if only we could figure out whose gunna explode like that this year .. and couple WR's burst on the scene, Gadsden became a major NFL prospect .. Tucker and Shrader were like nearly all of the runs .. Le Quint Dicky only 41 carries and he started the bowl game .. I liked seein Juwan Price at NMSU but only 8 carries LY .. sounds like Quint is appealing the suspension, maybe judge hands down some historically contexted climate justice and makes the football team play him this year.. you never know these days .. they were very likely gunna be less effective losing Tucker and some quality pieces of the OL .. maybe not such a hit losing Anae w the QB coach taking over at OC he did great w Armstrong and Perkins at UVA .. but yeah if Quint is out think it'll def cause trouble .. would def keep an eye on Shrader's injury progress, out for spring, backup Lamson left to Stanford and he looked great zingin it.... Del Rio still looks straight up awful .. I took a small hit of Cuse under 6.5 best odds I could find .. just so much possible trouble and say they beat GT for 6 wins finale vs Wake maybe a down spot and Deacs maybe needing that for a bowl .. could backfire, we'll see ..
@Bridge1
I can come around, forgot about Shrader injury being until summer. One thing I would look at to confirm is the front 7. Syracuse did a fantastic job of hiding their lack of size upfront last year by playing defense that schemed well to disallow long runs, playing for turnovers, and by leaning hard into offense (jumping on teams). By H2 they weren't able to thrive as much offensively and teams could wear them down. I'll look into the defense, which was good on the back end but personnel limited up front (may get some sacks but can't stack up). If we see less there again... You may be onto something
Ok thought exercise. I have been channeling into Big Ten and I'm coming around on Ohio State Under 10.5. I actually never thought this would happen in the Day era but!
Assuming they can win in AA seems like a mistake now. Of course they have the talent but they've been out muscled and out classes last two years in the Big Game. Michigan returns a ton.
The RB room is 5 star, but... They haven't had success running against Michigan and Penn State the past 2 years.
The WR room is probably the best in the country but... Are we sure McCord can step in and continue the run of elite college QB play? Like right away? Because they have to go to South Bend in September.
The OLine, especially OT seems problematic for the first time in the Day era. They were looking at portal guys in the spring... That does not bode well for playing Michigan and Penn St. Stroud made some split second plays last year (namely to Harrison) at Beaver to turn that game. Same vs Georgia.
On defense I suspect they'll be good with some questions in the back end. DEs are disruptive and DT is stacked. LBers return but to say they gobbled up the run games at the end of the year would be... Ambitious. Back group has talent and incoming transfers but I'm not sure they can man up, which was the case last year. When they've played great offenses they've buckled, that didn't change last year. They can dominate 10 teams and not cover this bet.
@ND, tricky @Wiscy spot which they likely sleepwalk into a win, PSU and @Mich are the spots. The rest are wins for sure. Are they going 4-0 or 3-1 in those games?
Could bet "No Playoff" at -105 instead, may lean that way.
Thoughts?
@Bridge1
Re Cuse.
Rocky Long surprising DC hire, and a good one. They will be all right but looking at the depth he may have challenges if the offense takes a step back (they do have outside weapons) and the forced turnovers aren't maintained .
Backers and safeties are back and look to be solid. DEs are still tiny and starting DT looks to be 260 unless a 300+ transfer works out in the trench. But that's ONE guy! Corners transferred up so there is some uncertainty but some skill on the outside (incoming xFers too).
I'll tail under 6.5, wish DK would let me wager over $20, other we're looking at semi prohibitive juice (-139 and higher)
@steponaduck
I got the same treatment as Bridge. They will limit you in certain areas or altogether if you start posting too many wins in a category. NCAAF futures are extremely manicured for me, like max $20 on win totals and $10 on conference futures.
The irony is it just meant I went elsewhere to lose money in NBA 
I'm not sure if long term this helps them control cost or loses too many customers.
@JozKnows
I played it under for pretty much the reasons you state. Those 4 games they could lose. They have to replace Stroud. Their D has been very average in big games. They seem to be slipping slightly under Day though they certainly could have beat Georgia in playoff last year and probably should have. But replacing a stud QB is huge to me. Right now Michigan, PSU and ND will have the better QB on the field. Bama has same issue with Young and also losing 2 other top 12 picks.
Also played Michigan Over same total - their OOC is a joke and think they could lose only to @PSU and OSU - just have to win one. Also took PSU +10 at OSU. Just 1u plays - not going to get rich going against such talent level. GL
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