Spring is in the air and the soldiers are reporting for basic training so time for us to come out of hibernation, emotional dormancy, the boring part of the year or whatever you call it ..
OHIO STATE 8.5-1 NATTY
Carrying that over from my brief post-ssn thread early Jan because seemed the odds wouldn't stay above 8 for too long and wouldn't be interested at 5 or 6-1 with a couple supremely talented BOHEMOUTHS UGA and Bama out there next year .. won't repost the write up but lotta guys coming back for the Bucks and while not the most talent-laden roster its gunna be stacked with proven quality with a few of their leaders coming back that coulda gone to the league this year .. big picture the things I think make this a strong possibility is we need a QB prospect to emerge, preferably former very very high 5-star McCord, to step into the big shoes there. We need Knowles to spank the D into another massive step up from what was a crappy P5 D in '21 to a very good top 10-15ish finish LY and now another big jump to elite top 5 or so.. great position to do that and has done it with less at OK.State ... Need some good luck in the health department which they got the opposite of LY.. and otherwise just a team remembering how close they were LY and to keep believing they can get there again and leave no doubt this time .. we'll see but besides UGA, Bama, OSU I don't see toooo many credible teams that can beat two of my top 3 in the playoffs and walk away w a championship .. think Michigan, LSU, Texas would be my 3 wildcards with a shot to make things interesting ..
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Gents,
Spring is in the air and the soldiers are reporting for basic training so time for us to come out of hibernation, emotional dormancy, the boring part of the year or whatever you call it ..
OHIO STATE 8.5-1 NATTY
Carrying that over from my brief post-ssn thread early Jan because seemed the odds wouldn't stay above 8 for too long and wouldn't be interested at 5 or 6-1 with a couple supremely talented BOHEMOUTHS UGA and Bama out there next year .. won't repost the write up but lotta guys coming back for the Bucks and while not the most talent-laden roster its gunna be stacked with proven quality with a few of their leaders coming back that coulda gone to the league this year .. big picture the things I think make this a strong possibility is we need a QB prospect to emerge, preferably former very very high 5-star McCord, to step into the big shoes there. We need Knowles to spank the D into another massive step up from what was a crappy P5 D in '21 to a very good top 10-15ish finish LY and now another big jump to elite top 5 or so.. great position to do that and has done it with less at OK.State ... Need some good luck in the health department which they got the opposite of LY.. and otherwise just a team remembering how close they were LY and to keep believing they can get there again and leave no doubt this time .. we'll see but besides UGA, Bama, OSU I don't see toooo many credible teams that can beat two of my top 3 in the playoffs and walk away w a championship .. think Michigan, LSU, Texas would be my 3 wildcards with a shot to make things interesting ..
Thanks bridge! Always enjoy your threads! I found a 9 to 1 a few months ago and jumped on it. Can't wait to see your season win totals! We gonna make FanDuel apologize lol ??
Thanks bridge! Always enjoy your threads! I found a 9 to 1 a few months ago and jumped on it. Can't wait to see your season win totals! We gonna make FanDuel apologize lol ??
And on that note lets take one of the 'interestings' too ..
TEXAS 30-1 NATTY
Lotta ways to not work out but I can get on board with these odds and the potential prospects .. gotta consider the youth, inexperience and sheer number of hits to the starters and depth from injuries LY and still came out w maybe top 15ish offense and really solved a puzzle w the D landing inside the top 10 .. going into the year losing WR's Nayor and Hall basically for the year along w key OL's and man did it just seem in a few very candid interviews that Sark's head was about to explode wondering if he even had enough true FR to fill his 2-deep .. ugly place to be knowing bama was coming to town in a few weeks. But vs an elite team and even w Ewers injured they still coulda/shoulda cracked the Bama code as 20 point dogs .. and 2 other losses on the year they beat themselves IMO @OK.State was in hand Ewers inexperience showed up and T-Tech was pure freak loss .. legit lost to TCU was the only reg-ssn loss that didn't slip thru their fingers .. I discount bowl performances almost entirely but would say if they romped Wash there's no way we'd be seein anything close to 30-1 and while the hype machine is of course in overdrive there's plenty of decent odds out there for UT still because they weren't hot at year end missing the champ game and losing vs UW in their bowl .. they lose the champ game and romp the bowl and its hype overdrive and unplayable 10-1 odds I think ..
The main thing to like is actually that the D is wayyyy ahead of schedule massive leap LY and a young group we have to like the prospects of them fielding maybe a stronger, deeper more consistent unit even if they lose some high NFL draft picks, takes alot more than a couple 1st rounders to crack into the top 10 so think we can trust the formula is there and they won't massively regress ... We're left with the big wonder of whether Sark can push that O into elite status which was the whole reason he was hired and they're still a big jump away from hitting that kinda stride.. They do lose some solid guys to the NFL but which top quality RB in the world wouldn't line up to be next there after sending 2 to the pros. They found some young gems at WR and we'll see if Nayor can get back healthy this year .. headcase Hall stuck in the portal still isin't a surprise, Saban knew to cut his losses w that brat.. no shortage of potentially elite WR's interested in catching balls from what Sark has in his QB room, let alone the NIL money, prestige, team trajectory etc .. just no indication they'll lack quality and potential elite skill player additions to a now pretty experienced offense thats also way more stable in their depth chart and hopefully stays healthy .. just a lotta likely rebounds should bouncing to the offenses way this year ..
Schedule has the trip to Bama on it but I don't see any glaring ugly spot bombs on their schedule .. Bay, OU(N), Hou, TCU, ISU isin't that daunting, TCU / ISU do come B2B late in the year which could be tricky and if they're still rollin after that stretch and thinking champ game and playoffs you could imagine being less prepared for the final game at home vs a pretty dangerous T-Tech team which also comes on a short week .. Also we can't ever underestimate the potential for UT or OU to blow a game in and around their annual showdown.. the good news there is UT has KU at home the week before and have a well placed bye after and the lead in to the final tough stretch is a roadie to houston and BYU at home which is about as favorable of a setup they coulda got before the more difficult final 4 game stretch .. besides roadies to Bama and TCU I don't see any other very dangerous games ..
And on that note lets take one of the 'interestings' too ..
TEXAS 30-1 NATTY
Lotta ways to not work out but I can get on board with these odds and the potential prospects .. gotta consider the youth, inexperience and sheer number of hits to the starters and depth from injuries LY and still came out w maybe top 15ish offense and really solved a puzzle w the D landing inside the top 10 .. going into the year losing WR's Nayor and Hall basically for the year along w key OL's and man did it just seem in a few very candid interviews that Sark's head was about to explode wondering if he even had enough true FR to fill his 2-deep .. ugly place to be knowing bama was coming to town in a few weeks. But vs an elite team and even w Ewers injured they still coulda/shoulda cracked the Bama code as 20 point dogs .. and 2 other losses on the year they beat themselves IMO @OK.State was in hand Ewers inexperience showed up and T-Tech was pure freak loss .. legit lost to TCU was the only reg-ssn loss that didn't slip thru their fingers .. I discount bowl performances almost entirely but would say if they romped Wash there's no way we'd be seein anything close to 30-1 and while the hype machine is of course in overdrive there's plenty of decent odds out there for UT still because they weren't hot at year end missing the champ game and losing vs UW in their bowl .. they lose the champ game and romp the bowl and its hype overdrive and unplayable 10-1 odds I think ..
The main thing to like is actually that the D is wayyyy ahead of schedule massive leap LY and a young group we have to like the prospects of them fielding maybe a stronger, deeper more consistent unit even if they lose some high NFL draft picks, takes alot more than a couple 1st rounders to crack into the top 10 so think we can trust the formula is there and they won't massively regress ... We're left with the big wonder of whether Sark can push that O into elite status which was the whole reason he was hired and they're still a big jump away from hitting that kinda stride.. They do lose some solid guys to the NFL but which top quality RB in the world wouldn't line up to be next there after sending 2 to the pros. They found some young gems at WR and we'll see if Nayor can get back healthy this year .. headcase Hall stuck in the portal still isin't a surprise, Saban knew to cut his losses w that brat.. no shortage of potentially elite WR's interested in catching balls from what Sark has in his QB room, let alone the NIL money, prestige, team trajectory etc .. just no indication they'll lack quality and potential elite skill player additions to a now pretty experienced offense thats also way more stable in their depth chart and hopefully stays healthy .. just a lotta likely rebounds should bouncing to the offenses way this year ..
Schedule has the trip to Bama on it but I don't see any glaring ugly spot bombs on their schedule .. Bay, OU(N), Hou, TCU, ISU isin't that daunting, TCU / ISU do come B2B late in the year which could be tricky and if they're still rollin after that stretch and thinking champ game and playoffs you could imagine being less prepared for the final game at home vs a pretty dangerous T-Tech team which also comes on a short week .. Also we can't ever underestimate the potential for UT or OU to blow a game in and around their annual showdown.. the good news there is UT has KU at home the week before and have a well placed bye after and the lead in to the final tough stretch is a roadie to houston and BYU at home which is about as favorable of a setup they coulda got before the more difficult final 4 game stretch .. besides roadies to Bama and TCU I don't see any other very dangerous games ..
Was on the fence between UT and LSU for my long shot but had 30-1 at fan duel and 33-1 at BOL those are likely dropping to the high 20's now .. Def shop around but to grab UT or any real party crasher I'd want as close to 30-1 as I could get because its not just getting there it's the potential to hedge out that really backstops and ensures we land a payday .. Recall TCU's odds were around 16-1 even after making the playoffs and they were 40-1 when folks started realizing they might have a chance and were putting money down .. t'was a rather unsexy hedge out opportunity until they got passed Michigan and even then not fun to hedge out of a big dog in the champ game and easy to just end up burning your ticket in that situation ..
Totally not worth it taking UT or another party crasher unless our ticket is backstopped by decently low odds heading into the playoffs IMO... Even w a clear loss @Bama there would be A-LOTTTTA time to romp around the B12 building that power rating and looking much improved since week 2 of the season and the hope there is they could still sandblast their way thru the B-12 and look a clear cut above the conference and what TCU was last year .. basically have to sense that UT either could have beat bama if the game in week 2 was on a neutral site or if not then look vastly improved enough by year end to think they could do that and I think there's a reasonably decent possibility that scenario happens and they're 6 or maybe 5-1 heading into the playoffs .. not 16 like TCU or Cincy lol ..
Maybe the better way to play that scenario is hold your money till after UT plays bama and see if after a loss maybe some dummy books throw something juicy out there like 40-1 .. of course if you wait for that you might be kicking yourself because if UT can keep it within a score at Bama, and GOY spread at 9.5 doesn't hate that idea, well then the odds drop pretty quick after that .. and also have to consider the money shot scenario of what happens if UT can do the unthinkable and walk out of Tuscaloosa w a W .. unlikely sure but we're not sure what bama has at QB or WR yet and entirely possible that hampers them this year esp early on .. and if so it'll be tough to look at the rest of UT's schedule and have doubts about them at least making the playoffs.. and they certainly should bolster that notion, and their natty odds, until that late tough stretch I was talking about .. that would put us into a virtual lock to either cash out a big futures payday by as early as week 3 .. it'll be a fun day of trading if that happens!
TEXAS NATTY Futures talk Cont'd ..
Was on the fence between UT and LSU for my long shot but had 30-1 at fan duel and 33-1 at BOL those are likely dropping to the high 20's now .. Def shop around but to grab UT or any real party crasher I'd want as close to 30-1 as I could get because its not just getting there it's the potential to hedge out that really backstops and ensures we land a payday .. Recall TCU's odds were around 16-1 even after making the playoffs and they were 40-1 when folks started realizing they might have a chance and were putting money down .. t'was a rather unsexy hedge out opportunity until they got passed Michigan and even then not fun to hedge out of a big dog in the champ game and easy to just end up burning your ticket in that situation ..
Totally not worth it taking UT or another party crasher unless our ticket is backstopped by decently low odds heading into the playoffs IMO... Even w a clear loss @Bama there would be A-LOTTTTA time to romp around the B12 building that power rating and looking much improved since week 2 of the season and the hope there is they could still sandblast their way thru the B-12 and look a clear cut above the conference and what TCU was last year .. basically have to sense that UT either could have beat bama if the game in week 2 was on a neutral site or if not then look vastly improved enough by year end to think they could do that and I think there's a reasonably decent possibility that scenario happens and they're 6 or maybe 5-1 heading into the playoffs .. not 16 like TCU or Cincy lol ..
Maybe the better way to play that scenario is hold your money till after UT plays bama and see if after a loss maybe some dummy books throw something juicy out there like 40-1 .. of course if you wait for that you might be kicking yourself because if UT can keep it within a score at Bama, and GOY spread at 9.5 doesn't hate that idea, well then the odds drop pretty quick after that .. and also have to consider the money shot scenario of what happens if UT can do the unthinkable and walk out of Tuscaloosa w a W .. unlikely sure but we're not sure what bama has at QB or WR yet and entirely possible that hampers them this year esp early on .. and if so it'll be tough to look at the rest of UT's schedule and have doubts about them at least making the playoffs.. and they certainly should bolster that notion, and their natty odds, until that late tough stretch I was talking about .. that would put us into a virtual lock to either cash out a big futures payday by as early as week 3 .. it'll be a fun day of trading if that happens!
And a few notes on LSU my other outside shot favorite that I can't bring myself to bet on .. there are reasons to like about the prospects of them building on last year's success and becoming a real SEC BEAST this year .. but the odds around 15i-20ish are just too low .. I have concerns maybe we've seen the best we're gunna get from Jalon Daniels and while he's got some good stuff but might not see any real improvement or worse see some regression in his game this year which wouldn't be good .. also the schedule is quite nasty w FSU (in Orlando this time) and could get off on the wrong foot in week 1 .. roadies to Miss.St, Ole Miss, Mizz and Bama, nothing easy about it .. recall Mizzoo nearly pulled a shocker at home LY vs UGA and this spot is a similar max effort monster home game and comes right after a roadie to Ole Miss, just a real gnarly spot .. Going to Bama and Saban seeking revenge is a real double whammy and then get florida the week after .. The easiest conf game might be home vs Texas A&M in the finale but recall they lost to them by 15 LY .. maybe they wanted to save themselves for the locked in champ game but thats kinda the point, elite teams don't have tank season finale rivalry games because they are hyper focused on how to tank their conf champ game .. too many traps in the schedule to expect a division run and even if they make it UGA is prob too much for them again .. maybe only path to the playoffs is to sneak in with an 11-1 record and don't win their division but that just seems equally as unlikely as them winning the conference ..
Same thing with Michigan, punching B2B playoff tickets plus massive ret pro has made them unplayable at 10-1 in my view .. the main prob for me is regardless of how elite their run game gets if they don't have a corps of elite WR's it doesn't seem feasible to get past Bama or UGA and they might have to get past both of them .. only reason OSU makes the cut is we've seen how even short handed vs UGA w Njigba out and star TE injured early the Bucks WR corps that is returning does make them competitive at that level and Harrison may be the first WR off the board in '24 and think its 2 other proven stars plus their TE is coming back and we know they'll likely have one or two emerge from their depth chart every year .. and my picks may just be burned money because while much was made about their draft and portal losses their roster is 10 5-stars deeper w the freshman class and grabbed the top 2 juco's plus Saban maybe the best sniper in the portal .. and we'll probably discover that UGA's B2B champ year was in fact just the 'reload year' everyone thought it might be ..
Natty talk cont'd ..
And a few notes on LSU my other outside shot favorite that I can't bring myself to bet on .. there are reasons to like about the prospects of them building on last year's success and becoming a real SEC BEAST this year .. but the odds around 15i-20ish are just too low .. I have concerns maybe we've seen the best we're gunna get from Jalon Daniels and while he's got some good stuff but might not see any real improvement or worse see some regression in his game this year which wouldn't be good .. also the schedule is quite nasty w FSU (in Orlando this time) and could get off on the wrong foot in week 1 .. roadies to Miss.St, Ole Miss, Mizz and Bama, nothing easy about it .. recall Mizzoo nearly pulled a shocker at home LY vs UGA and this spot is a similar max effort monster home game and comes right after a roadie to Ole Miss, just a real gnarly spot .. Going to Bama and Saban seeking revenge is a real double whammy and then get florida the week after .. The easiest conf game might be home vs Texas A&M in the finale but recall they lost to them by 15 LY .. maybe they wanted to save themselves for the locked in champ game but thats kinda the point, elite teams don't have tank season finale rivalry games because they are hyper focused on how to tank their conf champ game .. too many traps in the schedule to expect a division run and even if they make it UGA is prob too much for them again .. maybe only path to the playoffs is to sneak in with an 11-1 record and don't win their division but that just seems equally as unlikely as them winning the conference ..
Same thing with Michigan, punching B2B playoff tickets plus massive ret pro has made them unplayable at 10-1 in my view .. the main prob for me is regardless of how elite their run game gets if they don't have a corps of elite WR's it doesn't seem feasible to get past Bama or UGA and they might have to get past both of them .. only reason OSU makes the cut is we've seen how even short handed vs UGA w Njigba out and star TE injured early the Bucks WR corps that is returning does make them competitive at that level and Harrison may be the first WR off the board in '24 and think its 2 other proven stars plus their TE is coming back and we know they'll likely have one or two emerge from their depth chart every year .. and my picks may just be burned money because while much was made about their draft and portal losses their roster is 10 5-stars deeper w the freshman class and grabbed the top 2 juco's plus Saban maybe the best sniper in the portal .. and we'll probably discover that UGA's B2B champ year was in fact just the 'reload year' everyone thought it might be ..
Personally i like Oklahoma (last year i liked ohio st, year before georgia). OU offense should absolutely humm, schedule isn’t all that tough and another year under Venables should help.
Personally i like Oklahoma (last year i liked ohio st, year before georgia). OU offense should absolutely humm, schedule isn’t all that tough and another year under Venables should help.
Yeah I def have an eye on OU to improve this year but that's not saying much .. it was a tall order for Venables LY after Riley took whatever he wanted w him to USC and tons of other prospects scattered about a rough year made sense .. and OU could bounce back and be competitive in the B12 very possible .. but what I thought could be a possible problem this year became a total bomb when the move to the SEC was pushed up to next year .. the only goal for them I can imagine is developing an SEC caliber roster so they can at least be competitive next year but realistically might take till 2025 .. hard to imagine that coincides with putting your best 22 players on the field every week this year .. idk how extreme they're going w the roster makeover but it did sound like the coaches have been encouraging players to portal out and im guessing its mostly to do w a plan to develop their young prospects this year and make room for better recruits Venables can pull in ..
I do think if they thought there was a playoff roster to be had this year they'd do what they could to make a run at it but besides trying to move guys out there's other tells like Theo Wease their best WR hit the portal, if they were serious about a run they'd pay him whatever to stay and we'd see other real big names coming in, but no indication of that ..
Obvi im making a few assumptions but I think big picture is the roster development is way more important than the on field success this year. If they go to the SEC looking like a half cocked Big12 team then it opens alot of unfortunate roads for them over the next decade .. look at the other B12'ers that moved anywhere Mizzoo went to 2 SEC championships early on and been lucky to make a bowl ever since .. A&M w all the money and resources hasn't done d!ck since the Johnny years .. Neb and Colorado beyond pathetic .. gotta do whatever they can to not do that!!!
@young1jesus
Yeah I def have an eye on OU to improve this year but that's not saying much .. it was a tall order for Venables LY after Riley took whatever he wanted w him to USC and tons of other prospects scattered about a rough year made sense .. and OU could bounce back and be competitive in the B12 very possible .. but what I thought could be a possible problem this year became a total bomb when the move to the SEC was pushed up to next year .. the only goal for them I can imagine is developing an SEC caliber roster so they can at least be competitive next year but realistically might take till 2025 .. hard to imagine that coincides with putting your best 22 players on the field every week this year .. idk how extreme they're going w the roster makeover but it did sound like the coaches have been encouraging players to portal out and im guessing its mostly to do w a plan to develop their young prospects this year and make room for better recruits Venables can pull in ..
I do think if they thought there was a playoff roster to be had this year they'd do what they could to make a run at it but besides trying to move guys out there's other tells like Theo Wease their best WR hit the portal, if they were serious about a run they'd pay him whatever to stay and we'd see other real big names coming in, but no indication of that ..
Obvi im making a few assumptions but I think big picture is the roster development is way more important than the on field success this year. If they go to the SEC looking like a half cocked Big12 team then it opens alot of unfortunate roads for them over the next decade .. look at the other B12'ers that moved anywhere Mizzoo went to 2 SEC championships early on and been lucky to make a bowl ever since .. A&M w all the money and resources hasn't done d!ck since the Johnny years .. Neb and Colorado beyond pathetic .. gotta do whatever they can to not do that!!!
^^ and should mention I would have no trouble lumping Texas in w OU if I thought they were in the same roster gambit .. I was hoping both would be a bit desperate before the SEC move and between roster development needs and every B12 team throwing their hardest goodbye punch at em that we would have fun fading both of em this year .. Looking back UT really hit the timing perfect bringing Sark on board and going thru the roster reconstruction pains right away .. recall in '21 they ended the 5-6 and 2 wins were vs G5'ers .. they lost 6 conf games in a row including to Kansas whose only other win was to an FCS team .. didn't have a single NFL prospect .. but they timed up the roster gutting just right for NIL and had that money all lined up and nailed it in recruiting and the portal .. considering LY was a pretty hard core development year playing the young guys the future feels good ..
Good news for OU is they have the right guy, Riley was the right guy for B12 success but Venables knows what champ caliber looks like and how to build to it and has support in the program to do what has to be done early on .. he and Bob Stoops actually go wayyyy back, see link on where they came from, it def clues us into what their mentality is for the task ahead.. young Brent credited at the very end was part of it .. totally awesome docu!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIkW5da-ma0
^^ and should mention I would have no trouble lumping Texas in w OU if I thought they were in the same roster gambit .. I was hoping both would be a bit desperate before the SEC move and between roster development needs and every B12 team throwing their hardest goodbye punch at em that we would have fun fading both of em this year .. Looking back UT really hit the timing perfect bringing Sark on board and going thru the roster reconstruction pains right away .. recall in '21 they ended the 5-6 and 2 wins were vs G5'ers .. they lost 6 conf games in a row including to Kansas whose only other win was to an FCS team .. didn't have a single NFL prospect .. but they timed up the roster gutting just right for NIL and had that money all lined up and nailed it in recruiting and the portal .. considering LY was a pretty hard core development year playing the young guys the future feels good ..
Good news for OU is they have the right guy, Riley was the right guy for B12 success but Venables knows what champ caliber looks like and how to build to it and has support in the program to do what has to be done early on .. he and Bob Stoops actually go wayyyy back, see link on where they came from, it def clues us into what their mentality is for the task ahead.. young Brent credited at the very end was part of it .. totally awesome docu!
Got some P5 Conference futures up at caesars for us to creep on .. nothing too wild, could probably trail the top teams based on SP+ a few of the top / notable or interesting ones listed below .. Note that while most US books tend to take the 'wait / copy' approach Caesars has their own oddsmakers and we can sometimes find a decent and sometimes wildly better deal browsing w them .. I booked a ton of pre-ssn action there LY finding the best odds and RSW's and their numbers were often posted after other houses had more/less established a number for the market already and they still dropped the best number out for us .. happy to speak highly of them because they were such a great option and not just tailing and truing their numbers to everyone elses .. Caesar if your listening you can DM me about sponsorship opportunities lol ..
That said I think these P5 futures are pretty scrunched down .. certainly a risk posting first and there's no reason to be super competitive w no competition around .. but we def get a sense of the conf strength and order of finish a decent oddsmaker is projecting so w/o/f/a ..
CONF FUTURES
Got some P5 Conference futures up at caesars for us to creep on .. nothing too wild, could probably trail the top teams based on SP+ a few of the top / notable or interesting ones listed below .. Note that while most US books tend to take the 'wait / copy' approach Caesars has their own oddsmakers and we can sometimes find a decent and sometimes wildly better deal browsing w them .. I booked a ton of pre-ssn action there LY finding the best odds and RSW's and their numbers were often posted after other houses had more/less established a number for the market already and they still dropped the best number out for us .. happy to speak highly of them because they were such a great option and not just tailing and truing their numbers to everyone elses .. Caesar if your listening you can DM me about sponsorship opportunities lol ..
That said I think these P5 futures are pretty scrunched down .. certainly a risk posting first and there's no reason to be super competitive w no competition around .. but we def get a sense of the conf strength and order of finish a decent oddsmaker is projecting so w/o/f/a ..
ACC ... Note that like the PAC LY ACC is moving to no divsions so 2 best records get in .. much harder to 'luck' your way to the conf game in a weak division and the strength of the conf schedule good/bad spots become massively more important considerations as there really just aren't any 'could lose and be fine' conf games..
FSU +135 ..wondering if it was Clem or FSU at #1 .. took a small bite at 25-1 LY felt like the right idea .. 1.35 is a MASSIVE JUMP and sheesh .. COME ON .. wayyy too low CLEM +145 .. Clem behind by a nostril .. very much a 2 horse race in the books minds .. for all the antiquated things Dabo does that hurts the program by not embracing portal or NIL he finally I think did them a solid and hired an OC from outside the ranks of the program .. Garret Riley, brother of Lincoln, comes in from TCU .. I think its a great hire and could boomerang this offense back w Klubnik looking like the real deal early in his career at least against ACC caliber defenses .. Think Clem should be the odds on conf fav even if the power rankings are similar they get FSU at home and thus will likely have a huge advantage getting into the conf champ game in any kinda close race .. but at these odds were not getting a bargain for them being misplaced to 2nd .. need 3-1 at least or its just not worth the risk as we might need to hit 45% ROI just to keep up w inflation this year lol .. UNC 7.5-1 .. Wayy too low .. would need a sure thing turnaround w their D to play this .. would want closer to 15 VILLE +10-1 .. I don't think Brohm gets it clicking right away .. liked Purdue LY w the sure thing pass game and w the rush at dead last in y/carry in '21 it seemed very easy to affect a solid bump on offense if the RB's could provide literally any help .. and they did, breaking the top 100 and it was just enough to make the division .. I think we can expect the run game to be ignored again w so many other areas to address in the pass game, not to mention the D solid D getting throttled by the portal and the draft .. think this should be more like 50-1 and if books are giving them 4th odds in the conference then I'd def be hoping we get an RSW to maybe take UNDER! .. NC SATE 12-1 .. Roster had been gearing up itself for years to be good in 2022 and then the offense laid a massive egg .. regressed close to #100 in the models .. just above Northwestern and Temple .. just below UNLV and Ark State .. every loss was an offensive failure and looking back an avg ACC offense very well might have won them the division and the conference .. OC Tim Beck moves on to be HC at coastal and bring in Robert Anea from Cuse LY, UVA before that and he gets his old QB Brennan Armstrong who no doubt liked him way more than the nightmare UVA became LY .. if only they made this move LY..
ACC ... Note that like the PAC LY ACC is moving to no divsions so 2 best records get in .. much harder to 'luck' your way to the conf game in a weak division and the strength of the conf schedule good/bad spots become massively more important considerations as there really just aren't any 'could lose and be fine' conf games..
FSU +135 ..wondering if it was Clem or FSU at #1 .. took a small bite at 25-1 LY felt like the right idea .. 1.35 is a MASSIVE JUMP and sheesh .. COME ON .. wayyy too low CLEM +145 .. Clem behind by a nostril .. very much a 2 horse race in the books minds .. for all the antiquated things Dabo does that hurts the program by not embracing portal or NIL he finally I think did them a solid and hired an OC from outside the ranks of the program .. Garret Riley, brother of Lincoln, comes in from TCU .. I think its a great hire and could boomerang this offense back w Klubnik looking like the real deal early in his career at least against ACC caliber defenses .. Think Clem should be the odds on conf fav even if the power rankings are similar they get FSU at home and thus will likely have a huge advantage getting into the conf champ game in any kinda close race .. but at these odds were not getting a bargain for them being misplaced to 2nd .. need 3-1 at least or its just not worth the risk as we might need to hit 45% ROI just to keep up w inflation this year lol .. UNC 7.5-1 .. Wayy too low .. would need a sure thing turnaround w their D to play this .. would want closer to 15 VILLE +10-1 .. I don't think Brohm gets it clicking right away .. liked Purdue LY w the sure thing pass game and w the rush at dead last in y/carry in '21 it seemed very easy to affect a solid bump on offense if the RB's could provide literally any help .. and they did, breaking the top 100 and it was just enough to make the division .. I think we can expect the run game to be ignored again w so many other areas to address in the pass game, not to mention the D solid D getting throttled by the portal and the draft .. think this should be more like 50-1 and if books are giving them 4th odds in the conference then I'd def be hoping we get an RSW to maybe take UNDER! .. NC SATE 12-1 .. Roster had been gearing up itself for years to be good in 2022 and then the offense laid a massive egg .. regressed close to #100 in the models .. just above Northwestern and Temple .. just below UNLV and Ark State .. every loss was an offensive failure and looking back an avg ACC offense very well might have won them the division and the conference .. OC Tim Beck moves on to be HC at coastal and bring in Robert Anea from Cuse LY, UVA before that and he gets his old QB Brennan Armstrong who no doubt liked him way more than the nightmare UVA became LY .. if only they made this move LY..
MIA 20-1 .. there's so much to dislike about the canes LY particularly on offense .. the D had some ability and at least appears to be positioned to turn around .. I'd like the idea of a turnaround much more if we knew Cristobal was throttling the roster LY in an effort to build a real conf contender .. but there is absolutely no indication this was all part of the plan w the heavy hitters at both coordinator spots moving on this year .. Gattis moving on to MD .. Charlie Strong is out and woah Bama poaches Kevin Steele!!!! .. the new coordinators aren't in the same universe as the crew and its fair to say they tried to make a splash LY and flopped .. seems like Cristobal has cultural, talent and coaching deficiencies none of which are just simple off season fixes.. so yeah 20-1 feels alot more like bait than a deal .. maybe the best sign of life is that Van Dyke is staying and while that's not saying much he no doubt woulda had suitors if he went into the portal .. like maybe get his high NFL draft / heisman Mojo back w Lashlee at SMU who just happened to have a QB vacancy? .. If he wasn't confident in Miami then it seems very unlikely they could pay him enough to stay stuck in the nightmare they were in LY .. PITT 25-1 .. always confident in the defense but as some astute observers noted after LY the Pitt Champ team's offense really wasn't that good and seemed unlikely Narduzzi would pick a new OC that would spark the offense needed to repeat .. OC Cignetti not only had all the players needed to win the coastal division his his main competition Miami totally self immolated .. that doesn't matter when you start conf 1-3 losing to GT, Ville and UNC and totally lack consistency on offense.. and Cignetti and numerous offensive weapons portaling or going pro it doesn't bode well for a big bounce back in my view .. 25-1 is from name recognition think we'd want 40 or 50-1 to make a bet at this time and hope they get all the many lucky bounces I think they'll need to land in the champ game this year. WAKE 50-1 .. Obvi the big news is Hartman is off to ND .. I can't imagine after developing him from just nothing into such a stud that Clawson wasn't able to line up and fully train his replacement .. seems like Clawson's offense gets robbed blind in the portal every year and just guessing small private school doesn't have their NIL proclivities together the way others do .. but I don't hate the prospects of Clawson having another QB on hand and staying real strong .. if it felt like stars were aligning a little more for Lambert on D then I could start warming up to playing this number .. DUKE 50-1 .. aghhh.. epic surprise turnaround LY but think its unlikely they could ever get past Clemson's pure talent load and even if they manage to wiggle past everyone else the champ game line will be so massive we'll have no real value .. want closer to maybe 100-1 and maybe after playing Clemson week 1 we end up finding a much better in-ssn wager to make as that clem opener is very much an assumed loss in my mind .. Now if the Blue Devils are 9th in the ACC in terms of season wins then you can def sign me up for an over!!!
ACC CONT'D ..
MIA 20-1 .. there's so much to dislike about the canes LY particularly on offense .. the D had some ability and at least appears to be positioned to turn around .. I'd like the idea of a turnaround much more if we knew Cristobal was throttling the roster LY in an effort to build a real conf contender .. but there is absolutely no indication this was all part of the plan w the heavy hitters at both coordinator spots moving on this year .. Gattis moving on to MD .. Charlie Strong is out and woah Bama poaches Kevin Steele!!!! .. the new coordinators aren't in the same universe as the crew and its fair to say they tried to make a splash LY and flopped .. seems like Cristobal has cultural, talent and coaching deficiencies none of which are just simple off season fixes.. so yeah 20-1 feels alot more like bait than a deal .. maybe the best sign of life is that Van Dyke is staying and while that's not saying much he no doubt woulda had suitors if he went into the portal .. like maybe get his high NFL draft / heisman Mojo back w Lashlee at SMU who just happened to have a QB vacancy? .. If he wasn't confident in Miami then it seems very unlikely they could pay him enough to stay stuck in the nightmare they were in LY .. PITT 25-1 .. always confident in the defense but as some astute observers noted after LY the Pitt Champ team's offense really wasn't that good and seemed unlikely Narduzzi would pick a new OC that would spark the offense needed to repeat .. OC Cignetti not only had all the players needed to win the coastal division his his main competition Miami totally self immolated .. that doesn't matter when you start conf 1-3 losing to GT, Ville and UNC and totally lack consistency on offense.. and Cignetti and numerous offensive weapons portaling or going pro it doesn't bode well for a big bounce back in my view .. 25-1 is from name recognition think we'd want 40 or 50-1 to make a bet at this time and hope they get all the many lucky bounces I think they'll need to land in the champ game this year. WAKE 50-1 .. Obvi the big news is Hartman is off to ND .. I can't imagine after developing him from just nothing into such a stud that Clawson wasn't able to line up and fully train his replacement .. seems like Clawson's offense gets robbed blind in the portal every year and just guessing small private school doesn't have their NIL proclivities together the way others do .. but I don't hate the prospects of Clawson having another QB on hand and staying real strong .. if it felt like stars were aligning a little more for Lambert on D then I could start warming up to playing this number .. DUKE 50-1 .. aghhh.. epic surprise turnaround LY but think its unlikely they could ever get past Clemson's pure talent load and even if they manage to wiggle past everyone else the champ game line will be so massive we'll have no real value .. want closer to maybe 100-1 and maybe after playing Clemson week 1 we end up finding a much better in-ssn wager to make as that clem opener is very much an assumed loss in my mind .. Now if the Blue Devils are 9th in the ACC in terms of season wins then you can def sign me up for an over!!!
I understand the FSU hype, but the favorite at THAT #??? Wow. Really leaning into the darling this year. We got NC States of the world at +1200 last March. This must be the sustained fall of Clemson (champs last year lol). ..
Not much I like on the ACC odds. Touching on some other teams.. Curious to your thoughts
RSW... Again Cuse returns a lot on both sides and we could see a low #, thinking 5-5.5. Time to strike was last year but may double dip depending on market.
As you noted Duke still not respected with good offensive returning #s.
Rebuild for Wake (trust the coach), Pitt (eh), and UVA (nope).
Georgia tech might be sneaky but just an overall lack of talent
Not a very compelling conference imo, but it's great to see these numbers up!
I understand the FSU hype, but the favorite at THAT #??? Wow. Really leaning into the darling this year. We got NC States of the world at +1200 last March. This must be the sustained fall of Clemson (champs last year lol). ..
Not much I like on the ACC odds. Touching on some other teams.. Curious to your thoughts
RSW... Again Cuse returns a lot on both sides and we could see a low #, thinking 5-5.5. Time to strike was last year but may double dip depending on market.
As you noted Duke still not respected with good offensive returning #s.
Rebuild for Wake (trust the coach), Pitt (eh), and UVA (nope).
Georgia tech might be sneaky but just an overall lack of talent
Not a very compelling conference imo, but it's great to see these numbers up!
CUSE 80-1 .. The dregs of the conference seem about right, there is some order of ugly situation going on w each, even Cuse w babers losing his OC and DC along w a few guys who turned LY into a real turnaround story .. Babers did relieve Rocky Long of his suffering at New Mexico and the D could very well pick his scheme up quickly and be effective this year .. Shraeder's off surgery missing spring ball and think they'll need him back in the fall to have a chance to build on LY's success ..
UVA 125-1 .. UVA's D under Rudzingski is actually pretty awesome when I think most everyone projected their D to stink bad again.. idk if Cavs D will be better but should be stable and something they can build on in the future .. but Tony Elliot and Des Kitchens crap out a 100+ ranked offense while having proven awesome QB Armstrong and a legit nationally recognized group group of solid receiving targets .. Armstrong is off to join his old OC at NC State and had the tragedy w one of their decent WR's killed LY .. have to check but I'd doubt any others stuck around and I think the big concern for Elliot & Co is that they likely won't be attracting any solid offensive skill players until they prove themselves by doing it with less .. seat gets hot quick if they can't right the offense this year and that seems like a tall order ..
ACC CONT'D .. THE DREGS ..
CUSE 80-1 .. The dregs of the conference seem about right, there is some order of ugly situation going on w each, even Cuse w babers losing his OC and DC along w a few guys who turned LY into a real turnaround story .. Babers did relieve Rocky Long of his suffering at New Mexico and the D could very well pick his scheme up quickly and be effective this year .. Shraeder's off surgery missing spring ball and think they'll need him back in the fall to have a chance to build on LY's success ..
UVA 125-1 .. UVA's D under Rudzingski is actually pretty awesome when I think most everyone projected their D to stink bad again.. idk if Cavs D will be better but should be stable and something they can build on in the future .. but Tony Elliot and Des Kitchens crap out a 100+ ranked offense while having proven awesome QB Armstrong and a legit nationally recognized group group of solid receiving targets .. Armstrong is off to join his old OC at NC State and had the tragedy w one of their decent WR's killed LY .. have to check but I'd doubt any others stuck around and I think the big concern for Elliot & Co is that they likely won't be attracting any solid offensive skill players until they prove themselves by doing it with less .. seat gets hot quick if they can't right the offense this year and that seems like a tall order ..
BC 150-1 .. BC looks like real trouble Haftley and his DC Tem Lukabu didn't have much talent to work with didn't produce a real solid D in 3 years they did pitch some decent games especially in '21 and left the D much better than the they found it .. Lukabu is back to the NFL as an LB coach and Haftley has 2 fairly new coordinators under him to work with which is unlikely to be a better situation but still have 3 defensive minds on that side .. offense got worse each of the L3 yrs Cignetti blew up the offense and moved on to Pitt LY after a massive drop to about #100 .. John Mcnulty carried the torch LY to possibly a bottom 20 offense and maybe the worst run game in BC history .. dead last in y/carry last year and I guess we should adjust for the insane number of sack yards but don't need to, end of the day 2.1yds / carry was a full yard and a half behind Miss State and Mike Leach teams are perennially last in basic yds/carry by design, only a true horror show can a way to drop lower on a per carry basis than what they do like Akron in '19, etc .. and between Jerko and some pretty solid WR's including top draft pick Zay Flowers the pass game was about as big of a joke .. RIP Leach ... and Mcnulty's career .. BC Promoted the TE coach to OC and QB coach and obvi the playcaller .. Does have some OC experience in D2 and QB coaching asst in the NFL so something to like but its not a vast wealth of knowledge and starting where they are at #115 offense w Jerko and Zay leaving its an uphill battle coming .. the models do like a MONSTER bounce back but mostly from like turnover luck regression and historical rankings .. pretty unsteady foundation ..
GT 200-1 .. The models are split on how good the D was LY but couple have them top 40 actually SP+ was a little more skiddish .. regardless it was a total turnaround from truly horrific in '21 especially in their pass D one of the worst to maybe one of the best .. LY was the offenses turn to take a dive. Nick "The American Portal Sniper" Saban did his usual thing picking off Jahmyr Gibbs and the run game regressed .. none of their 3 QB's they used LY got anything going either .. but they got rid of collins during the year LY and moved OC Brent Key up and kept the DC and added a CO-DC likely more of a run coordinator which was the bigger struggle LY .. the new OC Buster Faulkner was at Ark State and Mid-T and S.Miss for some of their offensive glory years but this was a while back and way easier to draw up winners in G5 .. they'll really need a QB for his offenses to be successful .. Zach Pyron was promising but got injured last year... Haynes King was injured but not promising at A&M are the best shots at a winner .. not a conference contender but think they could definitely improve and maybe surprise w a new coach new QB new attitude formula ..
ACC last of the bunch ..
BC 150-1 .. BC looks like real trouble Haftley and his DC Tem Lukabu didn't have much talent to work with didn't produce a real solid D in 3 years they did pitch some decent games especially in '21 and left the D much better than the they found it .. Lukabu is back to the NFL as an LB coach and Haftley has 2 fairly new coordinators under him to work with which is unlikely to be a better situation but still have 3 defensive minds on that side .. offense got worse each of the L3 yrs Cignetti blew up the offense and moved on to Pitt LY after a massive drop to about #100 .. John Mcnulty carried the torch LY to possibly a bottom 20 offense and maybe the worst run game in BC history .. dead last in y/carry last year and I guess we should adjust for the insane number of sack yards but don't need to, end of the day 2.1yds / carry was a full yard and a half behind Miss State and Mike Leach teams are perennially last in basic yds/carry by design, only a true horror show can a way to drop lower on a per carry basis than what they do like Akron in '19, etc .. and between Jerko and some pretty solid WR's including top draft pick Zay Flowers the pass game was about as big of a joke .. RIP Leach ... and Mcnulty's career .. BC Promoted the TE coach to OC and QB coach and obvi the playcaller .. Does have some OC experience in D2 and QB coaching asst in the NFL so something to like but its not a vast wealth of knowledge and starting where they are at #115 offense w Jerko and Zay leaving its an uphill battle coming .. the models do like a MONSTER bounce back but mostly from like turnover luck regression and historical rankings .. pretty unsteady foundation ..
GT 200-1 .. The models are split on how good the D was LY but couple have them top 40 actually SP+ was a little more skiddish .. regardless it was a total turnaround from truly horrific in '21 especially in their pass D one of the worst to maybe one of the best .. LY was the offenses turn to take a dive. Nick "The American Portal Sniper" Saban did his usual thing picking off Jahmyr Gibbs and the run game regressed .. none of their 3 QB's they used LY got anything going either .. but they got rid of collins during the year LY and moved OC Brent Key up and kept the DC and added a CO-DC likely more of a run coordinator which was the bigger struggle LY .. the new OC Buster Faulkner was at Ark State and Mid-T and S.Miss for some of their offensive glory years but this was a while back and way easier to draw up winners in G5 .. they'll really need a QB for his offenses to be successful .. Zach Pyron was promising but got injured last year... Haynes King was injured but not promising at A&M are the best shots at a winner .. not a conference contender but think they could definitely improve and maybe surprise w a new coach new QB new attitude formula ..
Yeah Joz nothing super intriguing NC State might finally get the O they desperately needed either of the last 2 years but now its 49% ret pro on D .. still I wouldn't write them off and good move by Caesars for not offering up like 20x or more like they did w Miami and Pitt .. I think if there's something to like at Wake then 50-1 maybe worth a shot but Czr clearly not handing out free money w their odds offerings so have to think that when we look at them we'll prob find they have a few more fleas than expected ..
Can't imagine they put Cuse's RSW at the same number as LY when they really proved themselves as a capable bunch .. even had Clemson on the ropes for a while .. AT CLEMSON!!! .. that said start 6-0 end 1-5 .. comeback vs BC in the finale was the lone win in that stretch .. considerably harder stretch IMO but also a clear ceiling LY .. they have the two easy W's early and Clem, @FSU, @UNC are real likely losses .. and 7 others with at least a fair shot at a W and nothing I'd say 100% will be > than a TD dog at this time so unless they fall apart there should be plenty of shots on goal to at least make a bowl game .. they'll def need to win a few at the end of the season this year.. think it'll be 5.5 or 6 assuming the QB is sure thing back and healthy .. I'd def pay attn to that!!! ..
Yeah Joz nothing super intriguing NC State might finally get the O they desperately needed either of the last 2 years but now its 49% ret pro on D .. still I wouldn't write them off and good move by Caesars for not offering up like 20x or more like they did w Miami and Pitt .. I think if there's something to like at Wake then 50-1 maybe worth a shot but Czr clearly not handing out free money w their odds offerings so have to think that when we look at them we'll prob find they have a few more fleas than expected ..
Can't imagine they put Cuse's RSW at the same number as LY when they really proved themselves as a capable bunch .. even had Clemson on the ropes for a while .. AT CLEMSON!!! .. that said start 6-0 end 1-5 .. comeback vs BC in the finale was the lone win in that stretch .. considerably harder stretch IMO but also a clear ceiling LY .. they have the two easy W's early and Clem, @FSU, @UNC are real likely losses .. and 7 others with at least a fair shot at a W and nothing I'd say 100% will be > than a TD dog at this time so unless they fall apart there should be plenty of shots on goal to at least make a bowl game .. they'll def need to win a few at the end of the season this year.. think it'll be 5.5 or 6 assuming the QB is sure thing back and healthy .. I'd def pay attn to that!!! ..
won't go thru all of em now anyway .. a few do stick out ..
TEXAS +200 .. hail horns .. agree .. think its their year.. OKLA +220 .. I think its another painful year and if UT is +200 then in no way does it seem like OU is +220 but looking at the schedule they should win all the non cons and they get 3 outta the 4 new B12 teams and none of them look all that promising this year .. keep WV, Kansas, OK.State, Iowa St and TCU in the finale .. no Baylor, K-State or T-Tech .. besides UT maybe Kansas is the only other team on their schedule that is improved from LY? .. was hoping to take their RSW under and might be 8.5 or so but idk they should be favs in at least 10 so .. T-TECH 20-1 .. wouldn't play at that number hoping we get better odds at other books .. Kitley's offense is pure top gun maverick and its way too many crash n burns LY .. they ever find some consistency then they'll be legit B12 dangerous.. KANSAS 40-1 .. want bigger but would consider it .. one of the few teams with a legitimate likelihood of improving this year .. schedule is not that daunting other than likely loss @Texas that game is right before the red river shootout .. always an interesting spot for UT .. also get Kansas State at home and boy are they wanting a win .. that creates a horrible spot @Cincy in the finale but think they'll overcome that if its literally a win and their in the champ game .. again need bigger odds as they're already laying 3 TD's in GOY vs UT and will be at least 14 in the champ game .. need UT outta the way if we're gunna hedge a big payday outta these guys .. 80-1 would be much better .. HOUSTON 200-1 .. Welcome to the BIG 12 Y'all!!!! .. schedule is VERY TOUGH and I'm not expecting a massive bump in power ratings this year .. may be time to change out Holgersen if things go as expected ..
BIG 12 ..
won't go thru all of em now anyway .. a few do stick out ..
TEXAS +200 .. hail horns .. agree .. think its their year.. OKLA +220 .. I think its another painful year and if UT is +200 then in no way does it seem like OU is +220 but looking at the schedule they should win all the non cons and they get 3 outta the 4 new B12 teams and none of them look all that promising this year .. keep WV, Kansas, OK.State, Iowa St and TCU in the finale .. no Baylor, K-State or T-Tech .. besides UT maybe Kansas is the only other team on their schedule that is improved from LY? .. was hoping to take their RSW under and might be 8.5 or so but idk they should be favs in at least 10 so .. T-TECH 20-1 .. wouldn't play at that number hoping we get better odds at other books .. Kitley's offense is pure top gun maverick and its way too many crash n burns LY .. they ever find some consistency then they'll be legit B12 dangerous.. KANSAS 40-1 .. want bigger but would consider it .. one of the few teams with a legitimate likelihood of improving this year .. schedule is not that daunting other than likely loss @Texas that game is right before the red river shootout .. always an interesting spot for UT .. also get Kansas State at home and boy are they wanting a win .. that creates a horrible spot @Cincy in the finale but think they'll overcome that if its literally a win and their in the champ game .. again need bigger odds as they're already laying 3 TD's in GOY vs UT and will be at least 14 in the champ game .. need UT outta the way if we're gunna hedge a big payday outta these guys .. 80-1 would be much better .. HOUSTON 200-1 .. Welcome to the BIG 12 Y'all!!!! .. schedule is VERY TOUGH and I'm not expecting a massive bump in power ratings this year .. may be time to change out Holgersen if things go as expected ..
OSU +180 .. was -220 last year or something just totally ridiculous .. 400% better this year!!! MICH +200 .. Saw the spring game and gotta say this needs to be more like maybe 10-1... .. Lol .. jk guys!!! WISCO +500 . read my mind I think easily the odds on favs from the B-West was hoping for a dumb number like 10 or so .. at 5 there's just not much of a payoff even if we're right about them making it they'll have their work cut out for them .. PENN ST 6-1 .. yeah totally not worth it .. even if they made it past OSU and Mich I kinda think theyll be nearly even vs Wisco .. slay the 2 dragons to be ~50/50 shot, no thanks .. IOWA 8-1 .. totally insane .. maybe 800-1 I'd take a small stab at it lol .. ILL 20-1 .. I'd want like 50-1 after losing walters and chase brown and the QB and the guys going pro .. I dont hate the idea of them surprising again but 20-1 for the conference prob hedges down to 2-1 if they end up making it and are 3 TD dogs .. next .. NEBRASKA 50-1 .. obvi not B10 champ grade yet but I like the coaching change to Rhule and if its not Wisco then there might be a pretty awesome hedge to be had w these guys if they can get themselves squared away and show up beating Minny in week 1 .. Got Mich at home looks like an L (maybe .. lol) but the rest of the schedule is not all that daunting until the very end @Wisco then Iowa at home .. brutal B2B series but if they show up solid this year they could get even more improved over the course of the year and make it interesting and maybe won't be mortgaging the wager on a champ game hedge if they can pull off such a huge feat .. they could also be a year away from making a bowl too though lol .. PURDUE 125-1 .. think its a tall order for Walters in his first year personnel wise .. OC graham harrell and Hudson Card could make things interesting but I suspect Harrell is a bit out of his element in the B10 .. best offense was w USC in '19 were #14 and barely scraping top 40 ever since .. and likely need a decently effective run game which he doesn't often produce and neither did Brohm.. so the foundation and personnel for that is not likely there nor will it be attracted to play there .. idk if Walters can effect a massive D change right away if he landed a bunch of guys from the portal wanting to play then maybe there's a reason to take a stab at these monster odds and just plan on hedging 15-1 out of it if they can go B2B in the West again....
BIG 10
OSU +180 .. was -220 last year or something just totally ridiculous .. 400% better this year!!! MICH +200 .. Saw the spring game and gotta say this needs to be more like maybe 10-1... .. Lol .. jk guys!!! WISCO +500 . read my mind I think easily the odds on favs from the B-West was hoping for a dumb number like 10 or so .. at 5 there's just not much of a payoff even if we're right about them making it they'll have their work cut out for them .. PENN ST 6-1 .. yeah totally not worth it .. even if they made it past OSU and Mich I kinda think theyll be nearly even vs Wisco .. slay the 2 dragons to be ~50/50 shot, no thanks .. IOWA 8-1 .. totally insane .. maybe 800-1 I'd take a small stab at it lol .. ILL 20-1 .. I'd want like 50-1 after losing walters and chase brown and the QB and the guys going pro .. I dont hate the idea of them surprising again but 20-1 for the conference prob hedges down to 2-1 if they end up making it and are 3 TD dogs .. next .. NEBRASKA 50-1 .. obvi not B10 champ grade yet but I like the coaching change to Rhule and if its not Wisco then there might be a pretty awesome hedge to be had w these guys if they can get themselves squared away and show up beating Minny in week 1 .. Got Mich at home looks like an L (maybe .. lol) but the rest of the schedule is not all that daunting until the very end @Wisco then Iowa at home .. brutal B2B series but if they show up solid this year they could get even more improved over the course of the year and make it interesting and maybe won't be mortgaging the wager on a champ game hedge if they can pull off such a huge feat .. they could also be a year away from making a bowl too though lol .. PURDUE 125-1 .. think its a tall order for Walters in his first year personnel wise .. OC graham harrell and Hudson Card could make things interesting but I suspect Harrell is a bit out of his element in the B10 .. best offense was w USC in '19 were #14 and barely scraping top 40 ever since .. and likely need a decently effective run game which he doesn't often produce and neither did Brohm.. so the foundation and personnel for that is not likely there nor will it be attracted to play there .. idk if Walters can effect a massive D change right away if he landed a bunch of guys from the portal wanting to play then maybe there's a reason to take a stab at these monster odds and just plan on hedging 15-1 out of it if they can go B2B in the West again....
I'm with you, was hoping for higher on the Red Raiders and will keep an eye out. Lots of momentum for that staff and they had a better year than i anticipated, capped off with a big bowl win. Year 2 of Kit...
Also with you on it'll need to go through Austin this year, like for real for once.
You intrigue me with the Kansas thought
@Bridge1
I'm with you, was hoping for higher on the Red Raiders and will keep an eye out. Lots of momentum for that staff and they had a better year than i anticipated, capped off with a big bowl win. Year 2 of Kit...
Also with you on it'll need to go through Austin this year, like for real for once.
Yuck the big ten provides no discernible value. Was thinking Wiscy or PSU but need another digit on that x-to-1. Not locking up my money on the favorites in the East.
The West is worse as there is no path to victory so as you're indicating it needs to be a worthwhile hedge. Minnesota is DOA with that crossover schedule and Morgan moving on (I hope the Greek kid is not their plan). Nebraska is a dumpster fire every year and I think it'll take rhule some time to reverse course, but talent is there.
Those odds are not generous enough for Iowa or Illinois to be +16.5 in the title game.
That leaves Purdue, where I think you're spot on, you had a coach trying to instill a different dynamic but going halfway there, this could be a bad first year.. and NW who I was able to summarily dismiss as a relic but at this point, with this West, is +50000 worth a donation?
@Bridge1
Yuck the big ten provides no discernible value. Was thinking Wiscy or PSU but need another digit on that x-to-1. Not locking up my money on the favorites in the East.
The West is worse as there is no path to victory so as you're indicating it needs to be a worthwhile hedge. Minnesota is DOA with that crossover schedule and Morgan moving on (I hope the Greek kid is not their plan). Nebraska is a dumpster fire every year and I think it'll take rhule some time to reverse course, but talent is there.
Those odds are not generous enough for Iowa or Illinois to be +16.5 in the title game.
That leaves Purdue, where I think you're spot on, you had a coach trying to instill a different dynamic but going halfway there, this could be a bad first year.. and NW who I was able to summarily dismiss as a relic but at this point, with this West, is +50000 worth a donation?
Best team Harbaugh has had in AA this year. Experienced and fill some holes via transfer. Depth along both lines is insane. Will Johnson was out for the spring game, can be a top 10 NFL pick in 2 years, best DB to come through here since another guy who wore #2 years ago.
The spot of concern for me is the 2nd CB spot. Amorion Walker getting lots of hype but was getting picked on by nearly everyone in the spring game. I thought freshman Jyaire Hill looked solid, think he will be a factor early and force his way into the mix (that 2024 secondary will be nasty!) The safeties and LBs are fantastic.
Offensively the WRs are solid but like you said who’s going to the the go to, true #1? I do think Darrius Clemons has a chance to be that guy. They’re littered with experience all over the offense though.
Weirdly enough my biggest thing is who’s the kicker?! Money moody gone, that guy was the nuts, auto 3 every time. Quite a weapon at the college level imo
I kinda like Penn St for that #2 spot in the East… think they could be really good but still have a wild card as a head coach.
Best team Harbaugh has had in AA this year. Experienced and fill some holes via transfer. Depth along both lines is insane. Will Johnson was out for the spring game, can be a top 10 NFL pick in 2 years, best DB to come through here since another guy who wore #2 years ago.
The spot of concern for me is the 2nd CB spot. Amorion Walker getting lots of hype but was getting picked on by nearly everyone in the spring game. I thought freshman Jyaire Hill looked solid, think he will be a factor early and force his way into the mix (that 2024 secondary will be nasty!) The safeties and LBs are fantastic.
Offensively the WRs are solid but like you said who’s going to the the go to, true #1? I do think Darrius Clemons has a chance to be that guy. They’re littered with experience all over the offense though.
Weirdly enough my biggest thing is who’s the kicker?! Money moody gone, that guy was the nuts, auto 3 every time. Quite a weapon at the college level imo
I kinda like Penn St for that #2 spot in the East… think they could be really good but still have a wild card as a head coach.
I called it bait when I first looked at it and will def try to find 25-1 or better when more books offer .. The talent load on the team is immense and there's enough to like at each position to I think to justify a 20-1 bomb .. the biggest thing in my view is whether Cristobal can change the culture from instant gratification turnover chain to a buy in culture willing to make the sacrifice for a big year .. clearly when the chips were down last year we found out they were the same old canes .. Cristobal is def the kinda coach to lead the change and he does have some pretty ugly receipts to shove in their faces proving what happens if they don't get on board..
Need a big turnaround on O and Van Dyke has to bounce back to what we know he can be .. even injured LY he didn't perform well in Gattis' offense .. not many QB's have .. New OC Shannon Dawson did well w Nick Mullens, Clint Trickett and Clayton Tune and this is the most talent he's had to work with by far .. The O had problems everywhere LY esp w injuries besides the QB's, 2 RB's injured pre-ssn Citizen and Cheney killed the unit but still found a solid in Henry Parrish and all are back .. WR group lost their best guy in Restrepo LY he's back .. tough to judge the rest of the WR / TE's, they lose a good one in Will Mallory but a lotta talent returns and a great FR class might have a surprise in it too .. The OL really doomed the team, ton of young guys ended up starting, top 4 gone this year .. sounds bad at first but they have 2 great grabs from the portal Matt Lee from UCF is a sure thing at C and Javion Cohen was starting guard at Bama .. both are doing great in the spring and have one more ret starter from last year plus 4 FR Ly got significant bup or starting reps .. I don't count on the true FR OL's but they bagged 2 5-stars this cycle and both are in for spring so I do expect Cristobal's OL to have a massive turnaround .. Bill C had em - 29 points in terms of his bad fumble luck 2nd worst in cfb .. much of was from all the inexperienced starters running into each other and it stands to reason UM might really boomerang if they can go from bad to good in the luck department ..
FUTURES
MIAMI 20-1 (CZR)
I called it bait when I first looked at it and will def try to find 25-1 or better when more books offer .. The talent load on the team is immense and there's enough to like at each position to I think to justify a 20-1 bomb .. the biggest thing in my view is whether Cristobal can change the culture from instant gratification turnover chain to a buy in culture willing to make the sacrifice for a big year .. clearly when the chips were down last year we found out they were the same old canes .. Cristobal is def the kinda coach to lead the change and he does have some pretty ugly receipts to shove in their faces proving what happens if they don't get on board..
Need a big turnaround on O and Van Dyke has to bounce back to what we know he can be .. even injured LY he didn't perform well in Gattis' offense .. not many QB's have .. New OC Shannon Dawson did well w Nick Mullens, Clint Trickett and Clayton Tune and this is the most talent he's had to work with by far .. The O had problems everywhere LY esp w injuries besides the QB's, 2 RB's injured pre-ssn Citizen and Cheney killed the unit but still found a solid in Henry Parrish and all are back .. WR group lost their best guy in Restrepo LY he's back .. tough to judge the rest of the WR / TE's, they lose a good one in Will Mallory but a lotta talent returns and a great FR class might have a surprise in it too .. The OL really doomed the team, ton of young guys ended up starting, top 4 gone this year .. sounds bad at first but they have 2 great grabs from the portal Matt Lee from UCF is a sure thing at C and Javion Cohen was starting guard at Bama .. both are doing great in the spring and have one more ret starter from last year plus 4 FR Ly got significant bup or starting reps .. I don't count on the true FR OL's but they bagged 2 5-stars this cycle and both are in for spring so I do expect Cristobal's OL to have a massive turnaround .. Bill C had em - 29 points in terms of his bad fumble luck 2nd worst in cfb .. much of was from all the inexperienced starters running into each other and it stands to reason UM might really boomerang if they can go from bad to good in the luck department ..
The D actually has a few really good playmakers and again it seems when the going got tough the team just checked out models had em finish around #70. would have expected most of their best players to jet out when Bama swiped their DC but they retain a solid core of likely next level players incl 2 safeties 2 DE's and a DT and pulled in one of the more proven hauls from the portal w 2 more DT's 1 LB and 2 corners we can count on.. Its a great starting spot for new DC lance guidry's first big job and he's done alot more w alot less at every stop for decades from Mcnees, to W.KY, Marshall the last 2 years.. think its just a culture shift away from turning talented individuals into a successful unit .. the concerns are there's no real proven star at LB the one xfer was solid and there's 3 others experienced and decent talent ratings and sounds like they have 1 stud recruit in for spring who they really like but all told maybe 5 or 6 total LB's right now .. same w the secondary even w 2 sure thing safeties and 2 CB's that I'd expect to start the numbers beyond are shallow and the talent unproven .. there are 3 highly rated FR DB's but none are in for spring.. the one comfort is this is Guidry's area of specialty so im not just saying a prayer that a few guys stay healthy all year they should find the depth .. but yeah the back end of the D is a concern ..
Nothing extra great about the schedule its decently tough IMO .. they get 5 games plus a bye week to mesh before the tough stretch w some must win games .. @UNC and then Clem at home .. get a break w UVA at home and then its B2B roadies NC State and FSU.. .. Getting Clem at home so maybe just 10 pt dogs if lucky .. FSU rivalry is tough on the road but I'm not convinced they are really the lock their odds suggest .. The tough stuff is clustered together but they do avoid anything from the middle of the conference .. no duke, wake or pitt .. much better to have GT, UVA, Ville, BC occupying lower intensity weeks ..
Pick could fail miserably for obvi reasons, I never usually bet Miami to do anything futures-wise for the same reason I don't bet FSU or Florida and some others, they are so often over hyped over valued and have alot more total meltdown seasons than surprise awesome ones .. but again 20-1 for one of the most talented teams in the conference the potential is there for a big turnaround.. won't be kicking myself if they tank fizzle out think its worth a shot ..
MIAMI CONT'd ..
The D actually has a few really good playmakers and again it seems when the going got tough the team just checked out models had em finish around #70. would have expected most of their best players to jet out when Bama swiped their DC but they retain a solid core of likely next level players incl 2 safeties 2 DE's and a DT and pulled in one of the more proven hauls from the portal w 2 more DT's 1 LB and 2 corners we can count on.. Its a great starting spot for new DC lance guidry's first big job and he's done alot more w alot less at every stop for decades from Mcnees, to W.KY, Marshall the last 2 years.. think its just a culture shift away from turning talented individuals into a successful unit .. the concerns are there's no real proven star at LB the one xfer was solid and there's 3 others experienced and decent talent ratings and sounds like they have 1 stud recruit in for spring who they really like but all told maybe 5 or 6 total LB's right now .. same w the secondary even w 2 sure thing safeties and 2 CB's that I'd expect to start the numbers beyond are shallow and the talent unproven .. there are 3 highly rated FR DB's but none are in for spring.. the one comfort is this is Guidry's area of specialty so im not just saying a prayer that a few guys stay healthy all year they should find the depth .. but yeah the back end of the D is a concern ..
Nothing extra great about the schedule its decently tough IMO .. they get 5 games plus a bye week to mesh before the tough stretch w some must win games .. @UNC and then Clem at home .. get a break w UVA at home and then its B2B roadies NC State and FSU.. .. Getting Clem at home so maybe just 10 pt dogs if lucky .. FSU rivalry is tough on the road but I'm not convinced they are really the lock their odds suggest .. The tough stuff is clustered together but they do avoid anything from the middle of the conference .. no duke, wake or pitt .. much better to have GT, UVA, Ville, BC occupying lower intensity weeks ..
Pick could fail miserably for obvi reasons, I never usually bet Miami to do anything futures-wise for the same reason I don't bet FSU or Florida and some others, they are so often over hyped over valued and have alot more total meltdown seasons than surprise awesome ones .. but again 20-1 for one of the most talented teams in the conference the potential is there for a big turnaround.. won't be kicking myself if they tank fizzle out think its worth a shot ..
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