BRIDGE PLAYS WEEK 5

WK4 RECAP
BP 1-1, YTD 2-5
SM 2-1, YTD 8-10

BRIDGE PLAY
BC/VT UNDER 46.5  
ARMY/TEMPLE OVER 45.5 

SMALLER
IOWA +5 
TOLEDO -2.5 
TULSA +7 

BC/VT .. H1 3-ZIP .. Game 21-14 .. coulda conceivably gone over in OT .. even in a nor'easter no total is safe .. We had some fun bets going like first play safety for 50-1 and had basically the entire first half at 0-0 with numerous opportunities for a safety to occur .. teams inside their 5 yd line .. punts close to endzone, etc .. alas didn't get there .. we had some mammoth fun bets the books trying to buy us out of .. BC win or keep close along with ultra low totals .. cashed out on a couple for a nice hit but the BIG ENCHELADA was BC+3.5 / U22.5 with a 100% odds boost .. $50 woulda been 6+k .. we got books offering 1100 or 22x at at one point but wanted to let it ride .. woulda cashed out if it went on a little longer ,.. very tough to hedge out of those very distorted SGP plays unless one side is looking like a sure thing .. alas neither side was a sure thing .. but anyone tailing hope you cut out at some point for a fun little hit .. 

ARMY / TEMP .. Made this play because of the BIG PLAY POTENTIAL both teams had .. both defenses were terrible .. I underestimated the weather impacts I think it stalled a few drives for both, wind was wippin a bit .. Army fumble might have but just their overall offense was dialed way down to the basic up the gut plays when they were ripping these guys off the edge and coulda found downfield passing pretty easy .. Army's D is abysmal and but for lotta WR drops and temple basically just not able to run a clean offense is what kept this a dud..  Temple ripped multiple big TD's and felt like this coulda been much more tit for tat scoring not 7-7 at halftime ..

IOWA .. MAAAAAN .. poetic ending huh??!! .. you look at a line like +5 for Iowa along with Michigan with their offensive woes and you sorta just wonder why the books would give us that many .. alas sharp books knew the score here .. Mich's offense had little trouble .. .. Iowa's offense struggled the whole way .. needed a kick ret TD and some real magic on their final drive ..  Michigan was up 5 late in this one after failed 2xp so was gunna at least tie and Iowa missed FG coulda more ensured an ATS win but I don't have much confidence in this Iowa team to be competitive if Mich can put up 425 yds +100 on Iowa and look very efficient .. Iowa D 1 sack no other TFL's .. N.. felt like this shoulda been an easier Mich win and cover .. it was all theirs to lose .. Mich throws a pick and has a TO on downs both in the red zone and gives up a KR TD .. Needed this Triple drive homicide for the loss .. 

TOLEDO.. love spots and this was a good one .. I would not impute these results in your projection model AI Brain 10000 models .. feels like SDSU might in-deed be a bit overrated in the first place but maybe not even show up in this spot .. and they didn't .. 

TULSA .. New Tulsa QB .. Dexter can play in CUSA as a backup but he's sorely lacking the ability to literally do anything a couple levels up for this game .. Surprised that tulsa's D which was NASTAAAY vs a pretty clear sure thing capable offense like OK.State couldn't put the brakes on Arkansas early on and looked dead both sides of the ball .. really surprised because tulsa wins this game they would have a shot at a very high quality playoff resume .. need QB Baylor back soon .. he realllly makes this offense tick .. 

SMALLER

MISS STATE +4.5

Little scary but again love the spot plays .. you got Bama off a little string of games here and UGA on deck!!! .. S.CAR felt like a bit of a payback spot for lackluster results against FSU .. man you can imagine the fanbase that's ready to burn Deboer to the ground at halftime of that FSU game lol .. truth is he'll be on the hot seat until they're up 3 TD's in the national championship .. a flub here would be a bad look but this is a really tricky spot for them going to STARKVEGAS at 11AM in a nasty trap sandwich spot .. Kamario from the Bario has been a major surprise dude this year with major a major heisman campaign rallying around him .. shoulda grabbed him 80-1 for most passing yds in the conf, eh? he's neck and neck with Trinny and Keelon .. I did mention him to you as a long shot pass leader but I went for Kenny Minchey instead .. WOMP .. anywya the tests only get stronger from here but terrible spot for bama here and we generally don't like Deboer as a fav anyway .. Bama's offensive prowess is pretty big this year .. they also have a nasty secondary ... Not sure Kamario will keep pace if he has to do it alone but backdoor cover / ability to take over and comeback this guy has it .. 4.5 is the target I'd be hestiant to play for much less .. 

SMALLER

ARIZONA STATE -4.5

Like this team a little bit so far and off a bye after nice win across the pond .. catching baylor in a late late spot at home feels pretty good .. I'd look at this again later in the week make sure the rosters are buttoned up but Baylor is off a big game .. offense is not all that sure of itself with lagway being hit and miss .. they didn't roll CU up like NU did at all .. Auburn is a real iffy bunch .. Baylor better than pre-ssn I suppose but let's see them perform in a tricky spot .. I have liked ASU cutter boley is a bit of a playmaker and decent RB group .. the D can make things tricky and tricky is not good for Lagway .. I'd have liked this -3 and might have BP'd it if I had a beat on injuries and other stuff .. might come back to this one for more .. 

So brutal for my wolves lol. I kind of feel really good about my squad now interestingly enough. Stop taking dumb a** penalties and the sky is the limit with this group. Really impressed with Bryce yesterday. Have to be better in the RZ, especially against teams like Iowa but there’s been really steady improvement under the new staff. 

BRIDGE PLAY

UNLV +1.5

Been a bit of a rough run on the road for UNLV .. this is a massive home game and we finally get to see them in their natural habitat once again after 3 straight roadies with mixed results .. They did go toe to toe with Memphis .. we gotta check injuries and other stuff .. gotta see what Cal's problem is .. this doesn't seem like a nice spot for them after squandering away chances vs Clemson and BIG game vs VT on deck .. this non con roadie lines up like a real dud spot... SP+ last week had CAL a 4 pt fav neutral .. I don't think CAL will be any higher this week .. considering the upside for UNLV, the big home spot vs pretty clear downer spot for Cal I'm thinking lock n load this one .. 

UNLV's big weakness is Jackson Arnold under pressure .. we're not seeing CAL get big pressure on UCLA or Clemson .. they did get home much better vs Cuse but the pass D is holding QB's to a fairly low comp % maybe that's just putting folks in coverage .. CAL's HC was Oregon's DC last year and would have a plan of attack here .. the pressure gets relieved if UNLV can run the ball with Arnold and trad RB group .. and think there's an advantage there given Cal's run D and UNLV's rushing ability .. also like UNLV holding QB's to a VERY low comp % also including vs UNT .. Cal's run game has stunk every week and one of the reasons they're so hit and miss .. couldn't capitalize on the GREAT spot vs Clemson .. felt like luck was on their side on the road vs Cuse .. really not sure about this bunch .. I can give UNLV some credit for pulling a big dud vs UNT also, they're off a good game vs Memp at home then go conf @Hawaii then noncon @UNT .. very tough spot .. great spot here off a bye and @akron .. could be a surprise solid game for them and hope we see Arnold get it done here .. 

BRIDGE PLAY

VIRGINIA -2.5

Like this team and think Pribula has a much better chance for success vs FSU's D than FSU might .. also really like the D for UVA .. the downside is this is a big payback spot for FSU and expect their best game here .. that said it was a big payback spot vs SMU and even w +4 turnovers they couldn't figure it out .. WV is a much more accomplished capable offense and wasn't a surprise they were a tough out for this group .. I just like this team's abilities top to bottom better than FSU .. FSU does have some things to like in WR Duce Robinson and RB Kommah .. also the punter is a total dude haha... but I think UVA gathered themselves after a big loss and handled a fairly scrappy deleware team no muss no fuss .. I think the D will make things real tricky for FSU's pass game with pressure .. also like UVA's chances to effect consistency running the ball and big pass play potential .. FSU's coverage group has stunk vs every FBS team including NMSU .. gotta think UVA can figure this one out with a stout group and real identity on O and D.. GOOD LUCK!

@HockeyNight11

 Oh dude nothing more brutal than that .. Mich had that the whole way .. I even thought the line was toast pretty early on .. classic Iowa win .. 

SMALLER

NEW MEXICO ST -1.5

Horrific spot for WKY .. 4th road gm in the first 5 weeks going @Nevada, @UGA, @INDY and got some Mercy from (Lord Have) Mercyhurst at home last week for their first chance at sniffing a win .. New Mexico has been in more balanced battles to this point but come off a massive drubbing vs their big rival at home .. its gunna leave a really awful taste in their mouths and I expect this team to regroup and want to knock someone out this week .. great spot to do it at home again and you got a very very beatable WKY defense .. I'm not fond of NMSU's defense either and we could see tit for tat scoring .. what I do like though is the prospect of NMSU's offense completing passes and finishing off drives with points in this one .. WKY's rating has taken a massive hit so we might be playing them undervalued but were def not playing NMSU overvalued I don't believe.. regardless the spot is terrible w WKY back out on the road combined with NMSU wanting to bounce back here with a big spotlight on thursday night .. doubt I'll say this the rest of the year but .. GO AGGS!!!

BRIDGE PLAY

NORTHWESTERN +3

Big massive (BRAND NEW) home game for NU after going toe to toe with Indy last week .. well .. not toe to toe but they had their chances late in this game to pull off something closer to a surprise than what we ended up with .. NU effectively got Indy off the field but for a facemask deep in hoosier territory and woulda had a shot to make it interesting down 2 points .. instead facemask freebie 1st down and indy long drive TD .. credit to indy for not falling apart .. those are the games you find out what yer made of ..

PSU had every advantage last week with colton joseph throwing 3 picks including a pick 6 .. and it was pedestiran numbers beyond that for PSU in their first real test this year coming at home .. wisco doesn't need many heroics without all the turnovers PSU in H2 went INT, FG and 4 straight 3 n outs before running out of time on their last drive .. Everything PSU did before wisco can be ignored as Buffalo, Marshall and Temple have proven to be worse or much worse or horribly much worse than expected .. it is noteworthy that temple was able to run the ball on them and the big key for NU's offense is run yards .. we saw their run game totally shut down by indy and they were very SEAT OF YOUR PANTS with Chiles making plays .. another key is pass rush seems lacking even in their crappy non-con schedule .. I think Chip Kelly and NU can move the ball here and the D brings their own energy too .. My hope is the stadium is not filled with old alumni and has some big energy .. hope for 800mill they got a good sound system and DJ to get the crowd fired up .. we'll see .. but I will say this is about as big of a home game as I can remember and cats have a team to be excited about in the early season .. much diff feel from about 95 out of the last 100 years lol .. - GO CATS!!

BRIDGE PLAY

HOUSTON -9.5

Picked up at BOL, lot of 10.5's out there maybe the move is to see what caesars or circa comes out with .. the full point seems worth waiting for if it shows up ..

Feel like UCF has pulled the wool over the eyes just a bit with a close game in bit of a mucked up rainy game vs Pitt .. Pitt controled this the whole way UCF's coulda easily been blanked in this one .. they had no real run game vs TCU and Keonte Jenkens (of FIU fame) went 19/20 passing .. for 160 yds .. TCU's Jaden Craig with a nice day till throwing 2 picks and lost 2 more fumbles lost .. +2 turnovers .. the saving grace for UCF is their run D has been fairly stout and can get after the QB .. but really seem to luck their way into not potentially being throttled by someone to this point .. GA-State seemed to grasp how to play vs this defense with 482 yards .. UCF's QB is also a turnover prone machine throwing picks and fumbling but as we saw can get hot and put longer drives together .. Really like houston as a team top to bottom and there's a reason they nearly beat TTECH in Lubbock .. the offense is very good and think they'll crack the code here and the D is also really stout .. Also think UCF will just be a better team this year at home and not suprised they eek'd out a win vs TCU with the frogs lost on penalties, turnovers and stinky run production .. think UCF gets throttled on the road here .. good luck!

@Bridge1

 Classic Iowa is right. Have to respect it they play a sound game and take advantage of their chances.

@HockeyNight11

 Yeah lot of 4th n shorts stuffed this year and here they are 4th n short punting from mid field a few times i think .. 

SMALLER

SYRACUSE -6.5

Thinking to hit this one -5.5 and it moves to 6.5 today .. shux .. well its a little rushed to bet still but I do think cuse is better than we've seen and has a chance to get more of their run game going in this one .. hopefully vs this opponent we avoid the Angelli interceptions which have been a big thing for him this year .. Cuse has a good game to play within them and they're in a spot they NEED this win so we're hoping a trip to Uconn isin't sneaking up on them .. We also have seen Cuse tend to show up vs the lower competition .. we've seen their coach become IRATE with the team giving up a couple TD's to their FCS competiton last year, had them running gassers after the game .. Coaches do that they don't overlook these little teams and yeah Cuse really needs to get going and have the ability to house this team dominating on both sides of the ball .. we'll see .. 

SMALLER

SYRACUSE -6.5

BRIDGE PLAY

SYRACUSE -6.5

I bagged -6 at BOL but that's the only one .. The look has been not terrific for Cuse but they're off a couple tough games w Cal and @Pitt was out of their league .. they'll have 16 days off and this feels like gut check time vs big east BBALL opponent and we know Cuse goes after their bball rivals when they play football .. we also remember when they let UCONN back in the game last year up a few touchdowns .. Cuse won in OT but coach had em running GASSERS after the game in front of everyone .. hard to imagine they aren't thinking of THAT as they practice .. its just such a gut check spot and Cuse's best games I think are ahead of them .. UCONN gets pretty decent QB play form their guy but we've seen them be outclassed by a better (but not great by any means) Maryland squad .. I'd imagine MD's line vs UCONN is in this range if they were playing after last week's 50 point drubbing .. and Miami Oh spotted Uconn some points but good QB play had them come back for a win .. I'd expect Cuse gears up for a big punch here, set the tone for what's to come they have UVA on deck and other conf foes .. if they struggle in this one then coach will be squarely on the hot seat and I think good chance he's gone end of the year if they only bag a couple wins .. 

Other good news, Cuse has a major dude recruit off the injury report big time 5 star player .. Calvin Russell III is ready to go and they say they're gunna draw up some plays for him in this one .. and good timing with the long break to get a new stud worked in.. seems like Angelli could use more help at the WR spots ..