Posted:
#26
Thanks for the 4 unt play!! 
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Bowl Thread 2010 (continued)
Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Honestly, it is mostly a numbers play.
WVU defensive stats are off the charts. Even adjusted for strength of opponent they are off the charts. The only way I see NCS covering this one is to score 20+, and I just cant make a case for that - and my stats model supports it. I have NCS at a 82% probability to score 18 or less.
Almost every stat favors WVU - and that is adjusted stats for strength of opponent.
Most of this does not take in to the coaching issues you are talking about - and to be fair - they can be significant or immaterial. The thing is, I cant put a value on it. Year after year we have these, and to my knowledge overall they even out - teams with assistants coaching and teams with lame duck coaches do not do any better or worse than expected (to my recollection, maybe someone could provide some solid stats). I just dont know how to value it, so personally I ignore it as noise.
WVU 31 NCS 14
Numbers, Numbers, Numbers
just pass up the totally lopsided coaching mismatch, motivation, etc
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Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Honestly, it is mostly a numbers play.
WVU defensive stats are off the charts. Even adjusted for strength of opponent they are off the charts. The only way I see NCS covering this one is to score 20+, and I just cant make a case for that - and my stats model supports it. I have NCS at a 82% probability to score 18 or less.
Almost every stat favors WVU - and that is adjusted stats for strength of opponent.
Most of this does not take in to the coaching issues you are talking about - and to be fair - they can be significant or immaterial. The thing is, I cant put a value on it. Year after year we have these, and to my knowledge overall they even out - teams with assistants coaching and teams with lame duck coaches do not do any better or worse than expected (to my recollection, maybe someone could provide some solid stats). I just dont know how to value it, so personally I ignore it as noise.
WVU 31 NCS 14
Stats model? Get fucking real
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Posted:
#42
Quote Originally Posted by brewha42:
You guys crack me up... Vanzack is one of the more skilled cappers on here.. He didn't have a gun to your head making u play WVU..... not his fault u followed his play and unloaded ur account....
Skilled? The guy is 3-3 in bowls and down 4 units and is asking other people where they got lines like he is god. He can go fuck himself and his .500 (and losing units) record
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Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Skilled? The guy is 3-3 in bowls and down 4 units and is asking other people where they got lines like he is god. He can go fuck himself and his .500 (and losing units) record
Skilled? The guy is 3-3 in bowls and down 4 units and is asking other people where they got lines like he is god. He can go fuck himself and his .500 (and losing units) record
I agree, he always acts high & mighty, every time I see him post he gets crushed, he got buried last bowl season
WVU was an awful play, i was on NC ST LARGE,
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Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Stats model? Get fucking real
Stats model? Get fucking real
Newsflash for you Coach Zack. The game is played on the field and not on paper.
Too bad Zack isn't coaching for WVU, he would have guided them to a flawless victory with his superb knowledge of clock management and probability.
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