Bowl Thread....

Memphis / Auburn - Everything I have points to a Memphis straight up win here.  My numbers have Memphis favored in the 5-7 range, and I can make a case that all of the intangibles line up for Memphis too.  Two different styles here - with Auburn most likely taking to the ground game and Memphis riding their stud QB through the air.  Most of all - I love that Memphis is playing an SEC team - and they are hyped up to do it.  All of the local reports lead me to believe this is a big game for them - and I cant imagine the same for Auburn.  Memphis should put up a big number - and Auburn will put up points too - just not enough.  Biggest game so far for me - Memphis +3 for 4 units (Memphis 41 Auburn 24)

Miss St / NCST - this line is just a few points too high.  Not buying that NCST wont be able to keep this closer than the number.  Miss ST defense is vulnerable.  NCST +6.5 for 1.5 units.

USC / Wisky - I expect lots and lots of running in this one.  We know Wisky runs and plays D - but since Clay Helton has taken over USC there is also a commitment to ground and pound offense in the second half of the season.  Both teams are in the lower quarter (USC only under Helton) in plays per game. I hate going under in bowl games - but this one has under written all over it.  Under 50.5 for 2 units.

GL all

I am already in with AF at +7 and ML at +250.

UNC line movement has me baffled.  Not sure if this is just regular buyback of a big line move - but to go from Baylor -3, to UNC -4, then in about an hour down to UNC -2 - is unusual.  The first move was because of Baylor injuries - but those have been stable and known for a while now.

CSU / Nevada is just another MWC game for me that I would pass on during the regular season and will pass on it here.  Lean to Nevada +3.5 (I had the line right on 3) - but no money on it.

I like LSU tonight - but I know almost for certain that I am going to feel like jumping out of the window after I lose this one.  When I see Les Miles looking like he would rather be somewhere else - and I know I will see this - and the team might just do the same.  LSU shouldnt punt tonight.  TT should get points too - but seriously - LSU sholdnt punt once.  Now....  Will they perform?  I bet on them and my brain says yes - but my heart knows this team - and I am worried.

GL

Wednesday:

Memphis +3 for 4 units
NCST +6.5 for 1.5 units

TXAM / LVL Pass

USC / Wisky Under 50.5 for 2 units

Houston +7 for 2 units
Oklahoma -3.5 for 3 units
Mich St +10 for 3 units

thats 3 losers for you - fade away.  Or just bet the over because it seems to hit every single bowl game.  I spend days on days analyzing this stuff - and my 12 year old son said to me the other day "why dont you just take all the overs" and he is right.

I appreciate the confidence.  But nobody actually loves me at this point except my mother.

good luck and happy new year 

"These picks hurt me way more than they hurt you...."

NW +8.5 for 1 unit
FL +4 for 1.5 unit
ND +6.5 for 3 units

Iowa +6 for 4 units

Okl St +7.5 for 1 unit

PSU +6.5 for 3.5 units
WVU -1 for 4 units

GL all.  Goodbye 2015.  Good riddance.

Thank you.  Same to you.

Good call on the ML.  Okl never stopped them tonight.

Probably right.  It occurred to me that I might be raising a degenerate.

I took an ugly 0-fer today..... but seeing all the guys that are solid all season struggling in these games takes a little sting out of it.   Bowls are a dart-throwers dream....

bol pal