S Miss has huge injury issues. I watched the Conference Championship against WKU and they almost lost their whole starting team. I think they had like 13 injuries in that game alone. Worth checking status before the bowl game.
N Illinois QB situation.
BYU Coaching situation
Bowling Green. How does the MAC Champion get stuck playing GA Southern with an option attack in the Go Daddy Bowl? They cant be happy about that.
Navy playing at home for bowl game.
When is the last time 2 teams from the same conference played in a bowl game? Am I crazy in saying it has never happened? Anyway - Nevada / Col St.
Beamers last game.
Baylors qbs.
Ga St and App St first bowl game in program history.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Other notes that are not reflected in the stats:
S Miss has huge injury issues. I watched the Conference Championship against WKU and they almost lost their whole starting team. I think they had like 13 injuries in that game alone. Worth checking status before the bowl game.
N Illinois QB situation.
BYU Coaching situation
Bowling Green. How does the MAC Champion get stuck playing GA Southern with an option attack in the Go Daddy Bowl? They cant be happy about that.
Navy playing at home for bowl game.
When is the last time 2 teams from the same conference played in a bowl game? Am I crazy in saying it has never happened? Anyway - Nevada / Col St.
Beamers last game.
Baylors qbs.
Ga St and App St first bowl game in program history.
S Miss has huge injury issues. I watched the Conference Championship against WKU and they almost lost their whole starting team. I think they had like 13 injuries in that game alone. Worth checking status before the bowl game.
N Illinois QB situation.
BYU Coaching situation
Bowling Green. How does the MAC Champion get stuck playing GA Southern with an option attack in the Go Daddy Bowl? They cant be happy about that.
Navy playing at home for bowl game.
When is the last time 2 teams from the same conference played in a bowl game? Am I crazy in saying it has never happened? Anyway - Nevada / Col St.
Beamers last game.
Baylors qbs.
Ga St and App St first bowl game in program history.
Georgia Southern also
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Other notes that are not reflected in the stats:
S Miss has huge injury issues. I watched the Conference Championship against WKU and they almost lost their whole starting team. I think they had like 13 injuries in that game alone. Worth checking status before the bowl game.
N Illinois QB situation.
BYU Coaching situation
Bowling Green. How does the MAC Champion get stuck playing GA Southern with an option attack in the Go Daddy Bowl? They cant be happy about that.
Navy playing at home for bowl game.
When is the last time 2 teams from the same conference played in a bowl game? Am I crazy in saying it has never happened? Anyway - Nevada / Col St.
Beamers last game.
Baylors qbs.
Ga St and App St first bowl game in program history.
Alright, F it. I am going to post my bowl picks. F the haters.
A word of warning.... 2015 has been terrible for me overall. The last 6 weeks have been fantastic, but the 10 months before that have been terrible.
So I could go 40-0, and I could go 0-40. So FU ahead of time if you dont like how well I do. I feel like I have already shared my holy grail earlier in this thread.
On to the games.....
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Alright, F it. I am going to post my bowl picks. F the haters.
A word of warning.... 2015 has been terrible for me overall. The last 6 weeks have been fantastic, but the 10 months before that have been terrible.
So I could go 40-0, and I could go 0-40. So FU ahead of time if you dont like how well I do. I feel like I have already shared my holy grail earlier in this thread.
Arizona / UNM - my stats have this line averaging out to AZ -7. Also looking like the offenses on both sides will have the advantage. I got UNM at +10, but the current line is +8.
At +8, I take UNM +8 for 1 unit
BYU / Utah - my stats have this line at about a PK. Big rivalry game. BYU with a coach leaving. I also got the better line here of +3, but certainly anything at + money on BYU is a good bet. BYU ML on the current line is +125, so at that I would risk 1.5 units on BYU ML +125.
Ohio / App ST - Real line now about 7.5, my stats have it right at about 6.5. First bowl game for App ST - Ohio very one dimensional and one dimensional teams historically do poorly in bowl games. This one is a pass for me with real money but lets call it a lean on Ohio +7.5.
SJS / GAST - Everything I have points to a GA ST outright win here. My boy CG would call this a WTF wrong team favored game. My adjusted stats have GA ST at about a 6 point favorite - and after adding in gut feel and personal opinion - I actually think it should be higher than that. A 5-7 San Jose team travelling across country to play a team in their first bowl game. SJS with a bottom 5 overall defense in all of NCAAF. Of course - these early games have wild swings and variances - but this is a MPBCBG max play before christmas bowl game for me. F the points. GA ST ML +135 for 3.5 units. This will be the biggest game for me in the next week or so.
Ark ST / La Tech - this line is LT -2. my stats have it right at -2, and I cannot get a lean on this game. The line seems perfect to me. But the total is interesting to me.... My stats tell me that both offenses should be worse than average efficiency - and the total is sitting out there at 68. Sign me up for 1 unit on the under 68.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Arizona / UNM - my stats have this line averaging out to AZ -7. Also looking like the offenses on both sides will have the advantage. I got UNM at +10, but the current line is +8.
At +8, I take UNM +8 for 1 unit
BYU / Utah - my stats have this line at about a PK. Big rivalry game. BYU with a coach leaving. I also got the better line here of +3, but certainly anything at + money on BYU is a good bet. BYU ML on the current line is +125, so at that I would risk 1.5 units on BYU ML +125.
Ohio / App ST - Real line now about 7.5, my stats have it right at about 6.5. First bowl game for App ST - Ohio very one dimensional and one dimensional teams historically do poorly in bowl games. This one is a pass for me with real money but lets call it a lean on Ohio +7.5.
SJS / GAST - Everything I have points to a GA ST outright win here. My boy CG would call this a WTF wrong team favored game. My adjusted stats have GA ST at about a 6 point favorite - and after adding in gut feel and personal opinion - I actually think it should be higher than that. A 5-7 San Jose team travelling across country to play a team in their first bowl game. SJS with a bottom 5 overall defense in all of NCAAF. Of course - these early games have wild swings and variances - but this is a MPBCBG max play before christmas bowl game for me. F the points. GA ST ML +135 for 3.5 units. This will be the biggest game for me in the next week or so.
Ark ST / La Tech - this line is LT -2. my stats have it right at -2, and I cannot get a lean on this game. The line seems perfect to me. But the total is interesting to me.... My stats tell me that both offenses should be worse than average efficiency - and the total is sitting out there at 68. Sign me up for 1 unit on the under 68.
USF / WKU - this is a very interesting game and for whatever reason - is as polarizing as a Trump / Sanders debate. Seems like everyone has an opinion on this game - and the narrative on both sides is believable.
USF is a better class than WKU, and their defense will shut down the WKU offense who hasnt really been tested by anyone.
OR
WKU offense is ranked #1 in the country for a reason - and nobody can slow them down - especially not an American Conference afterthought.
I tend to think they pretty much even each other out - although I cant ignore the numbers. WKU is my #1 efficient offense in all of NCAAF, and they will be going up against a good - but middle of the pack defense.
There is one thing that sticks in my mind and that is that ridiculous Bahamas Bowl from last year. Yes - you know the one - the one that has left half of degenerate gamblers sleepless for the last 12 months - and the other half still unsure of how they had money the next day. I cant imagine that the players on WKU dont want to wash this off of their resume - and send Doughty out with a bang. They will be ready. File this all under conjecture - but it is my conjecture - so it makes perfect sense to me! And now that the number is under 3 (2.5 widely available) - I have to put a 1.5 unit bet on WKU -2.5.
Akron / Ut St - Line too high here. Low scoring game for sure. Gimme those extra points. Should be UT ST -3 at most. Akron +6.5 +120 for 1.5 units.
Toledo / Temple: Another WTF wrong team favored game - although this one isnt off by very much - but points will be at a premium in this one. Toledo is coachless - but will have just enough offense to win this low scoring game. Toledo +2 1.5 units.
That takes us through Tuesday. Will post the rest coming up in the next few days.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
Monday:
USF / WKU - this is a very interesting game and for whatever reason - is as polarizing as a Trump / Sanders debate. Seems like everyone has an opinion on this game - and the narrative on both sides is believable.
USF is a better class than WKU, and their defense will shut down the WKU offense who hasnt really been tested by anyone.
OR
WKU offense is ranked #1 in the country for a reason - and nobody can slow them down - especially not an American Conference afterthought.
I tend to think they pretty much even each other out - although I cant ignore the numbers. WKU is my #1 efficient offense in all of NCAAF, and they will be going up against a good - but middle of the pack defense.
There is one thing that sticks in my mind and that is that ridiculous Bahamas Bowl from last year. Yes - you know the one - the one that has left half of degenerate gamblers sleepless for the last 12 months - and the other half still unsure of how they had money the next day. I cant imagine that the players on WKU dont want to wash this off of their resume - and send Doughty out with a bang. They will be ready. File this all under conjecture - but it is my conjecture - so it makes perfect sense to me! And now that the number is under 3 (2.5 widely available) - I have to put a 1.5 unit bet on WKU -2.5.
Akron / Ut St - Line too high here. Low scoring game for sure. Gimme those extra points. Should be UT ST -3 at most. Akron +6.5 +120 for 1.5 units.
Toledo / Temple: Another WTF wrong team favored game - although this one isnt off by very much - but points will be at a premium in this one. Toledo is coachless - but will have just enough offense to win this low scoring game. Toledo +2 1.5 units.
That takes us through Tuesday. Will post the rest coming up in the next few days.
Nice thread! I like your Georgia State play a lot. I am on the other side of your Western Kentucky play as I feel the defense can control the offense of WK, but WK defense cannot control the offense of South Florida.
Best of luck to you during this Bowl Season and Happy Holidays!
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
Nice thread! I like your Georgia State play a lot. I am on the other side of your Western Kentucky play as I feel the defense can control the offense of WK, but WK defense cannot control the offense of South Florida.
Best of luck to you during this Bowl Season and Happy Holidays!
Hot Forum Topics
