Posted:
#126
Quote Originally Posted by Seditious:
@jimmy: It was a while ago, but Auburn went 32-for-151 on the ground in 2009. I wouldn't call that a run-away success, but 4.7 ypc isn't hideous.
@jimmy: It was a while ago, but Auburn went 32-for-151 on the ground in 2009. I wouldn't call that a run-away success, but 4.7 ypc isn't hideous.
Your point is well taken. Auburn's rushing stats were somewhat inflated in that game by a 67-yard run by WR Terrell Zachary on Auburn's 4th play from scrimmage. The 2009 game was the first meeting between Malzahn and Saban so Malzahn's scheme was still somewhat a novelty to the Alabama coaching staff. In fact if you look at the play-by-play in that game, Auburn gain most of their yardage on the ground in the first two possessions of the game - both resulting in touchdowns. After those first two possessions, Auburn has never had success running the ball again.
In 97 rushes in three games, that 67-yard rush stands alone as the only long rushing play against Alabama. In others words, a long run has occurred on exactly 1% of all the running plays against Alabama's defense. So as gamblers, are we going to put our money on the 1% probability or the 99% probability?
Furthermore, if we take away the outlier 67-yard run from the stats, Auburn rushed the ball 31 times for 84 yards, or 2.7 ypc. As you can see from the rushing stats in the subsequent games, 2.7 ypc is much more consistent with what we can expect to see in Saturday's game.
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