Posted:
#1
Said it before....you have to lose for 30 years in a row before you know what you're doing.
"One must learn from he who knows"
0
Anyone here 50 or older?
Posted:
#7
70, but who is counting
If you are, or wanna be, a handicapper. (not the same as gambler) you are going to have to develop certain skills and a LOT of self discipline (I call them my personal RULES). You start with money management because even good cappers can have a bad streak. Live to bet another day.
Don't play too many games. It's hard enough to find 2-3 value plays a week. Sure, there are times when you might like 5-6. When that happens, make a list of your leans, rank them, and then taper your wager amounts. Put more on your top 2 or 3, and less on the next 2-3. You don't have to bet every game. The real goal is to make money. Keep your eye on the prize.
Don't ever think you are a professional....... you are not. Play within your self. (Clint said it best: A man has to know his limitations)
Learn how to evaluate matchups, this is your only chance. The books are very very good. If you can understand how two teams matchup, find the advantage there, then you have an edge on the public bettors. The books aim for the public bettors.
Bad teams are bad teams, Good teams are good teams. Good coaches are good coaches. Bad coaches are bad coaches... Always look for an edge in those areas.
In football.... The QB is the most important player on the field. Steve Wynn said it best: "In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king" A good QB is essential in today's football game. A bad one should be faded.
Don't beat yourself up too much when you lose. Don't break your arm patting yourself on your back when you win. You can be very successful winning 2 out of 3. Nobody wins 70% NOBODY. In fact, it's hard to hit over 75% just picking the winner, without the spread.... try it sometime. (IF you pick every game)
Never put too much weight on a teams last bad or good performance. Books use that perception to set their lines against the public for the next week.
Your bet has nothing to do with who wins or loses a game. It has nothing to do with which teams you like or hate. That's a sure way to get to take advantage of a "reload bonus" It has to do with VALUE. Value is found where you find a matchup advantage for a team that is greater than the books line.
I have more, but you have to do these things well before you are worthy Grasshopper.
0
Posted:
#8
Quote Originally Posted by The_BigDog:
nice write up , numerous excellent points and observations
70, but who is counting
If you are, or wanna be, a handicapper. (not the same as gambler) you are going to have to develop certain skills and a LOT of self discipline (I call them my personal RULES). You start with money management because even good cappers can have a bad streak. Live to bet another day.
Don't play too many games. It's hard enough to find 2-3 value plays a week. Sure, there are times when you might like 5-6. When that happens, make a list of your leans, rank them, and then taper your wager amounts. Put more on your top 2 or 3, and less on the next 2-3. You don't have to bet every game. The real goal is to make money. Keep your eye on the prize.
Don't ever think you are a professional....... you are not. Play within your self. (Clint said it best: A man has to know his limitations)
Learn how to evaluate matchups, this is your only chance. The books are very very good. If you can understand how two teams matchup, find the advantage there, then you have an edge on the public bettors. The books aim for the public bettors.
Bad teams are bad teams, Good teams are good teams. Good coaches are good coaches. Bad coaches are bad coaches... Always look for an edge in those areas.
In football.... The QB is the most important player on the field. Steve Wynn said it best: "In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king" A good QB is essential in today's football game. A bad one should be faded.
Don't beat yourself up too much when you lose. Don't break your arm patting yourself on your back when you win. You can be very successful winning 2 out of 3. Nobody wins 70% NOBODY. In fact, it's hard to hit over 75% just picking the winner, without the spread.... try it sometime. (IF you pick every game)
Never put too much weight on a teams last bad or good performance. Books use that perception to set their lines against the public for the next week.
Your bet has nothing to do with who wins or loses a game. It has nothing to do with which teams you like or hate. That's a sure way to get to take advantage of a "reload bonus" It has to do with VALUE. Value is found where you find a matchup advantage for a team that is greater than the books line.
I have more, but you have to do these things well before you are worthy Grasshopper.
0
Posted:
#11
Quote Originally Posted by The_BigDog:
70, but who is counting
If you are, or wanna be, a handicapper. (not the same as gambler) you are going to have to develop certain skills and a LOT of self discipline (I call them my personal RULES). You start with money management because even good cappers can have a bad streak. Live to bet another day.
Don't play too many games. It's hard enough to find 2-3 value plays a week. Sure, there are times when you might like 5-6. When that happens, make a list of your leans, rank them, and then taper your wager amounts. Put more on your top 2 or 3, and less on the next 2-3. You don't have to bet every game. The real goal is to make money. Keep your eye on the prize.
Don't ever think you are a professional....... you are not. Play within your self. (Clint said it best: A man has to know his limitations)
Learn how to evaluate matchups, this is your only chance. The books are very very good. If you can understand how two teams matchup, find the advantage there, then you have an edge on the public bettors. The books aim for the public bettors.
Bad teams are bad teams, Good teams are good teams. Good coaches are good coaches. Bad coaches are bad coaches... Always look for an edge in those areas.
In football.... The QB is the most important player on the field. Steve Wynn said it best: "In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king" A good QB is essential in today's football game. A bad one should be faded.
Don't beat yourself up too much when you lose. Don't break your arm patting yourself on your back when you win. You can be very successful winning 2 out of 3. Nobody wins 70% NOBODY. In fact, it's hard to hit over 75% just picking the winner, without the spread.... try it sometime. (IF you pick every game)
Never put too much weight on a teams last bad or good performance. Books use that perception to set their lines against the public for the next week.
Your bet has nothing to do with who wins or loses a game. It has nothing to do with which teams you like or hate. That's a sure way to get to take advantage of a "reload bonus" It has to do with VALUE. Value is found where you find a matchup advantage for a team that is greater than the books line.
I have more, but you have to do these things well before you are worthy Grasshopper.
Nice write up!
My 2 cents... Rules I try to apply before I wager on a team, which is soooooo hard for me to do.
Rule #1) Never bet on your favorite player or team.
Rule #2) Avoid wagering on teams that are below .500 or at the bottom of the win column.
Rule #3) Be consistent with your wagers, money management is essential.
Rule #4) Take into consideration the QB, DEFENSE, AND COACH. Which ever team has the better of those 3 positions should be your pick.
Rule #5) Avoid listening to so called football experts... they cloud your mind and really don't care about a point spread. Easier said than done...
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Posted:
#13
Those who really know about handicapping football do not share their knowledge on public forums. What they KNOW is far too valuable to be given away for free. They NEVER LOSE. Not one game. They may throw a pick your way just to give you a thrill, but you'll never know how they arrived at their conclusion. Their biggest problem is how to avoid drawing attention to themselves. Most everyone THINKS and wants to believe they know how to handicap, but they're not even close to what these others have uncovered. I wish I knew what they know.
0
Posted:
#15
First off GREAT post by the_BigDog
Had some degen habits back in school just to get that "rush" and used to get wiped out. Started using Google sheets (Google's version of Excel you can edit anywhere) this summer to track EVERY bet in baseball. Now I'm using it for nfl and ncaa. Sticking to same bet amounts each time. I said to myself, look if you're any good, prove it and grind out a profit by picking winners. Profit from your picks, not going small on some and large on others. Money management 101 I guess but A LOT easier said than done.
And you know what? My sheet tells me so far in this young season, I'm not that great at picking football, even though I love it. It's cutting into the plus $ I've made with baseball. So I'm gonna focus on baseball and try and finish strong with the sport that I've had some relative success with. Play to my strengths so to speak. I feel a lot better about my picks and with each one it doesn't hurt should I lose. But I expect to win. 
0
Posted:
#18
Quote Originally Posted by gobuddygo:
Those who really know about handicapping football do not share their knowledge on public forums. What they KNOW is far too valuable to be given away for free. They NEVER LOSE. Not one game. They may throw a pick your way just to give you a thrill, but you'll never know how they arrived at their conclusion. Their biggest problem is how to avoid drawing attention to themselves. Most everyone THINKS and wants to believe they know how to handicap, but they're not even close to what these others have uncovered. I wish I knew what they know.
Those who really know about handicapping football do not share their knowledge on public forums. What they KNOW is far too valuable to be given away for free. They NEVER LOSE. Not one game. They may throw a pick your way just to give you a thrill, but you'll never know how they arrived at their conclusion. Their biggest problem is how to avoid drawing attention to themselves. Most everyone THINKS and wants to believe they know how to handicap, but they're not even close to what these others have uncovered. I wish I knew what they know.
This is a monstrous pile of crap!
0
Posted:
#19
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:
This is a monstrous pile of crap!
You sir, are wrong. You may want to think no one ever loses, but that is not so. You may think because you lose and everyone else that you know or ever heard of loses, but there are some who DO NOT LOSE. Handicapping for them is STRICTLY A BUSINESS VENTURE. They are not interested in the action....only the end result. And I'll let you in on a little secret.... the games they do play cover by very large margins. Their outcomes are not decided in the final minute or the fourth quarter for that matter. They know the Who, What, Where, When, Why and What For of handicapping college football.
0
Posted:
#20
GoBuddyGo:
Their is no way anybody hits 100% of there picks.
Other than inside info from trainers and players etc.
I can watch the same games and get the same stats as anyone else..
By the way Im 46 Viagra free love my Testosterone injections.
Been around gambling as long as I can remember as I had family who use to run the numbers for the wize guys.
biggest thing holding me back is I have seen it ruin families
and that throws caution in my sails..
Good Luck
Their is no way anybody hits 100% of there picks.
Other than inside info from trainers and players etc.
I can watch the same games and get the same stats as anyone else..
By the way Im 46 Viagra free love my Testosterone injections.
Been around gambling as long as I can remember as I had family who use to run the numbers for the wize guys.
biggest thing holding me back is I have seen it ruin families
and that throws caution in my sails..
Good Luck
0
Posted:
#21
Quote Originally Posted by gobuddygo:
You sir, are wrong. You may want to think no one ever loses, but that is not so. You may think because you lose and everyone else that you know or ever heard of loses, but there are some who DO NOT LOSE.
No, I am 100% right, and I would stake my life and my eternal soul on that fact! I have lived in Las Vegas for more than 35 years, and have spent untold hours in the top books in Vegas, and spent untold hours talking with sharks and whales... and the monicker of the BEST OF THE BEST is that you need to embrace the fact that you CANNOT win every game.
Not only are you absolutely out of your mind to think what you do, but any and all of the best cappers will tell you that what makes them successful, and what separates them from the rest, is that they understand that handicapping is about the longhaul results, and that you need to be willing to accept losses along the way...
Whoever sold you that myth, was selling you a snake oil pipe dream!
This has nothing to do with what I want to believe or cannot accept... I know very well that the best cappers cover their games by large margins, and that they know the inside and out regarding the information... but what I also know is that THEY KNOW it is not possible to win every game, and that you just have to take a loss once in awhile!
You are selling tripe, and I don't swallow tripe... neither should anyone else!
0
Posted:
#23
Quote Originally Posted by Shark_Attack:
This guy is just trying to set up a tout service... but he is more full of garbage than a sewer system!
This guy is just trying to set up a tout service... but he is more full of garbage than a sewer system!
There are individuals who post garbage on this forum
every day hoping to get under someone's skin and
turn positive threads into a contentious dialogue
which takes away from the positive content. This is,
and probably always will be the case.
I am hopeful that most on this forum are smart enough
to realize B.S. when they read it, and that if we ignore
those who want to start something, they will realize they
do not have an audience here and disappear.
I believe it's to our advantage to keep our focus on the
business at hand... Winning and ignoring the
distractions.
Best of Luck to All
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
0
Posted:
#24
Quote Originally Posted by gobuddygo:
You sir, are wrong. You may want to think no one ever loses, but that is not so. You may think because you lose and everyone else that you know or ever heard of loses, but there are some who DO NOT LOSE. Handicapping for them is STRICTLY A BUSINESS VENTURE. They are not interested in the action....only the end result. And I'll let you in on a little secret.... the games they do play cover by very large margins. Their outcomes are not decided in the final minute or the fourth quarter for that matter. They know the Who, What, Where, When, Why and What For of handicapping college football.
So because it's "STRICTLY A BUSINESS VENTURE" it means they never make mistakes? That's one of the most ABSURD things I have every read here, and this place is FULL of nonsense! EVERY business makes mistakes, even the most successful ones.
I agree shark, this guy is trolling for some tout business. No one can be this stupid.
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Posted:
#25
Quote Originally Posted by gobuddygo:
Those who really know about handicapping football do not share their knowledge on public forums. What they KNOW is far too valuable to be given away for free. They NEVER LOSE. Not one game. They may throw a pick your way just to give you a thrill, but you'll never know how they arrived at their conclusion. Their biggest problem is how to avoid drawing attention to themselves. Most everyone THINKS and wants to believe they know how to handicap, but they're not even close to what these others have uncovered. I wish I knew what they know.
Those who really know about handicapping football do not share their knowledge on public forums. What they KNOW is far too valuable to be given away for free. They NEVER LOSE. Not one game. They may throw a pick your way just to give you a thrill, but you'll never know how they arrived at their conclusion. Their biggest problem is how to avoid drawing attention to themselves. Most everyone THINKS and wants to believe they know how to handicap, but they're not even close to what these others have uncovered. I wish I knew what they know.
How dare you follow such an excellent write-up as BigDog's with this pathetic pre-tout drivel?
0
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