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A Little advice for those crying

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Posts: 55

gambleholic63

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Posted: Jan. 1, 2019 - 10:28 PM ET #26

Once again, the math is simple. What % of football sports wagers result in a push? A half point will cost you an extra 10% and 20% on or off the 3 or the 7. Compare that very valuable 10/20/30% to the actual odds of that half point turning your bet into a winner or a push off of a loser.

If anyone argues that it's a good idea, I feel sorry for your brain.

Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!

WahooS

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Posts: 25682

Posted: Jan. 1, 2019 - 10:28 PM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by gtnp:

dude who cares what they say. I buy points all the time when the time is right and been doing it for over 30 years so dont argue with these people. Its bailed me out from losing bets plenty of times. People dont get it, they think that risking the extra juice is only a losing proposition, but what happens when it changes a lose to a win? I had bought OSU down from-4.5 to -3 and it alsomst saved my entire wager late if that 2 point was good, so screw them. You wont change their minds and they wont change yours. Let it go and move on

sometimes yes, it may work

That’s not what his original post is advising

WahooS

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Posts: 25682

Posted: Jan. 1, 2019 - 10:31 PM ET #28

he says “it’s always wise to buy back to original line Vegas sets”

Nobody that is any good uses that strategy period, it’s not an argument , it’s a fact

period

Dsr_9

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Joined: Sep, 2002

Posts: 1186

Posted: Jan. 1, 2019 - 10:31 PM ET #29

And when you title your thread "A LITTLE ADVICE FOR THOSE CRYING", you are gonna have a difficult time changing anyone's mind, even if its a sound idea.

Tone it down, Trump.

gtnp

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Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 1993

Posted: Jan. 1, 2019 - 10:39 PM ET #30

unfortunately thats mostly what this website has become, derogatory insults thrown around at each other. It used to be a place to come for insight and conversation. Now its "look at me" and "your a fool" type crap. The shame about it is we are all after the same goal and cant put the egos aside for 5 minutes to make a post. Goodluck with your wagers

Dsr_9

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Joined: Sep, 2002

Posts: 1186

Posted: Jan. 1, 2019 - 10:41 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by gtnp:

unfortunately thats mostly what this website has become, derogatory insults thrown around at each other. It used to be a place to come for insight and conversation. Now its "look at me" and "your a fool" type crap. The shame about it is we are all after the same goal and cant put the egos aside for 5 minutes to make a post. Goodluck with your wagers

AMEN TO THAT.

Againstuclowns

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Joined: Feb, 2018

Posts: 235

Posted: Jan. 1, 2019 - 11:03 PM ET #32

Grab them by the vagina lol jk guys I probably came off the wrong way after seeing all these newbies on here cry after the Ohio game or those that blame the capper on these forums for giving them certain plays blame yourself for not studying but no I don’t buy points on every game I should’ve been more clear I study deeply into the games I bet and certain teams

WahooS

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Posts: 25682

Posted: Jan. 1, 2019 - 11:08 PM ET #33

Quote Originally Posted by Againstuclowns:

Grab them by the vagina lol jk guys I probably came off the wrong way after seeing all these newbies on here cry after the Ohio game or those that blame the capper on these forums for giving them certain plays blame yourself for not studying but no I don’t buy points on every game I should’ve been more clear I study deeply into the games I bet and certain teams

now this Sir, I can agree with

Happy New Year

Achilles1629

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Posts: 12504

Posted: Jan. 1, 2019 - 11:11 PM ET #34

To make a blanket statement that buying points isn’t smart, I have to disagree. Buying the hook can be very big especially in big bet games. Buying over a half point imo is dumb but getting the hook isn’t necessary a bad thing if you have good reasoning behind it.

gambleholic63

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Posts: 4412

Posted: Jan. 1, 2019 - 11:45 PM ET #35

[Quote: Originally Posted by Achilles1629]To make a blanket statement that buying points isn’t smart, I have to disagree. Buying the hook can be very big especially in big bet games. Buying over a half point imo is dumb but getting the hook isn’t necessary a bad thing if you have good reasoning behind it.

With all due respect, predicting if a game is going to land on the number by buying a 1/2 point is a situation where you are constantly taking he worst of it with respect to the "true odds" of the event. It's significantly statistically worse than taking AK vs. QQ over and over again. You might get lucky here and there, but the extra vig on your misses will add up to a negative EV situation and be a drain to your bankroll unless you are on the extreme end of the bell curve (call it the luck-box curve). We can't see the future in predicting these things and if we could we wouldn't need to buy points.

Let's not even get into the discussion of paying 20% on or off the 3 or 7.

Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!

jflydaddy

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Posted: Jan. 1, 2019 - 11:59 PM ET #36

well i got royally screwed like 10 min after i bet it at 6 it went too 4.5 int the number i would have bought the hook for sure, i really don't like betting with the public and we all saw the exact reason why, just sometimes magical bullshit happens 28-3 was counting my $ thankfully i hedged at 17.5 and 10.5 for like +205, saw it coming when they had the ball for the last drive , during the game i placed my georgia bet, during the game i was like screw this texas is winning this got them at -125 too win georgia doesn't want too be there. i really hate making that kind of bet where you can lose both ways but sometimes you can just tell, i had the titans +6 i saw that they weren't doing garbage got colts at -14.5, got really lucky on the 1 because as soon as i made that bet titans made a pick 6

Vek

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Joined: Sep, 2016

Posts: 467

Posted: Jan. 2, 2019 - 12:07 AM ET #37

Quote Originally Posted by Againstuclowns:

when you bet on a team it’s always wise to buy the amount of points it takes to take the line of the team you chose to the opening line VEGAS set out to begin with before people start hammering it for example opening like for example Ohio state opened up at -4.5 and ended up at like -6.5 before the line moved down I took Ohio -4.5 bought 2 points but I did not lose now with Texas I bought up to 13.5 hope this wins also GL guys

Fake news

FRANKtheBANKss

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Posted: Jan. 2, 2019 - 1:18 AM ET #38

OSU vs Washington line bounced like a pinball the last 30 minutes before Kick-off. I had three windows open and they were all jumping went from 4 to 6 a right before Kick-off. Not sure what you mean. Always have a few books if you can

God is Good and the Ball don't Lie.

bballplaya88

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Posts: 474

Posted: Jan. 2, 2019 - 3:09 AM ET #39

Well said GTNP.

packersbackers

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Posted: Jan. 2, 2019 - 5:56 AM ET #40

Quote Originally Posted by jflydaddy:

well i got royally screwed like 10 min after i bet it at 6 it went too 4.5 int the number i would have bought the hook for sure, i really don't like betting with the public and we all saw the exact reason why, just sometimes magical bullshit happens 28-3 was counting my $ thankfully i hedged at 17.5 and 10.5 for like +205, saw it coming when they had the ball for the last drive , during the game i placed my georgia bet, during the game i was like screw this texas is winning this got them at -125 too win georgia doesn't want too be there. i really hate making that kind of bet where you can lose both ways but sometimes you can just tell, i had the titans +6 i saw that they weren't doing garbage got colts at -14.5, got really lucky on the 1 because as soon as i made that bet titans made a pick 6

To funny an_roll_laugh

MAGAm Yisrael Chai

Vituperate

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Posts: 1196

Posted: Jan. 2, 2019 - 8:08 AM ET #41

I rarely try to meddle in others betting choices but I gotta speak up. This comment is insane and just because it worked out so well yesterday does NOT make this any kind of long-term strategy.

I did buy down from 6 to -5.5. Look up the overall percentages for the number of games CFB games landing on 5. A little over 2% chance. Extremely rare.

What the line opened at means NOTHING! If you are to buy down the line it must be only to pick up key numbers.

Glad it worked out for you but this is not a winning strategy overall.

thorpe

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Joined: Sep, 2002

Posts: 12927

Posted: Jan. 2, 2019 - 8:40 AM ET #42

If there was value in buying points, the book would not sell them to you. The book is not in the business of giving you extra value on bets.

All sucker bets will win sometimes. Like all the extra bets casinos offer on blackjack. I saw one that pays 25-1 if you get a "perfect pair" (same suit and same number). A little math shows this should pay more than 50-1. Half the table bet this every hand...yes, it wins sometimes, but it is still throwing away your money

THEMUGG

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Posts: 38234

Posted: Jan. 2, 2019 - 10:59 AM ET #43

THEMUGG

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Posts: 38234

Posted: Jan. 2, 2019 - 11:10 AM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by Againstuclowns:

If you don’t have the money to buy to the opening line you probably shouldn’t gamble and so far this has worked for me of course I bet very wisely and I don’t always buy points just in cases like these you clowns

Or, hmmmm, & I'm just spit-balling here, you could take the other side? If a line is so close that you feel like you need to buy points then it should be a clue that it's a "no play".

Achilles1629

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Posts: 12504

Posted: Jan. 2, 2019 - 12:18 PM ET #45

Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:

Let's not even get into the discussion of paying 20% on or off the 3 or 7.

gambleholic63

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Posts: 4412

Posted: Jan. 2, 2019 - 1:06 PM ET #46

Again, with all due respect. You say you "ain't gonna argue" and then you continue to show me "proof" that buying points works.

To this, I say.....pick ANY game, the BIGGEST game, the BEST game to buy a half point or a point or whatever. Just make sure it's the smartest way to buy points. And guess what? You are still taking the WORST OF IT....worse than AK vs. QQ. So happy new year to you too! You do you and others like myself will continue to avoid taking the worst of it. The end!

Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!

barneybeans

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Joined: Mar, 2003

Posts: 9982

Posted: Jan. 2, 2019 - 1:47 PM ET #47

Quote Originally Posted by Againstuclowns:

If you’ve been betting sports long enough you’d know that half a point either saves you or kills you so like I said if it hurts you to buy the extra points you need to stop betting

Buying points is foolish from a mathematical perspective. I know in NFL these past 2 years the lines are sharper but do the research. Less than 15% of games does the line actually come into play 4 points in either direction - that an 8 point swing. This is why teasers are offered - yes there will always be that handful of games where a lot of early gamblers won because they got in getting +6.5, line goes to +4.5, game lands on 5 and the earlies get the W - but look at all the bowl games this season - there were 3 games like that out of all the bowl games. Buying points is the fast track to crushing your bankroll - if your play matters down to a half point or 2 DON'T BET SOMETHING THAT CLOSE - simple as. Most of the time you are buying on the 3,7 and paying even more of a premium. JMHO

The pen is mightier than the pigs

gambleholic63

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Posts: 4412

Posted: Jan. 2, 2019 - 2:11 PM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by barneybeans:

Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63:

Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

To make a blanket statement that buying points isn’t smart, I have to disagree. Buying the hook can be very big especially in big bet games. Buying over a half point imo is dumb but getting the hook isn’t necessary a bad thing if you have good reasoning behind it. With all due respect, predicting if a game is going to land on the number by buying a 1/2 point is a situation where you are constantly taking he worst of it with respect to the "true odds" of the event. It's significantly statistically worse than taking AK vs. QQ over and over again. You might get lucky here and there, but the extra vig on your misses will add up to a negative EV situation and be a drain to your bankroll unless you are on the extreme end of the bell curve (call it the luck-box curve). We can't see the future in predicting these things and if we could we wouldn't need to buy points. Let's not even get into the discussion of paying 20% on or off the 3 or 7.

Ok ok....I’ve been down this road with you before. I ain’t gonna argue with you. You do you, I do me. Cool?! I can’t tell how many times I’ve won games by buying that half point. Of course at times it hasn’t mattered but if I feel it necessary, I do it. I had a pretty solid year this year in the NFL and along the journey this guy bought some hooks. They paid off many times. Hopefully you did well this year in that I have no idea where your picks or records ever are. All good man. Happy new year.,Again, with all due respect. You say you "ain't gonna argue" and then you continue to show me "proof" that buying points works. To this, I say.....pick ANY game, the BIGGEST game, the BEST game to buy a half point or a point or whatever. Just make sure it's the smartest way to buy points. And guess what? You are still taking the WORST OF IT....worse than AK vs. QQ. So happy new year to you too! You do you and others like myself will continue to avoid taking the worst of it. The end!

AMEN barneybeans! Some people just can't avoid taking the worst of it. I LOL at the statement that it's wise to buy points "in big bet games" like they have some special ability to know when to buy points. All we can do is preach the MATH and hope that others see the wisdom in it.

Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!