Those aren't his writeups....unless he works for Statfox
BOLTA
Youn do have a point but alot of people that tail Natural likes to see his research and picks, I don't think they care where the info. comes from. I use alot of diff. sites to handicap my games that I'm sure alot of people here don't know about. Mainly for NFL though.
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Quote Originally Posted by Trooper64:
Those aren't his writeups....unless he works for Statfox
BOLTA
Youn do have a point but alot of people that tail Natural likes to see his research and picks, I don't think they care where the info. comes from. I use alot of diff. sites to handicap my games that I'm sure alot of people here don't know about. Mainly for NFL though.
Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1948. And in order to break that trend, it will need to beat an SEC team in one of the high-profile New Year’s Day games, the Outback Bowl. The Wildcats haven’t played on Jan. 1 since 1997. They are a 7.5-point underdog to an Auburn team, which won just two of its L7 games in 2009. That could prove to be an important line position, as the underdog has covered the number each of the L5 times the pointspread exceeded four points in this bowl series. Auburn was a low-scoring bowl team under former coach Tommy Tuberville, going under in its L7, with the games producing just 32.4 points per game. The Tigers were 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in that span. Northwestern won its L3 games both SU and ATS to finish at 8-4.
When Auburn faced defensive teams that ranked 30th or higher at the end of the regular season, it averaged 34.5 points per game. Northwestern finished 43rd in total defense this year. The Tigers’ scoring was held down by fast SEC defenses, something the Wildcat defenders will not be accused of. Northwestern averaged 25.2 points per game and it should have no problem surpassing that figure since Auburn surrendered almost 27 points per contest (26.9). The cast of players change, however, it is not an accident the average score of Northwestern’s last six bowl games is over 70 points, with the Wildcats conceding 43.8 points per game against unfamiliar opponents in which they have been an underdog, just like this New Year’s Day opener.
This total has been set far too low in a game between two high-powered offenses IMO. Auburn scores 32.9 points/game and averages 432 total yards/game with a balanced attack that averages 214 rushing yards and 218 passing yards per contest. In a conference filled with great Big Ten defenses, the Wildcats managed to average 386 total yards/game with 120 rushing and 266 passing. Auburn gives up 240 passing yards/game on the road, so the Wildcats should have their way with the Tigers through the air. The OVER is 7-1 in Auburn's last 8 games as a favorite.
5* Northwestern/Auburn OVER 54 (hook)
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Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa, FL
Jan. 1, 2010
11:00 AM EST - ESPN
Northwestern vs Auburn
Northwestern hasn’t won a bowl game since 1948. And in order to break that trend, it will need to beat an SEC team in one of the high-profile New Year’s Day games, the Outback Bowl. The Wildcats haven’t played on Jan. 1 since 1997. They are a 7.5-point underdog to an Auburn team, which won just two of its L7 games in 2009. That could prove to be an important line position, as the underdog has covered the number each of the L5 times the pointspread exceeded four points in this bowl series. Auburn was a low-scoring bowl team under former coach Tommy Tuberville, going under in its L7, with the games producing just 32.4 points per game. The Tigers were 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in that span. Northwestern won its L3 games both SU and ATS to finish at 8-4.
When Auburn faced defensive teams that ranked 30th or higher at the end of the regular season, it averaged 34.5 points per game. Northwestern finished 43rd in total defense this year. The Tigers’ scoring was held down by fast SEC defenses, something the Wildcat defenders will not be accused of. Northwestern averaged 25.2 points per game and it should have no problem surpassing that figure since Auburn surrendered almost 27 points per contest (26.9). The cast of players change, however, it is not an accident the average score of Northwestern’s last six bowl games is over 70 points, with the Wildcats conceding 43.8 points per game against unfamiliar opponents in which they have been an underdog, just like this New Year’s Day opener.
This total has been set far too low in a game between two high-powered offenses IMO. Auburn scores 32.9 points/game and averages 432 total yards/game with a balanced attack that averages 214 rushing yards and 218 passing yards per contest. In a conference filled with great Big Ten defenses, the Wildcats managed to average 386 total yards/game with 120 rushing and 266 passing. Auburn gives up 240 passing yards/game on the road, so the Wildcats should have their way with the Tigers through the air. The OVER is 7-1 in Auburn's last 8 games as a favorite.
Expect plenty of hype surrounding Bobby Bowden’s last game on the sideline for Florida State, as his team takes on West Virginia in the Gator Bowl. Whether or not the Seminoles can make the game memorable for Bowden remains to be seen. And whether or not they are deserving of playing on New Year’s Day, with their 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS mark, is certainly debatable. In unfamiliar fashion, Florida State owns perhaps the worst defensive unit of any bowl team, yielding 443.4 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. It has been a sound bowl team, however, going 3-2 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in its L5, having gone OVER the total each time. West Virginia is 9-3, yet plays as just a fieldgoal favorite. The Mountaineers have won four straight bowl games.
I’ve already heard it 100 times since Bowden decided to retire…Florida State would love to send him out on a winning note. Blah, blah, blah. Wanting and being able to are two entirely different things and when you simply look at this game from a strength perspective, West Virginia is 9-3 with a Outplay Factor Rating of +7.9, while Florida State is 6-6 with an Outplay Factor +4.1. The Seminoles are even down their starting quarterback from the season. In truth, this is a .500 Florida State team that has perhaps the worst defensive unit of ANY of the 68 bowl teams. It is only playing on New Year’s Day because it begged for a game in the state of Florida. The Bowden motivation will only take the Seminoles so far. West Virginia rolls!
Florida St. has absolutely no defense for the speed of Noel Devine, or QB Jarret Brown. The Noles are also down to a backup QB for this one who has 2 TD's and 6 INT's in just 82 attempts. I'm not overlooking the imbalance of these teams, with a team that is simply not qualified for a New Year's Day Bowl appearance. The Mountaineers have won four consecutive bowls and # 5 is on tap here as West Virginia dominates in all aspects of the game here today. Seminoles are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The reality remains that this Seminoles team just isn’t very good. FSU is really bad on defense, ranking #110 nationally in total defense and the coaching staff is in disarray with Jimbo Fisher already making a number of hirings and firings to get ready for next year. Mountaineers are simply a much superior team in every phase of the game with a big play QB in Jarrett Brown and running back in Noel Devine.
8* West Virginia Mountaineers -2 (hook)
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Gator Bowl
Municipal Stadium
Jacksonville, FL
Jan. 1, 2010
1:00 PM EST - CBS
Florida State vs West Virginia(16)
Expect plenty of hype surrounding Bobby Bowden’s last game on the sideline for Florida State, as his team takes on West Virginia in the Gator Bowl. Whether or not the Seminoles can make the game memorable for Bowden remains to be seen. And whether or not they are deserving of playing on New Year’s Day, with their 6-6 SU and 3-9 ATS mark, is certainly debatable. In unfamiliar fashion, Florida State owns perhaps the worst defensive unit of any bowl team, yielding 443.4 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play. It has been a sound bowl team, however, going 3-2 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in its L5, having gone OVER the total each time. West Virginia is 9-3, yet plays as just a fieldgoal favorite. The Mountaineers have won four straight bowl games.
I’ve already heard it 100 times since Bowden decided to retire…Florida State would love to send him out on a winning note. Blah, blah, blah. Wanting and being able to are two entirely different things and when you simply look at this game from a strength perspective, West Virginia is 9-3 with a Outplay Factor Rating of +7.9, while Florida State is 6-6 with an Outplay Factor +4.1. The Seminoles are even down their starting quarterback from the season. In truth, this is a .500 Florida State team that has perhaps the worst defensive unit of ANY of the 68 bowl teams. It is only playing on New Year’s Day because it begged for a game in the state of Florida. The Bowden motivation will only take the Seminoles so far. West Virginia rolls!
Florida St. has absolutely no defense for the speed of Noel Devine, or QB Jarret Brown. The Noles are also down to a backup QB for this one who has 2 TD's and 6 INT's in just 82 attempts. I'm not overlooking the imbalance of these teams, with a team that is simply not qualified for a New Year's Day Bowl appearance. The Mountaineers have won four consecutive bowls and # 5 is on tap here as West Virginia dominates in all aspects of the game here today. Seminoles are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Seminoles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. The reality remains that this Seminoles team just isn’t very good. FSU is really bad on defense, ranking #110 nationally in total defense and the coaching staff is in disarray with Jimbo Fisher already making a number of hirings and firings to get ready for next year. Mountaineers are simply a much superior team in every phase of the game with a big play QB in Jarrett Brown and running back in Noel Devine.
Penn State has gone 7-3 in bowl games since 1995, but two of those three losses came in the Capital One (formerly Florida Citrus) Bowl series. In fact, the Nittany Lions scored just 15 points in those two games. They’ll look to bust out offensively, or at least simply outscore LSU, in the 2010 game, which should be defensive oriented. Penn State yielded just 11.8 points per game, en route to a 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS record. LSU was 9-3, allowing just 16.0 points per game. The Tigers will also be looking to extend a run of overall success in bowl games, as they boast a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS record since 1995. Under head coach Les Miles, the Tigers are 15-6 ATS in games versus non-conference foes. Penn State was a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year.
On the surface, Penn State (10-2) versus LSU (9-3) would seem like a premier bowl matchup. However, despite both teams’ lofty records, the reality is that neither of these teams were serious factors in their respective conference races. Combined, they were 0-4 against BCS conference foes and more interestingly, their offenses generated just 8.8 points per game in those matchups. Essentially, against quality opposition, both of these offenses shut down. There are also two very simple, yet powerful, trends that point to this one staying under the total of 44. Head coach Joe Paterno and Penn State are 92-69 going UNDER the total since 1992. Finally, if you would’ve blindly bet the UNDER on all Penn State and LSU games this year, you’d have some extra holiday spending money (15-7, +7.3 Units). I’ll call for that trend to continue.
A Penn State team that was out-classed vs. Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl last year brings a thin resume to these proceedings, with the non-conference schedule seeing them favored by at least -29.5 in every game, and the only real step-up affairs being home losses to Ohio State and Iowa. Yet they somehow have been given the early favorite’s role vs. a team that will cause them matchup problems. The issue for the Nittany Lions was a young OL that never developed, with the ground game reaching 200 yards only once in 11 lined games, and that group will have problems with an athletic L.S.U. defensive front. For the Tigers the issues were not talent but consistency, perhaps what we are going to have to expect from a Les Miles team, though he has beaten the spread by a stunning 122 points in going 4-0 ATS in his bowl games. The biggest edge of all here might be the battle for field position, with L.S.U. bringing a punt unit that is 14th in net punting, and a return unit keyed by Trindon Holliday that led the nation at 18.6. Meanwhile Penn State was 106th and 107th in those same categories. The 10-2 Nittany Lions were considered for a BCS bowl bid but eventually had to settle for the Capital One Bowl. They may be a little disappointed to have not have received that opportunity. However, the fact remains that this Penn State club has zero wins against a top-25 team this season. While the Tigers struggled at times this season with injuries at running back and suspect quarterback play, LSU is loaded with talent between the hedges. They played Alabama and Florida very tough despite losing both games. They took a 15-10 lead into the 4th quarter at Alabama before the Tide scored 14 unanswered points to pull that game out. Against the Gators, the Tigers were in a 10-3 dogfight midway through the 4th quarter before Florida knocked in a field goal to win 13-3. LSU is not as good as those two teams but this team will definitely improve with the month of preparation they had for this bowl game. Coach Les Miles takes very seriously the opportunity to make significant strides with his team during this time off. He is 4-0 in bowl games at LSU with an average winning margin of just over four-touchdowns. Look for Miles to have addressed his running back problems. The top-three running backs on the depth chart were lost to injury this season. And while there was hope that Charles Scott would be able to return for this game, he is now listed as doubtful with his collarbone. But Miles has had plenty of time to make adjustments and there are options on the roster who played in these three players absence. In particular, look for kick return specialist, Trindon Holliday, to become even more involved with the month of practice time. He may very well be the fastest player in college football. QB Jordan Jefferson improved his play as the season went on. In his last five games, he threw 9 TD passes to just three interceptions. The sophomore should definitely be even better with another month of practice time with his coaches. Miles will have this team ready and will want to use this game as a bridge for next season. Penn State quarterback, Daryll Clark, often wilts in the pressure of big games (as he did against Ohio State and Iowa). He threw ten interceptions this season and has thrown seven interceptions in his four career losses at Penn State. LSU has an outstanding defense as they rank 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 16 PPG. Penn State typically plays a weak non-conference schedule which is probably a by-product of their previous days as an independent outside the Big 10. But this lack of a challenging schedule is telling. The Nittany Lions have failed to cover in their last four non-conference games while LSU has covered 15 of their last 21 games played outside of the SEC -- producing our specific 19-6 ATS combined winning angle. The rigors of SEC play seem to better prepare LSU when they then go outside the conference to compete. Lastly, Penn State managed to average 7.76 yards per play in their 42-14 win over Michigan State -- but this places them in a empirical play-against angle that has been 77% effective over the last ten seasons. Teams that average 390-440 YPG (Penn State averages 412.5) coming off a game where they totaled more than 7.25 yards per play, who now play a team that averages 280-330 YPG (LSU totals 309.8 YPG), have then gone on to fail to cover the spread in 37 of 48 situations. LSU will raise their level of play once again for this bowl game against an overrated Penn State team.
2* LSU/PSU UNDER 43 (3* if you got it at UNDER 44 when it first came out as I did)
7* LSU pk
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Capital One Bowl
Citrus Bowl Stadium
Orlando, FL
Jan. 1, 2010
1:00 PM EST - ABC
Louisiana State(12) vs Penn State(13)
Penn State has gone 7-3 in bowl games since 1995, but two of those three losses came in the Capital One (formerly Florida Citrus) Bowl series. In fact, the Nittany Lions scored just 15 points in those two games. They’ll look to bust out offensively, or at least simply outscore LSU, in the 2010 game, which should be defensive oriented. Penn State yielded just 11.8 points per game, en route to a 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS record. LSU was 9-3, allowing just 16.0 points per game. The Tigers will also be looking to extend a run of overall success in bowl games, as they boast a 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS record since 1995. Under head coach Les Miles, the Tigers are 15-6 ATS in games versus non-conference foes. Penn State was a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year.
On the surface, Penn State (10-2) versus LSU (9-3) would seem like a premier bowl matchup. However, despite both teams’ lofty records, the reality is that neither of these teams were serious factors in their respective conference races. Combined, they were 0-4 against BCS conference foes and more interestingly, their offenses generated just 8.8 points per game in those matchups. Essentially, against quality opposition, both of these offenses shut down. There are also two very simple, yet powerful, trends that point to this one staying under the total of 44. Head coach Joe Paterno and Penn State are 92-69 going UNDER the total since 1992. Finally, if you would’ve blindly bet the UNDER on all Penn State and LSU games this year, you’d have some extra holiday spending money (15-7, +7.3 Units). I’ll call for that trend to continue.
A Penn State team that was out-classed vs. Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl last year brings a thin resume to these proceedings, with the non-conference schedule seeing them favored by at least -29.5 in every game, and the only real step-up affairs being home losses to Ohio State and Iowa. Yet they somehow have been given the early favorite’s role vs. a team that will cause them matchup problems. The issue for the Nittany Lions was a young OL that never developed, with the ground game reaching 200 yards only once in 11 lined games, and that group will have problems with an athletic L.S.U. defensive front. For the Tigers the issues were not talent but consistency, perhaps what we are going to have to expect from a Les Miles team, though he has beaten the spread by a stunning 122 points in going 4-0 ATS in his bowl games. The biggest edge of all here might be the battle for field position, with L.S.U. bringing a punt unit that is 14th in net punting, and a return unit keyed by Trindon Holliday that led the nation at 18.6. Meanwhile Penn State was 106th and 107th in those same categories. The 10-2 Nittany Lions were considered for a BCS bowl bid but eventually had to settle for the Capital One Bowl. They may be a little disappointed to have not have received that opportunity. However, the fact remains that this Penn State club has zero wins against a top-25 team this season. While the Tigers struggled at times this season with injuries at running back and suspect quarterback play, LSU is loaded with talent between the hedges. They played Alabama and Florida very tough despite losing both games. They took a 15-10 lead into the 4th quarter at Alabama before the Tide scored 14 unanswered points to pull that game out. Against the Gators, the Tigers were in a 10-3 dogfight midway through the 4th quarter before Florida knocked in a field goal to win 13-3. LSU is not as good as those two teams but this team will definitely improve with the month of preparation they had for this bowl game. Coach Les Miles takes very seriously the opportunity to make significant strides with his team during this time off. He is 4-0 in bowl games at LSU with an average winning margin of just over four-touchdowns. Look for Miles to have addressed his running back problems. The top-three running backs on the depth chart were lost to injury this season. And while there was hope that Charles Scott would be able to return for this game, he is now listed as doubtful with his collarbone. But Miles has had plenty of time to make adjustments and there are options on the roster who played in these three players absence. In particular, look for kick return specialist, Trindon Holliday, to become even more involved with the month of practice time. He may very well be the fastest player in college football. QB Jordan Jefferson improved his play as the season went on. In his last five games, he threw 9 TD passes to just three interceptions. The sophomore should definitely be even better with another month of practice time with his coaches. Miles will have this team ready and will want to use this game as a bridge for next season. Penn State quarterback, Daryll Clark, often wilts in the pressure of big games (as he did against Ohio State and Iowa). He threw ten interceptions this season and has thrown seven interceptions in his four career losses at Penn State. LSU has an outstanding defense as they rank 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 16 PPG. Penn State typically plays a weak non-conference schedule which is probably a by-product of their previous days as an independent outside the Big 10. But this lack of a challenging schedule is telling. The Nittany Lions have failed to cover in their last four non-conference games while LSU has covered 15 of their last 21 games played outside of the SEC -- producing our specific 19-6 ATS combined winning angle. The rigors of SEC play seem to better prepare LSU when they then go outside the conference to compete. Lastly, Penn State managed to average 7.76 yards per play in their 42-14 win over Michigan State -- but this places them in a empirical play-against angle that has been 77% effective over the last ten seasons. Teams that average 390-440 YPG (Penn State averages 412.5) coming off a game where they totaled more than 7.25 yards per play, who now play a team that averages 280-330 YPG (LSU totals 309.8 YPG), have then gone on to fail to cover the spread in 37 of 48 situations. LSU will raise their level of play once again for this bowl game against an overrated Penn State team.
2* LSU/PSU UNDER 43 (3* if you got it at UNDER 44 when it first came out as I did)
With as much success as the two programs have had recently, it’s hard to believe that Ohio State is making its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1997 and Oregon since ’95. The Big Ten has lost the L3 games in this series to the Pac 10, part of an overall run of dominance by the latter in head-to-head bowl play. Both teams boast 10-2 records, but it will be a contrast of styles in Pasadena. The Buckeyes lean on their defense, 12.2 points per game allowed. Oregon prefers to outscore teams, 37.7 points per game. Ohio State is looking to snap a three-game bowl losing streak, while the Ducks have won their last two. Oregon head coach Chip Kelly’s team is a 3.5- point favorite, but underdogs have covered eight of these teams’ L10 bowl games.
The Big Ten’s struggles in the Rose Bowl are well documented, no wins in Pasadena since Wisconsin’s 2000 triumph. However, it’s also true that the only Pac-10 team to win the Rose Bowl since 2001 was USC and Ohio State actually won its last Rose Bowl bid (20-17 over Arizona State in 1997). Oregon features a dynamic spread offense led by quarterback Jeremiah Masoli (15 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing touchdowns) and running back LeMichael James (1,476 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns). Oregon’s offense topped 40 points in seven of its last nine games. However, Ohio State is capable of neutralizing this attack with its staunch run defense, which allowed 83.0 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry. More impressively, Ohio State’s defense shut out three opponents and surrendered 14 points or fewer in eight of its last 12 games. Look for head coach Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes to slow down the Duck attack and possibly reverse history here.
This game is an interesting contrast of styles. It would be easy to look at Oregon's 47-20 win over a USC team that won in Columbus back in September and make the call to lay the short number with the Ducks, but betting is not supposed to be that easy. This has clearly been a bad bowl season for the Pac 10 with Oregon State, California and Arizona all getting blown out in embarrassing fashion, missing the spread by a collossal 70 points. If you want to look at early season results, how about Oregon's 19-8 loss at Boise in the opener? It was the only time all season that the Ducks were held under 24 points all season and just the 2nd time they were held below 30 points. Ohio State brings a great defense to Pasadena. They didn't allow a single opponent to score more than 27 all year and that was in the opener against the difficult to prepare for Navy triple option. They had three shutouts and seven opponents were held to 18 points or less in total. Jim Tressel, who did win a National Title in 2003, has to return to his winning ways in bowl games, no? East vs. West. Power vs. Speed. Defense vs. Offense. Both teams deserve to be here. Led by QB Jeremiah Masoli and a potent offense the Ducks recoved from a loss at Boise State in their opener and finished the year on a 10-1 run. They averaged 37.7 points, 32.2 on the road. The Buckeyes didn't score quite as many. They weren't as far behind as you might think though. Ohio State averaged 29.2, 26.8 on the road. Like Masoli, the Buckeyes have a dual threat QB. Terrelle Pryor completed 55.8 percent of his passes for 1,828 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also rushed for a team-high 707 yards, adding seven more touchdowns. Its on the other side of the ball that the real advantage lies. The Ducks come in allowing 23.6 points per game. That number climbs to 28 on the road. They allowed 382.6 yards in those games. The Buckeyes come in allowing only 12.2 points and 262.5 yards per game. Unlike Oregon, Ohio State actually played better defense away from home. On the road, they allowed 11.4 points and 261.8 yards. That's nearly 17 points and 120+ yards less that the Buckeyes allowed on the road, than the Ducks. Checking out some stats shows that the Ducks were 2-3 ATS as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. That's nothing new for Oregon. The Ducks are just 18-34-3 ATS the last 55 times they were favored in that range. With a great defense every season, the Buckeyes are generally tough in the underdog role. They were underdogs in the Fiesta Bowl last year and easily covered, losing by three vs. Texas. This year, they've been underdogs twice. They covered vs. USC - losing by three in a game they should have won. More recently, they beat Penn State outright. Ohio State has covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games and they have also won 16 of the last 19 games coming off an UNDER the total. Ohio State has won 16 of the last 19 games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in their last game and they are only allowing an average of 12 points a game on defense this season.
6* Ohio State Buckeyes +4½
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Rose Bowl
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, CA
Jan. 1, 2010
5:00 PM EST - ABC
Ohio State(8) vs Oregon(7)
With as much success as the two programs have had recently, it’s hard to believe that Ohio State is making its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1997 and Oregon since ’95. The Big Ten has lost the L3 games in this series to the Pac 10, part of an overall run of dominance by the latter in head-to-head bowl play. Both teams boast 10-2 records, but it will be a contrast of styles in Pasadena. The Buckeyes lean on their defense, 12.2 points per game allowed. Oregon prefers to outscore teams, 37.7 points per game. Ohio State is looking to snap a three-game bowl losing streak, while the Ducks have won their last two. Oregon head coach Chip Kelly’s team is a 3.5- point favorite, but underdogs have covered eight of these teams’ L10 bowl games.
The Big Ten’s struggles in the Rose Bowl are well documented, no wins in Pasadena since Wisconsin’s 2000 triumph. However, it’s also true that the only Pac-10 team to win the Rose Bowl since 2001 was USC and Ohio State actually won its last Rose Bowl bid (20-17 over Arizona State in 1997). Oregon features a dynamic spread offense led by quarterback Jeremiah Masoli (15 passing touchdowns, 12 rushing touchdowns) and running back LeMichael James (1,476 rushing yards, 14 touchdowns). Oregon’s offense topped 40 points in seven of its last nine games. However, Ohio State is capable of neutralizing this attack with its staunch run defense, which allowed 83.0 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry. More impressively, Ohio State’s defense shut out three opponents and surrendered 14 points or fewer in eight of its last 12 games. Look for head coach Jim Tressel’s Buckeyes to slow down the Duck attack and possibly reverse history here.
This game is an interesting contrast of styles. It would be easy to look at Oregon's 47-20 win over a USC team that won in Columbus back in September and make the call to lay the short number with the Ducks, but betting is not supposed to be that easy. This has clearly been a bad bowl season for the Pac 10 with Oregon State, California and Arizona all getting blown out in embarrassing fashion, missing the spread by a collossal 70 points. If you want to look at early season results, how about Oregon's 19-8 loss at Boise in the opener? It was the only time all season that the Ducks were held under 24 points all season and just the 2nd time they were held below 30 points. Ohio State brings a great defense to Pasadena. They didn't allow a single opponent to score more than 27 all year and that was in the opener against the difficult to prepare for Navy triple option. They had three shutouts and seven opponents were held to 18 points or less in total. Jim Tressel, who did win a National Title in 2003, has to return to his winning ways in bowl games, no? East vs. West. Power vs. Speed. Defense vs. Offense. Both teams deserve to be here. Led by QB Jeremiah Masoli and a potent offense the Ducks recoved from a loss at Boise State in their opener and finished the year on a 10-1 run. They averaged 37.7 points, 32.2 on the road. The Buckeyes didn't score quite as many. They weren't as far behind as you might think though. Ohio State averaged 29.2, 26.8 on the road. Like Masoli, the Buckeyes have a dual threat QB. Terrelle Pryor completed 55.8 percent of his passes for 1,828 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also rushed for a team-high 707 yards, adding seven more touchdowns. Its on the other side of the ball that the real advantage lies. The Ducks come in allowing 23.6 points per game. That number climbs to 28 on the road. They allowed 382.6 yards in those games. The Buckeyes come in allowing only 12.2 points and 262.5 yards per game. Unlike Oregon, Ohio State actually played better defense away from home. On the road, they allowed 11.4 points and 261.8 yards. That's nearly 17 points and 120+ yards less that the Buckeyes allowed on the road, than the Ducks. Checking out some stats shows that the Ducks were 2-3 ATS as favorites in the -3.5 to -10 range. That's nothing new for Oregon. The Ducks are just 18-34-3 ATS the last 55 times they were favored in that range. With a great defense every season, the Buckeyes are generally tough in the underdog role. They were underdogs in the Fiesta Bowl last year and easily covered, losing by three vs. Texas. This year, they've been underdogs twice. They covered vs. USC - losing by three in a game they should have won. More recently, they beat Penn State outright. Ohio State has covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games and they have also won 16 of the last 19 games coming off an UNDER the total. Ohio State has won 16 of the last 19 games after allowing 100 or less rushing yards in their last game and they are only allowing an average of 12 points a game on defense this season.
Florida had bigger plans, but had to "settle" for a Sugar Bowl date with unbeaten Cincinnati. With two national titles in three years, anything but is a disappointment and one of the primary storylines will be Florida’s motivation after the SEC title game loss. Of course, it is the last game in one of the great college careers in history, that of Tim Tebow, and he surely wants to go out on a high note. The Gators boast a 9-2 ATS mark when rested under head coach Urban Meyer, plus a 15-4 ATS record in non-conference play. Cincinnati is 12-0 despite allowing 36.5 points per game in its L4 contests. The Bearcats hope to pull off the second straight mammoth Sugar Bowl upset, but will do so without coach Brian Kelly, who left for Notre Dame.
Tebow is a winner, not much more needs to be said. Don’t let the anti-Tebow sentiment that flows throughout the country blind you. There is no denying he will go down as one of the most complete all-around leaders ever to play the college game. And Meyer, he’s no slouch, either, with a 16-3 ATS record (+12.7 Units) versus good teams, outscoring opponents by 10-plus points per game on the season as the head coach of FLORIDA. The average score was FLORIDA 30.2, OPPONENT 18.5. Without Kelly, out went any chance of a bowl victory for the Bearcats. Tebow will dominate one final time.
A lot going on in this game. First, Cincinnati Head Coach Brian Kelly took off for Notre Dame and I think this is a HUGE loss for Cincinnati. Then you have the Urban Meyer deal where he was going to step down as Head Coach and then came back and stated he was just going to take an extended leave of absence. Tim Tebow will be playing his final game as a Florida Gator and he will do everything in his power to go out a HUGE winner here tonight. Florida is 17-5 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. Florida is 25-12 ATS last 3 years in all games. Florida is 5-1 ATS last 3 years when playing with 2 weeks or more rest. Florida is 9-2 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Florida is scoring 34.7 points per game overall while allowing only 11.5 points per game overall this season. Psychological factors play a major role here. For Florida this is the first game without championship implications since a loss to L.S.U. in game #6 of the 2007 season, and note that in the only bowl game without the title on the line the last three seasons the Gators lost outright as an 11-point favorite vs. Michigan. But instead of an anti-climax, does the final game for Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow actually mean just as much as if the BCS trophy was on the line? Or does the departure of Meyer actually send a shock wave through the program that takes the players off of their game, especially with DC Charlie Strong also off to Louisville? Meanwhile for the Bearcats there is that notion of being left at the altar after Brian Kelly left for Notre Dame, a very rare occurrence for a team that is 12-0. And interim coach Jeff Quinn has already taken the Buffalo job, which can create distractions for him. Like the Tebow issue, it can also cut both ways – they can come out disappointed from Kelly’s departure, or can play with a chip on their shoulder to show that they can win without him. For our purposes lets assume that the emotional issues are not there, and that it just comes down to football. And if that is the case we have an underdog that is brilliant in one particular aspect of the game, with the Bearcat passing attack truly special, but one lacking in too many areas. The Cincinnati defense struggled throughout the season but absolutely came apart down the stretch, allowing 146 points and 1,697 yards over the last four games, generating only two turnovers in 297 snaps. That group will be hard-pressed to make any stops vs. a Gator offense that can physically bash them at the point of attack, and one that takes care of the ball so well that the defense will not be given many breaks to work with. I think this spread is this high for a reason. When you hear Florida's players talk about Urban Meyer, they absolutely love this guy. This very well could be Meyer's last game as Florida's head coach, and while I don't think it will be, I expect the Gators to treat it that way by sending out their leader with a bang. And then there's that Tim Tebow guy who MUST end his storied career on a winning note. While Florida is disappointed that it is not playing in the BCS championship game, it won't fail to take this opportunity to show the undefeated Bearcats how overrated they are. "It's full speed ahead. We're going to do everything possible to win this game," Meyer said. The fact that Meyer is back for this game gives his team a big lift while the Bearcats suffer with Brian Kelly walking away. The key here is how good Florida is defensively, doing it against, perhaps, the best conference in the country. The difference between these teams is defense. The Bearcats will not be able to stop the Gators on offense. The Gators will show the Bearcats a speedy defense they have not seen this year. The Bearcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The Gators are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Tim Tebow will make sure he goes out a winner and the Bearcats will get blown out in the Sugar Bowl.
10* Florida Gators -12
0
Sugar Bowl
Louisiana Superdome
New Orleans, LA
Jan. 1, 2010
8:30 PM EST - FOX
Cincinnati(3) vs Florida(5)
Florida had bigger plans, but had to "settle" for a Sugar Bowl date with unbeaten Cincinnati. With two national titles in three years, anything but is a disappointment and one of the primary storylines will be Florida’s motivation after the SEC title game loss. Of course, it is the last game in one of the great college careers in history, that of Tim Tebow, and he surely wants to go out on a high note. The Gators boast a 9-2 ATS mark when rested under head coach Urban Meyer, plus a 15-4 ATS record in non-conference play. Cincinnati is 12-0 despite allowing 36.5 points per game in its L4 contests. The Bearcats hope to pull off the second straight mammoth Sugar Bowl upset, but will do so without coach Brian Kelly, who left for Notre Dame.
Tebow is a winner, not much more needs to be said. Don’t let the anti-Tebow sentiment that flows throughout the country blind you. There is no denying he will go down as one of the most complete all-around leaders ever to play the college game. And Meyer, he’s no slouch, either, with a 16-3 ATS record (+12.7 Units) versus good teams, outscoring opponents by 10-plus points per game on the season as the head coach of FLORIDA. The average score was FLORIDA 30.2, OPPONENT 18.5. Without Kelly, out went any chance of a bowl victory for the Bearcats. Tebow will dominate one final time.
A lot going on in this game. First, Cincinnati Head Coach Brian Kelly took off for Notre Dame and I think this is a HUGE loss for Cincinnati. Then you have the Urban Meyer deal where he was going to step down as Head Coach and then came back and stated he was just going to take an extended leave of absence. Tim Tebow will be playing his final game as a Florida Gator and he will do everything in his power to go out a HUGE winner here tonight. Florida is 17-5 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a winning record. Florida is 25-12 ATS last 3 years in all games. Florida is 5-1 ATS last 3 years when playing with 2 weeks or more rest. Florida is 9-2 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Florida is scoring 34.7 points per game overall while allowing only 11.5 points per game overall this season. Psychological factors play a major role here. For Florida this is the first game without championship implications since a loss to L.S.U. in game #6 of the 2007 season, and note that in the only bowl game without the title on the line the last three seasons the Gators lost outright as an 11-point favorite vs. Michigan. But instead of an anti-climax, does the final game for Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow actually mean just as much as if the BCS trophy was on the line? Or does the departure of Meyer actually send a shock wave through the program that takes the players off of their game, especially with DC Charlie Strong also off to Louisville? Meanwhile for the Bearcats there is that notion of being left at the altar after Brian Kelly left for Notre Dame, a very rare occurrence for a team that is 12-0. And interim coach Jeff Quinn has already taken the Buffalo job, which can create distractions for him. Like the Tebow issue, it can also cut both ways – they can come out disappointed from Kelly’s departure, or can play with a chip on their shoulder to show that they can win without him. For our purposes lets assume that the emotional issues are not there, and that it just comes down to football. And if that is the case we have an underdog that is brilliant in one particular aspect of the game, with the Bearcat passing attack truly special, but one lacking in too many areas. The Cincinnati defense struggled throughout the season but absolutely came apart down the stretch, allowing 146 points and 1,697 yards over the last four games, generating only two turnovers in 297 snaps. That group will be hard-pressed to make any stops vs. a Gator offense that can physically bash them at the point of attack, and one that takes care of the ball so well that the defense will not be given many breaks to work with. I think this spread is this high for a reason. When you hear Florida's players talk about Urban Meyer, they absolutely love this guy. This very well could be Meyer's last game as Florida's head coach, and while I don't think it will be, I expect the Gators to treat it that way by sending out their leader with a bang. And then there's that Tim Tebow guy who MUST end his storied career on a winning note. While Florida is disappointed that it is not playing in the BCS championship game, it won't fail to take this opportunity to show the undefeated Bearcats how overrated they are. "It's full speed ahead. We're going to do everything possible to win this game," Meyer said. The fact that Meyer is back for this game gives his team a big lift while the Bearcats suffer with Brian Kelly walking away. The key here is how good Florida is defensively, doing it against, perhaps, the best conference in the country. The difference between these teams is defense. The Bearcats will not be able to stop the Gators on offense. The Gators will show the Bearcats a speedy defense they have not seen this year. The Bearcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The Gators are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Tim Tebow will make sure he goes out a winner and the Bearcats will get blown out in the Sugar Bowl.
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