*****2009 Bowl Games Thread including info, write-ups and articles*****

RFK Stadium

Washington, DC

Dec. 29, 2009

4:00 PM EST - ESPN

Temple had to wait a week or so longer than every other bowl team to find out its eventual opponent. It remains to be seen whether or not UCLA was worth the wait. Of course, when you haven’t been to a bowl game in 31 years, like the Owls, waiting an extra week should just be a minor inconvenience. With that in mind, Temple, which finished 9-3 SU and 8-3 ATS in 2009, should be highly motivated to take on the Bruins. Head coach Al Golden’s team comes in with a 5-1 ATS mark in road games. UCLA is a familiar bowl team, having gone 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS in bowl games since 1994, including 2-7 ATS as a favorite. In addition to that, the Bruins face the challenge of having to trek cross-country from Los Angeles to Washington, DC for this.

As tough as the scheduling circumstances in this game were for UCLA, having to wait for the conclusion of the Army-Navy game, and as much as the Bruins will have had to travel and as poorly as the Pac-10 has done as a big favorite in bowl games, I can’t get past one simple thought: This is a Pac-10 team taking on a MAC club. There will be all kinds of talk about motivation of Temple, and lack thereof on the side of UCLA, but when it comes down to it, the Bruins’ players will be bigger, stronger, and faster and thus will win rather easily. Look for a double-digit victory by UCLA.

8* UCLA Bruins -4

Citrus Bowl Stadium

Orlando, FL

Dec. 29, 2009

8:00 PM EST - ESPN

Wisconsin still has not-so-distant and not-so-pleasant memories of its last trip to the Champs Sports Bowl. That came last December when the Badgers were spanked 42-13 by Florida State. For 2009, Miami, Fla. is the opponent, and though head coach Bret Bielema’s team is two games better than it was a year ago, the Hurricanes still present an imposing challenge. Miami is a three- point favorite and comes in sharing the exact same 9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS record as Wisconsin, having played one of the country’s tougher schedules featuring eight bowl teams (5-3 SU). With the win last year, the ACC has now built a six-game winning streak in this bowl series, however, both of these teams have been involved in underdog-dominated bowl games of late.

Some great offensive play by both teams will lead to a high-scoring matchup in this bowl game. Wisconsin will move the ball more on the ground and Miami will move it through the air, but rest assured, both will move it. There are several big-name offensive players that will be on display. John Clay has rushed for 1,396 yards and 16 touchdowns this year. Miami has six different receivers with more than 200 yards each, and quarterback Jacory Harris has really blossomed this year. The Badgers will have their hands full dealing with him. However, when they have the ball, don’t look past the fact that they scored almost 40 points per game in their final four contests. With Miami averaging 31.7 PPG overall, added to Wisconsin’s 32.7 PPG game, look for the final score to surpass the 60-point mark.

*****BIG PLAY ALERT*****

20* Wisconsin/Miami OVER 56

Bronco Stadium

Boise, ID

Dec. 30, 2009

4:00 PM EST - ESPN

It’s been 11 years since Idaho played in a bowl game, and the Vandals return to the scene of the crime, looking to repeat their 1998 Humanitarian Bowl win. In that game, Idaho, a 17.5-point dog, pulled off the biggest upset in a bowl game since at least ‘92, beating Southern Miss, 42-35. This year’s team is 7-5, and boasts the nation’s No. 3-ranked passing attack in yards per attempt, at 9.5. The Vandals had what seemed to be two different seasons though, going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their first seven games and 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their L5. The opponent is Bowling Green, which shares the same 7-5 mark, but comes in on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak. The Falcons are 4-1 in their L5 bowl games, but lost last year 63-7.

Bowling Green heads west to face Idaho in the Humanitarian Bowl. Unless charity is offered from Idaho, this bowl season, the game looks like an oddsmaker’s mistake. Only a merciful Idaho team will keep this game from becoming a complete blowout. The favorite in MAC bowl games are 22-2 SU and 19-5 ATS. The Vandals at a pickem is a gift from the oddsmakers. Take Idaho to the bank.

15* Idaho Vandals pk

Qualcomm Stadium

San Diego, CA

Dec. 30, 2009

8:00 PM EST - ESPN

Nebraska was a foot away from an upset of Texas and a BCS berth in the Big 12 title game. Instead, the Longhorns’ winning field goal snuck inside the upright. Now the Cornhuskers must settle for the Holiday Bowl in San Diego, taking on Arizona. Of course, the Wildcats were seconds away from upsetting Oregon a few weeks back, which could have meant a Rose Bowl berth. In that regard, this could be the disappointment bowl of 2009. Nebraska is 9-4, Arizona is 8-4, but it is the Pac-10 rep that is the one-point favorite, which could be big as the chalk has won the last three games in this bowl series, both SU and ATS. The ‘Huskers are 0-3 all-time vs. the Pac-10 in bowl games. Arizona is on a three-game bowl win streak.

At first glance, having these two defensive teams should mean an automatic Under. In the words of Lee Corso, "Not so fast my friend". True, both Arizona and Nebraska are in the Top 20 nationally in defense, but this is the Holiday Bowl. Only once since 1991 has the total score been less than the current line of 40 points. In these less important bowls, teams practice offense, trying to find ways to improve, especially if the majority of skill position players are underclassmen, which is the case for both squads. Arizona coach Mike Stoops has shown proclivity towards letting it fly when something is at stake, thus this game reaching 45 total points will not come as a surprise, despite numbers to the contrary. Play the Over.

10* Nebraska/Arizona OVER 40

Amon Carter Stadium

Fort Worth, TX

Dec. 31, 2009

12:00 PM EST - ESPN

No, it isn’t Groundhog Day, but it might feel like it to Air Force and Houston, opponents in the Armed Forces Bowl for the second straight season. The Cougars won last year, 34-28, covering the -5.5 number on a late field goal. They are a bit lighter favorite for the 2009 game, despite having won three more games, while averaging 43.9 points per game and a nation’s-best 581.1 yards per game on offense. At 10-3 SU and 8-4 ATS, Houston is looking to culminate its best season since winning 11 games in 1979. Air Force was 7-5 in the regular season with just a 1-5 record vs. bowl teams. The Falcons rushed for 273.6 YPG this season, fourth nationally, and will look to take advantage of a Cougars defense that allowed 5.0 yards per rush.

The nation’s top passing team will be facing the nation’s best pass defense in this rematch bowl game. Houston has averaged a whopping 581.1 yards per game this season. That will be the biggest difference here, as evidenced by this very profound Trend: AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play over the last three seasons. The average score was AIR FORCE 21.0, OPPONENT 34.2. This has been a special season for Houston overall, and having just locked up coach Kevin Sumlin to a contract extension, I don’t expect anything but a focused effort on the Cougars’ part. Look for Houston to win by at least a touchdown, taking care of business a little more convincingly than last year.

3* Houston Cougars -4

Sun Bowl Stadium

El Paso, TX

Dec. 31, 2009

2:00 PM EST - CBS

The Sun Bowl is looking for a better showing than the 3-0 display put on a year ago, as Stanford and Oklahoma will do battle in El Paso. This bowl series had typically been an exciting one, dominated by underdogs, 11-1-1 ATS prior to the 2008 game. The Pac-10 has also won five straight games. All of this would seem to bode well for Stanford, which comes in as a heavy nine-point dog to Oklahoma. The Cardinal, who will be without starting quarterback Andrew Luck, were 8-4 this season to earn their first bowl bid since ’01. Oklahoma was 7-5, but quite possibly the nation’s most inconsistent team. The Sooners have lost five of their L6 bowl games, both SU and ATS, but the one win was their only non-BCS game in that span.

Once again the Sun Bowl gods have shined the light upon college bowl bettors. The Cardinal will walk into Sun Bowl stadium as a 9.5-point underdog with a very good chance of winning this game outright. Add Jim Harbaugh’s 6-0 ATS record versus excellent defensive teams and this game should come down to the wire. Big 12 favorites are just 15-37 in bowl games; Oklahoma is 1-5 on the road this season. Lastly Pac-10 teams are 13-1 ATS as an underdog when the spread is greater than 5.5 points. The Sun gods must be crazy, or maybe just the oddsmakers.

2* Stanford Cardinals +10

Reliant Stadium

Houston, TX

Dec. 31, 2009

3:00 PM EST - ESPN

Navy has always been a very competitive team in bowl games, but comes into this year’s Texas Bowl looking to snap a three game postseason losing streak. The Midshipmen have proven a predictable team when it comes to bowl games of late, going 4-1 ATS and 5-0 Over the total in their L5. The opponent for this year’s contest is Missouri, which rallied to an 8-4 finish by winning four of its final five games, topping the 400-yard mark each time. The Tigers are a heavy favorite, which could prove important since the chalk is 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in the L8 installments of this game, including a 3-0-1 ATS record with lines of 6.5 points or more. Navy finished 9-4 after beating Army in the season finale.

What makes Navy such a strong wager as an underdog in bowl games, besides its discipline and passion for going wire-to-wire? To me, it’s the fact that the Middies play an offense that is so rare in the college ranks anymore, and that makes it tough for opponents to prepare for, even with the two- or three-week layoff. How do you simulate the Midshipmen’s effectiveness in such a short period of time when they have been perfecting it for years? As such, this is a difficult spot for Missouri, which already was struggling defensively, having allowed 29.4 points per game in its final seven. The Tigers were also just 2-6 ATS down the stretch. They may be bigger, stronger, and more athletic, but I question their motivation and expect Navy quarterback Ricky Dobbs to give them fits.

5* Navy Midshipmen +7

Sun Devil Stadium

Tempe, AZ

Dec. 31, 2009

6:00 PM EST - NFLN

Minnesota is one of a handful of teams playing in the same bowl game that it did a year ago. In fact, the Golden Gophers have become quite familiar with the Phoenix area recently, having accepted Insight Bowl bids in three of the L4 years. Unfortunately, they are 0-2 in the previous games as they take on Iowa State. This will be the first of the three games in which Minnesota is favored, despite having gone just 6-6 in the regular season. Of course, Iowa State shares that same mark and is in a bowl game for the first time since 2005. The Cyclones are looking to extend a three game winning streak by the Big 12 in this bowl series, one that has been high scoring and 13-3-1 since 1992.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers will square off against the Iowa State Cyclones in Tempe, AZ. The Golden Gophers will need to generate more than their season average of 13.0 points per game on the road if they want to keep this game close. Even if Minnesota could improve this game looks to be an Iowa State upset. Bowl games pitting the Big 12 versus the Big Ten have been dominated by the underdog, as that team owns a 14-7 ATS record. Iowa State should have no problem winning this game outright. Getting the 2.5 points is the icing on the cake.

10* Iowa State Cyclones +2½

Georgia Dome

Atlanta, GA

Dec. 31, 2009

7:00 PM EST - ESPN

The Volunteers and Hokies will send off 2009 in the last college football game of the calendar year, the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Virginia Tech is a mid-range favorite after finishing 9-3 and winning its L4 games both SU and ATS, while allowing just 8.8 points per game. The Hokies haven’t been the best bowl team of late, going just 3-5 SU and ATS in their L8, including a loss to Georgia in this game back in 2006. Tennessee shares that same bowl record in its L8 games and has gone UNDER the total in five straight bowl contests, including two times in what was called the Peach Bowl. It also lost both of those games. The Vols are looking to extend a streak of four straight upset wins by SEC teams in this bowl series.

One of my favorite underdog plays this season was Tennessee, which sported a 3-0 ATS record in that spot until injuries finally caught up to the defense at Ole Miss. It will be an underdog once again. However, I’m going the other way and taking Virginia Tech. The Hokies lost two games in which they were favored and being a road favorite against ACC champion Georgia Tech looks like a bad number today. The Hokies have won, and covered, four in a row against lesser competition and Tennessee, with its five losses, has plenty of warts. This isn’t your traditional Virginia Tech defense. Nonetheless, it feeds on momentum and head coach Frank Beamer’s boys are 12-3 ATS after allowing 17 points or fewer in four straight games. Go with the Hokies by double digits.