Papa John’s Bowl
Legion Field
Birmingham, AL
Jan. 2, 2010
2:00 PM EST - ESPN
Connecticut vs South Carolina
Connecticut was the nation’s best spread-covering team in 2009, going 10-2 against the number, including 6-0 ATS as an underdog. Backers of the Huskies in the Papa John’s Bowl will look to go to the well one more time, as UConn plays as a 4.5-point underdog to South Carolina. Both teams boast 7-5 records, with the Gamecocks having played one of the toughest schedules in the country, loaded with eight eventual bowl teams. They were 3-5 SU but 5-3 ATS in those games. Strangely, this is just the fourth time this season that head coach Steve Spurrier’s team will have played as favorites. South Carolina is 22-3 SU and 15-9 ATS as chalk in his tenure, including 1-1 in bowl games. For the Huskies, this is a fourth-ever bowl game and they are 2-1 SU and ATS prior.
If you believe in the old saying "a trend is your friend," then there’s only one way to go here. UConn was a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog in 2009. Picked to finished near the bottom of the Big East standings, head coach Randy Edsall’s crew overachieved on its way to a third consecutive bowl game. Spurrier and South Carolina continued their recent trend of fading down the stretch, losing four of their last six to ruin a 5-1 start. In fact, the Gamecocks are 0-6 ATS on the road in the second half of the season over the last three years, including an average loss of 37-17. There really isn’t a stand-out player of note on either of these teams and statistically, both are ordinary on both sides of the ball. Factoring all that in, the best play is to follow the trend and take the points.
Absolutely love UConn in the role of underdog today, catching too many points from a very unpredictable South Carolina team today. They've covered all 6 times they've been listed as the pup so far this year and came close to winning two of the four they lost SU. In fact, if you look at their season, they never lost a game by more than four points. Yeah, imagine that... five losses and not a single one by more than 4 points. Two, two-point losses (to North Carolina and Cincy), a three-point loss to Pittsburgh and two four-point losses to West Virginia and Rutgers. In every one of those losses, with the exception of the Rutgers game, UConn covered the number because they were listed as the underdog. For whatever reason, vs. the Scarlet Knights they were the favorite and failed to even win the game. They ended the season with three straight SU wins over South Florida, Syracuse and Notre Dame by balancing their offense between the pass and the run. Zach Frazer has done a remarkable job at QB when Cody Endres was lost with a season-ending injury. And who could forget Andre Dixon scoring TDs at will on the ground, not to mention the change-of-pace back in Jordan Todman. UConn seems to play to the level of their competition, whether bad or good, and they just don't lose without a fight. UConn is the best ATS team in the country (10-2) and it doesn't seem to matter the conference in which they are playing. Steve Spurrier’s squad jumped out to a 5-1 start before losing four of its last six. Also, South Carolina covered in its first four games, then went in a 1-4 ATS funk in lined games before cashing in its final two. This is the first meeting between these schools. UConn throttled Buffalo 38-20 as a seven-point favorite in last year’s International Bowl, improving to 2-1 SU and ATS in bowl games under coach Randy Edsall. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks were completely non-competitive in last year’s 31-10 Outback Bowl loss to Iowa as a seven-point favorite, dropping to 4-10 SU all-time in bowl games and 1-2 SU and ATS in three bowls under Spurrier. The Ol’ Ball Coach is a mediocre 7-8 SU and ATS when patrolling the sidelines in the postseason. The Big East is a perfect 3-0 all-time in the PapaJohns.com Bowl, but has failed to cash in the last two.UConn’s offense turned it up a notch over the final seven weeks of the season, scoring at least 24 points in all seven games, including averaging 40.8 ppg in the last four. For the season, the Huskies produced nearly 400 total ypg, including 172.8 rushing ypg. Prior to the 34-point outburst in the season finale against Clemson, the South Carolina offense tallied a total of 63 points in its previous five games (12.6 ppg), losing four of the five. For the season, it managed just 21.8 ppg and 359.2 total ypg. Also, during the three-game losing streak that preceded the upset of Clemson, the ‘Cocks’ defense got torched for 29.3 ppg. Otherwise, they gave up 17.4 ppg in the other nine contests. South Carolina had the 12th best pass defense in the country, yielding just 167.7 ypg through the air. The Huskies had failed to cover in 14 straight lined games as a road underdog coming into this season, but they went 5-0 ATS as a road pup this year and they’ve cashed in six straight when catching points regardless of venue. UConn, which had the best regular-season pointspread mark in college football, is on additional ATS tears of 10-2 overall, 7-2 against winning teams, 35-17-1 in non-conference play and 5-1 after a SU win.
7* Connecticut Huskies +4
Cotton Bowl
Cotton Bowl
Dallas, TX
Jan. 2, 2010
2:00 PM EST - FOX
Mississippi vs Oklahoma State(19)
Ole Miss and Oklahoma State last met in the 2004 Cotton Bowl, with quarterback Eli Manning and the Rebels pulling out a 31-28 win in his finale. Another senior quarterback plays his last game for Ole Miss in the 2010 Classic in Jevan Snead. While his career hasn’t been as illustrious as Manning’s, the program has reached new heights in the national polls with him under center. The Rebels are 8-4 in 2009 and will be putting a seven-game, non-conference ATS winning streak on the line versus the Cowboys. They have also fared well in bowl games, 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their L8. Oklahoma State has the better record (9-3) versus a tougher schedule, yet plays as the three point underdog. It is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS as bowl game underdog.
If you were to tell me that you planned on taking every SEC team in their bowl games, I couldn’t possibly argue with the logic. After all, they are 19-7 SU and 18-7-1 ATS in the last four years. Now, I might point you specifically to this Cotton Bowl game, where Ole Miss is playing as a three-point favorite to Oklahoma State. I really don’t like what I saw from the Cowboys offensively down the stretch, as they really seemed affected by the loss of wide receiver Dez Bryant. After his suspension in early October, Oklahoma State averaged a pedestrian 25.8 points per game (39.0 prior). It was shut out in the season finale by Oklahoma. The Rebels have a history of playing well in bowl games and have covered seven straight non-conference tilts. They get it done, 27-20.
This game provides us with a unique situation because Oklahoma St is ranked #21 in the country yet they are underdogs to the Ole Miss Rebels and they are not ranked. The non-ranked favorite over a ranked team angles has been very profitable in the past when the favorite is bet on. The Cowboy offense has struggled in the last three outings just averaging 18 points a contest and Jevon Snead and the Rebels offense has been rolling right along. The Rebels are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and will lose another one in the Cotton Bowl. The SEC has dominated this annual January contest, winning five of the last six both SU and ATS. That includes the Eli Manning-led Rebels’ 31-28 win over Oklahoma State as a 2½-point chalk in the 2003 Cotton Bowl. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in each of the last 15 Cotton Bowls going back to 1994. Ole Miss scored 38 points or more five times and tallied 27 or more in eight of 13 games, finishing with the exact same scoring average as Oklahoma State (30.2 ppg). The Rebels defense was stout most of the year, yielding just 18.6 points and 319.3 total yards per outing, but 140.3 rushing ypg.4* Mississippi Rebels -3
Liberty Bowl
Memorial Stadium
Memphis, TN
Jan. 2, 2009
5:30 PM EST - ESPN
Arkansas vs East Carolina
East Carolina captured its second straight Conference USA title by beating Houston in the league championship game. The reward of that accomplishment…a date with a SEC foe in the Liberty Bowl. In last year’s game, East Carolina lost to Kentucky, playing as a three-point favorite. In the 2010 edition, the Pirates are a 7.5-point underdog to Arkansas, which could be big for bettors, as they are 22-10 ATS in the pup role under head coach Skip Holtz. His team comes into the game at 9-4 and played its best ball at the end, going 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its L7. The Razorbacks also played well down the stretch though, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five, while scoring 44.8 points per game. They have won just two of their L9 bowl games though and are 3-6 ATS.
Quarterback Ryan Mallet transferred from Michigan and needless to say, the move was a smashing success. Mallet led the Hogs’ explosive offense to some pretty impressive numbers, 6.8 yards per play and 37 points per game. If it wasn’t for a couple of gut-wrenching three-point road losses to Florida and LSU, Arkansas would have certainly been placed in a high-profile bowl. East Carolina, led by 20th-year senior Patrick Pinkney (just kidding, it only seems that way), won its last six conference games to capture a second consecutive C-USA title. The real question here is whether the Pirates’ average defense (allowing 22 points per game and 386 yards per game) can slow down the explosive Razorback attack. Most likely the answer is no and Arkansas will prevail in a shootout.
15* Arkansas Razorbacks -7
Alamo Bowl
Alamodome
San Antonio, TX
Jan. 2, 2010
9:00 PM EST - ESPN
Michigan State vs Texas Tech
The Alamo Bowl game has been one of the few lately that Big Ten fans can actually look forward to. Their teams are 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS in the L13 editions. Unfortunately, this is the last time for the immediate future that the conference will be in the game, with the Pac-10 stepping in. Big Ten teams boast a 20-9-1 ATS record in their L30 bowl games as an underdog of four points or more, often the case in this bowl series. For this year’s game, Michigan State (6- 6) is a seven-point underdog to Texas Tech, which finished 8-4. Ironically, it is the Spartans with the edge in several offensive categories, including pass yards per attempt. Tech has lost its L4 bowl games ATS and is 0-2 SU and ATS in its L2 Alamo Bowl appearances.
Sometimes analysis is right in front you and that makes breaking down a game simple. Texas Tech is the No. 2 passing team in the country and Michigan State is 103rd at stopping the pass. The Red Raiders are an ordinary 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS versus other bowl participants. However, the Spartans are 1-4 SU and woebegone 0-5 ATS taking on the five teams they played that have postseason appearances. The Michigan State roster is thinner since it played its last game due to suspensions, but rallying the troops doesn’t protect a squad that played poorly against better competition and one that can’t stop passing teams.
Mike Leach did great things here at Texas Tech. Not only did he turn the Red Raider offense into a perennial power but he also took Texas Tech to 10 straight bowl games. He also was the Big 12 Coach of the year last season and has the most wins in Texas Tech history. Unless you've been taking a vacation from ESPN, you know that Leach is no longer with the team. After allegedly mistreating a player, he was suspended. When he subsequently attempted to sue the university, he was released entirely. Will the Red Raiders be able to recover? I believe the answer is a resounding yes. Most of the players are supporting the decision and they'll be out to prove that it was them, not Leach, which made the program great. In terms of talent, there is little question that the Red Raiders are the stronger team, particularly with the Spartans playing without several key starters. In case you missed it, Michigan State will play this game without 11 players after they were suspended by coach Mark Dantonio for their roles in a dormitory brawl. Running back Glenn Winston and defensive back Roderick Jenrette were dismissed from the team while starters Chris L. Rucker - the team's top cover corner - and receivers B.J. Cunningham and Mark Dell are among those suspended. Those losses are far bigger than the loss of Leach. Cunningham and Dell are bit losses to the offense and losing Rucker really hurts a secondary that ranks 103rd in the country and allowed 29 touchdown passes while recording only five interceptions - tied for the fewest in the nation. The Red Raiders are off back to back wins, including a 41-13 win over Oklahoma. On the other hand, the Spartans lost their last game, 42-14 vs. Penn State, falling to just 6-6 on the season. With the Spartans at only 25-47 ATS the last 72 times they were coming off a conference loss, look for the Red Raiders to exploit their suspect secondary en route to a blowout victory. With so many skill players out for Michigan State, serving suspensions, this one is a no-brainer. Texas Tech will roll because the Spartans won't be able to keep up with the Red Raiders offensively. Michigan State is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in road games after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. The Red Raiders are 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
***************HUGE PLAY ALERT***************
25* Texas Tech Red Raiders -7
Natural - Thanks! I had seen it open up early at -7 but I wasnt smart enough to jump that early. I bought it from 8.5 to 7 and will also get in at 8. Im in for a few dimes so I remain optimisitic :-)
Continued great job on analysis and plays. Thank you!
Do you have NFL as well? (I realize would be in other thread)
HeyDog.....Good deal bro. I feel good about that game and am in for a pretty penny myself. I am up pretty well and hope this comes through for us. Hate to cut into my profit. And yes, I will be putting out some NFL plays in the morn. May not have write-ups for them. Just depends on how much sleep I get tonight. Got a lot of people coming over for the UFC fights tonight.
Bestuc4free.....no problem my friend! 
Established in 1995,
What's up my friend?! BOL to you the rest of this Bowl Season bud!!!
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