🏈🏈🏈 Fubah2's risky CFB bets

BALL state thumped  3 - 40

My BYU Cougars bet might be in jeopardy now where it looked safe before.......After KU took a 28 - 20 lead, BYU drove down the field looking to tie it and they tossed a fluky INT........Now LUCKY KU is driving.....and they are now -1800 ml favs to win

My Mighty DUCKS are now leading  with still time left in the 3rdQ

This spanking the DUCKS are giving the BUFFS, 42 - 0  will likely generate foolish knee-jerk reactions by rookie cappers who will assume, going forward,  the BUFFS suck and OREGON is a world-beater SuperPower....

WRONG perception to take on both counts!

Mountaineers was a lean of mine but I held off.....they lead 13 - 10  into the 4thQ and have a small edge in stats

Understandably they are now favs of -2.5  or  ml -160.......considering them....

ADDING LIBERTY -380

BYU Winner!

KU 38 -27

Looking ahead for future bets, I am assessing this game as an EDGE to BYU over KU on the road, regardless the score....because the play was even, the stats are almost identical......except LUCKY KANSAS benefitted by a fortuitous 22 yd scoop & score and then later another fortunate break for a 30 yd pick 6....

That's 14 freebies the KU  offense did NOT score in a game they won by 11.....

Taking nothing away from KANSAS!  But BYU is stronger than that score indicates.    This type of reasoning is a key to my capping regimen when looking forward to next games.    For example, BYU now might be UNDER valued for the next game slightly....and conversely, KU might be ever so slightly over valued in the lines....

We shall see.....

BOL with the rest of your bets today, fellas! 

At half, FLAMES are up 24 - 6

2 turnovers each

Liberty has 12 first downs to only 6

Liberty has 324 yds to only 135

Liberty has 4 long drives to only one

.....albeit with one extra possession.

My pregame leans were to Penn State, WAKE, Minnesota, Louisiana, Hoosiers, and IRISH, so I am hopeful to find a decent bet on any of these for a SU win.......maybe.....

Hoosiers at home no score but still heavy favs at -800

Louisiana at home up 7 - 0    now -450 ml

Minnesota on road, up 7 - 0  now -1000 ml fav!

WAKE losing

IRISH at home, no score yet....but pinned at their own 1 

Nittany guys at home up 3 - 0  and

Halftime..... WAZZU up 28 -14 and outplaying the Beavers on the stat sheet.

WSU has one extra possession but they gave up an extra turnover at the Beaver's 29....

They have marched the ball on long drives 5 times compared to just 2 for Beavers...

Leaning to an ingame live bet on WSU to win.... ML odds are -425.....but I wanna see how the BEAVERS come out the gate with the first drive of the 3Q and/or field position.....

If Ore.State comes out and moves the ball  SLOWLY downfield the moneyline of WAZZU will drop to a good spot for an in game bet, provided OSU doesn't score  LOL

WAZZU QB  Cam Ward is having himself a spectacular game:

19/20 for 293 yds in just the first HALF!!!

 Beavers just turned over the ball on downs on their own 34!  DUMB coaching mistake.....but WAZZU couldn't do anything with gift field position by missing a 51 yarder...... LUCKY BREAKS are now even, however, imo.....but so are the game stats heavily favoring WAZZU

Still 28 - 14

My LIBERTY FLAMES have lept out to an insurmountable  38 - 6 lead  with only 7  mins left....

WINNER!

As IRISH move in for a score with 9 mins left, odds are -125 IRISH

TOUCHDOWN.....odds kick up to -190 up 14 - 10........

Live bet:    IRISH -190

Oh-Ohh ....right after I bet it, sure enough OSU drives downfield in a hurry.....

HOOSIERS are a -16 pts home fav facing the weakass Akron ZIPS.

Score is only 14 - 10 because the awful ZIPS are outplayting the Hoosiers and driving downfield late 3rdQ

IRISH were somewhat fortunate to stuff a very good team TWICE, and take over the ball on downs....

But they aren't out of the woods yet!!

I figure IRISH must cross OSU 30  OR grind out 4  time consuming first downs to win it

And they failed to do that..... Oh-OHHH

OSU starts from their  35  needing a TD....... coin-flip says they will or won't.....UGH!   Irish blew a chance to ice the game.....THAT could cost them the game....

Comes down to a 4th & 7   are the refs going to decide it???

IRISH are getting lucky too though.....

Buckeyes QB missing open receivers..... 22 ticks left...... 4 downs

Oh for phucksakes....only a 3 man rush on 3rd down and goal from the 22 with 15 ticks left.....5 man pressure is what is causing all the problems for OSU

I think that defensive coaching mistake will cost the IRISH this game

WEEK 4 CFB, Sept 22-23

Loss Purdue +10.5 -210 (alt-lines @Bet365)  *BEST BET loss
W    CAVALIERS +13.5 -180 (alt-line)

W    OREGON -13 -270 (alt-lines @Bet365)  *BEST BET
W    VOLUNTEERS -13 -250                        *BEST BET
W    SYRACUSE -496                                  *BEST BET
W    SYRACUSE +2.5 -115 (live bet in 3Q)
W    SOONERS -650 (live bet early 1Q)              *BEST BET
W    LOUISVILLE -571                                *BEST BET
W    BYU Cougars +14.5 -200 (alt-lines)      *BEST BET
W    Liberty -380
Loss IRISH -190   (live bet, late up 14 - 10)

And that dumbass decision to allow the OSU QB to freely pick out an open receiver facing only a weak 3 man pass rush, cost them.....and me and others.......grrrrrr