2017 Record: 6-10
Bad record but 3 in a row hit so far and my goal is to somehow win another 4 in a row. Let's try it together.
This game is at the Palisades in Pennsylvania and will be played at 12pm EST.
What is the angle? It is this:
1. "The Ivy League has NEVER had a conference tournament before this year, therefore, players and coaches are unprepared for it."
It can never happen again.
This is the first year they've had this tournament. ALL years prior to resulted in the team with the best record in conference going to the NCAA tournament.
2017 is the first year they've had a 4 game playoff.
And when you have a first, it can never be a first again.
Next year teams/coaches will be a little more situated, more prepared. Compare this to Tim Cluess of Iona, one of the great tournament head coaches at a smaller conference (5 straight conference finals). These coaches have seen none of this.
But the first year results in unpreparedness because you know not what to come.
And with that uncertainty comes what I posit as close games, because it affects both teams on the court.
We only have a sample of 2 (nothing really but something is better than nothing). The result of this theory? Princeton brutally backdoored a -7.5vs. Penn spread BUT went to OT to do. When it came down to it, it was a coin flip of a game at the buzzer in regulation. Yes, 8 pt margin was the final but in the original 40, if not for a missed FT, this ends as a one pt win or loss for Princeton.
The other game? Yale had as much as a 13 point lead on Harvard. But, when it came down to it, it ended as a 2 pt nailbiter 73-71.
Now remember this, Penn has a BELOW .500 record and was going up against the cream of the crop in Princeton. Princeton NEVER lead in regulation. Penn is so bad, they lost to lowly Dartmoth (The Tulane of the Ivy's) TWICE and here they were, 6 seconds away from beating Princeton. This feeds into unpreparedness for tournament play, Princeton a squad that prides itself in preparation vs. a freerolling team. And look at the result.
Uncertainty (New Tournament - First time)
Unfamiliar surroundings (Non-conference arena)
Extra games (Usually ends with the final game of the season)
If anything Princeton should feel royally screwed here because they would have already punched their ticket. That would have lead to a bashing of Penn. Not so. Penn lead the entire game up to the last 6 seconds. I will say that this game was a home game for Penn. That's relevant.
Why is this all important? Yale is getting SEVEN POINTS. Yes Yale can win a squeaker AND they get a key number that can be very relevant in a game that has never happened before: an all-out war for the IVY league conference title.
But this Unfamiliarity/Uncertainty/Extra puts a burden, LESS on the teams who are privileged to be there (Harvard/Penn/Yale) but MORE on the Champ who now must to that much more to get the brass ring. They must deal with THAT MUCH MORE when they would have had this all locked up last year. And that breeds contempt and resentment towards the other 'less-qualified' team and the league. And that is bad mindset to have.
Think of angles as layers of sediment. Over millions of years that sediment fossilizes the bones of the creatures that have perished above. These layers of pressure are squarely on Princeton. Pick and choose them how you want and stack them on Princeton's back.
Layer 2. OT
Princeton went to OT yesterday, played it's stars that many more minutes in high drama (another element that is hard to come down from) and now has to turn around at NOON tomorrow in a back to back and do it all again.
And Yale gets 7 in that spot. I Iike that.
Layer 3. Double revenge
Yes, Princeton must now play off of high drama in OT in its first conference tournament ever and beat a Yale team for a third straight time after a 58-66 @ Princeton win in a close one late at Yale and after Princeton embarrassed them at home 71-52. Can they sweep them? Yes. But doing it is hard enough in this spot. We get 7 to work with. We don't even have to win. Princeton has to manhandle them to cover and remember no team has ever even had a double revenge game in this conference.
Layer 4. No practice time
Team's that pride themselves on preparedness and scouting will be able to do none of that playing a game 16-18 hours later. Makes for good, close games played on the fly.
Layer 5. Princeton's win streak
This is eerily similar to Vermont (also with a very early start time of 11am; this game starts at 12pm), who had a perfect conference record (Princeton has one here 15-0; Vermont at 16-0) and a huge win streak (20 games for Vermont; 18 for Princeton) and in a game against a team they had double revenge against giving very similar spread (7 here to Yale and 9.5 to Albany from Vermont).
Result? It went right to the wire with Vermont winning after a game-tying 3 missed at the buzzer: 56-53. And remember not only was Vermont home, they had 6 days to prepare.
Not the case here!
I love fading win streaks. Coming in at the right time to upstage the mighty streaking team that the public has salivated over for weeks.
The psychological yoke of these streaks becomes too much, a proverbial "Must we be PERFECT?" doubting mantra resonating in the minds of these 18-22 year old players when they face adversity beyond their regular season title long gone and replaced with this tournament. And adversity will be trailing or a back and forth game of any kind.
That is what makes 7 so valuable! We will take, every point here and hope for a squeaker and hope the sedimentary layers of PRESSURE bear down on the backs of Princeton for as long as possible over 40 minutes. Nothing to fossilize, but a lifetime of time to these players for what's at stake.
The pick:
YALE +7 over PRINCETON
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