Thursday spreadsheet is up I come up with 10 games.Side note on NBA.I've been trackinggames where Sagarin has 3 pt or more difference from opener.If you play toward vegas 1-9 if you go with Sagarin 9-1.(have only tracked this for a few days.
I bet this changes tonight. Vegas will start their comeback!
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Quote Originally Posted by bailey314:
Thursday spreadsheet is up I come up with 10 games.Side note on NBA.I've been trackinggames where Sagarin has 3 pt or more difference from opener.If you play toward vegas 1-9 if you go with Sagarin 9-1.(have only tracked this for a few days.
Thursday spreadsheet is up I come up with 10 games.Side note on NBA.I've been trackinggames where Sagarin has 3 pt or more difference from opener.If you play toward vegas 1-9 if you go with Sagarin 9-1.(have only tracked this for a few days.
I created a spreadsheet with NBA data here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlyDx4nqXCfEdEJMcGpxRjhFQlR3cFVMNXZrbFJuQlE#gid=0
All data came from thepredictiontracker.com except for the public %, which came from covers.com.
I played with the numbers and found that with no filtering, when there is a difference of 3 between Sagarin and the Vegas opening line you end up 73-73 since December 29; over the past two weeks it has been terrible, going 2-8.
Someone mentioned that the system breaks down when Sagarin predicts large victories, so i adjusted for when Sagarin predicts the home team to win by 12 or more.
So if Sagarin predicts a home team victory by less than 12 (or the road team to win) and there is a difference of 3 from the Vegas opening line, siding with Vegas has gone 52-39 since December 29 (57%), although only 2-6 over the past week and 11-11 over the past two.
If you get cute and side with Sagarin when Sagarin predicts a home team victory by 12 or more and there is a difference of 3 from vegas, you would've improved to 81-60 since December 29 (57%), 4-6 over the past week and 19-15 over the past two.
Definitely needs some tweaking, but with any luck there may be a decent system ready to go by the time cbb winds down.
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Quote Originally Posted by bailey314:
Thursday spreadsheet is up I come up with 10 games.Side note on NBA.I've been trackinggames where Sagarin has 3 pt or more difference from opener.If you play toward vegas 1-9 if you go with Sagarin 9-1.(have only tracked this for a few days.
I created a spreadsheet with NBA data here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlyDx4nqXCfEdEJMcGpxRjhFQlR3cFVMNXZrbFJuQlE#gid=0
All data came from thepredictiontracker.com except for the public %, which came from covers.com.
I played with the numbers and found that with no filtering, when there is a difference of 3 between Sagarin and the Vegas opening line you end up 73-73 since December 29; over the past two weeks it has been terrible, going 2-8.
Someone mentioned that the system breaks down when Sagarin predicts large victories, so i adjusted for when Sagarin predicts the home team to win by 12 or more.
So if Sagarin predicts a home team victory by less than 12 (or the road team to win) and there is a difference of 3 from the Vegas opening line, siding with Vegas has gone 52-39 since December 29 (57%), although only 2-6 over the past week and 11-11 over the past two.
If you get cute and side with Sagarin when Sagarin predicts a home team victory by 12 or more and there is a difference of 3 from vegas, you would've improved to 81-60 since December 29 (57%), 4-6 over the past week and 19-15 over the past two.
Definitely needs some tweaking, but with any luck there may be a decent system ready to go by the time cbb winds down.
I created a spreadsheet with NBA data here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlyDx4nqXCfEdEJMcGpxRjhFQlR3cFVMNXZrbFJuQlE#gid=0
All data came from thepredictiontracker.com except for the public %, which came from covers.com.
I played with the numbers and found that with no filtering, when there is a difference of 3 between Sagarin and the Vegas opening line you end up 73-73 since December 29; over the past two weeks it has been terrible, going 2-8.
Someone mentioned that the system breaks down when Sagarin predicts large victories, so i adjusted for when Sagarin predicts the home team to win by 12 or more.
So if Sagarin predicts a home team victory by less than 12 (or the road team to win) and there is a difference of 3 from the Vegas opening line, siding with Vegas has gone 52-39 since December 29 (57%), although only 2-6 over the past week and 11-11 over the past two.
If you get cute and side with Sagarin when Sagarin predicts a home team victory by 12 or more and there is a difference of 3 from vegas, you would've improved to 81-60 since December 29 (57%), 4-6 over the past week and 19-15 over the past two.
Definitely needs some tweaking, but with any luck there may be a decent system ready to go by the time cbb winds down.
Impressive spreadsheet don't have time to look in detail right now but thats a lot of good info.
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Quote Originally Posted by djmdthedoc:
I created a spreadsheet with NBA data here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AlyDx4nqXCfEdEJMcGpxRjhFQlR3cFVMNXZrbFJuQlE#gid=0
All data came from thepredictiontracker.com except for the public %, which came from covers.com.
I played with the numbers and found that with no filtering, when there is a difference of 3 between Sagarin and the Vegas opening line you end up 73-73 since December 29; over the past two weeks it has been terrible, going 2-8.
Someone mentioned that the system breaks down when Sagarin predicts large victories, so i adjusted for when Sagarin predicts the home team to win by 12 or more.
So if Sagarin predicts a home team victory by less than 12 (or the road team to win) and there is a difference of 3 from the Vegas opening line, siding with Vegas has gone 52-39 since December 29 (57%), although only 2-6 over the past week and 11-11 over the past two.
If you get cute and side with Sagarin when Sagarin predicts a home team victory by 12 or more and there is a difference of 3 from vegas, you would've improved to 81-60 since December 29 (57%), 4-6 over the past week and 19-15 over the past two.
Definitely needs some tweaking, but with any luck there may be a decent system ready to go by the time cbb winds down.
Impressive spreadsheet don't have time to look in detail right now but thats a lot of good info.
I have and correct me if i'm wrong..........of the 7 dog plays 1st 1/2 plays with UC Davis to finish yet..... is 4-1 det w ut w canisus w n arz w and oral robert {aka ..gay bob... lost
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I have and correct me if i'm wrong..........of the 7 dog plays 1st 1/2 plays with UC Davis to finish yet..... is 4-1 det w ut w canisus w n arz w and oral robert {aka ..gay bob... lost
Fridays spreadsheet.Looks like only Yale.Will try to get early start on Saturdays sheet this afternoon.Will use Ken Pom's fanmatch numbers he has listed for tomorrow with so few games today his #'s for tomorrow shouldn't have many changes.
Fridays spreadsheet.Looks like only Yale.Will try to get early start on Saturdays sheet this afternoon.Will use Ken Pom's fanmatch numbers he has listed for tomorrow with so few games today his #'s for tomorrow shouldn't have many changes.
beav, that website only goes as far back as yesterday's games. I haven't found any website that archives the 1H lines for previous games. I've looked a lot. You need to estimate the lines based on full game lines.
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beav, that website only goes as far back as yesterday's games. I haven't found any website that archives the 1H lines for previous games. I've looked a lot. You need to estimate the lines based on full game lines.
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