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Vegas vs KenPom Week 11

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Posted: #51
Duquesne has ML written all over it. All the Covers Clowns are on Dayton.
 
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Posted: #52

kirby Looking like   a nice call on Duquesne.

Beaver, has anyone been tracking the games that we dump due to 65%, like the Michigan game?  Do you know what percentage the other team covers, in this case if Indiana covers??

 
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Posted: #53
Did those ones go 4-3 stiff?
 
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Posted: #54

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Did those ones go 4-3 stiff?

That is what I show for the first halfs.

 
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Posted: #55
And of course all seven are getting waxed in the second half
 
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Posted: #56
TCU, BC, and N. Ill all covered 1st half as well
 
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Posted: #57
I only played the 3 A-10 games, Northeastern, and Uconn....Fordham missed by half point, Northeastern had so many chances to cover late, and Uconn looked awful
 
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Posted: #58

I had the record on 1st halfs as 7-3.

5-5 for the day (with the lines I had full game)

 
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Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:

I had the record on 1st halfs as 7-3.

5-5 for the day (with the lines I had full game)

Stiffler  I had the same numbers, I've been playing those 1st half plays stronger than the regular plays.....70% compared to 50%  playing ONLY games getting points .not even pickems

 
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Posted: #60

Kelly Criterion Method
Tonight: 5-5 -$50.60
Since 1/13/2012: 55.56% or 85-68-2
Running Total: +200.62

Inputs updated for 2/2
Starting bankroll: 500.00 + 200.62 = $700.62
Home, Favorite, Away (HFA) 56.9% or 66
Home, Dog, Away (HDA) 56.9% or 66
Road, Fav, Away (RFA) 56.3% or 58
Road, Dog, Away (RDA) 56.4% or 59
Home, Fav, Towards (HFT) 54.1% or 25
Home, Dog, Towards (HDT) 54.5% or 31
Road, Fav, Towards (RFT) 53.3% or 14
Road, Dog, Towards (RDT) 53.9% or 22

 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by indiana49er:

kirby Looking like   a nice call on Duquesne.

Beaver, has anyone been tracking the games that we dump due to 65%, like the Michigan game?  Do you know what percentage the other team covers, in this case if Indiana covers??


The over 65% games that were thrown out have lost more than they've won.  I don't have the exact figure, but it was obvious.  That filter is definitely legit!
 
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Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by 11spread11:

Stiffler  I had the same numbers, I've been playing those 1st half plays stronger than the regular plays.....70% compared to 50%  playing ONLY games getting points .not even pickems


I've noticed too, that the 1st half seems stonger....especially with the substantial dogs.

Is there anyway to back-track the 1st half's on all these plays?
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by sharpmoney75:


The over 65% games that were thrown out have lost more than they've won.  I don't have the exact figure, but it was obvious.  That filter is definitely legit!

If this is true would it make sense to start betting the other way on these games?

 
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Posted: #64

Thursday spreadsheet is up I come up with 10 games.Side note on NBA.I've been trackinggames where Sagarin has 3 pt or more difference from opener.If you play toward vegas 1-9 if you go with Sagarin 9-1.(have only tracked this for a few days.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuuN53qKxKMtdDVRcnNPeXNrMzBCSUhLOVJ6UTRhd3c&hl=en_US#gid=0

 
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Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by bailey314:

Thursday spreadsheet is up I come up with 10 games.Side note on NBA.I've been trackinggames where Sagarin has 3 pt or more difference from opener.If you play toward vegas 1-9 if you go with Sagarin 9-1.(have only tracked this for a few days.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AuuN53qKxKMtdDVRcnNPeXNrMzBCSUhLOVJ6UTRhd3c&hl=en_US#gid=0

65% rule .. no plays  Cal St Full .. Nevada.. Doiub le check ??? Anyone ??
 
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Posted: #66
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

65% rule .. no plays  Cal St Full .. Nevada.. Doiub le check ??? Anyone ??

I just list all games I use Sportsoptions for public %'s and right now CSF is 56% and Nevada 57%
 
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Posted: #67
Official Thursday Plays:

Detroit +2.5 (RDN)  39.5
Utah +10 (HDT)  14.0
UC Davis +11 (RDN)  12.3
Canisius +23.5 (RDA)  8.9
SEMO St +14 (RDA)  15.2
N.Az +6  (HDN)  16.5
O.Rob +2.5 (RDN)  56.7

CS Ful, Nevada, E.Ill all over 65%
 
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Posted: #68
Man, have we got some barkers tonight.
 
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Posted: #69
Glad I clicked on this thread... seems like you all are onto something here... GL tonight



 
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Posted: #70
Question, as far as units, are you using equal units across the board on the games selected, or does it vary?
 
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Posted: #71
YTD Record

For the night: 5-5 (50%)

For the week: 9-5 (64%)

For the year: 255-209 (55%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 143-113 (56%)
Road Teams: 93-80 (54%)

Favorites: 89-75 (54%)
Dogs:     166-134 (55%)

Line moved toward KP:  178-161 (53%)
Line moved away KP:  56-30 (65%)
 
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Posted: #72
 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by HineysDaMan:

Question, as far as units, are you using equal units across the board on the games selected, or does it vary?


Its up to you.  I haven't been tracking units +/-, just the wins and losses.  Trabs is keeping track of the kelly betting system (check out post 60)
 
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Posted: #74

Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

Man, have we got some barkers tonight.

On the topic, I've counted 39 dog bets in a row.  I read somewhere that favorites killed it in January, so hopefully February is the month of the dog!

 
 
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