so from what i get from that write up is that beaver just post what ken pom comes up with. so for $20 i get ken poms spreads basically
Not at all. We are comparing Vegas opening lines with kenpom fan match. Kenpom is a great site with alot of data per teams. When there's a difference (points in blog) we just side with Vegas.
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Quote Originally Posted by jageer1:
so from what i get from that write up is that beaver just post what ken pom comes up with. so for $20 i get ken poms spreads basically
Not at all. We are comparing Vegas opening lines with kenpom fan match. Kenpom is a great site with alot of data per teams. When there's a difference (points in blog) we just side with Vegas.
I mentioned the first half thing but I have zero data. Just something I ve watched here lately. Sorry wish I had more. I ll try and keep a track from tomorrow on.
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I mentioned the first half thing but I have zero data. Just something I ve watched here lately. Sorry wish I had more. I ll try and keep a track from tomorrow on.
Beav, it appears that this thrill score thing started showing up from the middle of January on. I think you'll find that the %'s improve markedly then. I have no explanation why.
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Beav, it appears that this thrill score thing started showing up from the middle of January on. I think you'll find that the %'s improve markedly then. I have no explanation why.
How did you get that from what is written on the blog?
We look at Kenpom's line, then look at the earliest opening line from Vegas (or off-shore books) which is usually BetOnline. Then we compare the two different lines and see what, if any, the difference is. If the difference is big enough based on the BetOnline opening line (or whatever Vegas or off-shore line we used) then there is a play. And if there is a play, we always side with Vegas. For example, tonight's plays:
Illinois opened at BetOnline at +2.5. Kenpom had Illinois +6. So there is a difference of 3.5 points. In this case, Kenpom thinks Michigan St is stronger than Vegas so we choose Illinois because we side with Vegas.
Clemson opened at BetOnline at +8. Kenpom had Clemson at +11. So there is a 3 point difference. This is the same as the Illinois game.
Here is the current point levels and their required differentials:
0-4 must have 2.5 point difference
4.5-8 must have 3 point difference
8.5-12 must have a 3.5 point difference
12.5-15.5 must have 4 point difference
16+ must have a 5 point difference
Note that the levels are based on Vegas lines and not Kenpom
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How did you get that from what is written on the blog?
We look at Kenpom's line, then look at the earliest opening line from Vegas (or off-shore books) which is usually BetOnline. Then we compare the two different lines and see what, if any, the difference is. If the difference is big enough based on the BetOnline opening line (or whatever Vegas or off-shore line we used) then there is a play. And if there is a play, we always side with Vegas. For example, tonight's plays:
Illinois opened at BetOnline at +2.5. Kenpom had Illinois +6. So there is a difference of 3.5 points. In this case, Kenpom thinks Michigan St is stronger than Vegas so we choose Illinois because we side with Vegas.
Clemson opened at BetOnline at +8. Kenpom had Clemson at +11. So there is a 3 point difference. This is the same as the Illinois game.
Here is the current point levels and their required differentials:
0-4 must have 2.5 point difference
4.5-8 must have 3 point difference
8.5-12 must have a 3.5 point difference
12.5-15.5 must have 4 point difference
16+ must have a 5 point difference
Note that the levels are based on Vegas lines and not Kenpom
Love all the "tweaking" going on with the "system".
I confess, I strayed away from system for a day and took Virginia and Kentucky instead. Luckily I split instead of losing both since we went 2-0 on system. Just really thought Virginia would clamp D down enough to force late fouls and have better FT shooting team pull away for 10pt win. Oh well, liked Ilini too, but chickened out...hoping to pull out K State and Razorbacks to net +$950.
Carry on!
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Love all the "tweaking" going on with the "system".
I confess, I strayed away from system for a day and took Virginia and Kentucky instead. Luckily I split instead of losing both since we went 2-0 on system. Just really thought Virginia would clamp D down enough to force late fouls and have better FT shooting team pull away for 10pt win. Oh well, liked Ilini too, but chickened out...hoping to pull out K State and Razorbacks to net +$950.
my point is that beaver isnt number crunching to get his plays of the day. hes paying his subscription and playing what ken pom is saying is a strong play. i understand that ken pom offers all the stats you could ask for but hes showing in this forums kens plays
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my point is that beaver isnt number crunching to get his plays of the day. hes paying his subscription and playing what ken pom is saying is a strong play. i understand that ken pom offers all the stats you could ask for but hes showing in this forums kens plays
my point is that beaver isnt number crunching to get his plays of the day. hes paying his subscription and playing what ken pom is saying is a strong play. i understand that ken pom offers all the stats you could ask for but hes showing in this forums kens plays
It is literally the exact opposite. We are playing what is a strong play based on what Vegas is saying COMPARED to what Kenpom says. It isn't like we just signed up for Kenpom and are betting his plays.
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Quote Originally Posted by jageer1:
my point is that beaver isnt number crunching to get his plays of the day. hes paying his subscription and playing what ken pom is saying is a strong play. i understand that ken pom offers all the stats you could ask for but hes showing in this forums kens plays
It is literally the exact opposite. We are playing what is a strong play based on what Vegas is saying COMPARED to what Kenpom says. It isn't like we just signed up for Kenpom and are betting his plays.
ok i miss wrote what i was trying to get across you are using ken pom to either bet with or against him. i get that my original curiosity was if beaver made the picks by himself or what was on ken poms site. i have my answer now obviously
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ok i miss wrote what i was trying to get across you are using ken pom to either bet with or against him. i get that my original curiosity was if beaver made the picks by himself or what was on ken poms site. i have my answer now obviously
Anyone who's read or been following this thread for a day would realize we are NOT playing Kenpom's plays...come on. As a matter of fact not one single time have I ever heard anyone in here say "Oh, kenpom says that's a strong play so we should play it."
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Anyone who's read or been following this thread for a day would realize we are NOT playing Kenpom's plays...come on. As a matter of fact not one single time have I ever heard anyone in here say "Oh, kenpom says that's a strong play so we should play it."
thats why im asking how the damn site works . i was tryin to figure out how you guys make your plays. i respect the system no doubt, but trying to learn more
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thats why im asking how the damn site works . i was tryin to figure out how you guys make your plays. i respect the system no doubt, but trying to learn more
thats why im asking how the damn site works . i was tryin to figure out how you guys make your plays. i respect the system no doubt, but trying to learn more
Jageer,
the kp website has a ton of great information. We only use the fanmatch section of his website for this system. If you pay the $20 you get access to in depth stats for every team and every conference...it really is an amazing tool to have.
(KP should send us all a big check for all the recognition he is getting from this)
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Quote Originally Posted by jageer1:
thats why im asking how the damn site works . i was tryin to figure out how you guys make your plays. i respect the system no doubt, but trying to learn more
Jageer,
the kp website has a ton of great information. We only use the fanmatch section of his website for this system. If you pay the $20 you get access to in depth stats for every team and every conference...it really is an amazing tool to have.
(KP should send us all a big check for all the recognition he is getting from this)
Beav, it appears that this thrill score thing started showing up from the middle of January on. I think you'll find that the %'s improve markedly then. I have no explanation why.
Maybe it has something to do with conference play starting...there are quite a few garbage teams that the system has picked over and over again and they seem to lose everytime. The thrill score would get rid of this problem. I guess we will see where its at when I get the spreadsheet all caught up tomorrow
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Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:
Beav, it appears that this thrill score thing started showing up from the middle of January on. I think you'll find that the %'s improve markedly then. I have no explanation why.
Maybe it has something to do with conference play starting...there are quite a few garbage teams that the system has picked over and over again and they seem to lose everytime. The thrill score would get rid of this problem. I guess we will see where its at when I get the spreadsheet all caught up tomorrow
I mentioned the first half thing but I have zero data. Just something I ve watched here lately. Sorry wish I had more. I ll try and keep a track from tomorrow on.
It seems like our plays are ALWAYS ahead at half time...does anyone know of a way to get first half lines from the beginning of the season? I bet they would be killing it!
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Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:
I mentioned the first half thing but I have zero data. Just something I ve watched here lately. Sorry wish I had more. I ll try and keep a track from tomorrow on.
It seems like our plays are ALWAYS ahead at half time...does anyone know of a way to get first half lines from the beginning of the season? I bet they would be killing it!
ok i miss wrote what i was trying to get across you are using ken pom to either bet with or against him. i get that my original curiosity was if beaver made the picks by himself or what was on ken poms site. i have my answer now obviously
Just so you're straight, Pomeroy doesn't have any "plays", it's not AT ALL a gambling-oriented site. Here's an idea....visit the website and get an idea of what it's all about. It's actually a really cool website with a ton of team and individual player data that, if nothing else, will add to your enjoyment (not to mention knowledge) if you're watching a game. Strictly from a college hoop fan standpoint, worth way more than the modest fee he charges.
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Quote Originally Posted by jageer1:
ok i miss wrote what i was trying to get across you are using ken pom to either bet with or against him. i get that my original curiosity was if beaver made the picks by himself or what was on ken poms site. i have my answer now obviously
Just so you're straight, Pomeroy doesn't have any "plays", it's not AT ALL a gambling-oriented site. Here's an idea....visit the website and get an idea of what it's all about. It's actually a really cool website with a ton of team and individual player data that, if nothing else, will add to your enjoyment (not to mention knowledge) if you're watching a game. Strictly from a college hoop fan standpoint, worth way more than the modest fee he charges.
I got the same numbers as bailey's spreadsheet. Mich and Indiana State were not included because of 65%
Me too. I got all 1st half wrote down at 6pm est. (My lines in about 4 games are different now, most moving away, so my 1st half lines my be a little different than they were. Anyhow, I have them wrote down. Im not playing any of them. Just keeping track)
I got the same numbers as bailey's spreadsheet. Mich and Indiana State were not included because of 65%
Me too. I got all 1st half wrote down at 6pm est. (My lines in about 4 games are different now, most moving away, so my 1st half lines my be a little different than they were. Anyhow, I have them wrote down. Im not playing any of them. Just keeping track)
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. i was tryin to figure out how you guys make your plays. i respect the system no doubt, but trying to learn more
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