Even after the last three bad days, anyone who has bet $100 on every game is up $1,630 in the last 9 weeks. Not bad for something that requires zero knowledge of college basketball.
No need to let us know how bad things are going...those people who have been in this thread everyday know very well that the last three days have not gone well.
Alot of people have put alot of time into this. DO NOT TAIL BLINDLY
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Even after the last three bad days, anyone who has bet $100 on every game is up $1,630 in the last 9 weeks. Not bad for something that requires zero knowledge of college basketball.
No need to let us know how bad things are going...those people who have been in this thread everyday know very well that the last three days have not gone well.
Alot of people have put alot of time into this. DO NOT TAIL BLINDLY
Even after the last three bad days, anyone who has bet $100 on every game is up $1,630 in the last 9 weeks. Not bad for something that requires zero knowledge of college basketball.
No need to let us know how bad things are going...those people who have been in this thread everyday know very well that the last three days have not gone well.
Alot of people have put alot of time into this. DO NOT TAIL BLINDLY
Exactly.........
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Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:
Even after the last three bad days, anyone who has bet $100 on every game is up $1,630 in the last 9 weeks. Not bad for something that requires zero knowledge of college basketball.
No need to let us know how bad things are going...those people who have been in this thread everyday know very well that the last three days have not gone well.
Alot of people have put alot of time into this. DO NOT TAIL BLINDLY
Regarding the guy that mentioned lines varying from both sagarin and pomeroy, in power6 games this season, fading both sagarin + pomeroy (when both are off the opening line by at least 2 points in the same direction) is 55-49 (53%).
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Regarding the guy that mentioned lines varying from both sagarin and pomeroy, in power6 games this season, fading both sagarin + pomeroy (when both are off the opening line by at least 2 points in the same direction) is 55-49 (53%).
I have been sitting out the past couple days and glad I did again today. To the people complaining only take the plays that you like, no1 is holding a gun to your head. I realize San Diego St. is a play, but I do not think it is a smart play and I'm sure over 65% of the public will be on San Diego St. anyway.
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I have been sitting out the past couple days and glad I did again today. To the people complaining only take the plays that you like, no1 is holding a gun to your head. I realize San Diego St. is a play, but I do not think it is a smart play and I'm sure over 65% of the public will be on San Diego St. anyway.
After going over the numbers I thought for sure this would be over 65%. Its right around 50%.
I thought so too. Someone just posted an article saying that SDST got stranded in Utah last night when their plane had to stop to gas up. I may throw a little on the ML but, I am not a huge fan of this play. Wyo is 27-7 all time at home against the aztecs and they have lost the last two. Wouldn't be surprised to see Wyo win by DD.
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Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:
After going over the numbers I thought for sure this would be over 65%. Its right around 50%.
I thought so too. Someone just posted an article saying that SDST got stranded in Utah last night when their plane had to stop to gas up. I may throw a little on the ML but, I am not a huge fan of this play. Wyo is 27-7 all time at home against the aztecs and they have lost the last two. Wouldn't be surprised to see Wyo win by DD.
Beaverfan- going back to the beginning of the post I think it would be smart to lay off of Saturdays. I think if we could concentrate on the week and put it to rest we could kill the book the following week. Just a thought as I have been following your system for quiet sometime. Anyway lets continue with it as I think it could be very profitable....BOL tonight as I will be keepiin an eye on the SDST game.
Thanks again for all you guy's hard work
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Beaverfan- going back to the beginning of the post I think it would be smart to lay off of Saturdays. I think if we could concentrate on the week and put it to rest we could kill the book the following week. Just a thought as I have been following your system for quiet sometime. Anyway lets continue with it as I think it could be very profitable....BOL tonight as I will be keepiin an eye on the SDST game.
Just an FYI on Sagarin rankings for those interested. Sagarin and KenPom went 0-1 last night. Sagarin disagreed with KenPom and said to lay off the other 5 games which went 1-4. Tonight, Sagarin says that Wyoming should be favored by 3.81, and the opening line was a pick, so both Sagarin and KenPom agree on this as a play.
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Just an FYI on Sagarin rankings for those interested. Sagarin and KenPom went 0-1 last night. Sagarin disagreed with KenPom and said to lay off the other 5 games which went 1-4. Tonight, Sagarin says that Wyoming should be favored by 3.81, and the opening line was a pick, so both Sagarin and KenPom agree on this as a play.
Line moved toward KP: 141-135 (51%) Line moved away KP: 52-27 (66%)
Looking at the stats so far, it would seem to me that if all "towards" are hitting at 51%, that anything that is a toward should be a no play? There is a statiscal significance between towards and away, however there is not one between, home/away, and fav/dog. That 66% number could very well regress towards the mean, but it seems that at this point, the only relavant statistic would be that the line is moving away from KenPom.
I will continue to track, along with the Sagarin angle, however I am not going to play toward movement.
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Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:
YTD Record
For the night: 1-5 (17%)
For the week: 1-5 (17%)
For the year: 211-177 (54%)
In depth stats:
Home Teams: 110-94 (54%) Road Teams: 82-67 (55%)
Favorites: 81-68 (54%) Dogs: 130-109 (54%)
Line moved toward KP: 141-135 (51%) Line moved away KP: 52-27 (66%)
Looking at the stats so far, it would seem to me that if all "towards" are hitting at 51%, that anything that is a toward should be a no play? There is a statiscal significance between towards and away, however there is not one between, home/away, and fav/dog. That 66% number could very well regress towards the mean, but it seems that at this point, the only relavant statistic would be that the line is moving away from KenPom.
I will continue to track, along with the Sagarin angle, however I am not going to play toward movement.
Looking at the stats so far, it would seem to me that if all "towards" are hitting at 51%, that anything that is a toward should be a no play? There is a statiscal significance between towards and away, however there is not one between, home/away, and fav/dog. That 66% number could very well regress towards the mean, but it seems that at this point, the only relavant statistic would be that the line is moving away from KenPom.
I will continue to track, along with the Sagarin angle, however I am not going to play toward movement.
This has been discussed before in previous threads. Im sure some only play the away movement.
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Quote Originally Posted by RB24:
Looking at the stats so far, it would seem to me that if all "towards" are hitting at 51%, that anything that is a toward should be a no play? There is a statiscal significance between towards and away, however there is not one between, home/away, and fav/dog. That 66% number could very well regress towards the mean, but it seems that at this point, the only relavant statistic would be that the line is moving away from KenPom.
I will continue to track, along with the Sagarin angle, however I am not going to play toward movement.
This has been discussed before in previous threads. Im sure some only play the away movement.
First off, amazing work by everyone here, your results continue to be impressive.
I've posted on some of the other weekly threads, but for those who don't understand KenPom -
I find it no coincidence that this system is going into a tailspin just as the preseason rankings and past year rankings have finally been fully eliminated from KenPom's rankings. If you believe in KenPom's analysis, then fading him as he gets more and more data points for this year without data "dirtying" the picture from last year/preseason just doesn't make sense. KenPom should, in theory, become sharper and sharper as the year goes on (excluding team altering injuries and other factors his system doesn't account for).
The perfect example was Duke's AdjD ranking. It's gone from 20 to 89 and it actually increased 5 spots when they didn't even play as preseason data expired. (I track all this data daily for my home built system).
I think all the work here has been great, keep it rolling guys, but those who are following blindly should really try and understand the system better.
Good luck everyone.
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First off, amazing work by everyone here, your results continue to be impressive.
I've posted on some of the other weekly threads, but for those who don't understand KenPom -
I find it no coincidence that this system is going into a tailspin just as the preseason rankings and past year rankings have finally been fully eliminated from KenPom's rankings. If you believe in KenPom's analysis, then fading him as he gets more and more data points for this year without data "dirtying" the picture from last year/preseason just doesn't make sense. KenPom should, in theory, become sharper and sharper as the year goes on (excluding team altering injuries and other factors his system doesn't account for).
The perfect example was Duke's AdjD ranking. It's gone from 20 to 89 and it actually increased 5 spots when they didn't even play as preseason data expired. (I track all this data daily for my home built system).
I think all the work here has been great, keep it rolling guys, but those who are following blindly should really try and understand the system better.
I just posted the numbers as they came out based on a system I have used for a few years. Anytime there is a 4+ point difference it is looked at.
Since Wyoming is now favored by 2.5 this would become a no play for those that would play at that line. The difference between this system and the kp one is that this one respects line movement and doesn't use stale lines to base a play unless it's played at the time the numbers are put together.
Sagarain and KP #'s can be used a lot of ways so for someone to say Sagarain agrees with kp picks is only true if that is how you are using the #'s.
Unranked teams favored over ranked teams such as in this game have a high propensity for covering. And add historical #'s between these teams and a late arrival and you have a perfect cocktail on your hands to bet Wyoming.
Not saying which set of #'s are right or wrong that's for others to worry about. I am looking for the best way to win possible.
Originally Posted by trabs9]
So you are going against Beaver's official play on his thread?
[/Quote]
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I just posted the numbers as they came out based on a system I have used for a few years. Anytime there is a 4+ point difference it is looked at.
Since Wyoming is now favored by 2.5 this would become a no play for those that would play at that line. The difference between this system and the kp one is that this one respects line movement and doesn't use stale lines to base a play unless it's played at the time the numbers are put together.
Sagarain and KP #'s can be used a lot of ways so for someone to say Sagarain agrees with kp picks is only true if that is how you are using the #'s.
Unranked teams favored over ranked teams such as in this game have a high propensity for covering. And add historical #'s between these teams and a late arrival and you have a perfect cocktail on your hands to bet Wyoming.
Not saying which set of #'s are right or wrong that's for others to worry about. I am looking for the best way to win possible.
Originally Posted by trabs9]
So you are going against Beaver's official play on his thread?
First off, amazing work by everyone here, your results continue to be impressive.
I've posted on some of the other weekly threads, but for those who don't understand KenPom -
I find it no coincidence that this system is going into a tailspin just as the preseason rankings and past year rankings have finally been fully eliminated from KenPom's rankings. If you believe in KenPom's analysis, then fading him as he gets more and more data points for this year without data "dirtying" the picture from last year/preseason just doesn't make sense. KenPom should, in theory, become sharper and sharper as the year goes on (excluding team altering injuries and other factors his system doesn't account for).
The perfect example was Duke's AdjD ranking. It's gone from 20 to 89 and it actually increased 5 spots when they didn't even play as preseason data expired. (I track all this data daily for my home built system).
I think all the work here has been great, keep it rolling guys, but those who are following blindly should really try and understand the system better.
Good luck everyone.
You guys are all missing the gist of this system. It's not a fade against aything....it's a play on Vegas! We're using Kenpom as a reference to where the line "should be". It shows us where Vegas is "going out on a limb" so to speak. Hence, also why the 65%+ plays are not profitable. Because if 65% like the play, then Vegas did not go "out on a limb" when they offered the opening number.
Until you understand this, you will never understand the system.
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Quote Originally Posted by hagrin:
First off, amazing work by everyone here, your results continue to be impressive.
I've posted on some of the other weekly threads, but for those who don't understand KenPom -
I find it no coincidence that this system is going into a tailspin just as the preseason rankings and past year rankings have finally been fully eliminated from KenPom's rankings. If you believe in KenPom's analysis, then fading him as he gets more and more data points for this year without data "dirtying" the picture from last year/preseason just doesn't make sense. KenPom should, in theory, become sharper and sharper as the year goes on (excluding team altering injuries and other factors his system doesn't account for).
The perfect example was Duke's AdjD ranking. It's gone from 20 to 89 and it actually increased 5 spots when they didn't even play as preseason data expired. (I track all this data daily for my home built system).
I think all the work here has been great, keep it rolling guys, but those who are following blindly should really try and understand the system better.
Good luck everyone.
You guys are all missing the gist of this system. It's not a fade against aything....it's a play on Vegas! We're using Kenpom as a reference to where the line "should be". It shows us where Vegas is "going out on a limb" so to speak. Hence, also why the 65%+ plays are not profitable. Because if 65% like the play, then Vegas did not go "out on a limb" when they offered the opening number.
Until you understand this, you will never understand the system.
Quick look at tomorrow using KP's fanmatch for tomorrow vs Betonline openers I come up with 13 plays: Northeastern HF Pitt HF St John HD Rhode Island HD G Wash RD St Joe HF Xavier HF C Mich RD Ind. St. HD TCU HF Ok. St. HD Drake HD Tx Tech HD
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Quick look at tomorrow using KP's fanmatch for tomorrow vs Betonline openers I come up with 13 plays: Northeastern HF Pitt HF St John HD Rhode Island HD G Wash RD St Joe HF Xavier HF C Mich RD Ind. St. HD TCU HF Ok. St. HD Drake HD Tx Tech HD
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you are all way 2 smart stop it.....
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