Vegas vs KenPom Week 10

I can do it this way.  But I will preface, this is not to sabotage or adjust picks from Beaver's system.  People asked for the spreadsheets, so I am showing them.  My data has shown that KenPom is only hitting at 43% when Sagarin differs, so using that information, only W&M would be a play tonight if you were eliminating those where both did not agree.

I AM NOT SAYING TO DO THIS, OR THAT THIS IS THE TWEAK THAT WORKS, JUST POSTING THE INFORMATION FOR CONSIDERATION PURPOSES FOR THOSE THAT HAVE ASKED.  (Note, all lines adjusted for Home team and current Sagarin HFA of 3.55.  Home teams in bold)

Drex/W&M - Open - 10.5, Sagarin 14.73, diff of 4.23 = play

GaSt/JM - Open - 11.5, Sagarin 14.52, diff of 3.02 = no play

Dela/Towson - Open 16, Sagarin 19.07, diff of 3.07 = no play

LoyMar/SnClar - Open 2, Sagarin 3.2, diff of 1.2 = no play

GaSo/Citadel - Open 10, Sagarin 12.48, diff of 2.48 = no play

ArkPB/PVAM - Open 7, Sagarin 4.59, diff of 2.41 = no play

We can track and see how this plays out.  I will do my best to keep up daily.

The problem I have with the Kelly is that with a system it's hard to know what the success rate is going to be...

For me,  I have found that wagering a straight (2%) per bet accross the board works the best...

I make a lot of wagers though (around 2500 in a normal NCAAB season)...

Someone that makes a wager or two per day would probably expect a higher win %, and would probably be able to wager more per bet...

Hope this helps...Good Luck!

While there is this great of a disparity in lines moving towards and away, I believe the Kelly Criterion system is wise.  It is used in investment and gambling to manage wagers based off of bankroll and perceived winning percentage.  Given an almost 15% difference so far in line movement towards and away, it only makes sense to weight the wager amounts until "away moving sides" come back down towards the mean.  The actual Kelly formula is more complicated given payout odds, etc.  However you can use this simple formula for your own calculations.  If something has been hitting at 60%, then you would take .60-(.40*1.1).  (60% being your expected win percentage, and 40% being your expected chances of losing.  1.1 assuming you are laying 10% juice.)  This resulting number is .6-.44 or .16.  This would mean that you would place a wager for 16% of your bankroll on this wager that you believe hits 6 out of 10 times.  Obviously as this expected win percentage moves up and down, so does the wager, so that theoretically, you have the same amount of risk in every bet (assuming your expectations are accurate).  This philosophy is used by such folks as Warren Buffett when evaluating stocks.

What Bobcat is refering to I think is when I suggested making up a star system...

Give one star to each of the following: Road teams, Dogs, and Plays with Away Line Movement...

Then wager accordingly...1% for each star

For example: William & Mary tonight would be a  (1%) wager (HDN), while Towson would be a (3%) wager (RDA) 

and prairie a no play? (HFT)

Kelly Criterion Method
Since 1/13/2012: 55% or 40-33
Total: +281.02

Week 10 Inputs
Starting bankroll: 500.00 + 281.02 = 781.02
Home, Favorite, Away (HFA) 56.4% or 66
Home, Dog, Away (HDA) 57% or 76
Road, Fav, Away (RFA) 57.7% or 87
Road, Dog, Away (RDA) 57.2% or 79
Home, Fav, Towards (HFT) 55% or 43
Home, Dog, Towards (HDT) 55% or 43
Road, Fav, Towards (RFT) 55%% or 43
Road, Dog, Towards RDT) 55% or 43

I look at Sagarin extensively and look for differences in the team numbers compared to the betting line . I look for differences of 4+ points to look at the games. In past years it was a gold mine to play those games but not this year.

I use Sagarin extensively and have done quite well in using it and once I have the games, I'll do indepth handicapping to narrow the list down and then wager accordingly.

It takes more than just looking at numbers and fading or tailing a system you still want to do your due diligence to weed down the games and make the best selection possible.

Citadel covered

1-5 for the night. 

If the numbers are coming back to the median then it's time to use KP #'s to bet on the teams and not fade them.

Not sure what Sunday's results were but if you bet with KP on Saturday and tonight you are way ahead.

Can't believe some people...same as fair weather fans.

When things are going good they're everywhere singing the praises of the system and annointing beaver the new saviour.

Then a couple of bad days and...this system sucks...time to fade it...

People...it's called a correction...the system was hitting at a higher rate than normal now it's correcting itself...give it some time...

Geez!

Always an option to not follow it bro. To each his own. Better yet make up your own thread and track your plays. Then maybe we can come into your thread and let you know how your system blows.

So we had a tough night. Thats how betting goes. At the half, we were up in all our games if I remember right. Unfortunately there are two halfs to ever game.

To those who look in daily, we will keep plugging along.

I got the openings wrote down, I ll wait for KP to update and check in the am.

Thanks for all the work Beaver.