Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 23-19, +13.90
February Leans: 23-22
Just not sure how Cleveland State responds here. All the build-up to the revenge match-up with Valpo at home, and they tanked. Then, two days later, dropped their even bigger match-up with rival Butler. Now, they hit the road against one of the toughest defenses in the conference and welcome in a Drexel team that's won 19 of their last 20 games for Busted Bracket Saturday. Pretty nice revenge game for Wisconsin MKE, here as the 83 that Cleveland State posted in the first meeting was their highest point total in conference play and also happened to be the highest point total MKE's given up all year as well. Don't really have faith in either one of these offenses with recent results, so simply going with revenge here. Wisconsin MKE's only two home contests they've dropped in the Horizon came to Valpo and Youngstown State, who also happen to be the two of the tops in the league this year. I can't put CSU in that category. If you remember anything about my Cleveland State info from last year, a large part of the defensive analysis came down to D'Aundray Brown and how badly he was missed. He's got a groin injury, so this defense takes a major hit (and a big part of why they've sucked the last few games). His slashing offense also becomes less of a focal point and MKE can concentrate on what they do so well and that is guarding the perimeter. If he's not creating turnovers, the offense sputters in the half court, and they're a much, much, much easier team to score on (he is probably my hands down, most important defensive player to any team in the country at the guard spot - Briante doesn't get enough minutes for that spot, but it's close). I would have played this even if he was healthy, but this is just an added bonus here.
5* Wisconsin MKE PK
Played this game earlier this year without success, but that game did go over the listed 112.5 with only 56 possessions. Going back to the well here with an extra three points of value, and again a Clemson offense I don't think is still all that great. Also have Clemson with North Carolina on tap and just coming off their first conference road victory and highest offensive output on the road as well where they shot a sizzling 58%. In terms of Virginia, they'll play slow, and they defend well. It's also important to note that they have rebounded well off a loss all year and they haven't lost two straight all year. More importantly, I think it's safe to say that after giving up their highest conference total of the year of 70 to UNC last time out, they should rebound defensively. Going a step further, after a loss this year, they've given up 35 (Drexel), 38 (Georgia Tech), 49 (Boston College), and 44 (Wake Forest). And yes, those are full game point totals. In terms of the injury to Joe Harris, it only hurts their offense. Big Men in the pack defense aren't all that important. He was a pivotal reason the first game went over (he hit 3 straight three-pointers in a 19-3 run in the 2H). That first game was also a game in which Clemson's Milton Jenning's did not play. He's their best interior defender, and not all that efficient on the offensive end. Just having him in the lineup helps the Clemson defense, but it also takes possessions away from Booker and Smith who had decent games in the first meeting. Should be a game where Virginia makes it a point to hammer the ball into Scott, and a game Bennett really relies on the defense. If I liked this a few weeks ago, hard to avoid this now catching a few more points given the above.
3* Virginia/Clemson Under 115.5
First two times these two teams played this year, Indiana State was in the middle of a Wichita/Creighton sandwich. Since then, the offense has come to life with point totals of 90, 61, 66, 60, and 78. If you've been paying any attention to Illinois State, the defense has simply hit the fan. Yah, they held Drake to 53 (Drake was without Simons), Bradley to 48 in a rivalry game, and Southern Illinois to 40 in a big revenge setting. Fact is, they haven't been able to stop anyone else. Last four road games in the Valley they've yeilded 77, 79, 102, and 78. Not sure going into the other ISU tonight is going to help. Both teams shoot the three-ball quite a bit and neither team defends it worth a damn. Combine Indiana State's little revenge angle here with Illinois State's inability to defend on the road, and this is a nice little equation for an over. Also tough to not like Indiana State here, but the three-balls that go up tough to determine a winner here. The first meeting, Illinois State only shot 17 of them. That's their lowest attempt total unless you count the SIU game where they took the air out of the ball the 2H (and still ended up with 16).
2* Illinois State/Indiana State Over 128.5
Lean: VCU +1
Lean: James Madison +5
Lean: Kent State -4.5
Lean: Indiana State -4
GL
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