Off the system? Damn, I'm to lazy to do the work myself so I was depending on you to win games for me. Love your plays and the sy..m. Hate sy..m's and can't use that word. Gotta be a better word.
GL, Doc
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Off the system? Damn, I'm to lazy to do the work myself so I was depending on you to win games for me. Love your plays and the sy..m. Hate sy..m's and can't use that word. Gotta be a better word.
Only thing I see is Tennesse 2-9 to the Under at Home and 4-11 Under on 3+days rest.
Agreed, I like the styles and Senior Night angles more, and the fact that Tenn has been under recently gives us some nice value in a game that I really think should have opened at about 147.5
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Quote Originally Posted by VegasMaxx:
GL KP
Only thing I see is Tennesse 2-9 to the Under at Home and 4-11 Under on 3+days rest.
Agreed, I like the styles and Senior Night angles more, and the fact that Tenn has been under recently gives us some nice value in a game that I really think should have opened at about 147.5
Arkansas only averaging 69.5 on the road but give up 77. I will roll w/ you here. Senior night for Chism and company Arkansas's road conference defense is nonexitant.
Going by that logic, the score will be 77-69 and we hit our over!
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Quote Originally Posted by J Gambler:
Arkansas only averaging 69.5 on the road but give up 77. I will roll w/ you here. Senior night for Chism and company Arkansas's road conference defense is nonexitant.
Going by that logic, the score will be 77-69 and we hit our over!
KP YESTERDAY SYSTEM 180 PLAY WAS TENNESSEE TECH +9 (WINNER) THANKS FOR THE WRITE UP ON TENN/ARK O 143.5 BOL
Absolutely, I am still tracking it. There were three other games that just missed the criteria either by Kenpom ranking or spread and 2 of those 3 games covered as well
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Quote Originally Posted by capskip:
KP YESTERDAY SYSTEM 180 PLAY WAS TENNESSEE TECH +9 (WINNER) THANKS FOR THE WRITE UP ON TENN/ARK O 143.5 BOL
Absolutely, I am still tracking it. There were three other games that just missed the criteria either by Kenpom ranking or spread and 2 of those 3 games covered as well
Kine, I know you're off the system for the rest of the season but I'm riding it until she bucks me. Last night Tennessee Tech +9 @ Austin Peay (197). Tech won outright 68-65. Senior night does not seem to have a negative impact. Unfortunately doesn't look like anything fits the system tonight.
The thing I am most happy with this system is that all cappers can use the criteria of the system to pick out good games to bet. The worse the Kenpom ranking and the higher the spread should be red flags about a game (or atleast points to the right side of the game or the way you should be leaning).
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Quote Originally Posted by Gitza:
Kine, I know you're off the system for the rest of the season but I'm riding it until she bucks me. Last night Tennessee Tech +9 @ Austin Peay (197). Tech won outright 68-65. Senior night does not seem to have a negative impact. Unfortunately doesn't look like anything fits the system tonight.
The thing I am most happy with this system is that all cappers can use the criteria of the system to pick out good games to bet. The worse the Kenpom ranking and the higher the spread should be red flags about a game (or atleast points to the right side of the game or the way you should be leaning).
Like you said, you'll get the pace you need from Arkansas, but it will come down to them getting into the mid - 60s. Arkansas has the 3rd worst off. eff. in the SEC -- the only teams worse being S. Carolina and LSU and Tennessee held them to 63, 53 , and 54.
Not trying to be a contrarian, just trying to decide if I'm going to come along for the ride with the over as well.
Love the opposite viewpoints, I really looked hard at those games in particular and chalked them up to tempo, strategy (such as teams running zone or man), and the way that particular game played out.
I think of it this way, the guys from Football Outsiders have found ways to use their systems and formulas were they throw out things like 15 yard runs on the last play of the first half when the opponent was in a prevent defense. I try to do that with the box scores and play by play of previous games.
The games that were red flags in this situation didn't line up with how I see the game playing out in the least. Arkansas' games versus Vandy, Texas, and South Carolina give the best indication (IMO) of how this game will most likely play out.
I can throw out the performances against LSU (starter missing and offense totally out of sync and messed up the bench rotations), Alabama (both times) as the head coach for Alabama and Ark were assistants on Billy D's teams at Florida and they run the same offensive and defensive sets which will always effect offensive effeciency.
It's definitely not a slam dunk, but I like the value we get considering the type of atmosphere and tempo that should be played tonight. Tennessee has played a few slower games against superior opponents and now they are foaming at the mouth to run! The only way it stays under is if Ark plays horrible on offense (a possibility but they are still a top scoring team in the SEC) AND if Tennessee doesn't put up 80+ (which I expect them too). It will be fun to watch, that is for sure
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Quote Originally Posted by riccio14:
Good luck with your play, Kine
Like you said, you'll get the pace you need from Arkansas, but it will come down to them getting into the mid - 60s. Arkansas has the 3rd worst off. eff. in the SEC -- the only teams worse being S. Carolina and LSU and Tennessee held them to 63, 53 , and 54.
Not trying to be a contrarian, just trying to decide if I'm going to come along for the ride with the over as well.
Love the opposite viewpoints, I really looked hard at those games in particular and chalked them up to tempo, strategy (such as teams running zone or man), and the way that particular game played out.
I think of it this way, the guys from Football Outsiders have found ways to use their systems and formulas were they throw out things like 15 yard runs on the last play of the first half when the opponent was in a prevent defense. I try to do that with the box scores and play by play of previous games.
The games that were red flags in this situation didn't line up with how I see the game playing out in the least. Arkansas' games versus Vandy, Texas, and South Carolina give the best indication (IMO) of how this game will most likely play out.
I can throw out the performances against LSU (starter missing and offense totally out of sync and messed up the bench rotations), Alabama (both times) as the head coach for Alabama and Ark were assistants on Billy D's teams at Florida and they run the same offensive and defensive sets which will always effect offensive effeciency.
It's definitely not a slam dunk, but I like the value we get considering the type of atmosphere and tempo that should be played tonight. Tennessee has played a few slower games against superior opponents and now they are foaming at the mouth to run! The only way it stays under is if Ark plays horrible on offense (a possibility but they are still a top scoring team in the SEC) AND if Tennessee doesn't put up 80+ (which I expect them too). It will be fun to watch, that is for sure
KineProf I always enjoy your insights and thread. Could you please print your system here again. I saw it when you first posted it but would like to read it again. Thanks and continued good luck my friend. By the way I like the Tenn/Ark over. Pelphrey and Pearl's Boys will be getting up and down the floor.
Sure thing . . .
*After Feb 11th . . .
PLAY AGAINST
1. A team that is ranked 180 or worse by Kenpom.com AND 2. Is at home AND 3. Is favored by 6.5 or more
System was 26-7 from Feb 13th-20th and 6-3 the following week Feb 21th-28th
Some are still using the system even in conference tourney games (and with success I might add) but that wasn't the original intent of the system (sorry Pecador - I'm working on a new term)
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Quote Originally Posted by HamMan:
KineProf I always enjoy your insights and thread. Could you please print your system here again. I saw it when you first posted it but would like to read it again. Thanks and continued good luck my friend. By the way I like the Tenn/Ark over. Pelphrey and Pearl's Boys will be getting up and down the floor.
Sure thing . . .
*After Feb 11th . . .
PLAY AGAINST
1. A team that is ranked 180 or worse by Kenpom.com AND 2. Is at home AND 3. Is favored by 6.5 or more
System was 26-7 from Feb 13th-20th and 6-3 the following week Feb 21th-28th
Some are still using the system even in conference tourney games (and with success I might add) but that wasn't the original intent of the system (sorry Pecador - I'm working on a new term)
I don't see why everybody is playing this thing over the total especially since it is now up to 146. Somebody is probably going to have to score 80 in this game to push it over. And that somebody is likely to be Tennessee since they are a fairly large favorite. The Vol's have only scored more than 80 pts in one conference game this season and that was all the way back on Jan. 14. Also the Vol''s defense is very good they only have given up 80+ points twice in conference games. In previous seasons the Vol's played many high scoring games with the early season suspensions and dismissals as shortened the rotation and the Vol's are playing slower paced games resulting in lower scoring games which the 4-10 O/U record reflects. No way would I play this one over especially at 146.
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I don't see why everybody is playing this thing over the total especially since it is now up to 146. Somebody is probably going to have to score 80 in this game to push it over. And that somebody is likely to be Tennessee since they are a fairly large favorite. The Vol's have only scored more than 80 pts in one conference game this season and that was all the way back on Jan. 14. Also the Vol''s defense is very good they only have given up 80+ points twice in conference games. In previous seasons the Vol's played many high scoring games with the early season suspensions and dismissals as shortened the rotation and the Vol's are playing slower paced games resulting in lower scoring games which the 4-10 O/U record reflects. No way would I play this one over especially at 146.
I don't see why everybody is playing this thing over the total especially since it is now up to 146. Somebody is probably going to have to score 80 in this game to push it over. And that somebody is likely to be Tennessee since they are a fairly large favorite. The Vol's have only scored more than 80 pts in one conference game this season and that was all the way back on Jan. 14. Also the Vol''s defense is very good they only have given up 80+ points twice in conference games. In previous seasons the Vol's played many high scoring games with the early season suspensions and dismissals as shortened the rotation and the Vol's are playing slower paced games resulting in lower scoring games which the 4-10 O/U record reflects. No way would I play this one over especially at 146.
1. Everyone is not playing this game, mine is the only thread on covers that I have even seen playing this game.
2. Nobody has said they are betting it at 146, this whole thread is about 143.5
3. The point of this thread is to mention that the conference scores you are talking about give this game value as these two teams haven't played and when Tenn played a team with a similar style to Ark (after the suspensions mind you), both games were played to a 161 final total. Games against LSU, Florida, and Alabama have no real relevance in this discussion as these are teams that play a completely different pace and style than Arkansas.
4. Also, it is no accomplishment to not give up 80 in the SEC conference, numerous teams play a slower tempo and more deliberate offenses. The 4/10 over-under record is indicative of WHO Tennessee plays, not what THIS total should be.
5. The point was that Tenn (who averages 80+ at home) could easily put up that number or more in this game. Also, these teams have a history of high scoring games going back to their games from 2007 until now.
6. I always appreciate a different opinion and I hope other people see things the way you do, or there would be noone on Matchbook willing to bet with me.
7. This thread is in no way trying to talk you into a bet, just wanted to point out the facts and what the matchups dictate. I will be here to discuss the game win or lose later. And I have been wrong 27 times before (just thankfully I have been right many more times than that )
Good luck with your plays.
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Quote Originally Posted by Travis77:
I don't see why everybody is playing this thing over the total especially since it is now up to 146. Somebody is probably going to have to score 80 in this game to push it over. And that somebody is likely to be Tennessee since they are a fairly large favorite. The Vol's have only scored more than 80 pts in one conference game this season and that was all the way back on Jan. 14. Also the Vol''s defense is very good they only have given up 80+ points twice in conference games. In previous seasons the Vol's played many high scoring games with the early season suspensions and dismissals as shortened the rotation and the Vol's are playing slower paced games resulting in lower scoring games which the 4-10 O/U record reflects. No way would I play this one over especially at 146.
1. Everyone is not playing this game, mine is the only thread on covers that I have even seen playing this game.
2. Nobody has said they are betting it at 146, this whole thread is about 143.5
3. The point of this thread is to mention that the conference scores you are talking about give this game value as these two teams haven't played and when Tenn played a team with a similar style to Ark (after the suspensions mind you), both games were played to a 161 final total. Games against LSU, Florida, and Alabama have no real relevance in this discussion as these are teams that play a completely different pace and style than Arkansas.
4. Also, it is no accomplishment to not give up 80 in the SEC conference, numerous teams play a slower tempo and more deliberate offenses. The 4/10 over-under record is indicative of WHO Tennessee plays, not what THIS total should be.
5. The point was that Tenn (who averages 80+ at home) could easily put up that number or more in this game. Also, these teams have a history of high scoring games going back to their games from 2007 until now.
6. I always appreciate a different opinion and I hope other people see things the way you do, or there would be noone on Matchbook willing to bet with me.
7. This thread is in no way trying to talk you into a bet, just wanted to point out the facts and what the matchups dictate. I will be here to discuss the game win or lose later. And I have been wrong 27 times before (just thankfully I have been right many more times than that )
Sometimes peple think the rich Texan like you and I and all the other rich Texans on the covers make a dent in the Vegas line with our $10,000 bets. I don't think think so. What about you??
Excuse me, gotta throw down $20,000 on a MMA fight.
GL, Doc
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Sometimes peple think the rich Texan like you and I and all the other rich Texans on the covers make a dent in the Vegas line with our $10,000 bets. I don't think think so. What about you??
Excuse me, gotta throw down $20,000 on a MMA fight.
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