Posted:
#1
YTD 42-27 1-0 (3-unit plays) +18 units
Well, I found a total that I thought was about 5 points off, so as I always do, I tried to find a reason not to play it. After studying the game for over two hours, I just can't talk myself out of this play. I will be on Tenn/Ark OVER 143.5. Here are a few reasons why I like this play:
* The Tennessee players have already been quoted as saying they can't wait to play this game as Arkansas plays a very similar style and they expect to have a high-scoring up and down basketball game. This is a great angle as often times this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy for the game.
* Its Senior Night and I expect the building to be electric and players to be sky high and ready for this game with Arkansas.
* Tennessee averages over 80 a game at home (and this is against teams with slower tempos and better defenses than Arkansas brings to the table). Arkansas gives up on average over 77 a game on the road themselves.
* Arkansas has played to the over in 6 of their last 7 games (the one that was under was to the snail-paced LSU tigers and Ark was without one of their starters)
* In three of their last four times these teams have met, atleast one of the teams have broken 80 (once one team broke 90 and once they both broke 90).
* Courtney Fortson has not been himself lately in the last three games (even with him playing poorly the over hit in two of those three games) and his head coach wants him to be aggressive and get back to the line more and get his teammates some open 3 looks, I think he gets up for this game and plays well in a game that should fit his style and pace of play well.
* Bruce Pearl has already mentioned that he won't be able to play zone like he did against Kentucky as Arkansas shoots too well from the outside and he expects to play lots of man and isn't crazy about how they matchup on the perimeter. And being Senior Night and given the history of these two teams last four matchups (including Arkansas beating Tenn in the SEC semis a few years back keeping them from a number 1 seed), I expect no letdowns here - just an exciting basketball game.
* These are two of the highest scoring teams in the SEC, who both shoot over 45% for the season and Arkansas has been giving up almost 50% from the field in their last five games.
* The other team in the SEC that plays a similar style of offense to Arkansas is Vanderbilt. Kentucky has played Vanderbilt twice this year and here are the scores: Vandy 85-76 (total of 161 - over by 14 points) and Vandy 90-71 (total of 161 - over by 14 points). The awesome news is Arkansas is not nearly as good as Vandy is on defense.
* Although the under has hit in 7 of the last 10 Tennessee games, their totals were fairly high and the opponents either played a slower tempo and were much better on defense (or both) teams such as: florida, georgia, south carolina, kentucky, and lsu.
The only way I see this game going under is if Arkansas shoots very poorly early and just gets the doors blown off them in the first half of the ball game. I truly believe this senior laden team wants to got out with a bang and just run up and down the floor with razorbacks. I have already seen that there are some that think this is a "letdown" game and I actually hope it is (but doubt it will be) and if so the "letdown" will certainly be on defense. If there is a letdown and the game is close, then we will definitely see plenty of free throws to help us over backs. I see both teams able to reach the 70's in this game, but even if Tenn just reaches is normally 80ish at home, all me need is Ark to pitch in 64 and we cash the ticket, certainly not to much to ask in a game that should have 72+ possessions and an opponent who averages over 75 ppg.
There are just two many ways this game can go over and there is a lot of value in this current number (which I feel should certainly go up closer to game time). I rarely bet over a unit, but I have already locked in 1.5 units and am sleeping on the notion of adding a bit more in the morning if the total hasn't moved.
Good luck with whatever you choose
1.5-units on OVER 143.5 Tenn/Ark on Matchbook
Well, I found a total that I thought was about 5 points off, so as I always do, I tried to find a reason not to play it. After studying the game for over two hours, I just can't talk myself out of this play. I will be on Tenn/Ark OVER 143.5. Here are a few reasons why I like this play:
* The Tennessee players have already been quoted as saying they can't wait to play this game as Arkansas plays a very similar style and they expect to have a high-scoring up and down basketball game. This is a great angle as often times this becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy for the game.
* Its Senior Night and I expect the building to be electric and players to be sky high and ready for this game with Arkansas.
* Tennessee averages over 80 a game at home (and this is against teams with slower tempos and better defenses than Arkansas brings to the table). Arkansas gives up on average over 77 a game on the road themselves.
* Arkansas has played to the over in 6 of their last 7 games (the one that was under was to the snail-paced LSU tigers and Ark was without one of their starters)
* In three of their last four times these teams have met, atleast one of the teams have broken 80 (once one team broke 90 and once they both broke 90).
* Courtney Fortson has not been himself lately in the last three games (even with him playing poorly the over hit in two of those three games) and his head coach wants him to be aggressive and get back to the line more and get his teammates some open 3 looks, I think he gets up for this game and plays well in a game that should fit his style and pace of play well.
* Bruce Pearl has already mentioned that he won't be able to play zone like he did against Kentucky as Arkansas shoots too well from the outside and he expects to play lots of man and isn't crazy about how they matchup on the perimeter. And being Senior Night and given the history of these two teams last four matchups (including Arkansas beating Tenn in the SEC semis a few years back keeping them from a number 1 seed), I expect no letdowns here - just an exciting basketball game.
* These are two of the highest scoring teams in the SEC, who both shoot over 45% for the season and Arkansas has been giving up almost 50% from the field in their last five games.
* The other team in the SEC that plays a similar style of offense to Arkansas is Vanderbilt. Kentucky has played Vanderbilt twice this year and here are the scores: Vandy 85-76 (total of 161 - over by 14 points) and Vandy 90-71 (total of 161 - over by 14 points). The awesome news is Arkansas is not nearly as good as Vandy is on defense.
* Although the under has hit in 7 of the last 10 Tennessee games, their totals were fairly high and the opponents either played a slower tempo and were much better on defense (or both) teams such as: florida, georgia, south carolina, kentucky, and lsu.
The only way I see this game going under is if Arkansas shoots very poorly early and just gets the doors blown off them in the first half of the ball game. I truly believe this senior laden team wants to got out with a bang and just run up and down the floor with razorbacks. I have already seen that there are some that think this is a "letdown" game and I actually hope it is (but doubt it will be) and if so the "letdown" will certainly be on defense. If there is a letdown and the game is close, then we will definitely see plenty of free throws to help us over backs. I see both teams able to reach the 70's in this game, but even if Tenn just reaches is normally 80ish at home, all me need is Ark to pitch in 64 and we cash the ticket, certainly not to much to ask in a game that should have 72+ possessions and an opponent who averages over 75 ppg.
There are just two many ways this game can go over and there is a lot of value in this current number (which I feel should certainly go up closer to game time). I rarely bet over a unit, but I have already locked in 1.5 units and am sleeping on the notion of adding a bit more in the morning if the total hasn't moved.
Good luck with whatever you choose
1.5-units on OVER 143.5 Tenn/Ark on Matchbook
0
nice info KP, now i gotta look into it myself
Hot Forum Topics
