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Posted: #1
YTD: 2-1 +1.1 units

I'm giving my last finals tomorrow so I'm hoping to be able to post a little more regularly now.  Hoping to continue building on my best start of the ncaa hoops to date.  If you have sent me a PM, I'll start wading through them again on Thursday, very sorry for the delay.  I'm on Wofford/Tulane over 122.5 and very quickly here are a few reasons why:

Kenpom has Tulane's defense ranked 50th in the country in efficiency (they give up less than 60ppg):  Here is why - they have played the 345th (out of 345 teams) EASIEST out of conference schedule in the country in terms of their opponent's offense efficiency.  Repeat - there is no team in the country who has played against worst offenses than Tulane this season.  One could argue that this is the best offense they have played this season (and certainly their toughest road opponent to be sure).  Also, I always like the angle of backing the over after playing a slow tempo tough defensive opponent.  We have that here as Tulane is just coming off a slow slugfest with Georgia Tech.  Wofford's defense will look much softer by comparison. 

Tulane also shoots a healthy percentage from 3-pt land and gets to the line well above the national average and shoots them at over 70% to boot.  Tulane has also pressed more than expected and now that the competition is getting better I expect them to give up more easy baskets than in their first 9 games.

Wofford, on the other hand, has been struggling offensively, but since coming home for their first homestand of the season, they have scored 69 and 82 respectively (and in only 63 possessions each game) and are starting to develop a rhythm and identity on offense.  Wofford's offensive struggles can also be explained by playing some tough defensive opponents.  They played Georgia (#44), Wisconsin (#1), and Bradley and Davidson aren't defensive scrubs either.  There other two poor offensive performance came at a neutral site with the second game of the back-to-back coming less than 24 hours after an overtime game. 

Also, both teams have healthy assist to turnover ratios which is a solid angle for over.  Neither team turns the ball over much (both well below the national average) and Wofford is excellent at generating steals and tulane is susceptible to the steal (even though they don't turn it over much, when they do, its via the steal.  Steals, of course, leads to easy baskets as opposed to regular turnovers like charges and throwing ball out of bounds which are under helpers). 

Vegas has this game pegged as a 3-pt spread so late game foul shooting could come into play as well.  As for a side I like Wofford as well and might have a play on them too after more study but I am just having a VERY hard time seeing anyway this game doesn't get into the 60's which would be an easy over.  Good luck with whatever you decide. 

1-unit (for now) on over 122.5 Wofford/Tulane
 
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Posted: #2
ty bol 
 
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Posted: #3
GL luck, I have a lean on the Over also in this game
 
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Posted: #4
bol buddy 
 
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Posted: #5
nice write up, BOL 
 
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Posted: #6
Great write up GL
 
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Posted: #7



Nice write up KP

With you on this one.  And I like Wofford too.
 
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Posted: #8
BOL
 
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Posted: #9

Good to see you again, KP. GL with the play.

 
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Posted: #10
I work at Wofford and just went out to see Tulanes early morning shoot around.  I've been waiting for a good spot to fade Wofford this season and I think this game is an ideal spot after covering against Davidson and Citidal.  Davidson is by far the game that Wofford players get up for the most all season and the biggest crowd they will draw, a pitiful 1,400.  Wofford lost 6 of their best players from last year and has little depth inside.  The one thing I noticed about Davidson was that they didn't have a lot of size or strength inside and I think that played to Woffords advantage.  Just by taking a quick glance at some of Tulanes players I think this game will be won in the post.  

I definitely like your over play, but would probably lean Tulane in this spot -3.  The crowd will be a non factor in this game.  
 
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Posted: #11

I like this afterreading the write up, good research!

 
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Posted: #12
Nice write up


 
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Posted: #13
tcrouch great write up im n greenville and will b heading to the game just to c what the greenwave have i was thinkn that wofford wouldnt b big enough to stay n the game and i luv the over as tulane shots the ball good and usually wofford does at home
 
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Posted: #14

Glad to see you are back KP.  Great insight on the game and I look forward to seeing you on here more often.

 
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Posted: #15

Always enjoy your stuff.

 
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Posted: #16
 
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Posted: #17

Had this one circled, love the play. Thanks Kine

 
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Posted: #18
Already up to 125.5 at 5 dimes.
 
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Posted: #19
k.p. g/l
 
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Posted: #20
Excellent stuff KP...you sold me!
 
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Posted: #21
WOW, my line for the O/U is up to 125.5... probably going to pass. Thanks for the tip... Hope u hit KP!
 
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Posted: #22
KP you still like it at 125.5?
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by tcrouch:

I work at Wofford and just went out to see Tulanes early morning shoot around.  I've been waiting for a good spot to fade Wofford this season and I think this game is an ideal spot after covering against Davidson and Citidal.  Davidson is by far the game that Wofford players get up for the most all season and the biggest crowd they will draw, a pitiful 1,400.  Wofford lost 6 of their best players from last year and has little depth inside.  The one thing I noticed about Davidson was that they didn't have a lot of size or strength inside and I think that played to Woffords advantage.  Just by taking a quick glance at some of Tulanes players I think this game will be won in the post.  

I definitely like your over play, but would probably lean Tulane in this spot -3.  The crowd will be a non factor in this game.  


Thank you for your post, please don't be offended that I completely disagree.  Here is why I disagree:

When you use the term "waiting for a chance to fade" it implies there is some inherent "overvaluing" of a team where a line would be inflated based on past performance.  This isn't the case with this game. 

The clearly overvalued team is Tulane, a team that was 13-17 last season and 3-13 in conference.  A team that had ONE victory on the road over a team in Kenpom's TOP 337 teams last year!  A team that now is 9-0 only because they have LITERALLY played the easiest schedule in the entire country this season.  They are coming off their "super bowl" last game against georgia tech and am now facing their first road test of the entire season.  The fact that they opened as a three point road favorite is hilarious.  This, by definition, isn't a good opportunity to fade Wofford as they are the clearly undervalued team here.

Next, to your post play point.  Tulane is ranked 239 (out of 345 teams) in effective height.  Please remember that these stats were compiled against the worst schedule in the country.  Effective height is defined by defensive stats such as block percentage, defensive efficiency and a few other stats.  As to the offense, Tulane scores BY FAR its fewest points through 2-pt baskets.  Their highest percentage of points come from 3's, their next highest comes from free throws (and their post players average only 7 combined attempts per game) so the majority of their free throws come from their guards.  The lowest percentage of points come from 2-pt baskets.  Tulane is also in the bottom 150 teams in offensive rebounding to boot.  Tulane might well win this game and cover but a statistical analysis of the numbers indicate that it is VERY unlikely that it will be because of post play.

Again, Tulane could certainly cover this game, anything can happen - but you are getting the worse of the line and laying 3 on the road is "negative" value to be sure. 
 
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Posted: #24
Amazing info KP.  Thanks.  over 125.5 is my play
 
 
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Posted: #25
up to 127 on 5d
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