Posted:
#26
Why are you shooting yourself in the foot?
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TENNESSEE @ LSU: Like the Samuri disembowling himself with honor,I must make one more bet: All of it
Posted:
#31
Friends above. If you are with me, I tried to do everything I can to get this one to cash. I hope it does.It is already in Porcelain. I've played in poker tournaments. 95% percent of people get eliminated in one way: chip bleeding. They sit there the entire night in hope of getting AA or KK and it never comes. And before you know it they have 10 big blinds and they are pushing all in with QJ offshore, a hand they scoffed at hours before.
This isn't about money, it's about an answer. And if I get it in one regard, I'll leave for now because I have no money. Probably will come back in several months with a new roll, which isn't a problem at all. This is a hobby for me but even so, it takes a significant amount of my life to cap and watch games. That is the biggest price paid for losing, the money and the stress. This will be an answer to direct my energies somewhere else for now if it goes awry. If not? It's a nice step towards a respectable roll amount. Both things have their positives.
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Posted:
#32
Point being about the chip bleeding: These other bets seem to be bleeding my roll here. I was beside myself that I switched sides on that Iona game. It's like I sought out a loser when I had the winner. I've done that before as we all have but not with such a crucial bet and several MONTHS of following the Maac to make it.
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Posted:
#36
Like the pick in their final home game ! The good news is with LSU losing by 2 in it's last game vs GA it shows they haven't quit. That, along with their problem being their defense and not their offense should allow them to remain close tonight, and hopefully win outright while putting Tenn out of their being on the bubble misery. GL Scal !
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Posted:
#37
I should have known you were a Trump hating girlie-man liberal. Only such a creature would vow to leave if they lost a bet and then return only days later with an even worse play.
You deserve the misery you find yourself in, and your downward spiral will only continue.
BTW- I contributed much to Trump's campaign, and my contributions were paid for with my +350 bet on Trump to win the presidency. Your money went to a good cause.
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Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by KC_4_LIFE:
Anyone else find this odd? He knew the play
That is a good one...and his avatar is a picture of the Wynn to boot!
Well, Scal, that was an entertaining read. 
I don't really know what to say about the play, but GL.
But, you have to realize that you are channeling your inner CG...speculation for money can put anyone on tilt. A few years back I watched a guy that I used to trade futures with burn through 25k in 6 sessions. 15k of it was on his last trade, aggressively adding to a losing position. Albeit on a minute scale in comparison, but the movie Rogue Trader pretty much summed it up......he got over extended and then lightning struck.
I think that win or lose you need to walk. If you win you will have the "taste" for reckless abandon....if you lose, after the dust clears, you will look back on this as a tremendous waste of money...when you return every win will go towards paying off this loss. Psychologically, that may be tough to recover from...unless you are just having fun with it and not trying to actually profit.
In sports gambling you simply cannot afford to waste money....it is hard enough as it is.
So, now you are quoting psychics, disrespecting your bankroll, and going on tilt....all after harshly criticizing CG last spring. I almost feel bad for giving you sh!t after Trump's victory.....
In any case, best of luck with your pick and I hope you walk away with that $3648 in your account. But, big picture, what's the point?
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:
That is a good one...and his avatar is a picture of the Wynn to boot!
Well, Scal, that was an entertaining read.
I don't really know what to say about the play, but GL.
But, you have to realize that you are channeling your inner CG...speculation for money can put anyone on tilt. A few years back I watched a guy that I used to trade futures with burn through 25k in 6 sessions. 15k of it was on his last trade, aggressively adding to a losing position. Albeit on a minute scale in comparison, but the movie Rogue Trader pretty much summed it up......he got over extended and then lightning struck.
I think that win or lose you need to walk. If you win you will have the "taste" for reckless abandon....if you lose, after the dust clears, you will look back on this as a tremendous waste of money...when you return every win will go towards paying off this loss. Psychologically, that may be tough to recover from...unless you are just having fun with it and not trying to actually profit.
In sports gambling you simply cannot afford to waste money....it is hard enough as it is.
So, now you are quoting psychics, disrespecting your bankroll, and going on tilt....all after harshly criticizing CG last spring. I almost feel bad for giving you sh!t after Trump's victory.....
In any case, best of luck with your pick and I hope you walk away with that $3648 in your account. But, big picture, what's the point?
It's not 30 grand of 401k money.
That's life changing. This is one month's mortgage payment. And I wouldn't cash it out and use it on that anyway.
And if I win, it's just getting the roll to a respectable figure (in my eyes and that's different for everyone).
But right now it's more about being a sign to walk away until maybe college football and I'll deposit a bit here and there to regroup. Or I'll stick around.
I do believe in signs. This will be one of a loss. And a different one if a win.
Winston Kvs Dan
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Posted:
#40
Hi Scal,
Things I like about you:
1. You are selective
2. You are contrarian
3. You are thoughtful
4. You are detailed
5. You don't tilt (that being said maybe you do now)
Things I am confused about:
1. Why do you care about trolls? Is there more excitement in "fighting" with Internet no-names than winning REAL money
2. Who such anger and scorn after a losing pick or against those that disagree. (Mark Zuckerberg always stresses the importance of understanding/accepting/incorporating criticism).
Let's say you are truly a 70% handicapper, a 60% handicapper, or a 55% handicapper. (My guess is closer to 53-55% but idk).
* the probability of going 3 or less in 13 plays at true 70% skills is .00065196
* the probability of going 3 or less in 13 plays at true 60% skills is .00779301
* the probability of going 3 or less in 13 plays at true 55% skills is .020341846
So - it's not like a one in billion occurrence. It ranges from 1/1500 (for the 70% skills) to 1/50 (for the 55% skills).
BIG DEAL. I see these things every day in poker hands and in the markets.
William Poundstone wrote a book "Fortune's Formula" - talks about using Kelly Criterion (or 1/2 Kelly, etc) to help with bet sizing. You should read it - will help you think more judicially about bank roll management.
(Iona CLOSED at +3.5 - so tons of "sharp" money came in on Monmouth later in day. It is prudent to think and understand opposite views).
If $2k is total bankroll - why spend so much time capping games. The edge is let's not that much from $ view if you are somewhere between 55-70% capper. I play in poker games where hands are always above that and where wins are many multiples of that (or losses). Again, no idea why so much disdain not to sit down and talk. (Why do I want to talk - b/c of the 5 things I started with in message - those are RARE RARE qualities in a gambler/investor/poker player).
Anyways, good luck. I always follow your plays - but I am a TENN fan this year - and think this could be statement game for them too - before the conference tourney- and arguably they are on tourney bubble (KP has them at 55) - so they need some statement games too. Good luck.
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Posted:
#43
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
It's not 30 grand of 401k money.
That's life changing. This is one month's mortgage payment. And I wouldn't cash it out and use it on that anyway.
And if I win, it's just getting the roll to a respectable figure (in my eyes and that's different for everyone).
But right now it's more about being a sign to walk away until maybe college football and I'll deposit a bit here and there to regroup. Or I'll stick around.
I do believe in signs. This will be one of a loss. And a different one if a win.
Winston Kvs Dan
That is where I disagree. It is your money, and more importantly your time.
This is what I am talking about.....the sum of the money makes the risk, and worst case scenario, the loss, somehow acceptable. 
The 30 grand didn't mean much to CG...he justified the huge risks as being his to take because he won the money through betting on football in the first place.
And now...ughh....I guarantee that guy is DYING to lay a 5k bomb.....
As soon as the money loses any sort of meaning, it is over. We have all been there......tilted and aggressive.
Why is it in human nature to get aggressive when we are LOSING???? It is counter-intuitive and a fascinating point that 95% of us gamblers practice religiously...
I may even tail this pick (0-2 for 2017) for kicks....but, after reading you preach to others about tilt and reckless money management, I feel the need to point out that this is sloppy, ill warranted, and more than likely a donation to Tony at 5dimes.
And, for the record, I hope everybody cashes their tickets.....the guys that book our action are shady at best, corporate stiffs at worst.....the bettor can use that money much more than the books.
Never Make A Winner A Loser. Never.
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Posted:
#45
You stand a chance of cashing your ticket. I live in Louisiana, and I can tell you that LSU has not quit, but every game they must overcome one of the worse coaches in the NCAA. I think if anything Tennessee may have given up to a point ,but I hope you realize you're betting on a team that is 1-15 in SEC play. I am a LSU fan, & that being the case I hope you cash that ticket. I'm just glad it's yours instead of mine.
pollockanesian
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Posted:
#46
Kvs,
You're a smart guy. That is insightful commentary and I understand the concept you are relaying (being a poker player, even more so).
I want to stress, this is not a tilt. This is for an answer. The worst thing I can do is lose my money AND others money which has happened with the above record. It is unacceptable. I'm following games for a year and switching picks. I'm following teams like Albany Great Danes for a month and a half with a pretty substantial angle (one of the biggest runs to end a game and lose without scoring a point) and it's losing. These angles are typically golden. To see them fail 13 out of 16 times? Something is wrong with me. And I am forcing my hand to find it. Because if I have no money in the account I can't post here. I will find out what it is, amass some wins personally and come back. But this must end tonight. And maybe a sign will be appropriate. And maybe this has nothing to do with my long-term capping or a psychic and I'm just overlooking a team that has enough to play for to cover 6.
But the only way I will get an answer is to use, as you referenced, the contrarian capping method (where appropriate because it does not always work, as evidenced by Vegas losing big certain months this year in the NFL). And I have used it here. And we will see if it loses. Because 6 points is not chump change. I'd like 10 but I get home court, just like the Browns.
LSU was down 17 to UGA and climbed all the way back to lose brutally at the buzzer.
Demoralizing losses do scare me (see the Ray Allen 3 against the Spurs and the subsequent Game 7). I had a long discussion with MrBator on that one. He said the series was over after game 6. It was over. I didn't accept that. It may be over here too for now.
Why do I go after trolls? Because I can Hagler/Hearns them insult for insult. It's just a talent I have and I think it's necessary at times. And why do I care so much with these amounts? Because I love to cap. It's something I love. It's something in my life outside of my relationships (which are infinitely more important) that brings me joy. And I have a long-standing beef with the house given the way they let us FREELY choose to gamble on games where we cannot win over the long-term (slots) but they shamelessly take every penny without retribution or regret. And in a small way, I love to being an opposing power against that.
Thank you for the compliments. I appreciate all your offers and don't think you are ever getting blown off but tonight, I need a winner... or a sign.
I appreciate all your offers and don't think you are ever getting blown off but tonight, I need a winner... or a sign.Sj and tailgate, I understand laying off. It's fine. But I expect more than Iona gave over 40 minutes and if that occurs they'll cover (Iona lost by 6).
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Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by bigvern1013:
That is where I disagree. It is your money, and more importantly your time.
This is what I am talking about.....the sum of the money makes the risk, and worst case scenario, the loss, somehow acceptable.
The 30 grand didn't mean much to CG...he justified the huge risks as being his to take because he won the money through betting on football in the first place.
And now...ughh....I guarantee that guy is DYING to lay a 5k bomb.....
As soon as the money loses any sort of meaning, it is over. We have all been there......tilted and aggressive.
Why is it in human nature to get aggressive when we are LOSING???? It is counter-intuitive and a fascinating point that 95% of us gamblers practice religiously...
I may even tail this pick (0-2 for 2017) for kicks....but, after reading you preach to others about tilt and reckless money management, I feel the need to point out that this is sloppy, ill warranted, and more than likely a donation to Tony at 5dimes.
And, for the record, I hope everybody cashes their tickets.....the guys that book our action are shady at best, corporate stiffs at worst.....the bettor can use that money much more than the books.
A good speech on bankroll management
But I may be receiving a sign. And this is how to get it. And 1.9k vs. 30k matters. I NEVER allow gambling to hurt me financially in any way. 1.9k is nice. Very nice. But if I lose, it won't stop me from paying a single bill or grocery shopping or entertaining myself. There's a big difference there compared to what CG did which is on the level of what Mike McDermott did in Rounders.
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Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by KC_4_LIFE:
If you want to win with scal's play then put it in a 8 point teaser. I used his angle on Iona and teased it. Easy $
If you want to win with scal's play then put it in a 8 point teaser. I used his angle on Iona and teased it. Easy $
I play 8 point teasers. They are great. I need 10 teaners. In fact 5Dimes allows teaser with one loss in them too. With a reduced payout of course.
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Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by cheeser:
You stand a chance of cashing your ticket. I live in Louisiana, and I can tell you that LSU has not quit, but every game they must overcome one of the worse coaches in the NCAA. I think if anything Tennessee may have given up to a point ,but I hope you realize you're betting on a team that is 1-15 in SEC play. I am a LSU fan, & that being the case I hope you cash that ticket. I'm just glad it's yours instead of mine.
You stand a chance of cashing your ticket. I live in Louisiana, and I can tell you that LSU has not quit, but every game they must overcome one of the worse coaches in the NCAA. I think if anything Tennessee may have given up to a point ,but I hope you realize you're betting on a team that is 1-15 in SEC play. I am a LSU fan, & that being the case I hope you cash that ticket. I'm just glad it's yours instead of mine.
I like to hear this. Thanks I also believe they have not given up.
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Posted:
#50
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Words to live by in the gambling world. I am the same and use the same approach I NEVER allow gambling to hurt me financially in any way. 1.9k is nice. Very nice. But if I lose, it won't stop me from paying a single bill or grocery shopping or entertaining myself.
Won't touch the game tonight as don't like either side at all. Good luck with your play
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
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