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Starting up the ole W/L streak system from last year,,,week #2

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Posted: #201
Thanks OCCY, preciate the input.

Morning Bob.  I'm trying to decipher San Fran/BYU right now.  Will have a writeup soon.

Remember, the research says that 3-0 teams are a good bet to CONTINUE winning, so I will include them in my analysis for today big card.
 
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Posted: #202
Damn, I hate going to the next page as people will most likely miss the writeups on the PAGE 8. 
 
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Posted: #203
I like San Fran:  here's why:

They have played a much harder schedule(77th); against teams that are quite skilled offensively - partially explains their horrible defensive numbers.  BYU has played a cupcake schedule (251) against BAD defensive clubs which partially explains the awesome numbers of the offense.

San Fran shoots well from the line and gets there quite a bit.  BYU main defensive weakness is allowing people people to get to the line.

BYU will win the turnover battle as they take care of the rock, but it won't be huge.  Rebounding should be somewhat even as San Fran  has also been hitting the offensive glass pretty well. 

If you go by efficiency from kenpom alone, you end up with 79-65, but with the factors above it looks like more of a 9-11 pt game.  I'll take 19.
 
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Posted: #204
Also, SF is home against SJSt next time and is likely to cover there if they miss today.
 
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Posted: #205
Guys a lot of information on page 8
 
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Posted: #206
VCU +1 at W+M

W+M have been shooting a ridiculous 41.3 % from 3, and have played a difficult schedule.  However, VCU is currently the best team in the nation at defending the 3.  If successful today, they win easily as TO and rebounds appear even.  I'll Take VCU to end W+M's streak here.
 
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Posted: #207

lets cover the early plays,,my thoughts,,

 

Vcu will cover and W&M will fail

NC Wilm i believe will continue to 5-0,,,,

Monroe will continue at 3-0

RI will continue at 3-0

St bonny is due to not cover BUTTTTTTTTTTTTT +12 can they move to 6-0 and burn the books again,,looks like they may

I like Samford to continue but not a system play ,,early play

Geo South will continue  at 3-0

3-0 teams are 18-14 to cover so far

thats it for early games for me

 

 
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Posted: #208
Looks to me like NC wilm will continue their winning ways ATS vs Mason today.  They shoot the three really well and Mason can'tr defen it - not a winning formula for Mason.  NC Wilm or NP for me.  The line looks like Mason is better.  money looks even.
 
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Posted: #209

Back from CASINO,,boy this RODEO has entire town screwed up no parking and so much hose shit,,,,

Well  played all early games as posted ,,,thinking Bonny could extend its winning ways and that ML looks pretty good at +700 just as Sac St did last time out,,,,,,

 
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Posted: #210

Bob, my guy capped 26 games. @ hit your sysytem.

Santa Clara +8, home team with too many points

Weber St -6.5, not a strong play, but #s say Weber

My bets today: Rutgers -1; Cinci. Pk; E. Car. +1.5; ARZ +7; Hawaii +11.5; Clem Pk; James M Pk; N. Texas +1; Geo Tech -12.5; Delaware +21; S. Miss +16; Charlotte +18; Cen Mich +15

And your system plays: New Mex ST.+17;  Santa Clara +8;  Weber St -6.5

 
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Posted: #211

Bob, my guy capped 26 games. @ hit your sysytem.

Shoud have said & 2 hit your system

 
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Posted: #212
Sorry first 6 bets CFootball
 
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Posted: #213

zmas,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Have 3 ML plays   gutt feeling

Against sys St Bonny + 700,,,,had to do it

Iowa st +330 vs cal

East Ill,+260 vs Peay

there should be at least 10/12 + ML plays today ,,,,,,,

 
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Posted: #214
ryan thanks for offer but were doing well here alone,,,,,,,,,
 
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Posted: #215
VCU 74-74 3 sec left
 
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Posted: #216
Willian & Mary,,,,,,,,now ,5-0,,,,,
 
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Posted: #217
gollienebob, you thinking george mason, seems like NC will fits the system, from what i've read, and from what i remember from last season. Can you please answer my question? Thanks
 
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Posted: #218
?
 
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Posted: #219

NC Wilmington,,,,,4-0, SYS  says ,,,,,,,, due to not cover against Mason,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,BOL how you play it,,,,,,,,,,,,

 W&M  4-0 was not to cover but did,,now 5-0,,,,,

SYS record so far

0-1

 
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Posted: #220
I locked in Weber St at -6.5 - conflicting numbers but it may go to -7.

I also locked in NmexST as it went to -16.5 in some places - I got it at +17

On VCU 1u
On Prov 1u

Bailing on the rest of three win teams

Waiting on Elon and San Fran.  I would love to tease these two, with UconnNCAAF (I dont see Sfl competing in the snow and freezing temperatures in CT today.)


 
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Posted: #221
I played Miss St.
VCU  W+M hit 38.5% of there 3's.  The difference.
Providence (kinda reversed myself there but it worked out)
 
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Posted: #222
Elon has moved to 7.5/7 at places with a majority of the BETS (not necessarily the money, on Chatt.  I am still undecided - what are you gonna do bout them Bob?
 
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Posted: #223
I put a bit on Elon, then I teased it with UCONN and Santa Clara.  It is a real snow storm and should be 24 degrees and 13 mph.  I would say under but defense in this game is questionable even with both teams running b/c they dont trust their QB's.  Just think USF will struggle in these conditions more than UCONN.

Weber -6.5 13 U
Elon +8 1u (6units teased)
SF 10u
NMex st 12u
Santa Clara +8 1u

UCONN FB 10u

Wish us all luck
 
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Posted: #224

Saturday plays ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,must be +4 or -4 or higher,,,,

Winning teams to not cover,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

7-0 New Mexico to not cover

6-0 Sac st to not cover

5-0 St Bonny to not cover

4-0 Mizz St to not cover

4-0 W&M to not cover

4-0 NC Wilmington to not cover

4-0 Coast Carol to not cover if offered

4-0 UNLV to not cover

Losing Teams to Cover,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

0-6 Elon

0-5 San Fran

0-4 Bowling Green

O-4 N Mex St

0-4 Old Dom

long way to go boys,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Just finished Sundays plays,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Clemson 0-4 to cover

W Kentucky 0-5 needs to cover,,another ELON

4-0 Nova to not cover,,play MD

since only 3 plays,,,system leans

St Joes at 0-3 vs cornell at 3-0

Creighton 0-3

SD at 0-3

Washington 0-3 vs 3-0 Cal Northridge

 see you in the AM

 

 
 
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Posted: #225
Nice job on Weber St/ Santa Clara/ Elon
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