Starting up the ole W/L streak system from last year,,,week #2

yes sac st is 6-0,,,,,, yes they lost first game ,,,,,,but 6-0 now were only doing W Streaks and L streaks,,,,, overall yes 6-1

Oh OK sorry Bob, I didn't read through the whole thread. Apologies!

kapo,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,no problem as i do make mistakes and thank you

Bob,

What I am posting is if it was a win for the system:

At 5-0, 1 team lost (thus we won), 2 teams have continued winning, thus 1-2

Bandos

Bob - double check these:

Fl 4-0 vs Jax 0-1 (there was a line last time they played) jacksonville is 0-5 SU.do not think will be offered
Nova 4-0 at maryland 1-0,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Playing12/6
Missou St 4-0  vs Air force - no lined games yet.,,,Agree

Only MD looks immediately appealing.,,,,,,,,sunday play

Bob,

What I am posting is if it was a win for the system:

At 5-0, 1 team lost (thus we won), 2 teams have continued winning, thus 1-2

Correction

Posted as ,,,

Mizz St 3-0 vs Air Force ( make sure right MIZZ)

Should be

Mizz St 4-0 vs Air Force ( make sure right MIZZ)

so this is a system play,,thnx bandos ,,,Plz chk my saturday system plays

 

 

i just finished Sunday for exception of a few playing today or saturday,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I really like a lot of these plays today that i elaborated on,,,,i may need to parlay a few of these,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Good work GENTS!!!

For tonight would Akron be our play since Tex A&M is 4-0 ATS vs Akron who is 1-3 ATS.....system play would be Akron + the pts....

The system says play akron yes, but I have to admit I went the other way.  I think there are variables that we have to consider:

1. The object of this system is to identify when a team is being overvalued by the linesmakers because they have been on a winning streak.  Right?

Conversely a team will get undervauled when they are on a losing streak.

Thus, the computer rankings will change/the linesmakers will make an adjustment to end the streak, and they will start giving or getting a few more points than they should, right?

2. Home court is probably relevant but I havent actually researched it (ie how many winning streaks are broken at home vs on the road, etc)

3. The SIZE of the cover is probably relevant as well.  A team that eeks by 3 straight games is probably getting sharp lines and will continue to get sharp lines.  A team that covers (or doesnt) cover by more (say at leats 7 points) is playing over its head and will return to earth BUT not before their computer ranking goes up (or down) enough to get extra value on their lines.

Which brings us to Akron and Texas A+M.

Simply, would you expect a top 4 Big 12 team to give 10+points at home to any MAAC team?  Even one who is predicted by many to win the MAAC?  I think the answer is yes.  This line seems right to me.  If Akron was getting 17 that would be another story and Akron would be the play.  But this is a BAD matchup for Akron (see my writeup)and I think Texas A+M continues their streak tonight and covers the 12.  Looking forward to more inflation and betting against them next time.

Play, fade, watch - and GL with your plays tonight.

Lines are out

Elon +8 at Chatt
Sac St -6.5 vs Weber
New Mex St +17, vs NM
Miss ST -13 vs Bonnies
San Fran +19 at BYU

4 games streaks  0-4
BG -5 at fordham
Old Dom -17 at Northeastern
4-0
AF +17, at Mizzou st
Santa Clara +8, vs UNLV
NCwilm -1.5 vs mason
W+M -1 vs VCU

I made a play on Akron +13 right b/f the game, line moved from 12 to 13 and the streak has snapped. System play wins there...

Akron wins....system play was

Final

Odds	Bet Final
AKR	523	23	39	62	13	Cover: +1
TXAM	524	26	48	74	135.5	Over: 136

Bandos great write up,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Akron covers by 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

Saturday plays ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,must be +4 or -4 or higher,,,,

Winning teams to not cover,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

7-0 New Mexico to not cover

6-0 Sac st to not cover

5-0 St Bonny to not cover

4-0 Mizz St to not cover

4-0 W&M to not cover

4-0 NC Wilmington to not cover

4-0 Coast Carol to not cover if offered

4-0 UNLV to not cover

Losing Teams to Cover,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

0-6 Elon

0-5 San Fran

0-4 Bowling Green

O-4 N Mex St

0-4 Old Dom

 

Glad you all got Akron +12.5 or higher.  I did have A+M -12 so push.  Very SHARP line there.

Did you see how many FT's A+M shot - THIRTY-SIX!

Three big games for the system today

Elon - thoughts please
NMex st, only 17 - is the same kind of let down spot for NM as Portland St was for Port?
Sac St/Weber.

Really need help on Elon again.  They are either just this bad or playing like crap or both.  There is nothing remotely good about this team - they have literally done nothing well all year. 

Chattanooga, on the other hand has at least played decent defense if they are, also, offensively challenged.  The have NO returning starters but bell seems like a good transfer.  It seems that a BIG problem for Chatt is turnovers but Elon is not especially good at forcing them. 

Last game Elon went 3-25 from behind the arc.(and 2-7 from the line!)  Had they gone just 7-25, or 30%, their average, they would have lost by 12 and covered.  Had the game been closer, Samford might have played a bit better the last 10 minutes too.

New Mexico ST (+17) AT New Mexico. 

New Mexico already beat NMst by 10 at NMst

NMst returns everyone from a very young squad last year.  BUT they are missing two players, both starting forwards from last year.  They do have two large bodies to replace them with.

NM has been outstanding on the glass with NMst being awful on the offensive end and merely average on the defensive end.  Last game 41-33 adv NM.

Turnovers do not seem to be crucial 14-12 to Nmex last year.  neither team turns it over a lot or forces turnovers.

One thing stands out here.  New Mexico St shot 40% from behind the arc last year.  They return all their shooters (the guys suspended were not 3 pt shooters) yet they are only shooting 25% this year.  WHY?  Look at the teams they have played so far.  You will find they are VERY good at defending the 3 pt shot.  allowing the following % 29, 35, 24, 32, 26.  They have played 3 of the top 25 teams in defending the three.  They 32% is actually New Mexico and last game they shot (surprise) 35 %.  The 35% was NC ATT, where they shot 33 %.  Cal hit a lot of threes last game, I expect NMst will do the same.

In addition, NMst gets 33% of their points from the charity stripe where they shoot 76.4% (24th in D1).  As the other reason that NMst is not shooting the 3 as well as last year coulod be a lack of inside presence due to the suspensions - this seems to disporve that.

I see awin for NM but not by over 17 as the 3 pt/FT shooting of NMst should be enough to keep this close.  I'll take the points.

On to Sac St/Weber.

On the surface, this line seems right on maybe even a bit high.  But let's dig deeper.

Weber St. has played a very tough SOS so far at 30th, especially against good defensive clubs (eff ratings of 98,88,102,98,88) who also defend the 3 well.  I seem to be repeating myself but Weber st shot 38% from behind the arc, but only 26%.  part of that is the good perimeter D against them (allowing 32,36,34,24,25) and part is losing McCoy who shot 44%.  They should hit more three's vs Sac St who ranks well but has played some horrid three pt shooting teams.

Weber shoukd also own the glass in this game and not allow many 2nd chances for a poor shooting Sac team.

Sac ST has played a much easier schedule ranking 124th.  They have covered by playing good D, especially by forcing turnovers.  Weber St , however, does not turn the ball over.  Offensively they are challenged and on paper Weber does not play great D - remember the SOS here.

 Tolles-Bay has been a great addition to Sac and seems responsible for their air of respectability this year.  Losing MCCoy really hurts Weber.  Still, Weber beat Sac last year (8 of the same starters) by 8 on the road and 36 at home. 

I like Weber to hit a few more threes than they have thus upping their offensive efficiency.  Also, I see them not turning the ball over to give Sac those easy points.  I'm on Weber.

Those are the three games that I am most concerned with.  I would add San Fran but blindly I would play the 19 to end the streak.

Weber, unless persuaded otherwise, I play.  Even if Sac covers here, I like my chances of them NOT covering at USC next time out.

New Mex ST, I play.  If NM covers, I like my chances of a good line @SD next time.

Elon is on the road til January.  Shit.  Wake forest on deck which has the look of a 40 pt loss.

Bandos-- i handshaked the games i would play within the system, Elon has a shot in this one just cannot back em.

Well boys its SATURDAY and a ton of games today both SYSTEM and just others that look good,,,,,,,,,,,Best to all in your selections,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,System,Plays Above

REMEMBER one thing ,,,,,,,the ODDSMAKERS are 0-38 ON Winning teams to not cover,,,,,

AND 0-23 ,,,,ON Losing Teams to Cover,,,,,,

Thats a lot of mistakes,,,,,61

this can't continue and if you think it does POUND them,,,,,,,,,,,why Not,

Bandos Nice writeup,,,,,,,,,,

The best record of all W/L plays so far this year is the +4/-4 Plays at ,,,,14-7-1,,,,,4-0 are 7-4 to lose,,,,,, and 0-4 are 7-3, to win,,,,,,