SHIRLEY'S LINES FOR THURSDAY GAMES FOR ALL TO SEE

Actually the adjusted line is 5.10 and yes we are betting on Cal,. getting as many points as possible. My wagering partner will squeeze out  every 1/2 point  for as many of our wagers as he can.

BOL

Shirley

Hi actually the books line is 7 for this game and our line is 2.70. The game is a wager on the underdog, since it is more than 4 points from our projected line. We're looking closely at Idaho State here. Perhaps my partner already wagered into the line, I'm not sure.

We play all 4 point differences that are dogs, as well as favorites, only the dogs are superior wagers.

Shirley

Yes the posted lines are what we believe the lines should be for tonight's games only. Don't interpret tonights data with Saturdays future games. In all likelihood the Saturday numbers will not be anything like tonights lines.

Just bet on any 4 point differences. 3 points or more are ok, but  4 points is much better. Of course a 9.6 point difference for every game  (like Hoffstra last night), would be ideal. Concentrate on dogs to take advantage of the bias. Limit your wagers on favorites to 4 point differences or more.

If I go 10-0 or 0-10 tonight, it will not change my analysis of tomorrows games, and I will accept each the result as just 10 of many thousands of  lifetime wagering events.

BOL

Shirley

IT WOULD APPEAR THAT YOU ARE OMITTING EAST ILLINOIS FROM YOUR SHEET

YOU HAVE MOREHEAD -12..MY BOOK IS OFFERING EAST ILL +16..AM I CORRECT THAT IT SHOULD BE A PLAY?

THANK YOU FOR ALL THIS WORK AND CONTINUED SUCCESS

I want to thank you for bringing this game to my attention. Since the computer aactually updated yesterdays data, the new adjusted line for this game is Morehead St -13.0 We can only wager on E Ill if we are receiving 17.0 points or more, although it is a dog of 3 or more, and probably STILL represents a wagering advantage.

The only think I know about Morehead is that they have the one of the best rebounders in the country. This makes me want to get at least 17 here.

Sorry for the inconvenience

BOL

Shirley

shirley, I understand that dogs are superior wagers....but when is a favorite actually chosen according to your system.

Also, do your lines change as we get closer to game time? For example, you say your computer updated yesterday lines for morehead st.....does your computer frequently update as we get closer to game time based on access to new data?

so on this private site you work with a bunch of skull members to win wagers and then you volunteer your time to come to covers to help us for free despite the fact that we cannot persuade you away from your system..... seems pretty one way....what do you have to gain by doing this.....are praises and support sufficient enough for you to provide ya number on a continuing basis? *sighs* I guess we will just take it one day at a time....we'll we?

I see it now.....all of your lines are favorites, so if your favorite is more than 5.2 over the books lines, then select that favorite

YES, We have Wisc Mil as the favorite in this game, and they are a dog getting points. We like this game, of course.

Shirley

This is very interesting.  I'm usually not trusting of this kind of stuff, but I have so say after reading and looking at some of the games, I am very impressed.  I want to know how you can build/get a model like this??? Anyway, after looking at Shirley's numbers for tonight's games I am leaning toward a 3Team 8Pt teaser.

Wisc-Mil +11

Cal +21.5

Gonzaga pk.

After last night's Nova and Utah state games, I could use some insight.

Actually 1 possession is never equal to more than 1.5 points or so. I kindly explained this concept to RJ Sizzle yesterday. He is an astute handicapper, but even his perception of what a possession is worth, was off. In a perfect world, no turnovers, no steals, no offensive fouls, then you might reach 1.70 points, that's my final offer!

Actually your statement does make me think a bit more, but it's just that over time we have seen 4 point differences, this time of the year, as the number we are keying on.

Shirley

NO, you can play any game with a 4 point difference, however just wager more on the dogs than you do for the favorites with the same "delta" (difference between our line and the books).

Hope that helps

Shirley

We usually only like teasers in Pro football, however GL in your play.

Remember not to get too excited win or lose over a days plays. Also keep in mind the person providing this information wears a dunce cap!

Our Villanova prediction wasn't so hot last night, as we had them winnng by 8.10 or so. however we were aware of the DANGER with this play, It was a favorite where the line differed by 2.10 from our line. Definitely a NO PLAY. We had Utah State by 11. another no play. Off the top my head, I don't recall what the result was there.

BOL

Shirley

Thanks Shirley...I wish I paid attention to your thread yesterday, oh well, no worries.  Utah State got their lunch handed to them and lost the game by a good margin.

Quote Originally Posted by littlesprings:

Hi Shirley, great job and thank you for sharing your numbers, this may have been asked before but does your data contain any special situations such as a team on a long road trip, game before went into double overtime or injuries, again thanks for your time and I hope for your continued success 

I will answer your question.

Yes, Yes, Yes. Our new updated version acounts for injuries and makes the appropriate substitutions from the bench. There ususally isn't much of a difference (ala Kyrie vs Nolan), but sometimes it projects really weird things that are seemingly conflicted in nature.

It's like wagering on Seattle on the money line, and New Orleans on the pointspread. I hope this doesn't confuse you.

Shirley

We really aren't interested in charging people  for picks.

Thank you for the suggestion.

Shirley