SHIRLEY'S LINES FOR THURSDAY GAMES FOR ALL TO SEE

Yesterday was an AMAZING day with all games of 4 points or more going 10-0. Totals posted here were 2-3 and sides between 3 and 4 were 3-2.

I thank everyone for their support, and all of the wonderful emails and text messages to my phones. Thank you, Thank you, Thank you.

My lines for Thursday are as follows:                                                          

MichiganState 5.30

Butler                7.1

UCONN           0.80

App St             11.80

Furman             17.0    *******

Fla Int                1.00

F St                   2.60

W Car             13.20

E KY                11.50

Morehead St     12.0

W Ky                   7.0

Wisc Mil             4.30 *******

Wisc GB            4.30

TROY                 1.20*******

Valpo                 7.10

Ark St                7.30

Tenn Mart         2.90

Murray               11.10

Weber st            3.0

Washington       4.80*******

Vandy                6.80

Montana            13.20

Minn                   0.40

F Atl                   0.60

Boise                 5.30

N Col                 3.30

Poly SLO          0.60

UCSB               5.0

Port                   7.20

L. Beach          11.20****

Wash St            6.60

Fullerton            0.50

Port. St,            2.70********

UCLA               8.90

USF                 10.00

Gonzaga          14.30***

USC                  11.60

St Marys             5.80

Shirley

I didn't put a line up for games where there was NL yet, and I will check everything later, posting final numbers if there are changes, time permitting.

Remember, bet ANY underdog if the line is 4 points from my own. This is a good wager, becasue of the underdog-favorite bias that exists in coll BB games.

Additionally, play any favorite if the line is 4 points from my posted line. The edge is not as good as a dog with a 4 point difference, but it's still a winner. The higher the discrepency, the larger  the theoretical edge.

A 4 point underdog play is about the equivalent of a 5.2 point favorite play. This explains the underdog favorite bias, somewhat in laymans terms.

If you must wager on 3 point differences, at least play the dogs, as this over time should provide you with a small positive expectation event.

I put an asterisk next to games where there is already a play. You have to be alert as other games become plays as the lines move into the 4 points differences range.

Fortunately, for me, I have a person that is an expert in wagering, that plays games in LV and with a number of online books, constantly searching for the best lines for our games. This saves me a lot of time for other things in my life.  I could never approach his wagering expertise, but everyone should be able to get an edge wih my posted plays over time.

Like I said yesterday if  I go 10-0 (and I did) or 0-10, it will not influence my handicapping for tomorrows games.

I welcome all comments, and suggestions, and I eagerly await your scrutinizing and tearing apart of my lines.

BOL

Shirley

Quote Originally Posted by unitpalooza:

excellent work yesterday Shirley, I think you had 4  or 5 dogs win outright. impressive good luck today

Thank you.

Yes, it was definitely one of the 5 best days I've seen posted on this website, statistically speaking that is. I was 3.16 standard deviations above the norm. A lucky day, because nobody is that good. However all of my underdogs were VERY Live, as you mentioned

Shirley

I thought my shocker of the day todays is Troy State. I can't believe  I pick them to win. They're  just  not that good.

Shirley

BOL WILL BE ON TROY!!

Thank you.

Oh no!! Remember, they are really a bad team. I'm sure the person that wagers for me is already looking at the lines everywhere and anticipating the moves. He has Troy circled as well, but this will probably not be our largest or our best wager of the evening,

Somehow, I feel more confident wagering on a team named Georgetown getting 5 points than one named Troy.

BOL

Shirley

Quote Originally Posted by unitpalooza:

its a ruff and tuff grind and we all need any edge we can get. sorry if i missed  it but how long have you been crunching the numbers in this system?

Over 7 years, but I only post here on occassion wken time permits. I post all of my plays on another private website daily.

I hope it continues today, but remember, 3 point dogs OK if you must wager, 3 point favorites not OK . The underdog -favorite bias is a real phenomenon.

Wait for the line moves, they will come.

I'm almost ready for bed

BOL

Shirley

When I awake I expect a tearing apart of my predictions. I  actually welcome it.

Tell me that Troy is awful or that Washington will win by 40 or that Gonzaga will lose outright.

Prove to me that "my mind is full of mush" as professor Kingsfield would say.

BOL and Goodnight

Shirley

In case you missed it, this was Wednesdays recap.

Team    My Line    Books Line     Difference    Result

Toledo   11.70       +16.5                    4.8             W

JMU      +.40          +4.5                       4.1            W

Hoffstra   8.6           +1                          9.6           W

G'town     pk            +5                          5.0            W

Bradley   +10.7      +15                        4.3             W

Ind St       -5.1         PK                         5.1              W

Tex AM   -.70         +3.5                       4.2              W

Tex         -14.9       -10                          4.9               W

UNC       +5.6        +10.5                      4.9               W

BYU       -14.3        -10                          4.3               W

Games between 3 and 4 points were 3-2(Col Char, Unlv, Dav, Mia, Bayl) and totals were 2-3 (Under Mich, ND, Duke BYU, over Villanova).

What's great is that I provided these lines for all to see at least 9 hours before the first game went off. It was an amazing night when all of my numbers came together. Statistically speaking the 4 point differences had a  1 chance in 1023 of occuring, with a standard deviatio number of 3.16. One of the top 5 I have seen posted on this site, finally!

I am already working on the Thursday games and will look forward to sharing my numbers. I will post these in another thread.

Shirley

Fantastic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Keep crunching those numbers. I love em!

NUMBERS ############ NUMBERS#############NUMBERS

Will be tailing today.

Thanks Shirley

GOOD LUCK

K

Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:

Great to see you on a hot run SJ.

Can't argue with your results recently. Great job. However, I do have a question. In the Cal-Washington game, you have Wash at -4.80. How do you figure that these two teams are close to even on a neutral court considering Washington has to get around 4 points for home court?

First of all Tks for the support. Coming from you, it means something

I will address your question.

After seeing the updated numbers that my computer has been working on while I was asleep, my adjusted number for this game is Washington 5.10 not 4.80. This difference of 0.30 is almost negligible.

This game has other factors involved. Our model has many variables that are imput, and every team has their own model as does every conference. Some of the variables included are recent form, avg points per shot attempt, final 5 minutes of the game "crunch time" data, distance travelling for tonight's game, number of days off, etc.

We have comprised over 40 variables for our model, which is individualized  for every team, within every conferece. It's probably not too different than what the linesmaker does, except we do not have to balance the action, and we are not concerned with public perception, and we can include the underdog-favorite bias in our figures.

This game upon a cursory look should be a blowout. We all know that I Thomas and the gang are undefeated at home, and Holloway (is that his name) is a lights out scorer. However, they do have some weaknesses, and this matchup on this night seems to lean in the direction of the underdog. Since our job is to quantify the inequiites, we have done our best work to come up with this projected line.

Your assumption is that the home court has a fixed value of "X". Well that just depends on the situation , and is not  what our model is telling us. It could be worth "X +- 6 points in some situations".

They (Washington) could be a 5.1 favorite at home tonight, and on Saturday be a 7.4 point favorite against the same team on the road. We're never sure until the computer crunches  the updated data.

We're not perfect, not even close. However, you have stumbled upon what might become our largest wager of the evening. I sincerley hope it doesn't lose, but the steam appears to be going against us.

If Washington wins by 30, I will accept the loss. However I know I have 2 things in my favor that can not be questioned:

1) I am wagering on an underdog, so am taking advantage of the favorite underdog bias that exists.

2) Washington is a public team, thus their percepted power is overrated. Can you name 1 player on the opposing team this evening? I, honestly, can NOT.

Without giving away the store, I hope I have successfully addressed your query.

Always keep in mind, a girl with a dunce cap is providing you with this information

BOL,

Shirley

MY computer reminded me I was 4-2 on games Wednesday night that were between 3 and 4 points from my line, and not 3-2 as I had posted

Somehow I left out Florida in my writeup. My line was 7.1 and the book was at 4. This difference of 3.1 was a game of interest for all of you keeping score.

Sorry for the inconvenience

Shirley

Washington       4.80*******

Since you have Wash at this number are you playing Cal at +13.5?

looks like your on to something here