thats pretty much up to you. I try to keep my plays at a unit (1% of bankroll)... especially when I play more than just a few games. Some games I'll eliminate due to injuries or teams that I have bad mojo with.... Like Bill & Mary, they're on my personal "do not bet for or against" list.
thats pretty much up to you. I try to keep my plays at a unit (1% of bankroll)... especially when I play more than just a few games. Some games I'll eliminate due to injuries or teams that I have bad mojo with.... Like Bill & Mary, they're on my personal "do not bet for or against" list.
hahah mich. state for me..
NE is just too easy based on Shirley system, but these two team usually split 1-1. NE won in January and it's very difficult to win twice against the same opponent.
That's good insight, and the model has taken this into account. The revenge factor is one of 40 variables or so that comprises our algorithm.
However, it is my suggestion NOT to play a game that bothers you psycholgically. If you feel that revenge is more important in this game, than the median college BB game, then certainly our line is "off: Nothing is ever perfect. Ever.
We could go 15-5 today or 5-15 and it will not influence how we handicap Sundays card.
Personally, I'm not enamored with UNC, for instance. I'm not big on the "situation", after a teriffic performance vs Duke the other night. I also hate when one of my teams was on National TV. I'll take Siena or even Troy (there I said it, OMG), whose teams have limited national exposure. Going unnoticed in the publics eye is always a plus.
Of course we can name all 5 players on Dukes starting team, but can we even name 1 player on Troy State, or Siena? Probably not. There's inherent value wagering on non public teams
We usually just send in our wagers and hold our breaths.
Shirley
A lot of one post wonders in your threads of late. A large number of new friend request suggestions and thread bumping going on.
I had an idea that once you hit a good stretch, that this is what we would see here. (QUOTE)
What do you like today BillySink? You're an astute an obvious winning player. Any injuries or hot information off the presses thoughts you'd like to share with us?
Yes, our recent 19-2, 23-4, 31-7, however you're keeping score on this site, pushes us well into the black. Every previous year we have had a streak of 15 consecutive wins, wagering mostly on totals. This statement was "shocking" to some members of this forum when it was initially made, but it's the absolute truth. We can document this statement by members of a private forum we belong to. Some are also members on this site. This year (in here) we only went 15-1, and if you're keeping track, with 13 wins n a row. You have no idea about our other plays not posted in this room.
We still believe the best wagers are with totals. It's a connundrum why we are having so much difficulty this year with them, because mathematically speaking, if you are able to predict the difference of 2 variables (the spread) with a relatively high accuracy, then you should be able to predict the sum of the same 2 variables (the total) with a similar high accuracy. There is a correlation between these predicted variables, but this year we are stumbling along at 54% (on totals) with over 700 wagers made. Our "dead time" theory plays are still hitting close to 68%, but there just aren't enough of those plays per week. We were lucky to have one on Thursday, but the problem is that they get jumped on by the sharps, and in 1/2 hour, your edge has disappeared. If my college BB partner is not betting at an offshore book at 9:30 AM EST, he will have missed the boat. You know what I'm talking about. Others have the expertise to identify these plays as well. Three (3) games satisfy my "dead time" theory today. If you have an extra few minutes one day, reread that posting, it makes you think about how it's possible for the linesmakers to make a "slight" error in calculating their projected total for a game.
Anyway, none of this really matters. I recall you saying something about tournament time, and our numbers. We will hopefully make it a point to make sure we put our numbers out there for the first 4 days of the tourney for EVERONE to see. We are expecting a lot of "no name" teams getting a lot of points to be great wagers. I would love to be in Vegas for that opening weekend.
Time permitting 'll explain the liklihoods of random events occurring and their probabilities., in another thread. This discussion will demonstrate the liklihood of events happening by chance, and the respective proabilites assigned to such events. It's may be a bit too much math for the average person, but I'll try to put it in laymans terms. I will quantify the liklihood of hitting x amount of games in a row, or going 19-2, or better. It should provide an interesting discussion at the very least.
Billy sink, I (we) wish you the very best. I know you are good at what you do, and I respect that. College BB is NOT the best thing that we do, it's just another avenue to hopefully yield a positve expectation over time. That's the most that any of us can ask for.
We would appreciate you sharing any positive information within this or any other thread. You comments and remarks are considered to be valuable in this community.
BOL
Shirley
Established in 1995,
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