So, I think Purdue can stay within the spread. I don't see this as a large wager because I think Kansas definitely wins this one SU--I love the x-factors Jackson and Mason to ensure that they advance
5 is not enough to make that statement. It's over 4 but typically a dead number. Not like the NFL but less significant than 4,7,10 which are key numbers in basketball.
Simply stated, if you think Kansas will win than it is a no-play if the spread still bothers you or a Kansas side to win.
That is too thin a window to suggest Purdue will get inside it if you think Kansas will win, as you said they would.
My window is 10! That is, I need 11 points if I believe my team will lose outright and I want my team inside the spread. Otherwise, I cap them with a significant chance to WIN and then I get very large insurance of 10.
In your case you are capping Purdue to lose, making 5 very LITTLE insurance (as only 1,2,3,4 will pay you if they do).
Having said that, again, good write-up.
I like the write-up but I have to say this:
So, I think Purdue can stay within the spread. I don't see this as a large wager because I think Kansas definitely wins this one SU--I love the x-factors Jackson and Mason to ensure that they advance
5 is not enough to make that statement. It's over 4 but typically a dead number. Not like the NFL but less significant than 4,7,10 which are key numbers in basketball.
Simply stated, if you think Kansas will win than it is a no-play if the spread still bothers you or a Kansas side to win.
That is too thin a window to suggest Purdue will get inside it if you think Kansas will win, as you said they would.
My window is 10! That is, I need 11 points if I believe my team will lose outright and I want my team inside the spread. Otherwise, I cap them with a significant chance to WIN and then I get very large insurance of 10.
In your case you are capping Purdue to lose, making 5 very LITTLE insurance (as only 1,2,3,4 will pay you if they do).
I think Purdue can win this game. It's not like I said that Purdue doesn't have a chance. I don't want to come off as a Purdue homer. I try to be as conservatively realistic as possible, making sure I don't make any mistakes. Covering a 5 point deficit but winning su is common. I posted Rhode Island ats on sunday. I think Purdue will be another example. Thanks for the input
I think Purdue can win this game. It's not like I said that Purdue doesn't have a chance. I don't want to come off as a Purdue homer. I try to be as conservatively realistic as possible, making sure I don't make any mistakes. Covering a 5 point deficit but winning su is common. I posted Rhode Island ats on sunday. I think Purdue will be another example. Thanks for the input
Like I said in the write-up, I think Purdue definitely keeps this within three possessions. Like they're down 77-75 with 20 seconds left, miss a shot, foul, score end the game losing by max 4
Like I said in the write-up, I think Purdue definitely keeps this within three possessions. Like they're down 77-75 with 20 seconds left, miss a shot, foul, score end the game losing by max 4
Well if you are now revising that you think Purdue can win you are fine. But I can assure you 5 is no window at all. You would need exactly the scenario you spelled out (down 2, 20 seconds left) to cover with 5 and even then it's tenuous.
Well if you are now revising that you think Purdue can win you are fine. But I can assure you 5 is no window at all. You would need exactly the scenario you spelled out (down 2, 20 seconds left) to cover with 5 and even then it's tenuous.
Well what I was thinking was that Purdue would be up late and the two x-factors for Kansas would magically pull a win out with a three or something crazy, that's where I stopped thinking. I feel confident given my write-up that Purdue cover is the most probable play. But I don't want to play the ML. Same exact reason that I played Rhode Island ats but not ML. Oregon has Brooks. Kansas has Mason. They'll find some way to pull a win out at the end. But not cover. Of course Purdue can win su. Points is the play though imo. 5 is too much chalk given everything I wrote
Well what I was thinking was that Purdue would be up late and the two x-factors for Kansas would magically pull a win out with a three or something crazy, that's where I stopped thinking. I feel confident given my write-up that Purdue cover is the most probable play. But I don't want to play the ML. Same exact reason that I played Rhode Island ats but not ML. Oregon has Brooks. Kansas has Mason. They'll find some way to pull a win out at the end. But not cover. Of course Purdue can win su. Points is the play though imo. 5 is too much chalk given everything I wrote
Here's my problem with Purdue in this game. First off, Eddy mentioned it above, but Painter versus Self is about as big a coaching mismatch you will find this late into the tourney. I'm not even a huge Self fan, but would without question take him 1000 times out of 1000 over Painter in any scenario.
My next problem is its pretty clear the formula for slowing down Purdue (and also scoring on them with ease) was figured out in the second half of the Iowa State. Lets call a spade a spade, Purdue was flat out exposed in the 2nd half. That being said, Steve Prohm's gameplan against them wasnt even that spot on.
At times he'd roll out the 4 out set with Burton setting a high ball screen for Morris, in turn putting Swanigan in a PnR and more importantly 22 feet from the hoop, but he didnt run it enough.... not even close to enough. I just can't figure out how Purdue is going to be able to slow down Mason/Lucas PnR with Jackson on the wing ready to catch and slash to the hoop when needed. If Purdue thinks their going to be able to roll out Haas/Swanigan on the court together for longer than 8-10 minutes, their sadly mistaken. Swanigan in this scenario would mostly be on Jackson, which is a just asking to be scored on every time down the court. Not to mention Kansas' vaunted transition game would be put in the perfect scenario.
There are so many big time players in this matchup, yet I think the most important little battle that will mean the most in this game is Mathias/Mykhailiuk. These two have their similarities, but also some key differences. Mathias, a kid who grew up about a half hour from me in Elida, Ohio and knocked out my alma mater a few years back in the state playoffs, has one of the best basketball IQ's in the college game today. He's so smart at moving without the ball and finding spaces in the defense to get a good look from the outside. His ability to shoot off the dribble is a bit underrated, but the real problem is when you leave him open due to a poor rotation off a Swanigan post up. He's very smart defensively, but has no foot speed and struggles to guard good slashing wings. In fits Mykhaliuk. A player who has taken huge strides this season in his penetration game. His shooting ability opens up his pump and power move to his right, something that resulted in two baskets for him last game. He's got the ability to give Kansas a huge boost as their 4th scorer tonight, something they've been looking for all year. If he can have a good start tonight, I think it will slowly start to open up the paint for Mason/Jackson/Graham.
I got Kansas winning this one 82-73. Would love to take the over, but the number is slightly too high for me. Will probably wait to see what the 2h line is.
Here's my problem with Purdue in this game. First off, Eddy mentioned it above, but Painter versus Self is about as big a coaching mismatch you will find this late into the tourney. I'm not even a huge Self fan, but would without question take him 1000 times out of 1000 over Painter in any scenario.
My next problem is its pretty clear the formula for slowing down Purdue (and also scoring on them with ease) was figured out in the second half of the Iowa State. Lets call a spade a spade, Purdue was flat out exposed in the 2nd half. That being said, Steve Prohm's gameplan against them wasnt even that spot on.
At times he'd roll out the 4 out set with Burton setting a high ball screen for Morris, in turn putting Swanigan in a PnR and more importantly 22 feet from the hoop, but he didnt run it enough.... not even close to enough. I just can't figure out how Purdue is going to be able to slow down Mason/Lucas PnR with Jackson on the wing ready to catch and slash to the hoop when needed. If Purdue thinks their going to be able to roll out Haas/Swanigan on the court together for longer than 8-10 minutes, their sadly mistaken. Swanigan in this scenario would mostly be on Jackson, which is a just asking to be scored on every time down the court. Not to mention Kansas' vaunted transition game would be put in the perfect scenario.
There are so many big time players in this matchup, yet I think the most important little battle that will mean the most in this game is Mathias/Mykhailiuk. These two have their similarities, but also some key differences. Mathias, a kid who grew up about a half hour from me in Elida, Ohio and knocked out my alma mater a few years back in the state playoffs, has one of the best basketball IQ's in the college game today. He's so smart at moving without the ball and finding spaces in the defense to get a good look from the outside. His ability to shoot off the dribble is a bit underrated, but the real problem is when you leave him open due to a poor rotation off a Swanigan post up. He's very smart defensively, but has no foot speed and struggles to guard good slashing wings. In fits Mykhaliuk. A player who has taken huge strides this season in his penetration game. His shooting ability opens up his pump and power move to his right, something that resulted in two baskets for him last game. He's got the ability to give Kansas a huge boost as their 4th scorer tonight, something they've been looking for all year. If he can have a good start tonight, I think it will slowly start to open up the paint for Mason/Jackson/Graham.
I got Kansas winning this one 82-73. Would love to take the over, but the number is slightly too high for me. Will probably wait to see what the 2h line is.
I think I was just trying to be so precise in my analysis that I lost some persuasiveness, but that' ok, i'm not trying to "sell" Purdue, just express my humble opinion
I think I was just trying to be so precise in my analysis that I lost some persuasiveness, but that' ok, i'm not trying to "sell" Purdue, just express my humble opinion
IMO, the key tonight will be if Purdue can make their perimeter shots.... Kansas will definitely key the defense on the Purdue bigs and try not to allow them to establish a near the basket post presence, which should open up some decent looks for Mathias, Cline and Thompson on the outside....If they have a rough shooting game them Kansas will win by 10+....
IMO, the key tonight will be if Purdue can make their perimeter shots.... Kansas will definitely key the defense on the Purdue bigs and try not to allow them to establish a near the basket post presence, which should open up some decent looks for Mathias, Cline and Thompson on the outside....If they have a rough shooting game them Kansas will win by 10+....
Purdue has 5 guys that shot over 40% from 3. They may have had a bad game, but don't be fooled, they can light you up.
Mathias - 45.8% (led Big10) on 155 attempts Swanigan - 43.2% on 81 attempts V. Edwards - 42.5% on 102 Cline - 40.6% on 106 Thompson - 40.2% on 127
I'd be shocked if there is another team in the nation that has 5 guys over 40% from 3 on the year. It's due to their inside/outside game getting good looks. Kansas will probably have to double Swanigan. When they do, he will kick to someone who is over 40% from 3 with over 100 attempts on the year...I like those odds.
Jags/Sac thanks for the awesome words/numbers. I'll be on Purdue. The only thing that gives me pause is the potential that Jackson could be breaking out in route to the draft, similar to Carmelo's tourney.
I agree Decimal....
Quote Originally Posted by Go_Green:
Purdue has 5 guys that shot over 40% from 3. They may have had a bad game, but don't be fooled, they can light you up.
Mathias - 45.8% (led Big10) on 155 attempts Swanigan - 43.2% on 81 attempts V. Edwards - 42.5% on 102 Cline - 40.6% on 106 Thompson - 40.2% on 127
I'd be shocked if there is another team in the nation that has 5 guys over 40% from 3 on the year. It's due to their inside/outside game getting good looks. Kansas will probably have to double Swanigan. When they do, he will kick to someone who is over 40% from 3 with over 100 attempts on the year...I like those odds.
Jags/Sac thanks for the awesome words/numbers. I'll be on Purdue. The only thing that gives me pause is the potential that Jackson could be breaking out in route to the draft, similar to Carmelo's tourney.
Appreciate well thought out posts! After watching all the games I think Kansas is the best team. No stats to back it up...but when they were playing Mich st,they just looked really good. ,
Appreciate well thought out posts! After watching all the games I think Kansas is the best team. No stats to back it up...but when they were playing Mich st,they just looked really good. ,
NIce write-up, Jags.... and some very compelling arguments.
I'm leaning Kansas before the write-up, and still a little, but a bit more cautious about it now. This game might be more of a live bet for me, as I feel Kansas advances. Maybe I can get them at a low ML.
NIce write-up, Jags.... and some very compelling arguments.
I'm leaning Kansas before the write-up, and still a little, but a bit more cautious about it now. This game might be more of a live bet for me, as I feel Kansas advances. Maybe I can get them at a low ML.
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