After pouring over almost the entire card. I can only pick 1 game to wager on.
Penn State + 4.5
Using my "methods", which incorporate median and average performances of recent games, this is the only game (so far) where I think I have a wagering edge.
This wager falls into my "best bet" category, so it warrants my MAX bet. The only problem I have is that I have been really "off" on my predictions of Illinois games to date. Hopefully, I am correct tonight.
Comments and observations are welcome.
BOL,
Totally.....................Shirley
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
After pouring over almost the entire card. I can only pick 1 game to wager on.
Penn State + 4.5
Using my "methods", which incorporate median and average performances of recent games, this is the only game (so far) where I think I have a wagering edge.
This wager falls into my "best bet" category, so it warrants my MAX bet. The only problem I have is that I have been really "off" on my predictions of Illinois games to date. Hopefully, I am correct tonight.
Can somebody give me a really good reason to play Illinois in this game?
Is their "D" that good, that they hold opponents to extremely low shooting pcts. or do they shoot 90% from the line down the stretch, or light it up from 3?
I know they are a great assist team, continuing to pass to the open man, I can see that. Maybe their degensive board strength is supreme, I don't know.
I am thinking that this game is too good to be true, and you know what they say about that statement!
C'mon Penn State, please cover the spread!
BOL,
Totally........................ Shirley
Can somebody give me a really good reason to play Illinois in this game?
Is their "D" that good, that they hold opponents to extremely low shooting pcts. or do they shoot 90% from the line down the stretch, or light it up from 3?
I know they are a great assist team, continuing to pass to the open man, I can see that. Maybe their degensive board strength is supreme, I don't know.
I am thinking that this game is too good to be true, and you know what they say about that statement!
I just can't get that Blowout out of my head when Penn State was used and abused by Maryland. Penn State relies a lot on one player...tho they do play well at home...ex. Purdue game. Illini has too many shooters for Penn State to control.
gl
I just can't get that Blowout out of my head when Penn State was used and abused by Maryland. Penn State relies a lot on one player...tho they do play well at home...ex. Purdue game. Illini has too many shooters for Penn State to control.
Using my "methods", which incorporate median and average performances of recent games
If your "methods" are using average performances of recent games, did you completely look past the fact that Illinois is shooting an average of 67% from the field in their last three games?
Quote Originally Posted by shirley-jester:
Using my "methods", which incorporate median and average performances of recent games
If your "methods" are using average performances of recent games, did you completely look past the fact that Illinois is shooting an average of 67% from the field in their last three games?
If your "methods" are using average performances of recent games, did you completely look past the fact that Illinois is shooting an average of 67% from the field in their last three games?
Good point. I believe this is why they are a "bet against" tonight.
Their results are not representative of the "real scores" of their games. Most teams shoot in the 45 pct range.
Incidentally, I use both means and medians to calculate the games.
If they shoot 67% for the year, then I will adjust my methods, however, I don't put heavy weighting on shooting pcts. I concentrate on the "hidden" stats of baketball games which yield a truer picture of any game played.
Thanks for the comments, well taken
Totally.................Shirley
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
If your "methods" are using average performances of recent games, did you completely look past the fact that Illinois is shooting an average of 67% from the field in their last three games?
Good point. I believe this is why they are a "bet against" tonight.
Their results are not representative of the "real scores" of their games. Most teams shoot in the 45 pct range.
Incidentally, I use both means and medians to calculate the games.
If they shoot 67% for the year, then I will adjust my methods, however, I don't put heavy weighting on shooting pcts. I concentrate on the "hidden" stats of baketball games which yield a truer picture of any game played.
I just can't get that Blowout out of my head when Penn State was used and abused by Maryland. Penn State relies a lot on one player...tho they do play well at home...ex. Purdue game. Illini has too many shooters for Penn State to control.
gl
I know what you mean! One player wonder team.
Bol, totally Shirley
Quote Originally Posted by meatwhistle:
I just can't get that Blowout out of my head when Penn State was used and abused by Maryland. Penn State relies a lot on one player...tho they do play well at home...ex. Purdue game. Illini has too many shooters for Penn State to control.
How about ILLI is 3rd in the country in 3 point shooting while PSU is 321st in defending it. Also, PSU, slight let down after a tough win over MSU, starters averaged 37-38 minutes, see them losing their legs a little in the 2nd half. Should be a good game but I see ILLI pulling away in the 2nd half. But that is why we gamble.
How about ILLI is 3rd in the country in 3 point shooting while PSU is 321st in defending it. Also, PSU, slight let down after a tough win over MSU, starters averaged 37-38 minutes, see them losing their legs a little in the 2nd half. Should be a good game but I see ILLI pulling away in the 2nd half. But that is why we gamble.
How about ILLI is 3rd in the country in 3 point shooting while PSU is 321st in defending it. Also, PSU, slight let down after a tough win over MSU, starters averaged 37-38 minutes, see them losing their legs a little in the 2nd half. Should be a good game but I see ILLI pulling away in the 2nd half. But that is why we gamble.
Great observations and comments. Thank you
Quote Originally Posted by cburk:
How about ILLI is 3rd in the country in 3 point shooting while PSU is 321st in defending it. Also, PSU, slight let down after a tough win over MSU, starters averaged 37-38 minutes, see them losing their legs a little in the 2nd half. Should be a good game but I see ILLI pulling away in the 2nd half. But that is why we gamble.
Illinois shoots the three very well and Penn State is one of the worst in Div I-A at defending it. Also, the PSU big men are not nearly effective going against bigger players like Tisdale and Davis for Illinois.
Illinois shoots the three very well and Penn State is one of the worst in Div I-A at defending it. Also, the PSU big men are not nearly effective going against bigger players like Tisdale and Davis for Illinois.
If you have been "off" on Illini games, that would seem the perfect opportunity for you to walk away.............
Until you can figure them out.
I mean, what if I said "I got a system that works really well, except when Wichita State plays"
You make me smile. I already pulled the trigger at +5, and a maz bet wager for me,
It's still a max bet for me, but my side "does" hurt. I better stop poking it. I am getting what you mean, and might feel ill when P st goes down 23-7 early.
You make too much sense for me!!
Totally.,,,,,,,Shirley
[Quote: Originally Posted by The Hawk]
If you have been "off" on Illini games, that would seem the perfect opportunity for you to walk away.............
Until you can figure them out.
I mean, what if I said "I got a system that works really well, except when Wichita State plays"
You make me smile. I already pulled the trigger at +5, and a maz bet wager for me,
It's still a max bet for me, but my side "does" hurt. I better stop poking it. I am getting what you mean, and might feel ill when P st goes down 23-7 early.
Shirl, it would appear you keep accurate records/tracking of your wagers, and not just the wins. That puts you in the top 25% IMHO, of knowing what you are betting. I'm sure you'll be smiling soon, and not just because of my lousy jokes.
And when you do, you'll come back and tell us, right? We are here to help each other. GL
Shirl, it would appear you keep accurate records/tracking of your wagers, and not just the wins. That puts you in the top 25% IMHO, of knowing what you are betting. I'm sure you'll be smiling soon, and not just because of my lousy jokes.
And when you do, you'll come back and tell us, right? We are here to help each other. GL
I just finished "watching the game" on the internet. 5 hours after it was completed.
My analysis yields an interesting observation.
Although the score was a 2 point win, I believe P St, was in control of this game, pretty mach the entire way, and could have won by a lot more.
My numbers (before game time) had P St winning by 7. I didn't publish these, because I didn't want everyone to think I was out of my mind.
However, this game looks more like a 10-12 point win, rather than a 2 point victotry for P St.. The shot terribly, and still won!
Maybe they will continue to be UNDERRATED in future games. It all depends on the matchup, and to have an actual wager, we need the other team to be OVERRATED.
Congrats to all that wagered on the baby lions.
BOL,
Totally.............Shirley
I just finished "watching the game" on the internet. 5 hours after it was completed.
My analysis yields an interesting observation.
Although the score was a 2 point win, I believe P St, was in control of this game, pretty mach the entire way, and could have won by a lot more.
My numbers (before game time) had P St winning by 7. I didn't publish these, because I didn't want everyone to think I was out of my mind.
However, this game looks more like a 10-12 point win, rather than a 2 point victotry for P St.. The shot terribly, and still won!
Maybe they will continue to be UNDERRATED in future games. It all depends on the matchup, and to have an actual wager, we need the other team to be OVERRATED.
Illinois shoots the three very well and Penn State is one of the worst in Div I-A at defending it. Also, the PSU big men are not nearly effective going against bigger players like Tisdale and Davis for Illinois.
Great observation, but a potentially wrong analysis for the 3 point shooting.. I'lll explain.
They cant' shoot higher than 100% from 3. that's their upside. Most likely their real upside is only 50%. If they shoot 45%, then a poor team like P St. will raise their shooting pct only 5% to 50% (their real limit),
If they shoot great from 3 a poor defensive team will not change anything. Only a GOOD defensive team will impact their 3 balls, and effect their scoring potential. So, P St's def 3 ineptness is NOT a huge hinderence for this matchup.
You have to think out of the box a bit to fugure this out, but that's how i's done.
BOL,
Totally...............Shirley
Quote Originally Posted by bigsew65:
Illinois shoots the three very well and Penn State is one of the worst in Div I-A at defending it. Also, the PSU big men are not nearly effective going against bigger players like Tisdale and Davis for Illinois.
Great observation, but a potentially wrong analysis for the 3 point shooting.. I'lll explain.
They cant' shoot higher than 100% from 3. that's their upside. Most likely their real upside is only 50%. If they shoot 45%, then a poor team like P St. will raise their shooting pct only 5% to 50% (their real limit),
If they shoot great from 3 a poor defensive team will not change anything. Only a GOOD defensive team will impact their 3 balls, and effect their scoring potential. So, P St's def 3 ineptness is NOT a huge hinderence for this matchup.
You have to think out of the box a bit to fugure this out, but that's how i's done.
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