Posted:
#76
Was definetly looking into this game
GL
- The storms will come, the storms will pass -
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NCAAB WED
Posted:
#79
I hate making these decisions lol.... i should just switch to whatever your book is so I dont always have to worry about my shit being 1/2 point different. These halfies have bit me in the ass so many times!
Do you have a theory on when you tend to buy points? We had a similar discussion going with URISS today/yesterday with why you bought the half point to get it at 169.
Thanks again bro and BOL
Do you have a theory on when you tend to buy points? We had a similar discussion going with URISS today/yesterday with why you bought the half point to get it at 169.
Thanks again bro and BOL
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Posted:
#80
On a different note - but again relating to betting strategy:
Today on the MSU game I bet 10 units, down 15 at the half and seeing a 2nd half line of -3.5 I obviously doubled down thinking "Michigan state wont lose by more than 11!".... we all know how that turned out.
You have said before that you tend not to make halftime bets.... would you just let that game go by the wayside? One would think the value of betting the #5 team in the country to make a slight comeback would be worth it.
Just interested in picking your brain on the subject seeing as sometimes it helps and I break even, othertimes I crash and burn big time (tonight)
Thanks UNC
Today on the MSU game I bet 10 units, down 15 at the half and seeing a 2nd half line of -3.5 I obviously doubled down thinking "Michigan state wont lose by more than 11!".... we all know how that turned out.
You have said before that you tend not to make halftime bets.... would you just let that game go by the wayside? One would think the value of betting the #5 team in the country to make a slight comeback would be worth it.
Just interested in picking your brain on the subject seeing as sometimes it helps and I break even, othertimes I crash and burn big time (tonight)
Thanks UNC
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Posted:
#81
Quote Originally Posted by Gfunkera86:
I hate making these decisions lol.... i should just switch to whatever your book is so I dont always have to worry about my shit being 1/2 point different. These halfies have bit me in the ass so many times!
Do you have a theory on when you tend to buy points? We had a similar discussion going with URISS today/yesterday with why you bought the half point to get it at 169.
Thanks again bro and BOL
I hate making these decisions lol.... i should just switch to whatever your book is so I dont always have to worry about my shit being 1/2 point different. These halfies have bit me in the ass so many times!
Do you have a theory on when you tend to buy points? We had a similar discussion going with URISS today/yesterday with why you bought the half point to get it at 169.
Thanks again bro and BOL
Its more feel than anything.
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Posted:
#83
Quote Originally Posted by Gfunkera86:
On a different note - but again relating to betting strategy:
Today on the MSU game I bet 10 units, down 15 at the half and seeing a 2nd half line of -3.5 I obviously doubled down thinking "Michigan state wont lose by more than 11!".... we all know how that turned out.
You have said before that you tend not to make halftime bets.... would you just let that game go by the wayside? One would think the value of betting the #5 team in the country to make a slight comeback would be worth it.
Just interested in picking your brain on the subject seeing as sometimes it helps and I break even, othertimes I crash and burn big time (tonight)
Thanks UNC
On a different note - but again relating to betting strategy:
Today on the MSU game I bet 10 units, down 15 at the half and seeing a 2nd half line of -3.5 I obviously doubled down thinking "Michigan state wont lose by more than 11!".... we all know how that turned out.
You have said before that you tend not to make halftime bets.... would you just let that game go by the wayside? One would think the value of betting the #5 team in the country to make a slight comeback would be worth it.
Just interested in picking your brain on the subject seeing as sometimes it helps and I break even, othertimes I crash and burn big time (tonight)
Thanks UNC
I let it go man. If I am beat I am beat why try and break even or get your money when there is a possibilty of being blow out like MSU did tonight. Same with the Middle opportunites why risk a chance of being 1-0 then end up 1-1 and eating juice. There is always another play. MSU was down 15 and if they really thought they would have made a game out of this we would of saw a 6-8 number thrown at us. Too many things can happen in a half I want the full game where I know I can avoid one team showing up in the 1st half then my team comes rally back in the 2nd. Or vice versa.
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Posted:
#86
haltime bets:
the team that u originally thought was going to win u rather be down by a few points no more than 7 shooting at leaast 12 percent less than opponent . there a lot of barameter for increase lead at half or the come back this the the one i use and i stick to it
#2 assist to turnover ratio at the half ( good to see how ur teams moving the ball versus how there just throwing that shit away)
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Posted:
#87
Quote Originally Posted by UNCforever:
Thats a great write up, really like this spot for all the reasons stated, this is a huge let down game for VIR and I really felt like this line would be higher, maybe 8 because of how NC STATE has looked on the road, the fact that its lower makes me feel like its going to be a war between two teams trying to make moves in the ACC, i saw that u dont like this card too much, man i see alot of value on this card, but that was just at first glance, good work bud, keep it upNC ST +6 (20U)
This has game of the year type shit written all over it but I cant get myself to do it with NC ST being away from home. Which would be one of my 50U plays. Not to mention I dont want to give back everything from the last 3 days.
Anyways NC ST has played extremely well this year on the road. Going 5-1 ATS not to mention they are 6-2 ATS as a dog this year. While we are trends NC ST is 13-3 ATS their last 16 road games. Road team is 9-1 the last 10 ATS.
IMO these are 2 evenly matched teams from top to bottom but I like the depth a little bit more of NC ST for this one. This is a huge revenge game and Coach Lowe has already stated that this is one game that has been very bitter to them. Blowing a double digit lead at home with 10 min to go can make a team a emotional mess. I think we will see a full effort and complete focus in this one. UVA upsetting UNC at Chapel Hill only adds more strength to this play.
NC ST is about to hit a tough schedule with GTECH, VT, UNC, and MARY. If there is one that they can steal and try to get manage this stretch going 2-3 this is one of them.
Now NC ST is going to have to complete on the glass and somehow slowdown Landesberg or Scott just one of them and I will be happy. I think Smith and Horner for NC ST will have big games tonight. The biggest key can NC ST step up and make some freethrows that was the downfall in the last meeting but I think they will improve for this contest.
It should be a great game but I feel this one comes down to the final possesion and I will gladly back the team that is deeper, looking for revenge' and fighting for their lives in the conference. I think the win at Chapel hill will really show for this one. Just too many points for 2 teams that are very even.
A good road team and solid trends on my side also.
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Posted:
#91
Quote Originally Posted by spivince:
UNC are you gonna bet on the superbowl sunday? And if so who do you like? Do you like any prop bets for the Superbowl as well?
UNC are you gonna bet on the superbowl sunday? And if so who do you like? Do you like any prop bets for the Superbowl as well?
I bet the game right after the NO game. Pure homer play IND -3 as I will not sit there and root for the Saints on the biggest stage. I would advise not tailing on this one.
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Posted:
#92
Quote Originally Posted by Gfunkera86:
I hate making these decisions lol.... i should just switch to whatever your book is so I dont always have to worry about my shit being 1/2 point different. These halfies have bit me in the ass so many times!
Do you have a theory on when you tend to buy points? We had a similar discussion going with URISS today/yesterday with why you bought the half point to get it at 169.
Thanks again bro and BOL
I hate making these decisions lol.... i should just switch to whatever your book is so I dont always have to worry about my shit being 1/2 point different. These halfies have bit me in the ass so many times!
Do you have a theory on when you tend to buy points? We had a similar discussion going with URISS today/yesterday with why you bought the half point to get it at 169.
Thanks again bro and BOL
I was just saying earlier when you buy from 168 1/2 to 169, your paying - 120 to push. Doesn't really make sense b/c if the game falls at 168 you would win anyway. The odds that a total falls within a half a point of the predicted number is slim to none, in fact, its less than 2%.. So if you played 10 games a year at -120 and each wager was $1,000, your talking about a $400 difference in earnings if you hit at 60% for something that hits less than 2% of the time. And thats of course if you hit at 60%.. if you hit at 50% your losing an additional $500.
Paying -120 on a side is completely different
Don't mean to intrude but that's all i was really trying to get at earlier
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Posted:
#93
Damn I took Virginia -6, but only 1 unit so far. The cavaliers have impressed me, especially Landesberg and zeglinski. Your not concerned about how well UVA defends the basket? They put on a defensive clinic against VA Tech for 36 minutes and they somehow managed to shut down Ed Davis and Deon Thompson at Chapel Hill. I think Bennett is one of the best coaches in the country, as his teams play great defense every year. He realizes his squad has a legit chance of making the tourney and this is a game they are expecting to win. Don't know about NC State's guard play on the road either, but I'm simply playing Devil's advocate here. I hate being on the opposite side as you
and I'm definitely not adding to my small play after seeing you on State
and I'm definitely not adding to my small play after seeing you on State
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Posted:
#95
raiderbill thats good and dandy but this is actually washst/virginia cavs not dave latos sorry cavs those numbers have no precendent u cut the head off the snake remember u kill it this is a whole new mind a whole new way of thinking its abvious that virginia covers they play better defense and hit there freethrow more than none lost last time out at home and i consider them a good team
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Posted:
#99
Quote Originally Posted by URISS2302:
I was just saying earlier when you buy from 168 1/2 to 169, your paying - 120 to push. Doesn't really make sense b/c if the game falls at 168 you would win anyway. The odds that a total falls within a half a point of the predicted number is slim to none, in fact, its less than 2%.. So if you played 10 games a year at -120 and each wager was $1,000, your talking about a $400 difference in earnings if you hit at 60% for something that hits less than 2% of the time. And thats of course if you hit at 60%.. if you hit at 50% your losing an additional $500.
Paying -120 on a side is completely different
Don't mean to intrude but that's all i was really trying to get at earlier
I was just saying earlier when you buy from 168 1/2 to 169, your paying - 120 to push. Doesn't really make sense b/c if the game falls at 168 you would win anyway. The odds that a total falls within a half a point of the predicted number is slim to none, in fact, its less than 2%.. So if you played 10 games a year at -120 and each wager was $1,000, your talking about a $400 difference in earnings if you hit at 60% for something that hits less than 2% of the time. And thats of course if you hit at 60%.. if you hit at 50% your losing an additional $500.
Paying -120 on a side is completely different
Don't mean to intrude but that's all i was really trying to get at earlier
Ya I understand what you are saying... that why I have such trouble deciding on when and when not to buy points. You make a good case but at such a high number I believe it gets exponentially more difficult to hit the high total thus buying the half point on that game is more valuable than buying on a 155 total (if you get what Im saying).
I dont think I have ever bought points on a total though... I am more referring to buying on sides... when the spot is worth laying down the extra cash...
Interesting topic tho
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Posted:
#100
Look at how the Pack bounced back after losing vs. NW (won SU at MARQ), vs. UVA (won SU at FSU), vs. CLEM (won SU vs Duke). if you exclude NC Central game, they had another poor showing vs UNC, which gives them a week to prepare and makes at UVA a good spot with UVA coming off a huge win on 2 days rest. when the Pack had a scrimmage in 8 days to brood and plot after failing to show up against arch rival UNC in the final 15 minutes
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