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NCAA Totals Betting Strategy -- Must Read and Provide Feedback

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Posted: #26
I agree with you GameHunter, I have not seen anybook that allows this kind of parlays...
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by Brian090:

If you can correlate the two halfs hitting the same at 80% a clip, what difference does it really make?  You just have to hit the second half hard and take those 20% losses, right?

that's not mathematically true....he is not saying that the 2nd half total goes over 80% of the time when the first half goes over...he is saying the game total goes over 80% of the time when the first half goes over, which makes sense...if a game goes way over the first half, it's a huge favorite that the game total will go over....i.e. use the Iona game tonight with a line of 64.5 in the 1st and 138 in the game...if the 1st half lands on say 75, the 2nd half total will be about 74. If the 2nd half lands 64-74, the game total is still an over but the second half is an under....

 
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Posted: #28
Does anyone have yesterday's half lines?  I would be interested in looking at how they compared to the overall score.
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Brian090:

If you can correlate the two halfs hitting the same at 80% a clip, what difference does it really make?  You just have to hit the second half hard and take those 20% losses, right?

WRONG - b/c you're making the assumption that you can guess correctly.  If you guess wrong for the 1H and FG, you're losing two straight plays (at a 80% clip) just like you'd be winning at an 80% clip if you guessed right.

 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:

that's not mathematically true....he is not saying that the 2nd half total goes over 80% of the time when the first half goes over...he is saying the game total goes over 80% of the time when the first half goes over, which makes sense...if a game goes way over the first half, it's a huge favorite that the game total will go over....i.e. use the Iona game tonight with a line of 64.5 in the 1st and 138 in the game...if the 1st half lands on say 75, the 2nd half total will be about 74. If the 2nd half lands 64-74, the game total is still an over but the second half is an under....

 

I gotchya.  Makes sense now

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by GmoNavarro:

I have always asked this myself but I have never track the results, I will maybe start tracking them, I am also trying to make a computer program to project totals base on kenporn stats, how did you do it? I am trying to do it with MiniTab...GL

Try taking both teams pace ratings and adding them together (Total Pace).

Then take each teams OE and DE and add all 4 numbers together and divide them by 4 for an average efficiency number (Average Efficiency).

Then multiply Total Pace times Average Efficiency.

 
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Posted: #32
Thank you all for the great inputs...The betting strategy is now trashed...It is this types of feedback that make different this forum great.
 
I will have to rely on my computer system picks of the total.  I did well the past few days with an 11-5 record. 
 
I will begin posting my total plays and see how it well it is.  Note...with any new system, there will be some adjustments.
 
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Posted: #33
Gamehunter and Jim are right. You cannot do this type of parlay. However, my friends and I were able to do this with a local for a while a few years ago before he caught on and made a ridiculous amount of money. After he caught on we all searched different books to see if it were permitted and nowhere was it....If you find a book that allows me to please start a thread because this is truly easy money.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by Kennyvegas:

Gamehunter and Jim are right. You cannot do this type of parlay. However, my friends and I were able to do this with a local for a while a few years ago before he caught on and made a ridiculous amount of money. After he caught on we all searched different books to see if it were permitted and nowhere was it....If you find a book that allows me to please start a thread because this is truly easy money.

Similarly, if you find a book who will take a parlay of a Moneyline underdog with the the same underdog on the straight spread line, let me know....that system is 100% when the ML hits.

 
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Posted: #35
lol
 
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Posted: #36
The KENPOM ratings are a great tool, but just one of many you need to use in capping these games.  Use Kenpom alone and eventually the books will catch up to you (if not right away).
 
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Posted: #37
Brian090,
Here is what the lines were yesterday for the games I bet on.

[1708] 1H PROVIDENCE u68½-110       35/26       Win

[708] PROVIDENCE u145½-110            68/67       Win

[1712] 1H TEMPLE u66-110                 17/32       Win

[712] TEMPLE u141-110                       46/69       Win

[1714] 1H DETROIT U u58½-110          20/17       Win

[714] DETROIT U u125½-110                53/46       Win

[1709] 1H VALPARAISO o61½-110       34/30       Win

[709] VALPARAISO o131½-110            71/66       Win

[1715] 1H NORTHEASTERN o66½-110    28/34       LOSE

[715] NORTHEASTERN o139½-110      60/69       LOSE

[1720] 1H LOYOLA CHICAGO u62½-110    38/31       LOSE

[720] LOYOLA CHICAGO u135-110      69/63       Win

[1718] 1H ILLINOIS CHICAGO u68-110     32/44       LOSE

[718] ILLINOIS CHICAGO u143-110     73/91       LOSE

[1722] 1H VILLANOVA u69-110           35/24       Win

[722] VILLANOVA u146½-110              67/68       Win

 
 
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Posted: #38

 Went 3-1 for the night:

Manhattan Over 134
Iona Over 139
Fairfield Under 142
UC Davis Over 126
 
Thus making the YTD Totals (14-6)
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