14-24 on Terp games this year (or soemthign along those not so good lines)
Ive semi-taken a few games off to try and get a handle on this team. I feel a little better that I see soem things that help me give decent advice on Terp plays. First, the offense is running better than two weeks ago. PeShon is playing less and things are imrpoving. Guys are going to the rim more aggressively. Layman is getting alot more playing time. Turge is sticking with fewer rotations for longer periods of time. All has helped matters some.
Terps host UVa today in what's a crucial game for both team's NCAA hopes. Terps are favored by 1.5, no total yet.
UVa plays painfully slow and will limit the amount of posessions you get. This is a bigger deal against teams that like to get out and run which unfortuntately is not the Terps anymore under Turge. I'm not happy about that but it's his style so we need to let it run its course because the good side is we rebound better as a team than any Terp team I can ever remember. UVa has some players and they shoot the ball pretty well. They're smart and want to hold the ball for 25+ seconds of every shot clock and then finish with a basket. They dismantled Clemson the other night at home but I think that's a Clemson team that has mailed it in and wasn't very good anyway. There are a couple things I really like for the Terps in this game today:
1) We don't need to run and won't look to much so their grind it out style won;t hurt as much. That takes their disadvnatge away on that area because it doesn't affect us as much as other teams.
2) We rebound very well, they are medicore so combine that with our ACC leading FG% defense and they'll need to find a way to get good looks and make them as they likely won;t get alot of second chances
3) Slower tempo hopefully means less TOs for the Terps as we won't need to hurry so much. There are guys on this team that want to run and ball and that's where we really get in trouble even as little as we push tempo anymore.
4) They have some size but our depth there is better.
5) They've been great at home and pretty shitty on the road. This is a big home game for the Terps where we've played well and have a little momentum. Crowd will be into it an protecting home court will be obvious.
6) Layman is a bit of a problem for teams and I expect him to start again. I think he becomes a key in this game becuase if he can go for 15+, I don't see any way we lose.
7) We've won the last two and Dez has been shitty. He is far too talented to stay that way and I look for him to be alot for the Hoos to handle. He's an NBA talent with a lot of muscle and I think he goes to the dribble drive alot today.
We will tunr the ball over and we we will get backdoored a few times today and look DUMB as S HIT. That's ok. We will also have some nice advantages. This one will likely be a low scoring game and no total yet. I think the -1.5 is a small spread to cover and I think the Terps win this one by 6+. I know UVa is 6-3 in the ACC but I also know the Terps have more talent than a 5-5 team AND have maybe played the toughest ACC schedule of anyone so far (@ Miami, @ Dook, @ UNC, NCSU).
Triple play on Terps -1.5 for the full game......one of the largest plays I will make most times. Tread as lightly as you want as I've been off for three games or so trying to get my arms around this very young team.
Terps -1 first half (double play)
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