Holmey's $$$$ Thread WEDNESDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.17.16

$$$$ THREAD CONCEPT - This thread is for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.

THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!

PLEASE make special note of this! If you have an area of expertise, please make some $$$$ choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "$$$$ PLAY". The difference between a PICK and a $$$$ PLAY is that a PICK is a game you like, a $$$$ PLAY is a game that you KNOW. If you are claiming your choice is a $$$$, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.

RULES FOR POSTING - We will not track your $$$$ PLAY if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, we won't be putting your $$$$ on the spreadsheet.

Only one $$$$  per day and a MAXIMUM of 4 per week. 

A week starts on Mon and ends on Sun.

- No buying points.

- No other "line-manipulations" like teasers, etc.

- No parlays

- No props

- $$$$ PLAYS need to be -129 or lower.  Anything -130 and over, take the -1.5 goals or runs.

- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the $$$$ doesn't go into the spreadsheet.

AND THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE!

You must give an ORIGINAL explanation as to why you KNOW this $$$$ PLAY will win. And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. DO NOT COPY YOUR WRITE-UPS! People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation.

FOLLOW THESE RULES AND YOUR $$$$ PICK WILL GET TRACKED

Thank you for your understanding and your help in keeping this thread for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.

Good luck today, everyone.......

I am going to step out of the SEC for a $$$$ play.  Will probably have a $$$$ play tonight on a SEC game as well. First, let's start with an Atlantic 10 match-up @ 6:00 EST.  My $$$$ play is on St. Joe's -2 -120.  If that is not allowed will still make the play at St Joe's -2.5.

This is really a gut play but do have some info to back it up. St Joe's has been playing very good hoops lately.  9-1 l/10, as is Dayton but the Hawks are 17-4-1 l/22 ats.  These 2 teams met once last year with Dayton pulling out a 4 pt home win. Last trip to Philly, Dayton loss to LaSalle on 1.8.16.  DeAndre Bembry & Isaiah Miles are playing very well right now with Miles hitting 88% from the stripe.

I think this game will be a very tough, defensive game that will come down to FT's.  St Joe's shoots 72% from the line, they are at home and a little bit of revenge from last year.  Let us not forget that Dayton is up by 1 game on St Joes in the Atlantic 10.  My common sense tells me St Joes wins this by 5+.  GLTA.

$$$$ play is St Joe's -2 -120 or St Joe's -2.5 if buying the 1/2 point is not acceptable.

anywhere to view spreadsheet results of $$$$ plays tracked?

I am 1-1 on my $$$$ plays.

Oklahoma (-5) @ Texas Tech

We get a pissed off Sooner squad, losers of 2 out of 3, heading into Lubbock to face a Red Raider team high on the hog after impressive wins over Iowa State and at Baylor.  A week ago could we have gotten this at (-5)?  No chance.

OU has been playing rather poorly since they peaked at #1 in the AP poll.  They're 3-3 on the road in Big 12 play, so they aren't invincible.  At the same time, Tech is only 3-3 defending their home court, so opportunity exists. 

The Sooners drilled Tech by 24 a few weeks back and that domination has to be a factor...not a revenge factor, rather a "we're better than you" factor. 

Both teams have motivation as OU needs some high RPI wins to get back to the #1 line while for the Red Raiders a win over the Sooners would go a long way to booking their ticket to the tourney.

A big factor in this game will be rebounding...Oklahoma is 1st while Tech is worst in the Big 12.  Spangler, Lattin and Cousins should be able to control the boards for the Sooners.  Oklahoma averages 6 boards/game more than Texas Tech and that's more chances for Hield to get loose. 

If Texas Tech is going to win this game it could be due to a strong shooting night from downtown.  That's not the Red Raiders strength either as OU shoots a full 11% better (44.3%-33%) from beyond the arc. 

All in all, I think we are getting a line that is 3-4 points better than it would have been 7-10 days ago.  I'll take the Sooners to get back on track and lay the wood...

Pick: Oklahoma (-5)

YTD-4-4 NCTARHEELS -6.5 GL everyone!

USC usually posts them daily at some point, however I read on yesterday's thread he was going be out of pocket the next few days so he might not be on thread as often. He will post them when he is though.

Boise St +4 @ New Mexico $$$$

Red Birds-5.5 $$$$ Play

Red Birds playing very well right now especially on defense. Revenge spot at home for Ill State vs Indy State. Red Birds playing great defense last several games vs some good teams. I think that's the difference maker in this game.

Right on Holmey. My $$$$ is St Joseph -2.5 for the reasons cited above.  GLTA

If anyone sees any updates about Colorado's Josh Scott, can you post them here?  Thanks!

watch out for St. Joe's line dropping!

$$$$ Illinois State -6

$$$$$ play: Temple +8.5 vs Villanova

Temple at home has pulled off some amazing upsets, don't sell them short: Connecticut, Tulsa, SMU, Cincinnati recently. Not saying they'll win out right, but they can make it interesting and stay within 9 points. Temple takes care of the ball and doesn't turn it over. The team has good passers top to bottom and seem to really limit mental errors. They are a slow, methodical team; they set up plays and don't force anything in transition. I have noticed they don't commit careless fouls. Against Villanova this will be huge, as Villanova doesn't miss free throws.

I don't need to talk about the Villanova's strengths, because they are obviously an amazing team. One thing I found interesting is Villanova gains a fairly high percentage of their points from three pointers, although they're not very good at shooting them (32%). Temple has a very stingy defense against the three (allowing only 30%).

Villanova last played at home against St. John's. The spread was almost 30 points, yet they only beat St. John's by 10. That's unacceptable for a team of their caliber. St. John's was in the game the entire way. That's what happens when Villanova can't hit the three (21% that game). I'm looking for the three pointer to be an indicator of this game. If Temple can contain it like they usually do, they'll be in the game. I'm hammering Temple.

Good luck today everyone...........

Holmey,

Naw, that's fine.  Discussion can be helpful, too.  I think Arizona is rolling, and ASU just doesn't have the horses.  Not playing it, though, I don't think, unless it drops a little more.  I know its a rivalry game, but Arizona just has too much skill for ASU and McHale will be hyped.

Going to get this in now that I have a few minutes and because I think it will go up as the day goes on......

$$$$ = USC/Colorado OVER 151

USC can light it up, especially at home.  Colorado has been scoring very well lately as well, and while I doubt they try to run with USC tonight, I also don't think they will deliberately try and slow the pace.  Regardless of whether Scott plays or not, I see USC getting into the mid 80's pretty easily, and they do, this goes over.  USC's offense is just too balanced for anyone to slow their scoring down at home and Colorado has not shown any real inclination to play shut down defense this year.  Hopefully we avoid a 30%-shooting night by one of the teams and this goes into the 160's easily.  Good luck everyone.

My $$$$ play.. Evansville over Drale.. my reasoning is, it's Evansville vs Drake need I say more