Holmey's $$$$ Thread MONDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 02.29.16

$$$$ THREAD CONCEPT - This thread is for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.

THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!

PLEASE make special note of this! If you have an area of expertise, please make some $$$$ choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "$$$$ PLAY". The difference between a PICK and a $$$$ PLAY is that a PICK is a game you like, a $$$$ PLAY is a game that you KNOW. If you are claiming your choice is a $$$$, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.

RULES FOR POSTING - We will not track your $$$$ PLAY if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, we won't be putting your $$$$ on the spreadsheet.

Only one $$$$  per day and a MAXIMUM of 4 per week. 

A week starts on Mon and ends on Sun.

- No buying points.

- No other "line-manipulations" like teasers, etc.

- No parlays

- No props

- $$$$ PLAYS need to be -129 or lower.  Anything -130 and over, take the -1.5 goals or runs.

- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the $$$$ doesn't go into the spreadsheet.

AND THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE!

You must give an ORIGINAL explanation as to why you KNOW this $$$$ PLAY will win. And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. DO NOT COPY YOUR WRITE-UPS! People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation.

FOLLOW THESE RULES AND YOUR $$$$ PICK WILL GET TRACKED

Thank you for your understanding and your help in keeping this thread for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.

$$$$ THREAD RESULTS/STANDINGS THRU FEB. 28

Saturday $$$$ W/L: 8-3-1 (with one pending)
TOTAL OVERALL W/L TO DATE: 177-139-6 (56.0%)

$$$$ OF THE DAY:
Goes to TopFlightSports and Dark_McGwire for the outright winner on Seton Hall.
STANDINGS:
I can't type out everyone's name any more here, so from now on, the Standings will show people who have made a minimum number of $$$$'s.

MINIMUM OF 4 $$$$'s MADE

THE ELITE EIGHT

THE BIG DOG
1. bubbaski27 (11-4-1)

2. rf_dawg (7-1)
3. wmi799 (9-3)
4. TopFlightSports (6-1)
5. gatorbear (7-2)
6. USC_Holmey (9-4-1)
7. jroc1247 (5-2)
T8. jimc0911 (6-3)
T8. Gtimebutler (6-3)

Profitable $$$$'ers
10. ncaabb (8-5)
11. SUPEREAGLE43 (3-1)
12. nfl_brosuf (8-6)
T13. jimmybigmits (3-2-1)
T13. Redbandit (3-2)
T13. Stu23 (3-2)
16. magiccarpetride (4-3)
17. FenwayFrank (5-4)

And the rest......
T18. TheKrew (4-4-2)
T18. Desertcapper (4-4)
20. BadTimes (5-5)
T21. bk1374 (2-3)
T21. wgomel21 (2-3)
T23. truthcapper (1-3-1)
T23. MercyRules (1-3)
T23. silversilver (1-3)
T23. Da_Oracle (1-3)
27. Appleton40 (2-4)
28. BarneysDad (1-4)
29. forty9ersfan80 (2-7)

Others  --- 3-0 - NicMittens, Xdresser
                  2-0 - Madden21

Thanks guys and good luck today!

Small card on Monday.  Save your $$$$ for later in the week unless you see something you just love.

Either way, best of luck today everyone!

$$$$ Syracuse +12.5. Syracuse 2nd ranked ACC team in three pointers made, like 7.5 a game. UNC very last in 3 pointers, just over 2 per game. Syracuse leads ACC in steals and forcing turnovers. Sure Heels are home on senior night, and with Duke on tap at Durham. I do not pretend to have a stat on Carolinas ATS record last recent years prior to Duke road game, but it is not goid, nor is their ATS season record. Boeheim and Orange will fight to the finish in this game. Last 5 meetings 2-2-1 SU AND ATS. The two wins at Dean Dome have been by 11 or less points. I bought the line up to 13. SYRACUSE +13$$$$

$$$$ Syracuse +12.5. Syracuse 2nd ranked ACC team in three pointers made, like 7.5 a game. UNC very last in 3 pointers, just over 2 per game. Syracuse leads ACC in steals and forcing turnovers. Sure Heels are home on senior night, and with Duke on tap at Durham. I do not pretend to have a stat on Carolinas ATS record last recent years prior to Duke road game, but it is not goid, nor is their ATS season record. Boeheim and Orange will fight to the finish in this game. Last 5 meetings 2-2-1 SU AND ATS. The two wins at Dean Dome have been by 11 or less points. I bought the line up to 13. SYRACUSE +13$$$$

$$$$ NBA Philadelphia vs. Washington (-11.5) 

Dutch Eerste Divisie (2nd Division) - Jong Ajax vs FC Dordrecht

 $$$$ pick: Jong Ajax vs FC Dordrecht over 3 (-123)

$$$$ plays year-to-date : 7 - 2
$$$$ plays last week : 4 - 0
non $$$$ plays given last week : 2 - 0

Not many games on the board tonight but one is calling my name.  May not be popular but it takes us to Austin, TX for the battle of the Jayhawks @ Longhorns.

Kansas has won 9 straight with a 80% ATS clip last 10.  Kansas blows away Texas in all offensive categories.  (Pts., FG, FT, 3 Pt. & Rebounds).  Kansas is also going for the straight out Big 12 title and will match the legendary John Wooden's run at UCLA  in the late 60's & early 70's of 12 straight conference titles.  Kansas has beat Texas 9 out of the last 10 meetings and has the series advantage 26-8. I am also looking for Perry Ellis to bounce back after that horrible outing vs Texas Tech.  I was also very impressed with the Jayhawks 66-60 victor against Baylor on 2.23.16. 

I have the upmost respect for Shaka Smart, think he one of the better coaches in college hoops.  But not tonight.

My $$$$ play for the day is Kansas -2. 

Waiting on the team total as well.  If the Kansas team total is 74 or less, I will be on the over Kansas tt.  The have scored 75 or more 6 of the last 10.

As always, GLTA

Lets start the week with one $$$$ pick

Kansas @ Texas
Really a tough game but if we see the recent form of both teams and the objectives of each team, will be more easy to decide.

Kansas - The first objective is simple, keep in the top of the table and beat Texas after Kansas beated TexasTech (After TexasTech Texas will be the next to fall don't you think?).
Second objective is clearly too, win ALL February games! In effect, Kansas Did not lose ny game on February.

If we see some statisics,
Texas is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Kansas and 1-5 SU when playing @ home.
Just one thing more, Cameron Ridley form the Longhorns will be injured, who averaged 12 PPG but I think its not some important, he was injured since December 2015.

Well, I know still a tough game but Kansas wants to demostrate who is the leader of the Conference Kansas games mix the massive offensive game with full defensive game, and my opinion is that the team that defense better, win the match.
Nothing else to say, Kansas 3pt% reaches 42% against 34% Texas, FT% 72 against 67% and FG% almost 50% against 44%.

I know my post is soo long but this is what I found out to bet on this game.

so $$$$ pick: Kansas -1,5
BOL to all!!

 On the soccer and Kansas. 

Since its gonna be a slow day, I may try break down the numbers a little and come up with some new percentages to help us out.

Good luck today everyone!

thanks for your kindness USC_Holmey !

USC_Holmey thanks for all the hard work! First plus week in a while. No plays today for you?

No sir.  I only bet on pac-12 games and I certainly would never post a $$$$ of anything that wasn't Pac-12.  Gotta wait for Wed or Thu for me.....

lol thanks man!

Not a very good card today but this week is going to have some great conference tournament games that I have been looking at.  

UNC -13.5

I love home teams in their last regular season home game... Haven't posted, but have been CRUSHING them over the last few days!
Seton Hall over Xavier
Pitt over Duke
Creighton over St. John's
Ohio St over Iowa
Memphis over Tulsa
Colorado over Ariz St
Wis over Michigan

And that was just yesterday alone!
Friday , Saturday were huge too...

Sticking with this trend:
Final regular season home game (cover regardless of the spread)

Haven't checked the #'s...but it's $$$$$

Good luck everyone

$$$$ Play Syracuse +13 against UNC (Play 1st half +7 too!)

The 206 under in the Nuggets game looks pretty tasty.  Last meeting was 102-101 total and both top scorers (Gasol and Gallinari) from that game are out for this one.

What a great thread. Figured I'd hop in here, just been waiting for the right $$$$play, and today I have it.

Let's go out west to Denver, for the Grizzlies Nuggets matchup. Denver is 11-17 at home, but that number is a little tricky, as they have been much better as of late, even handing GS one of their 5 losses. Memphis is coming off a road loss to lowly Phoenix, but I believe that had more to do with playing back to back days then anything else. The reason I make this my money play is two reasons. 1) Gallinari suffered an ankle injury and is going to miss a few weeks. Denver is going to miss his 19.5 a game. 2) Memphis even without Gasol is still a team that wears you down defensively, it's a bad matchup for the Denver who play no defense and rely on their scoring to win games. Without Gallinari, and team that plays D like Memphis, it's just a bad matchup for Denver. Memphis has won the last 5 meetings, and I expect them to make it 6 tonight. Getting this line cheap based on: gasol being out, Denver being good at home the last month and half. Gallinari being out, expected this to be -4 to -6, but it's not. Hop on it boys

Give me Memphis Grizzlies ML-140 for my $$$$ play, my first one on this thread.

No $$$$ play on Kansas tt over 72-115.

GLTA

Also leaning stars ml over red wings, but not enough for money play.