***GWarner27's Pre-Season NCAAB Thread***

WCC Tiers:
GONZ/SMC-BYU/SC/USF-LMU-POR-USD/PEP

pre-season champion: Gonzaga

Explanation:
-Gonzaga looks really good yet again, as they've dominated this conference forever. Their frontcourt is surprisingly their strength now and they have some great size up there. Robert Sacre, who's been in college for at least 11 years, is huge but he can't score anywhere but the line and if people don't foul him GU is much worse. Elias Harris was bad last year, maybe due to injury, but he's a very talented player who should be much better this year. The backcourt is a major concern here because they return a converted PG and a back-up, while they'll be relying on newcomers for a lot of production.
-Randy Bennett was pissed when his Gaels got left out of the tournament last year, but they should have been after how terrible they were at the end of the season. They lost a leader in McConnell, but Dellavedova is basically the same player and they have some other pieces that can try to replace him. Expect their 3pt shooting to be down a bit, but they should be better inside thanks to a good scorer in Rob Jones returning and adding a 7-foot transfer.

Bubble teams: BYU, Santa Clara, San Francisco
-BYU looks nothing like they were the past few years. Lost Jimmer and a very good but unheralded guard in Jackson Emery, too. Frontcourt is soft and Davies wasn't that good despite what you'd think with all the story surround his suspension. They're going to be a tough adjustment for the rest of the conference, especially on the road, but this season will test my high opinion of Dave Rose because they don't look good in the backcourt.
-Kevin Foster will determine how Santa Clara performs. He's been great, and he has help in a returning PG and an inside scorer in Trasolini. Frontcourt depth a question, like it is for a lot of teams.
-San Francisco returns all five scorers and they will be able to exploit other teams with their two good wing players. Size will be a problem up front, though.

Great Read   Brother 

Like last year I think the Zags will beat up on the WCC but struggle out of conference against better teams. I just don't think they have the point guard play and you need that when facing top teams. The oddsmakers are always generous with Gonzaga so I will be looking to against them if the lines are soft when they play more athletic teams early in the year.

thanks for all the great work warner.

Arizona losing Kevin Parrom (their best player) with a gun shot wound to the leg is going to hurt if hes not ready to go by Pac-12 play.

Turner is a stud at PG, and its really the first time Miller has had a PG of his caliber, even on his Xavier squads.  In addition, you are going to see UA play exactly like Miller's very successful Xavier teams.  10 deep, cutting off the lane on defense, ball pressure, a fast pace, and 4-6 guys averaging 9 points.

UCLA should be interesting to watch, because I really dont think the Wear twins are going to make a huge impact, but they have so much depth in the frontcourt that they are going to be a very difficult team to defend and beat.

I really like Cal.  I know they are flashy, but theyve been solid for the last 2 years, and I think this is Monty's best shot at a Pac-12 title in years.  They are solid 1-8 and just seem to hang around in every game, except now those players are all upperclassmen and should be winning games, not just hanging around.

Oregon is the sleeper.  No chance they win the conference, but I can see them coming alive once Pac-12 play starts.  Altman has a good thing going in Eugene already.

They are routinely more prepared than their opponent in the non-conference, just didn't play very well last year I think because of the poor backcourt.

If it hasn't been figured out already, Sacre can't score when he doesn't go to the line so just don't foul him and he's useless on offense. Now he's probably worked on finishing on the interior over the offseason, but he still needs to prove to me that he is the dominant force he can be when you consider the height and the athletic ability.

Now Elias Harris was nursing injuries last year, or at least that's what has been reported. I don't know if he bought into his hype too much and just didn't respond to people trying to shut him down on offense last year or what, but he's in a similar boat where I don't see him doing much in half-court games besides rebounding. He certainly can get out in transition, but how is Gonzaga going to do that now that the speedster Demetri Goodson gave up basketball to play football at Baylor. I mean he was awful in the half-court and couldn't shoot, I just think there's a ton of pressure going on Marquise Carter who only took over the PG role late in the year. Clearly they didn't think or want to use him there so I'm not exactly sure we can expect him to produce and Stockton's kid is just tiny and not as talented as his dad.

I wouldn't necessarily say they're a good fade against athletic teams because their size can really affect those squads, but they're certainly not as good as some of the press they're receiving

Thanks for the love, D, unfortunately a ton of the best ones have moved on over the years.

I feel awful not being able to name everybody off the top of my head, but NRopp11 is a guy who I make sure to read every week and I know TRoe15 and I have been here since I first learned about covers many moons ago. There's certainly others, but I don't think you can go wrong heading in their threads once a day 

Thanks for the response, TC

I heard about Parrom's situation and man it's sad, but they gotta move on.

Derrick Williams was their heart-n-soul and I'm not sure they can come close to replacing him unless Josiah is better than advertised (which is pretty good already). Gonna need someone inside to prove they can score, although the backcourt looks very deep (throw Solomon in here because he's more of a guard than a forward despite his height).

Ucla has a ton to prove, but we'll know early whether they have a point guard or don't. You can't just build one during the season.

Cal I have no trust in and I don't see where they're flashy because I don't think they can score reliably against some sort of defense, while Oregon is a team that will take a while to gel and I think we'll see some opportunity in conference play if they take the early lumps like we're expecting

GW, Do you happen to remember the name of the guy who was really good at picking games in the mid-american conf.

Sorry I meant they arent flashy.  Theyve been that gritty Pac-12 team that always spoils a home stand against the bay area schools.  However, I think they have too much upperclassmen and talent to not make a serious run at the Pac-12 title.

i would guess NRopp11, but I can't say I focus on the MAC too often

Double

they may be the team for that still, I just don't see them being a team that others are truly scared of unless they start the year with a crazy win streak (which may be the case because their only tough OOC game is @UNLV two games before conference play starts)

Xavier is going to be a Final Four dark horse this year.  Last year's uncharacteristic early exit was not totally unexpected because of a major lack of depth (really just 6-7 deep) and having to rely so heavily on Holloway.  This year, Tu will have more weapons around him than he's going to know what to do with.  I'm not crazy of the idea of going ten deep usually, but it's going to be hard to keep at least 10 guys off the floor this year.  

Great thread

Thanks for the hard work you're giving away 50%, 50%, 50%, 50%, 59%....tbh it sounds like when I started gambling. My first few yrs were tough and then all of a sudden I had a really nice yr. It all kinda came together for me  It doesn't get easier but the experience leads to better decision making. I see another good year for you GWarner I will definatly be visiting your thread often. Best of luck to you

DO-- I'm sure I'll revert back to the mean, but like I already mentioned my goal is +20U and if I only hit 55% on the way to get there I'll just have to settle for that

thanks for the info, PMI, I actually thought Andre Walker had to sit out a year as I didn't realize he had already graduated

CAA Tiers:
VCU-WMU/GMU-DREX/JMU/ODU/NE-HOF-WILM/DEL-GASt/TOW

pre-season champion: VCU

Explanation:
-Shaka Smart made a bad decision not to take a better job last offseason, especially when you consider how much he lost from the team. The Rams came out of nowhere as their resume wasn't NCAA tournament worthy, but they caught fire with their fast pace and their streaky 3pt shooters hitting their shots for five straight victories. They lost their PG, who was huge for their offense, but they do return a replacement. Distribution should be down, as should interior scoring because Jamie Skeen was tremendous for them. He could put the ball in the basket everywhere on the court, including stepping out past the 3pt line, which they can't replace. Better shotblockers and a little more size in the lineup, but decreases at PG and with the loss of a few 3pt shooters that were key to the run. Team should be good, but they need people to step up and fill gaps, which will be very tough to do.
-Bill and Mary lost a ton from their '09 team to last year's '10 squad, but it looks like they have some solid players returning. Their 2009 team played very well at times, even played UNC in the NIT that year and covered the spread for me, but had to rebuild in 2010. The 2011 version of the Tribe returns their backcourt with an impressive 3pt shooter (45% in 2010), also have a talented sophomore big guy who can play in the post who will develop with more minutes this year.

2010 Tourney Qualifiers:
-Old Dominion will be down this year. They will still play the good defense and the low possession games, but they are without their stud on the interior and lost their PG among other key contributors. Returning is their lone 3pt shooter, an awesome wing defender who hasn't shown anything on offense (especially at the free throw line) and a versatile interior player who hasn't shown he can be relied on to score. I don't expect them to make the tournament again, but they have a damn good coach so the postseason is a definite possibility.
-Losing Jim Larranaga is tough for George Mason because he built that program. Replacing him is Paul Hewitt, who couldn't do enough with much better players in the ACC. That's not a good sign, neither are the depth questions with graduation taking its toll and then their best returner transferring out of the program. Making the postseason is in serious doubt.

 BUMP

Big fan of the Colonial. ODU will certainly be down a few notches and could struggle quite a bit in the early-going untill CAA Defense POY Kent Bazemore returns from injury.

They'll certainly face Northern Iowa and South Florida without him, as well as possibly Kentucky, Fairfield, Northeastern, UCF and Richmond as well.

Tough schedule for the Monarchs.