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FOUND A SYSTEM THAT WORKS FOR CBB !!!!!!!!

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Posted: #101
i am going to look into this a little bit more as it is an interesting idea but i think it needs further adjusting for sure.
 
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Posted: #102
If every one did there math...the platform was set at...136- bet under...149+ bet over...this is what you should have come up with -

BG/Ohio - 124 under...probability 92.3%
Akr/Mia(OH) - 123.5 under...probability 31.25%
SDSt/Wyo - 135.5 under...probability 33.33%(this line is at 137 now) NP
MizzSt/Creighton - 129 under...probability 24%
Geo/Kent - 130.5 under...probability 30%

The rest right now for probability would be a 38-42% guess...less odds than a coin flip...So as I see it the system today would go 1-4...20%...that is just today...no my %"s are not mixed up...thats not to say tomorrow it goes 5-0...like I said on a earlier post pick a conference and run your own math...I did all the games today because there weren't that many...and if you can get on the right side of the numbers you could get 79% or more...your pick for today is -

BG/Ohio under 124...92.30%

Good Luck All

BRING IT
 
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Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by papicker:

i am going to look into this a little bit more as it is an interesting idea but i think it needs further adjusting for sure.
Wow !! Your work on this is appreciated !!
 
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Posted: #104
200-182 for feb 1-feb 18 and chan how do u get bg ohio is 92% if you give me 2-1 odds that goes over id take it for any amount
 
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Posted: #105
Very interesting system. Thanks for posting and I'll give it a shot. I think it can be a good chaser system.
 
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Posted: #106

Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

Wow !! Your work on this is appreciated !!

 

im good at math and it gives me something to do.  when i was researching this i noticed some things and ill be looking into these further.

 
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Posted: #107
I've been working on something similiar for the NBA, but it's only hitting in the low 50's.  Started out with anything 185 and below, go under, and anything 205 and above, go over.  Anything in between is left alone.  I'm going to adjust these even further since it's the start of the 2nd half of the season.  Will let everyone know what I come up with in a week or two.
 
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Posted: #108
Forgot to add, why ridicule Frank for something he's obviously been working on for awhile.  It takes time to do this type of research, especially three years of it.  Closing lines vary from anywhere from  a 1/2 point to 1 point and can make or break a bet.  It all depends upon where you're getting your closing numbers.  We all know that there are a number of games every year that win or lose by 1/5 to a point.  I, myself, in order to avoid anyone questioning my numbers, do not include wins or losses of less than 2 points either direction in order to not skew the percentages in case someone else wants to research my findings.  Perhaps it would be a good idea for this system, to do the same thing and see what the numbers produce.
 
 
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Posted: #109
 
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Posted: #110
here is another thought - Weekend games go over, teams who have to play on quick turnaround for Big Monday - go under
 
Syracuse/Louisville last night - Under by 30 points (both played overs on Saturday)
Texas/A&M last night - under (Texas/Baylor was in the 160's on Saturday night)
 
 
i've watched my buddy who bets overs go 0-2 for 4 straight monday nights on Big Monday games..
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by seaotter:

Forgot to add, why ridicule Frank for something he's obviously been working on for awhile.  It takes time to do this type of research, especially three years of it.  Closing lines vary from anywhere from  a 1/2 point to 1 point and can make or break a bet.  It all depends upon where you're getting your closing numbers.  We all know that there are a number of games every year that win or lose by 1/5 to a point.  I, myself, in order to avoid anyone questioning my numbers, do not include wins or losses of less than 2 points either direction in order to not skew the percentages in case someone else wants to research my findings.  Perhaps it would be a good idea for this system, to do the same thing and see what the numbers produce.
 

 

i think more people were slamming his 79% claim then his research

 
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Posted: #112
Papicker, I understand that, but has anyone proven him wrong yet.  All I'm saying is, people shouldn't slam him until they can prove him wrong.  I mean, what if I came in here and said that I have a system that a perfect 100%, going 23-0 since 1996.  Are people in here going to believe me, or are they going to slam me saying I've made up those numbers and it's not possible.  Until people do their research, they shouldn't be slammin, no matter what the claim.   I won't discount the guy until I track it for a week or two, then see what the number say and then the truth will be known.  It's like they say, numbers don't lie!!!  And by the way, the 23-0 system is the Acela angle used in the NBA, and yes, going into this NBA season, it was 19-0.  It's presented itself four times this year, and is 4-0.  There are two more times that it could possibly work, but we'll have to wait and see.
 
 
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Posted: #113
I won't have time to check into this system until at least the weekend, but i wonder if it's possible to eliminate plays by watching the line movements??
 
 
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Posted: #114
ACELA Angle...OMG!!
 
the ACELA is crazy....I can't wait to see if NYK beats Detriot on March 7! LOL
 
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Posted: #115
 
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Posted: #116
MLKing, yeah, but Charlotte is up 1st on the Feb 27th playing NYK.
 
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Posted: #117
Seaotter,
 
I know..I was checking out the remaining ACELA Angle Sched...
 
The Bobcats acela sched makes a little sense...
But Det beating Celts at Bos then Losing to NYK at MSG? its possible...but i'd love to see this hot streak continue on...
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #118
Yeah, I see your point.  Would love to see pistons beat Boston.  Droolin' just thinking about that NYK moneyline.  LOL
 
 
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Posted: #119
OK I'm up pretty big since the weekend and threw 50 on every game tonight that fit the criteria
 
Pending Wagers
Result       Credit Debit  
#14676973

02/19/2008  6:00:00 PM		 CB Point Total Under 125(-110)
BOWLING GREEN vs OHIO
$ 55.00 wagered to win $ 50.00 at 02/19/2008 2:47:16 PM		 COMMITTED     $ 55.00
#14676974

02/19/2008  6:00:00 PM		 CB Point Total Under 122.5(-110)
WICHITA ST vs INDIANA ST
$ 55.00 wagered to win $ 50.00 at 02/19/2008 2:47:16 PM		 COMMITTED     $ 55.00
#14676975

02/19/2008  6:30:00 PM		 CB Point Total Under 124(-110)
AKRON vs MIAMI OHIO
$ 55.00 wagered to win $ 50.00 at 02/19/2008 2:47:16 PM		 COMMITTED     $ 55.00
#14676988

02/19/2008  6:00:00 PM		 CB Point Total Under 133.5(-105)
PURDUE vs INDIANA
Half Juice Special / On ESPN
$ 52.50 wagered to win $ 50.00 at 02/19/2008 2:50:04 PM		 COMMITTED     $ 52.50
#14676989

02/19/2008  8:00:00 PM		 CB Point Total Under 114.5(-110)
NORTHWESTERN vs IOWA
$ 55.00 wagered to win $ 50.00 at 02/19/2008 2:50:04 PM		 COMMITTED     $ 55.00
#14676990

02/19/2008  8:00:00 PM		 CB Point Total Under 136.5(-110)
SAN DIEGO ST vs WYOMING
$ 55.00 wagered to win $ 50.00 at 02/19/2008 2:50:04 PM		 COMMITTED     $ 55.00
#14676991

02/19/2008  8:00:00 PM		 CB Point Total Under 131.5(-110)
GEORGIA vs KENTUCKY
On ESPN
$ 55.00 wagered to win $ 50.00 at 02/19/2008 2:50:04 PM		 COMMITTED     $ 55.00
#14676992

02/19/2008  8:00:00 PM		 CB Point Total Under 129(-110)
MISSOURI ST vs CREIGHTON
On ESPNU
$ 55.00 wagered to win $ 50.00 at 02/19/2008 2:50:04 PM		 COMMITTED     $ 55.00
 
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Posted: #120
Wow, nothing like jumping in with both feet!!!!
 
GL   Hope you hit them all!!!!
 
 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by seaotter:

Papicker, I understand that, but has anyone proven him wrong yet.  All I'm saying is, people shouldn't slam him until they can prove him wrong.  I mean, what if I came in here and said that I have a system that a perfect 100%, going 23-0 since 1996.  Are people in here going to believe me, or are they going to slam me saying I've made up those numbers and it's not possible.  Until people do their research, they shouldn't be slammin, no matter what the claim.   I won't discount the guy until I track it for a week or two, then see what the number say and then the truth will be known.  It's like they say, numbers don't lie!!!  And by the way, the 23-0 system is the Acela angle used in the NBA, and yes, going into this NBA season, it was 19-0.  It's presented itself four times this year, and is 4-0.  There are two more times that it could possibly work, but we'll have to wait and see.
 

 

i think we did prove this guy wrong already by proving that this has only hit in the low 50s since beginning of january.  it would have to be like 85-90% the rest of the time to be true.  there is no way in hell this hits at 79%.  i think the theories behind it are solid but it needs some tweaking and im looking through games to see if i can find some sort of a pattern.  i do think somewhere in the range of 55-60 percent is possible. i currently have this around 52.7%

 
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Posted: #122
GL WKUFAN....
 
hopefully this system hits at 60% or higher
 
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Posted: #123
Thanks papicker.  Would like to see the results.
 
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Posted: #124
Quote Originally Posted by seaotter:

Thanks papicker.  Would like to see the results.

that acela is quite interesting.  wonder why that is.  im leaving this hellhole job soon and ill be able to look at this a little closer.  like i said when i did the initial research i did see a bit of a pattern in some places but i wasnt really looking for one now its time to break this thing down a little more.

 
 
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Posted: #125
what is the acela angle???
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