funny you bash someone for going with a guy who puts his name out there and charges for his picks, however you're going with a guy who hides behind an avatar and gives his picks for pleasure.
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Quote Originally Posted by moosehunter:
who give a flying fuck about a tout............
funny you bash someone for going with a guy who puts his name out there and charges for his picks, however you're going with a guy who hides behind an avatar and gives his picks for pleasure.
12/21 Non-Conference Notes: Tennessee traveled to USC last year and lost by 20. Tennessee’s played a few bad games, yes, but they have revenge and face a team that had a chance to knock off a tough Kansas team on Saturday. Youngstown State is 0-5 on the road and hasn’t been close in any of them outside the first roady of the year. Long Beach State has been on the road all of December, with the latest three being Utah State, North Carolina, and St. Mary’s. This is the last road game of “big name” proportions, so there may be some value, but they haven’t been the same defensively without Anderson and they open up conference play in a week. Arizona State isn’t all that great offensively, but they have a solid defense and play a really slow tempo with its matchup zone which should give LBSTU some fits. I would probably equate Long Beach State’s offensive style of play to Baylor and that game with Baylor only totaled 122 (Baylor has a much better defense though). I just think the road trip’s got to come to a screeching halt on the offensive side of things when you play a tough matchup zone and a much slower pace than the previous two games. Little concerned about the halt coming on the defensive side of things as well, so I’ll probably just lean. We should see a focused ASU defense after giving up 75 to Nevada. Couple key injuries in the VCU/UAB game, so I’ll pass on that, but it should be a pretty decent enjoyable game to watch. Louisiana Tech is out to a 9-4 record, but they’ve done it against one of the easiest strength of schedule’s in the country with road losses at Northwestern State, McNeese State, and Arky LR. Wichita State’s won every home game this year by at least ten, but they get a step up in talent tonight. UNLV’s got big revenge from a game last year which saw Kansas State make 14 three-pointers. Kansas State currently comes off a game where they only made 15 FG’s. They’ve really struggled against the two teams on their schedule this year who can score and defend in Duke and Florida. Yes, they beat a good defensive squad in Virginia Tech, but there offense is nothing special. This is also really UNLV’s last shot at a big win outside of conference play. Kansas State really has no one outside of Pullen at the guard spot that is a threat, and while Pullen is putting up some good numbers, he is forcing some shots and his percentages are down from a year ago with Clemente on the team at that time. UNLV’s depth and pressure on the guards is the reason that they are viewed as an upper tier team and that comes into play here. They have forced 217 turnovers, and 107 steals. They go 6, sometimes 7 deep at the guard spot. This has always been Kruger’s focus. Get the other guards out of their comfort zone, and they should do that tonight, more so than ever as Kansas State is easily one of the worst FT shooting teams in the country. I’m going to assume that those guards that pressure the piss outta the ball will take even more chances because of this. Kansas State has a pretty big advantage inside, but I think this game is won at the guard spot. UNLV rebounded with them well last year, and they forcing quite a few turnovers, but the tempo was too fast and KST was on fire from long distance. This is also Coach Kruger going against his alma mater. They have two losses on the year, with one being to Louisville (who is better both offensively and defensively than KST), and the other being to UC Santa Barbara in a game they shot 27%. The team has nothing to lose in tonight’s game, and they should give it their best shot. New Mexico State and Lafayette played to a total of 168 earlier this year, but there are some injury concerns and Lafayette hasn’t been scoring too high on the road at all. Like the Troy over. Western Michigan will not shy away from going up and down against an awful defense team in Troy, and Troy will almost for certain like to get out and go. Both teams are familiar with defending the dribble-drive motion offense as Troy runs it now and WMU ran it the past few years. Should be some easy points scored here. Looked at the Fresno/Pacific matchup for a while, would probably lean Fresno’s way if Shepp is eligible tonight, but I don’t see anything. He’s a HUGE boost to that lineup in terms of guard play.
Bets
Eastern Kentucky +2 (3 Units)
Troy/Western Michigan Over 145 (2 Units)
UNLV +3.5 (1 Unit)
DNP: Eastern Kentucky/Tenny State Under 138.5, Morehead State +2.5, Long Beach State/Arizona State Under 139.5, Eastern Illinois +2.5
GL
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12/21 Non-Conference Notes: Tennessee traveled to USC last year and lost by 20. Tennessee’s played a few bad games, yes, but they have revenge and face a team that had a chance to knock off a tough Kansas team on Saturday. Youngstown State is 0-5 on the road and hasn’t been close in any of them outside the first roady of the year. Long Beach State has been on the road all of December, with the latest three being Utah State, North Carolina, and St. Mary’s. This is the last road game of “big name” proportions, so there may be some value, but they haven’t been the same defensively without Anderson and they open up conference play in a week. Arizona State isn’t all that great offensively, but they have a solid defense and play a really slow tempo with its matchup zone which should give LBSTU some fits. I would probably equate Long Beach State’s offensive style of play to Baylor and that game with Baylor only totaled 122 (Baylor has a much better defense though). I just think the road trip’s got to come to a screeching halt on the offensive side of things when you play a tough matchup zone and a much slower pace than the previous two games. Little concerned about the halt coming on the defensive side of things as well, so I’ll probably just lean. We should see a focused ASU defense after giving up 75 to Nevada. Couple key injuries in the VCU/UAB game, so I’ll pass on that, but it should be a pretty decent enjoyable game to watch. Louisiana Tech is out to a 9-4 record, but they’ve done it against one of the easiest strength of schedule’s in the country with road losses at Northwestern State, McNeese State, and Arky LR. Wichita State’s won every home game this year by at least ten, but they get a step up in talent tonight. UNLV’s got big revenge from a game last year which saw Kansas State make 14 three-pointers. Kansas State currently comes off a game where they only made 15 FG’s. They’ve really struggled against the two teams on their schedule this year who can score and defend in Duke and Florida. Yes, they beat a good defensive squad in Virginia Tech, but there offense is nothing special. This is also really UNLV’s last shot at a big win outside of conference play. Kansas State really has no one outside of Pullen at the guard spot that is a threat, and while Pullen is putting up some good numbers, he is forcing some shots and his percentages are down from a year ago with Clemente on the team at that time. UNLV’s depth and pressure on the guards is the reason that they are viewed as an upper tier team and that comes into play here. They have forced 217 turnovers, and 107 steals. They go 6, sometimes 7 deep at the guard spot. This has always been Kruger’s focus. Get the other guards out of their comfort zone, and they should do that tonight, more so than ever as Kansas State is easily one of the worst FT shooting teams in the country. I’m going to assume that those guards that pressure the piss outta the ball will take even more chances because of this. Kansas State has a pretty big advantage inside, but I think this game is won at the guard spot. UNLV rebounded with them well last year, and they forcing quite a few turnovers, but the tempo was too fast and KST was on fire from long distance. This is also Coach Kruger going against his alma mater. They have two losses on the year, with one being to Louisville (who is better both offensively and defensively than KST), and the other being to UC Santa Barbara in a game they shot 27%. The team has nothing to lose in tonight’s game, and they should give it their best shot. New Mexico State and Lafayette played to a total of 168 earlier this year, but there are some injury concerns and Lafayette hasn’t been scoring too high on the road at all. Like the Troy over. Western Michigan will not shy away from going up and down against an awful defense team in Troy, and Troy will almost for certain like to get out and go. Both teams are familiar with defending the dribble-drive motion offense as Troy runs it now and WMU ran it the past few years. Should be some easy points scored here. Looked at the Fresno/Pacific matchup for a while, would probably lean Fresno’s way if Shepp is eligible tonight, but I don’t see anything. He’s a HUGE boost to that lineup in terms of guard play.
Bets
Eastern Kentucky +2 (3 Units)
Troy/Western Michigan Over 145 (2 Units)
UNLV +3.5 (1 Unit)
DNP: Eastern Kentucky/Tenny State Under 138.5, Morehead State +2.5, Long Beach State/Arizona State Under 139.5, Eastern Illinois +2.5
The Kstate game scares me, Kstate is so long and they are all over the offensive boards. I like UNLV if they can keep Kstate off the boards. Do you think they can? I guess if the cant then all they have to do is foul them LOL
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The Kstate game scares me, Kstate is so long and they are all over the offensive boards. I like UNLV if they can keep Kstate off the boards. Do you think they can? I guess if the cant then all they have to do is foul them LOL
funny you bash someone for going with a guy who puts his name out there and charges for his picks, however you're going with a guy who hides behind an avatar and gives his picks for pleasure.
thanks neil...i am more than happy with your freebies.......
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Quote Originally Posted by coversROTHSTEIN:
funny you bash someone for going with a guy who puts his name out there and charges for his picks, however you're going with a guy who hides behind an avatar and gives his picks for pleasure.
thanks neil...i am more than happy with your freebies.......
Wow, I had Tenn State on a 4 tmer, but lost it with NWestern... big game tomorrow for Detroit, -1 @ Bradley, I love Detroit to continue their upswing......... wrogn team is favored. What ya say NRopp?
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Wow, I had Tenn State on a 4 tmer, but lost it with NWestern... big game tomorrow for Detroit, -1 @ Bradley, I love Detroit to continue their upswing......... wrogn team is favored. What ya say NRopp?
Meant to take UNLV but completely forgot. I wonder where K-St thinks their season is going w/out a pg (playing Pullen there and completely ruining their offense).
Go Bucks!
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Meant to take UNLV but completely forgot. I wonder where K-St thinks their season is going w/out a pg (playing Pullen there and completely ruining their offense).
12/21 Results: 2-1 bets to juice, 4-0 leans. Picking the wrong games. Tennessee continues it’s slide. Valpo and Oakland both top 100. Louisiana Tech’s road losses continue to be awful. SEMO has won two conference games…in a row. Big win for Eastern Illinois on the road. I still leaned that way despite no Laser yesterday due to McKinney stepping in his place and he has not disappointed in two straight games. I will be curious to see if they deploy three guards when he gets back, could be a big boost to their offense. Not so big showing from Eastern Kentucky, can’t really win too many games shooting 30% from the field. I would’ve thought if they give up 62, then it’s a ballgame. No clue what’s going on in Fresno, Greg Smith only gets 3 shot attempts?
Sides: 28-20, +9.70
Totals: 17-9, +6.80
DNP: 35-25
12/22 Notes: There probably won’t be much breakdown today, just some one liners; this card is too big. Do them in segments. No D’Aundray Brown yet for Cleveland State, and South Florida has GIANTS down low which could be a big advantage against a CSU team that has trouble grabbling rebounds. It’s a pretty big spot for Cleveland State and a resume booster as well. Somewhat a first true road game for East Carolina as they go to George Washington. I’ve commented on the # of shots that GW usually takes in a game despite playing a middle of the road pace, so I’m assuming they get close to 50 up again here. Last year’s meeting did include 132 shots and went over this listed total in regulation. Gut’s telling me over there. Both UCF and Umass are pretty good defensive ballclubs. I figured UCF would be playing much slower than what its current form is so I’m going under here with UCF coming off a big win and Umass having 11 days off after allowing 100+ points to Seton Hall. I’m going to assume much of the past week’s practice was dedicated to defense. Dayton could be in a tough spot if they don’t slow the pace, they can’t really score with Seton Hall. Pope’s questionable, and they just lost some much needed depth down low in Hall transferring out, so this could be a factor.
Bets
UCF/Umass Under 142 (1 Unit)
DNP: East Carolina/George Washington Over 136
GL
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12/21 Results: 2-1 bets to juice, 4-0 leans. Picking the wrong games. Tennessee continues it’s slide. Valpo and Oakland both top 100. Louisiana Tech’s road losses continue to be awful. SEMO has won two conference games…in a row. Big win for Eastern Illinois on the road. I still leaned that way despite no Laser yesterday due to McKinney stepping in his place and he has not disappointed in two straight games. I will be curious to see if they deploy three guards when he gets back, could be a big boost to their offense. Not so big showing from Eastern Kentucky, can’t really win too many games shooting 30% from the field. I would’ve thought if they give up 62, then it’s a ballgame. No clue what’s going on in Fresno, Greg Smith only gets 3 shot attempts?
Sides: 28-20, +9.70
Totals: 17-9, +6.80
DNP: 35-25
12/22 Notes: There probably won’t be much breakdown today, just some one liners; this card is too big. Do them in segments. No D’Aundray Brown yet for Cleveland State, and South Florida has GIANTS down low which could be a big advantage against a CSU team that has trouble grabbling rebounds. It’s a pretty big spot for Cleveland State and a resume booster as well. Somewhat a first true road game for East Carolina as they go to George Washington. I’ve commented on the # of shots that GW usually takes in a game despite playing a middle of the road pace, so I’m assuming they get close to 50 up again here. Last year’s meeting did include 132 shots and went over this listed total in regulation. Gut’s telling me over there. Both UCF and Umass are pretty good defensive ballclubs. I figured UCF would be playing much slower than what its current form is so I’m going under here with UCF coming off a big win and Umass having 11 days off after allowing 100+ points to Seton Hall. I’m going to assume much of the past week’s practice was dedicated to defense. Dayton could be in a tough spot if they don’t slow the pace, they can’t really score with Seton Hall. Pope’s questionable, and they just lost some much needed depth down low in Hall transferring out, so this could be a factor.
12/22 Notes Cont’d: No interest in Detroit continuing the road trip, and Bradley’s lone other PG (Simms-Edwards) hasn’t practiced or played in two weeks and is probably doubtful with conference play starting in a week. Bradley’s lone win after all these injuries to the PG spot is Jackson State. Probably some strong value on Detroit going into what use to be a tough place to play, but it’s not tough this year if EIU and Utah can do it, no reason why Detroit can’t. Probably missing a very good opportunity here. Louisville first road game, and these two teams put up 170+ last year, but lesser offense this year and there was a ton of FT’s shot in that game. Duquesne’s 3 losses have come to the only top 100 defenses they’ve face this year. Their fourth loss was to the #105 Penn State defense. George Mason 2nd game of a roady, but definite value with this defense. Northern Illinois’ pace and lack of defense should pretty much allow Southern to put up points whenever it wants tonight. Southern has always been built on defense, but they’re lacking in that department this year in terms of talent. They’ve put together a solid team defense, but it’s not the same what it was. The pace ranking don’t show it, but this is a team built to run with its guards and big men stepping out. Listed total might be a bit high but no reason SIU doesn’t hit 80+ here. North Texas plays fast, which makes an under scary, but the only time they’ve played a top 100 defense this year was Kansas and they scored 60 in that game. Florida Atlantic is playing a 5th straight road game to end their current road trip, while Depaul has played four straight at home. Neither of these offenses scare me and if Florida Atlantic is going to have a chance (which the line suggests), they gotta slow it down, which is what they will probably do to an extent considering the three other games they played this year against big names they scored 66, 50, and 61. Depaul matches up here against some pretty decent guards, but they shut down MKE’s guard slots and played well enough to win against Loyola CHI’s guard spots, so this one gets my under. Pretty big game for Illinois, already offered my thoughts. They got caught looking ahead to Missouri in the loss to UIC. They have too much depth and too solid of guard play too struggle against the press. They match up extremely well defensively too. My guess is you see an entire 360 of what you saw on Saturday. If they bring their A game, this is a rout. Definite value in anything under a possession. You need two things to beat Missouri, guards who can handle the ball and depth that can contribute. Illinois has more than enough of both, a ton of value here. Boise State and Portland should be a good game with some decent matchups. Boise’s defense sort of took a hit on the last road trip, so should be some focus there going on the road again. Portland’s been on the road for four straight and comes home here. This game smells of under, but Portland’s ability to knock down the three-ball and do it well is keeping me off. Revenge game for Oregon State as UIC travels across country after its biggest win in recent years against Illinois with a conference game on deck. Oregon State Coach Robinson has enough ties learn about Illinois-Chicago as he was a former assistant at Northwestern. Yes, they’re coming off a loss to George Washington, but GW never shoots 54% in a game. This is a perfect spot for a UIC letdown with travel added in.
Bets
Oregon State -5
Florida Atlantic/Depaul Under 142.5
DNP: Detroit +1, Northern Illinois/Southern Illinois Over 145
GL
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12/22 Notes Cont’d: No interest in Detroit continuing the road trip, and Bradley’s lone other PG (Simms-Edwards) hasn’t practiced or played in two weeks and is probably doubtful with conference play starting in a week. Bradley’s lone win after all these injuries to the PG spot is Jackson State. Probably some strong value on Detroit going into what use to be a tough place to play, but it’s not tough this year if EIU and Utah can do it, no reason why Detroit can’t. Probably missing a very good opportunity here. Louisville first road game, and these two teams put up 170+ last year, but lesser offense this year and there was a ton of FT’s shot in that game. Duquesne’s 3 losses have come to the only top 100 defenses they’ve face this year. Their fourth loss was to the #105 Penn State defense. George Mason 2nd game of a roady, but definite value with this defense. Northern Illinois’ pace and lack of defense should pretty much allow Southern to put up points whenever it wants tonight. Southern has always been built on defense, but they’re lacking in that department this year in terms of talent. They’ve put together a solid team defense, but it’s not the same what it was. The pace ranking don’t show it, but this is a team built to run with its guards and big men stepping out. Listed total might be a bit high but no reason SIU doesn’t hit 80+ here. North Texas plays fast, which makes an under scary, but the only time they’ve played a top 100 defense this year was Kansas and they scored 60 in that game. Florida Atlantic is playing a 5th straight road game to end their current road trip, while Depaul has played four straight at home. Neither of these offenses scare me and if Florida Atlantic is going to have a chance (which the line suggests), they gotta slow it down, which is what they will probably do to an extent considering the three other games they played this year against big names they scored 66, 50, and 61. Depaul matches up here against some pretty decent guards, but they shut down MKE’s guard slots and played well enough to win against Loyola CHI’s guard spots, so this one gets my under. Pretty big game for Illinois, already offered my thoughts. They got caught looking ahead to Missouri in the loss to UIC. They have too much depth and too solid of guard play too struggle against the press. They match up extremely well defensively too. My guess is you see an entire 360 of what you saw on Saturday. If they bring their A game, this is a rout. Definite value in anything under a possession. You need two things to beat Missouri, guards who can handle the ball and depth that can contribute. Illinois has more than enough of both, a ton of value here. Boise State and Portland should be a good game with some decent matchups. Boise’s defense sort of took a hit on the last road trip, so should be some focus there going on the road again. Portland’s been on the road for four straight and comes home here. This game smells of under, but Portland’s ability to knock down the three-ball and do it well is keeping me off. Revenge game for Oregon State as UIC travels across country after its biggest win in recent years against Illinois with a conference game on deck. Oregon State Coach Robinson has enough ties learn about Illinois-Chicago as he was a former assistant at Northwestern. Yes, they’re coming off a loss to George Washington, but GW never shoots 54% in a game. This is a perfect spot for a UIC letdown with travel added in.
Bets
Oregon State -5
Florida Atlantic/Depaul Under 142.5
DNP: Detroit +1, Northern Illinois/Southern Illinois Over 145
12/22 Notes Cont’d: Not really a big fan of Gonzaga at all this year, but not a good spot for Xavier with travel. Southern Miss has been pretty impressive this year scoring 75+ in every game aside from slow tempo South Florida. But, they’ve been on the road for three prior here before going to Mexico and East Tennessee State has been on the road for five prior before going to Mexico, so really no value with an over, especially with the early start time. The Mississippi State program is heading towards the floor. They were supposed to get a big boost with Bost and Sidney coming back into the lineup after missing the first semester, and while Sidney returned, something blew up at practice and he’s been suspended. And Bost has yet to return. Staying far away from Troy and Western Michigan after the up-and-down marathon yesterday. No real interest in any of these tournament games today. Siena and Georgia Tech are two teams who like to get up and down, but there are some injury concerns there. College of Charleston’s losses were to top 50 defenses and they get another one tonight in Clemson. This is really two contrasting styles of play and a spot that Clemson coach Brownell strives for. They have not looked good on the road with losses to South Carolina and Florida State, but this game will feature a bit more up and down, which can turn into a few more turnovers and more scoring opportunities. COC has 40 point revenge from last year’s meeting as well, and have a 1 point loss to Maryland and a 5 point loss to UNC (ACC schools like Clemson), both on the road. With that said, I still like Clemson. This is a spot that Brownell usually comes out ahead in contrasting styles of play. I thought the La Salle line was a tad bit short. Will probably take a shot at Furman here, as it’s a pretty big home game for them this year. South Carolina’s not really all that talented of a team. Yes, they’re 7-2 but they haven’t been overly impressive and I project them close to the bottom of the SEC in a rebuilding year where going on the road in any environment will be tough especially on a two game trek. The loss at Wofford last year and loss at College of Charleston really isn’t any different than this spot here other than SC being younger and in-experienced with no true scorer. Furman has been shooting the ball extremely well, and their offense is pretty smooth which really doesn’t help SC here in an up-and-down game if that’s what they choose to do. They lack some size, but the guards are experienced and the forwards are all-conference possibilities in the SOCON. Confidence is high, they’re shooting the ball extremely well, and they’re coming off a 3-0 road trip. Should be a winnable game.
Bets
Oregon State -5 (1 Unit)
Furman +2 (1 Unit)
Florida Atlantic/Depaul Under 142.5 (1 Unit)
UCF/Umass Under 142 (1 Unit)
DNP: East Carolina/George Washington Over 136, Detroit +1, Northern Illinois/Southern Illinois Over 145, Clemson +1.5
Only game I'm looking at making an additional play is Detroit +, got some time to look at it some more today before tip.
GL
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12/22 Notes Cont’d: Not really a big fan of Gonzaga at all this year, but not a good spot for Xavier with travel. Southern Miss has been pretty impressive this year scoring 75+ in every game aside from slow tempo South Florida. But, they’ve been on the road for three prior here before going to Mexico and East Tennessee State has been on the road for five prior before going to Mexico, so really no value with an over, especially with the early start time. The Mississippi State program is heading towards the floor. They were supposed to get a big boost with Bost and Sidney coming back into the lineup after missing the first semester, and while Sidney returned, something blew up at practice and he’s been suspended. And Bost has yet to return. Staying far away from Troy and Western Michigan after the up-and-down marathon yesterday. No real interest in any of these tournament games today. Siena and Georgia Tech are two teams who like to get up and down, but there are some injury concerns there. College of Charleston’s losses were to top 50 defenses and they get another one tonight in Clemson. This is really two contrasting styles of play and a spot that Clemson coach Brownell strives for. They have not looked good on the road with losses to South Carolina and Florida State, but this game will feature a bit more up and down, which can turn into a few more turnovers and more scoring opportunities. COC has 40 point revenge from last year’s meeting as well, and have a 1 point loss to Maryland and a 5 point loss to UNC (ACC schools like Clemson), both on the road. With that said, I still like Clemson. This is a spot that Brownell usually comes out ahead in contrasting styles of play. I thought the La Salle line was a tad bit short. Will probably take a shot at Furman here, as it’s a pretty big home game for them this year. South Carolina’s not really all that talented of a team. Yes, they’re 7-2 but they haven’t been overly impressive and I project them close to the bottom of the SEC in a rebuilding year where going on the road in any environment will be tough especially on a two game trek. The loss at Wofford last year and loss at College of Charleston really isn’t any different than this spot here other than SC being younger and in-experienced with no true scorer. Furman has been shooting the ball extremely well, and their offense is pretty smooth which really doesn’t help SC here in an up-and-down game if that’s what they choose to do. They lack some size, but the guards are experienced and the forwards are all-conference possibilities in the SOCON. Confidence is high, they’re shooting the ball extremely well, and they’re coming off a 3-0 road trip. Should be a winnable game.
Bets
Oregon State -5 (1 Unit)
Furman +2 (1 Unit)
Florida Atlantic/Depaul Under 142.5 (1 Unit)
UCF/Umass Under 142 (1 Unit)
DNP: East Carolina/George Washington Over 136, Detroit +1, Northern Illinois/Southern Illinois Over 145, Clemson +1.5
Only game I'm looking at making an additional play is Detroit +, got some time to look at it some more today before tip.
Established in 1995,
Meant to take UNLV but completely forgot. I wonder where K-St thinks their season is going w/out a pg (playing Pullen there and completely ruining their offense).
Go Bucks!
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