No cover of less than 5 points so if you had been playing this on a...say...a 4 point teaser, all 10 of them would have won today for you as well....pretty amazing day for sure.
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Ok..a HUGE Saturday in the books and locked down. Here are the results...
A PERFECT 10-0 AGAINST THE 7 POINT TEASER SPREAD!!!
No cover of less than 5 points so if you had been playing this on a...say...a 4 point teaser, all 10 of them would have won today for you as well....pretty amazing day for sure.
Reviewing statistics and doing some numerical housekeeping...this is the second day of the MS1 system.
The MS1 teaser won today, of course, and MS1 teasers are now 2-0. Other teasers today went 1-1 and were not pure system teasers so they are not counted in the record.
Going back over the entire slate of games today there were 105 lined games. Here are a few interesting numbers...
Percent of games won applying my base system and teasing the indicated team..........76.1%.
Percent of games won when selecting out for high probability winners....................77.8%.
Not much difference between those two and thus the reason we were having so much trouble winning at first....but then applying the home team qualifier criteria to the high probability winners...
10-0.....................100% winners~~!!
Taking into account the 3 winners from yesterday, the MS1 is a perfect 13-0 over 2 days...impressive by any standard.
Obviously, at some point, we will have a loser and it will wipe out a whole teaser. However, if our winning percentage is 90 to 95% long term...well, I don't think I need to tell you what that means. It's a long way from completely proven but I sure like the start.
When we get 100 game selections our sample size will start to have some level of significance...probably sometime in late February before March Madness. A timely prediction for sure.
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Reviewing statistics and doing some numerical housekeeping...this is the second day of the MS1 system.
The MS1 teaser won today, of course, and MS1 teasers are now 2-0. Other teasers today went 1-1 and were not pure system teasers so they are not counted in the record.
Going back over the entire slate of games today there were 105 lined games. Here are a few interesting numbers...
Percent of games won applying my base system and teasing the indicated team..........76.1%.
Percent of games won when selecting out for high probability winners....................77.8%.
Not much difference between those two and thus the reason we were having so much trouble winning at first....but then applying the home team qualifier criteria to the high probability winners...
10-0.....................100% winners~~!!
Taking into account the 3 winners from yesterday, the MS1 is a perfect 13-0 over 2 days...impressive by any standard.
Obviously, at some point, we will have a loser and it will wipe out a whole teaser. However, if our winning percentage is 90 to 95% long term...well, I don't think I need to tell you what that means. It's a long way from completely proven but I sure like the start.
When we get 100 game selections our sample size will start to have some level of significance...probably sometime in late February before March Madness. A timely prediction for sure.
Small board today and it just so happens that we have a perfect 3 selections for the MS1 system to make our one teaser for today. That is a bit surprising given the available 12 games. Typically, we only get 1 selection out of every 10 games available. So this is a very good day indeed.
Youngstown St. +10
Niagara +13
Western Illinois +12.5
I'm not sure how much these lines will be moving today, given the Super Bowl is dominating the money. They might not budge but it doesn't hurt to get your action in early.
I am playing all of these MS1 as max plays from now on...5 units across the board.
Best of luck today! Looking for a nice 3-0 today and a perfect 16-0 overall once the day concludes!
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Small board today and it just so happens that we have a perfect 3 selections for the MS1 system to make our one teaser for today. That is a bit surprising given the available 12 games. Typically, we only get 1 selection out of every 10 games available. So this is a very good day indeed.
Youngstown St. +10
Niagara +13
Western Illinois +12.5
I'm not sure how much these lines will be moving today, given the Super Bowl is dominating the money. They might not budge but it doesn't hurt to get your action in early.
I am playing all of these MS1 as max plays from now on...5 units across the board.
Best of luck today! Looking for a nice 3-0 today and a perfect 16-0 overall once the day concludes!
NNYHILLBILY...As I am sure you saw, yesterday when the selections went 10-0, only...and I say ONLY...5 of the 10 won straight up. While that is a nice thing and all and you probably would have made money had you played the money line on all 10 games with a flat bet on each one, that is not what my work is about. I am specifically focusing on teaser play. I can not make a recommendation regarding playing these games straight up...right now. Maybe later if I see a correlation or can pick out a pattern that suggests some games might be worth a straight up play...but I do not have that information yet.
Veteranpicker88...Yes, the 5 units is being played on that 3 team teaser selection. I am NOT putting 5 units on each team individually.
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NNYHILLBILY...As I am sure you saw, yesterday when the selections went 10-0, only...and I say ONLY...5 of the 10 won straight up. While that is a nice thing and all and you probably would have made money had you played the money line on all 10 games with a flat bet on each one, that is not what my work is about. I am specifically focusing on teaser play. I can not make a recommendation regarding playing these games straight up...right now. Maybe later if I see a correlation or can pick out a pattern that suggests some games might be worth a straight up play...but I do not have that information yet.
Veteranpicker88...Yes, the 5 units is being played on that 3 team teaser selection. I am NOT putting 5 units on each team individually.
After re reading my post, I can see where some confusion may have occurred. When I talk about a MS1 selection, that is a 3 team teaser that the system has produced for play.
My comment regarding playing "5 units across the board" probably would have been better stated as I will be playing all of the MS1 teaser selections from now on for 5 units each play.
Sorry for the confusing wording there.
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After re reading my post, I can see where some confusion may have occurred. When I talk about a MS1 selection, that is a 3 team teaser that the system has produced for play.
My comment regarding playing "5 units across the board" probably would have been better stated as I will be playing all of the MS1 teaser selections from now on for 5 units each play.
Just out of curiosity about the outright winners vs covers comparison idea, I went back and subjected the ten winners to some numerical evaluation to see what I could come up with and compared it to the 3 selections for today.
Now, the sample size is ridiculously small...10 from yesterday...and 3 games today, but I came up with a possible correlation that will need to be explored further with more and larger sample sizes. It might turn out to be significant in the future.
Basically, the numbers say that there is high probability that the 3 games today will not win outright. They will only cover.
Takes a lot of time to do this analysis so it will be something I put on the back burner for future work. Keep in mind that the sample size is severely small here so its just anecdotal and certainly just for informational purposes at this point.
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Just out of curiosity about the outright winners vs covers comparison idea, I went back and subjected the ten winners to some numerical evaluation to see what I could come up with and compared it to the 3 selections for today.
Now, the sample size is ridiculously small...10 from yesterday...and 3 games today, but I came up with a possible correlation that will need to be explored further with more and larger sample sizes. It might turn out to be significant in the future.
Basically, the numbers say that there is high probability that the 3 games today will not win outright. They will only cover.
Takes a lot of time to do this analysis so it will be something I put on the back burner for future work. Keep in mind that the sample size is severely small here so its just anecdotal and certainly just for informational purposes at this point.
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