Created a Model

I've been working on this for quite some time and I'm going to give it a trial run here. 

I'll explain a little, in essence what I'm trying to do is combine my seasons long Power Ranking number with a very current Power Ranking number. By doing this with a weighting system for individual components, I can come up with one number for the ranking on a particular game. 

I won't go into the back testing but I was encouraged enough to do a trial run here at Covers.

Let's get into today's plays and I'll explain as best I can as we move along.

February 16

Miami -2 (-105) CBB (rating +12)

George Washington +4.5 CBB (rating +8)

Minnesota (-145) NHL (rating +15)

Record all as one unit plays 

The rating is only good for the selected team, against it's opponent today. Example Miami is only rated a (+12) today against Louisville. It is not an overall ranking. 

The rating scale is (1-25) but I have been getting the best results with selections rated a (+8) or higher. 

There are excluding factors, as in betting lines. Lines past -6 are excluded, as is any Moneyline above (-150). 

Probably only the 3 plays today, let's see how this goes for a little while. 

Good luck guys 

Falcon Sports 

Hope it works out for you good luck

  Making us coin flip guys look bad….seriously, will be watching your success, always impressed by peeps that put so much work into it, good luck 

There are no such things, come on man

Slick

So assuming +25 would be the highest rated play?

Yes it would and that's very seldom and the times a rating could be that high, the line would probably disqualify it as a play. Let's say Gonzaga is playing Chicago St and the spread is Gonzaga -32... The rating on Gonzaga in that game is probably a (+25) but the line disqualifies it. 

I'm not using anything past -6 ATS or (-150) ML. The closer to a pickem with the higher rating, is what we look for or an Underdog like GW tonight, with a higher rating. 

16 February 2-1 (+0.55 units)

Getting this in very early

Thursday February 17

Kansas City -4 (-110) CBB (rating +16)

Oregon -4 (-110) CBB (rating +14)

Longwood  -3.5 (-110) CBB  (rating +13)

Creighton (+135) CBB (rating +7)

Washington  -1 (-115) NHL (rating +14)

Boston (+105) NHL (rating +11)

Columbus (+130) NHL (rating +7)

Today is actually my 6th day to play this but the research and lots of the work go back a long way. The ratings of (+7) or higher have performed the best. I have seven of them going tonight, so it's a big night for me.

Good luck guys

Falcon Sports 

Love your picks. Do you use a computer system/algorithm to help make your picks?

Yes I do. This is the culmination of a lot of work. I use a system to generate 2 Power rankings, I then combine them with a few components to generate a number.

I've watched the movie Moneyball countless times and this reminds me of the scene between Peter and Billy, where Peter says it's all about getting it down to one number, one ranking. 

Where this is unlike anything else, the number generated is only good for the matchup today. Example, Washington is rated a (+14) today but that's only a rating today against Philadelphia. If they played Detroit 3 days from now, the rating would be entirely different. 

Falcon Sports 

16 February 2-1 (+0.55 units)

17 February 5-2 (+3.55 units)

One unit plays each

Friday February 18

Purdue Ft. Wayne -5 (-110) CBB (rating +15)

Cornell (+105) CBB (rating +11)

Northern Kentucky (+100) CBB (rating +9)

Princeton -2 (-105) CBB (rating +9)

Dallas -1(+120) NHL (rating +12)

Good luck guys 

Falcon Sports 

Thanks, so far the back testing has gone well as has the real results. No reason not to be really encouraged. 

Falcon Sports 

Good luck with your picks today 

very nice job, well done

Thanks guys, I'm semi retired and won't do anything at all for another month. This model (The Falcon) has my undivided attention until at least mid March, I just wanted to run it publicly right here at covers. Put it under the lights, so to speak. 

Good luck guys 

Falcon Sports 

Well looks like its off to a good start.  So does that mean your semi retired from covers and wont post or are you going to continue to post so public can see? 

Good luck either way

Is it more like Cindy Crawford or Heidi Klum?

 c u in march slick

No no I'm just semi retired from work. Just posting on covers for entertainment purposes. Let's see how this model does, maybe I have something.

Falcon Sports 

                Appreciate you sharing it here, good stuff

Cool love to see how people come up with these models/systems and how they come out overall.  Thanks for sharing. Good luck

Thanks

Mine is automated, takes a very short time to run daily, we can all see how it does. My 5 plays tonight are listed above. I played them around midnight last night.

Falcon Sports 

You have three of my four CBB plays tonight...we're betting the roadies...let's wish us luck.

RT2

@MITM

Awesome results so far! That would be an interesting algorithm to see how it works. Algo dev is my next course in my masters pgm.

Taking a guess, you are an AF vet?

Thanks for sharing and good luck so all of us here on this forum can benefit from it.