Add: Houston +3.5 (this is strictly a "recent form" play as Houston has finally played the way I expected them to earlier in the season. I actually really like Tim Floyd and expect to have the worse end of this matchup from a coaching standpoint, but I can't get over how both teams finished the season and I really like getting 3.5 in a game that seems to be very close late. Again, I could be way off and again, if Houston happened to be up big at halftime I would consider a middle chance.)
Pending: UTSA/McNeese over 133.5 Houston +3.5
I also like OU ML and it seems I should be on Northern Illinois given how many times they have covered for me over the past few weeks, but I just can't pull the trigger. This might be all or I might find an angle on a late game I just can't pass up.
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Add: Houston +3.5 (this is strictly a "recent form" play as Houston has finally played the way I expected them to earlier in the season. I actually really like Tim Floyd and expect to have the worse end of this matchup from a coaching standpoint, but I can't get over how both teams finished the season and I really like getting 3.5 in a game that seems to be very close late. Again, I could be way off and again, if Houston happened to be up big at halftime I would consider a middle chance.)
Pending: UTSA/McNeese over 133.5 Houston +3.5
I also like OU ML and it seems I should be on Northern Illinois given how many times they have covered for me over the past few weeks, but I just can't pull the trigger. This might be all or I might find an angle on a late game I just can't pass up.
I like Houston too, especially since they have been playing so well of late, but equally dislike betting against a Tim Floyd team. This should be a close game going to the wire.
BOL, RT2
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I like Houston too, especially since they have been playing so well of late, but equally dislike betting against a Tim Floyd team. This should be a close game going to the wire.
Hey boys....ANYONE here that az st +9 is the lock of the year????
Alright, I'll bite. There is obviously no such thing as a lock. However, after watching Arizona State twice last week, I will agree that they are on a BIG upswing. They've got a couple of guys healthy and are playing with some confidence.
This is obviously reflected in the line. Additionally, this is a big stage (staples center) for both teams. So I think that actually plays into the underdogs favor as well.
Adding to my confidence is the fact that it looks like Stanford is a MAJOR public favorite and the line is falling. Now I'm not a big conspiracy / trap line guy; but I do believe this is the books protecting themselves from a lot of money flowing in on AZ ST. +10 or more.
But, given all of that, there is still a decent chance that Stanford runs them out of the building. So play what you like and only what you can afford to lose.
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Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyFlops:
Hey boys....ANYONE here that az st +9 is the lock of the year????
Alright, I'll bite. There is obviously no such thing as a lock. However, after watching Arizona State twice last week, I will agree that they are on a BIG upswing. They've got a couple of guys healthy and are playing with some confidence.
This is obviously reflected in the line. Additionally, this is a big stage (staples center) for both teams. So I think that actually plays into the underdogs favor as well.
Adding to my confidence is the fact that it looks like Stanford is a MAJOR public favorite and the line is falling. Now I'm not a big conspiracy / trap line guy; but I do believe this is the books protecting themselves from a lot of money flowing in on AZ ST. +10 or more.
But, given all of that, there is still a decent chance that Stanford runs them out of the building. So play what you like and only what you can afford to lose.
Not particularly - I grabbed as soon as I could get it with reduced juice (Believe it or not it opened on Betonline at 129), but it is my belief that the opening line (the opening line for me on 5dimes) was way off given situational factors, angles, and the propensity of points at the southland conference now that its in Katy
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Quote Originally Posted by Sauced:
Is there still value in UTSA over 137?
Not particularly - I grabbed as soon as I could get it with reduced juice (Believe it or not it opened on Betonline at 129), but it is my belief that the opening line (the opening line for me on 5dimes) was way off given situational factors, angles, and the propensity of points at the southland conference now that its in Katy
Houston never trailed the from the 10:00 mark of the first half until the start of overtime and then missed 7 shots from the field (including a dunk and two layups) and misses 2 free throws to blow the cover - pretty sick and unreal sometimes, best you can do is be on the right side and hope to not get unlucky
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Quote Originally Posted by mtndew146:
I thought Houston had this...moving on
Houston never trailed the from the 10:00 mark of the first half until the start of overtime and then missed 7 shots from the field (including a dunk and two layups) and misses 2 free throws to blow the cover - pretty sick and unreal sometimes, best you can do is be on the right side and hope to not get unlucky
I appreciate your replies, I must say that I don't think we are speaking the same language only because I'm coming from a basketball playing and coaching background as well so I'm not basing this plays, angles, trends solely on statistical analysis (for many reasons).
First, I actually don't want years and years data and don't care if my sample size is big or not. If the stats we are discussing don't involve the players, and/or coaches, and/or offensive/defensive philosophy etc. on the current team, I'm not interested in the data (for me these numbers just lack significance, again that is my preference).
Next, you mention that you can "expect" a team's performance to dip to .368 (which would still be good for 65th in the country, still well about the NCAA average), but again this numbers are in a vacuum because they don't factor in their opponent's defense, venue, (and even current/recent "form" of UTSA's offense and McNeese's defense).
In the most simple terms, this current UTSA team has made 266 of 670 (39.4%) this season. Last season (with almost exactly the same squad), UTSA made 234 of 667 (.35.1%)(and we could have "expected" an improvement as they returned all by one player from last year's squad and stayed in the same system, so an improvement is no surprise (but of course could have been negated if Southland conference defenses had improved significantly).
I only mention this because you stated in your original post that UTSA has shot "a crazy %" much of the year. Actually, they have shot the ball very well for two consecutive seasons (with over 1,300 3's as our sample size), for me, that is plenty of data to say that it isn't a "crazy %" but the type of percentage you can "expect" them to shoot with this current offensive system, with these players, and against a typical Southland Conference opponent like McNeese (so say nothing of the fact that UTSA has shot well in this venue). To suggest that (in this one particular specific game) that you "expect" a team's shooting to regress (on this one particular game) when it took 60+ games to accumulate this data is pretty surprising, especially when you take the other "basketball" factors into account.
Again, this is basketball and anything can happen (UTSA shot 15% in its first Southland conference game of the season and shot 57% from 3 in its last Southland conference game) and this play isn't based solely on how UTSA has shot the ball over the past three seasons, its just a glimpse into what numbers, angles, and data I like to look at when considering a play. I'll be the first to admit that the last 5 games that each team played this season factor greatly into the decision to bet the over (and I believe that is a proper way to go about it).
Thanks for your comment and please chime in any time in my threads - good luck to you today. And trust me, I won't consider you or me "right or wrong" based on what happens in this ONE game tonight, that I can assure you.
Again, this isn't statistical analysis at its purest form, but also taking other basketball factors into account (which I personally believe is very reasonable).
fair enough. good luck to you.
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Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
I appreciate your replies, I must say that I don't think we are speaking the same language only because I'm coming from a basketball playing and coaching background as well so I'm not basing this plays, angles, trends solely on statistical analysis (for many reasons).
First, I actually don't want years and years data and don't care if my sample size is big or not. If the stats we are discussing don't involve the players, and/or coaches, and/or offensive/defensive philosophy etc. on the current team, I'm not interested in the data (for me these numbers just lack significance, again that is my preference).
Next, you mention that you can "expect" a team's performance to dip to .368 (which would still be good for 65th in the country, still well about the NCAA average), but again this numbers are in a vacuum because they don't factor in their opponent's defense, venue, (and even current/recent "form" of UTSA's offense and McNeese's defense).
In the most simple terms, this current UTSA team has made 266 of 670 (39.4%) this season. Last season (with almost exactly the same squad), UTSA made 234 of 667 (.35.1%)(and we could have "expected" an improvement as they returned all by one player from last year's squad and stayed in the same system, so an improvement is no surprise (but of course could have been negated if Southland conference defenses had improved significantly).
I only mention this because you stated in your original post that UTSA has shot "a crazy %" much of the year. Actually, they have shot the ball very well for two consecutive seasons (with over 1,300 3's as our sample size), for me, that is plenty of data to say that it isn't a "crazy %" but the type of percentage you can "expect" them to shoot with this current offensive system, with these players, and against a typical Southland Conference opponent like McNeese (so say nothing of the fact that UTSA has shot well in this venue). To suggest that (in this one particular specific game) that you "expect" a team's shooting to regress (on this one particular game) when it took 60+ games to accumulate this data is pretty surprising, especially when you take the other "basketball" factors into account.
Again, this is basketball and anything can happen (UTSA shot 15% in its first Southland conference game of the season and shot 57% from 3 in its last Southland conference game) and this play isn't based solely on how UTSA has shot the ball over the past three seasons, its just a glimpse into what numbers, angles, and data I like to look at when considering a play. I'll be the first to admit that the last 5 games that each team played this season factor greatly into the decision to bet the over (and I believe that is a proper way to go about it).
Thanks for your comment and please chime in any time in my threads - good luck to you today. And trust me, I won't consider you or me "right or wrong" based on what happens in this ONE game tonight, that I can assure you.
Again, this isn't statistical analysis at its purest form, but also taking other basketball factors into account (which I personally believe is very reasonable).
Kine, if/when you can get around to it, I'd appreciate your take on Colorado State/TCU tomorrow. Thanks for all of your posts...you really know your stuff.
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Kine, if/when you can get around to it, I'd appreciate your take on Colorado State/TCU tomorrow. Thanks for all of your posts...you really know your stuff.
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just givin a lil help 
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